Bad feeling about labor unrest

[Frezo]

I really don't care as long as there are still games. That's when all of this garbage goes away and coaches coach and players play. If there is a lockout, oh well. They might lose me. Yes, big deal, but I consider myself an average fan. They will lose other fans. This is a terrific country. There will be something else to do. Years ago I was an avid hockey fan. They lost me at the lockout and I never went back. If there is no football, there will be something else to do and the longer the lockout goes on, the better that "something else" becomes.

They, the owners and players, better make sure they are paying attention. This isn't about them. It's about me and the rest of the fans. We decide the future of football and it will be based on their actions.

Right now there is a season in front of us. It's going to be one heck of a season too and I'm into it.:woot:

 

[PATRIOT64]

On Sirius today,they said VERY few decent FAs will be available next year and could be in trouble for the whole 2011 season.

 

[eom]

On Sirius today,they said VERY few decent FAs will be available next year

dude, did you not read my 2010 UFA thread?

 

[fester]

To me it is not that surprising. Let's take your three year career as a min-payment guy, special teamer and occassional contributor. During that three years, he'll make about 1 million dollars gross, and about $500,000 net after taxes, agents fees, insurance etc.

This player is probably 23 to 25 years old. He is in an environment where spending $1,000 a week is barely keeping up with the Jones so there goes another $150,000 at least, throw in another $30K per year in actual living expenses, and he is down to 250K --- and that is enough to buy (most of) a decent house, start a business, or provide a cushion for the first couple of years out of the league --- but choose only one and hope that it was a good choice.

And knowing how I was at 23 to 25, good choices were not always assured.

Unfathomable to me. Not disputing you, I believe it, but how can someone who has ... what's the NFL average career? 3 years? ... three years to earn a bunch of money before getting dumped back into the real world not bank a good part of that earnings?

What a shock it much be to go from spending thousands a week to looking under the sofa for quarters for gas money.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I'm with Andy as far as the probability of a lockout goes, in this economy anyway. Even in the best of times a capless NFL has many pros and cons but given the timing here, uncapped '10 has the potential to become VERY polarizing within the league and also with public reaction.

Good thread, it's definitely a timely topic and definitely a concerning one too. Personally I'm finding just this long offseason to be almost more than I can bear ; most of us would probably need an official support group if there's a lockout:attention:

 

[Pats726]

I agree with Andy on this one as well...I don't want to see it but the gut feeling is there. I am MORE hopeful though with Smith, despite what comments he has made about "preparing for war."...I have heard him in interviews after that and he sounded a bit more wanting to get started with all of this as opposed to building up walls. That was last week when he met before he met with Goodell. He said that he wanted to get to work on things with the Commish. I THINK even though he may not understand the union and football, he does understand that they needed to get started on this. He also stressed the importance of football and the fan, seemingly as to try and get fans to oppose a lockout which I think the owners want. I am not sure why they do, for they will cook the goose with a lockout...they are just too dumb to really understand that.
Whether Smith is that guy who will get it done or will try to stand up and fight the owners, football may rest on his actions. For some reason, the poison pills do not seem that toxic now and many owners may feel a profit can be made from the low floor of salaries. I THINK it's really poor that so many media people do not bring that up that it's no ceiling and no floor...and that THAT is significant.
If the CBA is not done in a year..the uncapped year will arrive and the CBA will be gone...I truly believe that once the toothpaste is out gone..there is NO way it will go back in.
What is really driving my pessimism is that it's these rookies that are trying to get it done..Smith who may be sharp in many ways may miss some of the real intrcacies of a CBA and the subtle ways around it and Goodell, to me is just a clueless buffoon, who has an ego that he could crush the goose and think it was the best thing in the world. If we hear of some progress even in the next few months, I might be more optimisitc, but if it's one of not starting and putting everything off, I fear the worst.
A work stoppage now, I think may really do damage the NFL.

 

[spacecrime]

And knowing how I was at 23 to 25, good choices were not always assured.

That's the understatement of the year for me

 

[spacecrime]

get fans to oppose a lockout which I think the owners want. I am not sure why they do, for they will cook the goose with a lockout...they are just too dumb to really understand that.

There are a couple owners who seem less than cerebral to me, but mostly they have amassed a huge fortune by being business savvy. When a guy like Kraft says that an uncapped year has a lot of good things going for it and may be necessary for the health of the league, you gotta at least listen to him.

They are businessmen and will make more money if the league is in good shape, but as businessmen, they are thinking long term.

Sometimes you have to absorb a little pain or take an initial hit for a long term gain. Having someone stick a knife in your gut seems like a horrible idea, but if you have cancerous growths than need to be removed, then the knife is just something you endure to get what you want.

Like the Johnny Cash song, you've got to prime the pump.

I think Kraft knows what he is doing, and most of the owners as well.

We will see. It's going to be an interesting two years.

I guarantee it!

 

[cavtroop]

Baseball lost me with the strike.

Hockey lost me with the lockout (though I'm slowly getting back into it just now)

A football stoppage will probably cause me to cut way back when it returns, too. Focus on golf, and family instead.

 

[Pats726]

There are a couple owners who seem less than cerebral to me, but mostly they have amassed a huge fortune by being business savvy. When a guy like Kraft says that an uncapped year has a lot of good things going for it and may be necessary for the health of the league, you gotta at least listen to him.
They are businessmen and will make more money if the league is in good shape, but as businessmen, they are thinking long term.

I agree Kraft is quite smart...no doubt at all about it...but I really do not get the lockout and what THAt will accomplish. Take away a game basically..or a tool to crush the union? I don't see at all how that helps. The uncapped year is one thing..and I am sure owners will do fine..But what will it do to the sport?? The owners MAY do very fine, but jill the sport.

 

[Ring 6]

There are a couple owners who seem less than cerebral to me, but mostly they have amassed a huge fortune by being business savvy. When a guy like Kraft says that an uncapped year has a lot of good things going for it and may be necessary for the health of the league, you gotta at least listen to him.

They are businessmen and will make more money if the league is in good shape, but as businessmen, they are thinking long term.

Sometimes you have to absorb a little pain or take an initial hit for a long term gain. Having someone stick a knife in your gut seems like a horrible idea, but if you have cancerous growths than need to be removed, then the knife is just something you endure to get what you want.

Like the Johnny Cash song, you've got to prime the pump.

I think Kraft knows what he is doing, and most of the owners as well.

We will see. It's going to be an interesting two years.

I guarantee it!

A lockout ABSOLUTELY favors the owners.
As someone mentioned the owners are businessmen who think longeterm. They also can afford to think longterm and players cannot. Losing a year of your career as a player is huge, there are a very limited amount of years. As an owner you can get back what you missed out on. Something like 70% of the revenues of each team go to the players salaries under the cap, so its not like there are enormous expenses to the teams to not have a season. You can surely argue that the loss incurred by not having a season is well worth cutting that 70% to 60 or 50....
The other problem is that the union by its nature has an internal conflict.
The union represents all players and all do not have the same needs and motives.
Do you negotiate more money for rookies?, higher minimums?, more money for top guys?, do you get more money for the best of the best or protect the fringe guys? Do you negotiate 65 man rosters to have more players getting paychecks at the expense of the 53 who would anyway? There are built in connundrums to the union representing all players.

On top of all of that is the Anti-trust exemption. I think the owners would be happy to sit around as long as it took to break the union, and let players come back as they wish as non-union guys who make good money but not stupid money. I dont think that ever happens though becuase of the anti-trust exemption.

To me, in a perfect world(from the owners standpoint) the owners lock out the players then offer 53 jobs called football player that pay $300,000 per year. Take it or leave it. Play for $300,000 (which puts you in the top 1% of all american wage earners) or chose another profession. There is absolutely no question that although you may lose a season, maybe even 2, players would buckle, and accept that job. What is their alternative?
Do that and you could sell tickets for $5, jerseys for $20. Someone who is good at playing football for a living makes $300,000, there would be no need for free agency. Without the anti-trust exemption being an issue, I think this would already have happened. With the antitrust exemption I think it never will.

 

[fester]

Okay, the problem on that is 2-fold --- young high talent football players are good enough atheletes that the 18 year old multi-sport star who would normally go to a major D-1 school to play football is now electing to sign that minor league baseball contract (the inverse Tom Brady) so in a few years, the quality of the talent pool massively decreases.

Secondly, you are assuming no competition. Your scenario only works if there is no other legitimate near substitute. Now what happens when the top 30 players in the NFL (all 7+ million a year guys) decide that this situation sucks and they will now play for the Replacement Football League for 3 million a year a piece --- you telling me that the depleted NFL whose "Star" quarterbacks in your system are the Tyler Thigpens, JaMarcus Russells and Chris Simms of the world will do anywhere near as well (financially) as a league whose "Star" QBs are Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlesberger and Drew Brees?

Throw in the fact that the Replacement Football League can now compete for college talent against the non-unionized NFL (as the draft is only permissable with union agreement) and your strategy is a great way to see a new major league introduced fairly quickly.

A lockout ABSOLUTELY favors the owners.

To me, in a perfect world(from the owners standpoint) the owners lock out the players then offer 53 jobs called football player that pay $300,000 per year. Take it or leave it. Play for $300,000 (which puts you in the top 1% of all american wage earners) or chose another profession. There is absolutely no question that although you may lose a season, maybe even 2, players would buckle, and accept that job. What is their alternative?
Do that and you could sell tickets for $5, jerseys for $20. Someone who is good at playing football for a living makes $300,000, there would be no need for free agency. Without the anti-trust exemption being an issue, I think this would already have happened. With the antitrust exemption I think it never will.

 

[Ring 6]

Okay, the problem on that is 2-fold --- young high talent football players are good enough atheletes that the 18 year old multi-sport star who would normally go to a major D-1 school to play football is now electing to sign that minor league baseball contract (the inverse Tom Brady) so in a few years, the quality of the talent pool massively decreases.

Secondly, you are assuming no competition. Your scenario only works if there is no other legitimate near substitute. Now what happens when the top 30 players in the NFL (all 7+ million a year guys) decide that this situation sucks and they will now play for the Replacement Football League for 3 million a year a piece --- you telling me that the depleted NFL whose "Star" quarterbacks in your system are the Tyler Thigpens, JaMarcus Russells and Chris Simms of the world will do anywhere near as well (financially) as a league whose "Star" QBs are Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlesberger and Drew Brees?

Throw in the fact that the Replacement Football League can now compete for college talent against the non-unionized NFL (as the draft is only permissable with union agreement) and your strategy is a great way to see a new major league introduced fairly quickly.

Good points. As I said that is in a perfect world for ownership.
In reality, such a plan would work short-term, which just illustrates the hammer the owners have if they are willing to use it.

I also disagree that professional athletes are interchangable between sports. How many 6'5" 320lbs baseball players have you seen?
The emrgence of another league would be a danger to such a plan, but far from certain. You would be asking businessmen to compete against the NFL paying 300,000 a year by paying 3,000,000 That isn't good business.
The point being that if there wasn't an NFL, 90% of these players would be making less than 50k a year. There is no question the system has been created where they are overpaid. I seriously doubt that if the NFL ended tomorrow a new league would spring up and pay a guy 30million to draft him.

 

[spacecrime]

I agree Kraft is quite smart...do doubt at all about it...but I really do not get the lockout and what THAt will accomplish. Take away a game basically..or a tool to crush the unoion? I don't see at all how that helps. The uncapped year is one thing..and I am sure owners will do fine..But what will it do to the sport?? The owners MAY do very fine, but jill the sport.

I don't see it either, but what I don't know about business dealings and strategies would fill a book.

But I do know that if you take any long term strategy, and analyze each step, most steps won't make sense, and seem to be a move in the wrong direction, whether is it feints with the military, or running a play that doesn't work twice to set up a big play later in the game. Even prehistoric man understood this, saving 10% of a grain crop, even in a very bad year, to use as seed for the next year. If they had internet back then, mediots would be complaining, "Why are people going hungry? There is plenty of grain in the storage cave."


FWIW, I don't think a lockout will kill the sport. The NFL isn't the NFL. Most of us love football to much for that. Model and Irsay didn't kill the sport in Cleveland and Baltimore, even though their greed (and sneakiness on hte part of Irsay) took football out of those cities for years.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't see it either, but what I don't know about business dealings and strategies would fill a book.

But I do know that if you take any long term strategy, and analyze each step, most steps won't make sense, and seem to be a move in the wrong direction, whether is it feints with the military, or running a play that doesn't work twice to set up a big play later in the game. Even prehistoric man understood this, saving 10% of a grain crop, even in a very bad year, to use as seed for the next year. If they had internet back then, mediots would be complaining, "Why are people going hungry? There is plenty of grain in the storage cave."


FWIW, I don't think a lockout will kill the sport. The NFL isn't the NFL. Most of us love football to much for that. Model and Irsay didn't kill the sport in Cleveland and Baltimore, even though their greed (and sneakiness on hte part of Irsay) took football out of those cities for years.

The only thing that can kill the NFL is the NFLK itself, i.e. if it went broke.
A strike or lockout would harm the NFL in the short term. Some fans would be angry, some fringe fans would leave for good. But after it was over (and I think even a 2 or 3 year stoppage would be overcome) the fans would come back, maybe slowly, but they would come back.
Think about it. If the NFL disappered for 3 years then came back, would you not watch it?
I think there is a feeling that the league owes fans something, but at the end of the day, you are a fan of the NFL because it is uniquely entertaining and always will be.

 

[Pats726]

Think about it. If the NFL disappered for 3 years then came back, would you not watch it?
I think there is a feeling that the league owes fans something, but at the end of the day, you are a fan of the NFL because it is uniquely entertaining and always will be.

Andy....THAT last statement MIGHT be true to some, but might not to others. There was a time when I thought baseball and basketball were entertaining...in fact I was more a real baseball fan growing up...(NOT a Red Sox fan)...and the Celts?? They were the BEST then!! And there were times I felt that I would always be real fans of the sports..but over time that has changed. Is the NFL uniquely entertaining? At this point in time it is...and really a lot closer to the way football was years ago...more so than other sports. But I do think that could change and 2-3 years MIGHT do that. I hope that does not happen, because I have been a Patriot fan from the start, BUT? Who really knows what the NFL could do with poos leadership.

 

[cavtroop]

Andy....THAT last statement MIGHT be true to some, but might not to others. There was a time when I thought baseball and basketball were entertaining...in fact I was more a real baseball fan growing up...(NOT a Red Sox fan)...and the Celts?? They were the BEST then!! And there were times I felt that I would always be real fans of the sports..but over time that has changed. Is the NFL uniquely entertaining? At this point in time it is...and really a lot closer to the way football was years ago...more so than other sports. But I do think that could change and 2-3 years MIGHT do that. I hope that does not happen, because I have been a Patriot fan from the start, BUT? Who really knows what the NFL could do with poos leadership.

One of the main things that makes the NFL uniquely entertaining is the agreement they have with the CBA - the draft, free agency, the salary cap, etc. Get rid of that, you completely change the game, and it turns into baseball, with the have and the have nots. That doesn't interest me much.

 

[Pats726]

One of the main things that makes the NFL uniquely entertaining is the agreement they have with the CBA - the draft, free agency, the salary cap, etc. Get rid of that, you completely change the game, and it turns into baseball, with the have and the have nots. That doesn't interest me much.

I agree with you how the structure really makes it the GAME it is as well as what is happening on the field. You are correct about baseball...and basketball...they ruined it. And I went to tons of those games growing up. How could I ever not care about those sports?? It's easy..it's sad..the leagues did not care at all and their popularity has died down. Football is at a peak now...and going strong. Have Goodell and others not see this and take a LOT for granted and they will cook that goose like no one has ever seen!!! I mean how could "America's pastime" go down the drain?? Leave it to blind arrogance and these fools will do the same to football.

 

[fester]

As I stated in my initial response, I would expect business men to take a two or three risk if they could reasonably expect to sign Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and NAME YOUR BIG STAR for $3,000,000 a year to destroy your rump NFL in ratings and popularity when the NFL is trying to pump up 2nd string talent as first level stars.

Under your scenario, all player contracts are abrogated, all collective bargaining is null and void, so players will attempt to sort themselves out as best they can. And if I was advising a first level star, I would recommend that if they saw a couple of other first level stars change leagues to greener pastures, to also change leagues.

Your rump-NFL would soon run into the XFL problem -- all of its 'stars' would not be starters in the other league. It would have significant institutional advantages over the XFL (better stadiums, a couple years of a national TV deal, an established fan base), but the crux of the problem is similar.

As far as interchangability --- current players are not really interchangable between sports; at this point they are way too specialized and have not been able to devote another five or eight years of practice in hitting or throw a nasty curve ball. However the 17 or 18 year old kid who is more of an athelete than a football player has not spent five to ten years throwing on another 50 pounds of muscle so he is far more convertible to baseball or basketball or to be the hockey goon....

Good points. As I said that is in a perfect world for ownership.
In reality, such a plan would work short-term, which just illustrates the hammer the owners have if they are willing to use it.

I also disagree that professional athletes are interchangable between sports. How many 6'5" 320lbs baseball players have you seen?
The emrgence of another league would be a danger to such a plan, but far from certain. You would be asking businessmen to compete against the NFL paying 300,000 a year by paying 3,000,000 That isn't good business.
The point being that if there wasn't an NFL, 90% of these players would be making less than 50k a year. There is no question the system has been created where they are overpaid. I seriously doubt that if the NFL ended tomorrow a new league would spring up and pay a guy 30million to draft him.

 

[Frezo]

I agree with you how the structure really makes it the GAME it is as well as what is happening on the field. You are correct about baseball...and basketball...they ruined it. And I went to tons of those games growing up. How could I ever not care about those sports?? It's easy..it's sad..the leagues did not care at all and their popularity has died down. Football is at a peak now...and going strong. Have Goodell and others not see this and take a LOT for granted and they will cook that goose like no one has ever seen!!! I mean how could "America's pastime" go down the drain?? Leave it to blind arrogance and these fools will do the same to football.

Should the talks get heated we will see lawyer Goodell against lawyer Smith. This is a huge OH NO potential. Legal egos better take a back seat in this critical juncture.