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Another CNNSI draft prospect profile

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mayoclinic, Mar 23, 2009.

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  1. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's another interesting draft profile from CNNSI:

    Position: OLB
    Class: Sr
    Ht., Wt.: 6-2.5, 256
    40 Time: 4.67

    BIO: Two-year starter awarded All-Conference honors as a senior after posting 49/10.5/8. Totaled a career-best 93 tackles as a junior.

    POSITIVES: Hard-working, aggressive linebacker with terrific instincts. Diagnoses the action and quickly locates the ball. Strong at the point, defeats blocks and wraps up tackling. Takes good angles to the play, gets depth on drops and displays skill in zone coverage. Lined up in a three-point stance and effective off the edge.

    NEGATIVES: Not an explosive or quick defender. Marginal skill in pursuit.

    ANALYSIS: A prospect who's done everything asked of him. A passionate football player with a good degree of upside potential at the next level. Needs to fine-tune his game yet could quickly find his way into a starting lineup.


    The player: Bobby Carpenter, OLB, from 2006. CNNSI gave him a higher grade than they had given DeMarcus Ware the year before (4.08 vs. 3.92), rating him as a 1st round prospect:

    SI.com - 2006 NFL Draft - Bobby Carpenter
  2. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    I'm not sure why you posted this particular profile. It's kind of ironic that the Cowboys drafted both of these guys with high draft picks. But I think the only thing you're proving here is that CNNSI profiles are not a good resource for identifying prospects.
  3. jays52

    jays52 Rookie

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    It illustrates the importance of explosion.
  4. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :nono: Mike Mamula had explosion! :eek: It must be a very bad thing. :(
  5. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Carpenter was probably the most popular choice for the Pats at #21 on draft boards in 2006. He came from a "big time" program, but his weaknesses were somewhat disguised by playing alongside other talented players. He had those wonderful "bloodlines" that Belichick supposedly covets. Sound familiar?

    I don't think CNNSI is alone in being less than perfect at identifying prospects. My point in posting these 2 profiles was to show (1) that Ware was not considered a sure-fire 1st round pick a month or so before the 2005 draft (his "red flags" included playing in a lesser conference and being something of a "workout warrior"), and (2) that picking high-character kids from big programs with LB experience and great "bloodlines" isn't necessarily a great recipe for success.
  6. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    So your two points are that guys that aren't surefire first rounders can still be pro bowlers and guys who seem to have the perfect recipe can still be unsuccessful? Shocker
  7. MetalBleachers

    MetalBleachers Rookie

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    Pick this Carpenter kid! it's not too late! :woot:
  8. jays52

    jays52 Rookie

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    Which is why you build franchises around quality football players like Matt Roth and Jason Babin!
  9. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sorry to disappoint you. I've always claimed that it was an inexact science at best, and don't think there are any guarantees regarding particular prospects succeeding.

    I wouldn't have called Carpenter the "perfect recipe" by any means. There were lots of signs that he might not translate to a great pro, but everyone loved his "bloodlines" and "big time program" pedigree. I think it is instructive to compare Ware and Carpenter's pre-draft evaluation to some of this year's prospects:

    - Clint Sintim - nice size, 4 year solid track record, but like Carpenter somewhat slow and limited athletically. People assume he will automatically be successful in BB's system because he played in the 3-4 for Al Groh. Not necessarily true.
    - Clay Matthews - smaller than Carpenter and more athletic, but like him a guy from a big program with good "bloodlines" whose weaknesses may be masked by playing alongside other strong prospects.
    - Connor Barwin - being questioned as a legitimate 1st round prospect because of his lack of experience and questions as to whether his workout numbers will translate to the field.
  10. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ack! Now I'm confused. Should I be :rofl: or shaking in fear and trepidation :cry2:?

    I'll have to ask my cat where my two-headed nickel went.
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2009
  11. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    You need to weed out the players with an inverse relationship between bank account and on-field production. The only real explosion for Mamula was his taxable income.
  12. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Point well taken. You are underlining the importance of evaluating players for what they actually do on the field. Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury of obtaining game films of these prospects and evaluating them. So we resort to other less significant metrics - such as Wonderlich scores, 40 times, and bloodlines.

    I think it's ironic that we are arguing the merits of DeMarcus Ware and Mike Mamula. Both of these guys are poster boys for either side of the argument. In reality though, there are at least 3 other players in this draft who potentially fit the profile of a DeMarcus Ware - Brown, Maybin, and English. All 3 are undersized DEs who may end up being 3-4 OLBs. All 3 are exceptional pass rushers. All 3 have more experience than Barwin (in most cases significantly more). All 3 were ranked as 1st round prospects before the combine. So which one is the next DeMarcus Ware? If you ask me, the chances that either of them turns into a Ware type of player are low. And the risk associated with picking either of them and converting to OLB is fairly high.

    If I were to compare Barwin to those 3 players, I would put it like this. His chances of evolving into the next Ware are as good as any of the other 3 (i.e. mediocre). However, his chances of complete failure are higher due to his lack of experience and lack of information available to make a valid evaluation on him. For those same reasons, the probability is high that his evolution as a starter will be longer - probably too long for a 1st round draft pick.
  13. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not sure I agree with you. First, none of those guys (Everett Brown, Aaron Maybin, and Larry English) has much "experience" at 3-4 OLB. Barwin has more experience playing in space than any of those 3 guys because of his basketball and TE background. All 3 of those guys have big danger flags about playing 3-4 OLB for the Pats:

    - Maybin is quite light, having played around 230# when he put up his great numbers for Penn St. At the combine and his pro day, as he has put on weight he has lost significant speed. It is not clear that he can maintain the weight necessary to be effective. He is almost exclusively a pass rusher, and has not showed that he can maintain the point of attack, play the run, or cover.

    - Brown is quite short at 6' 1 1/2". None of the Pats successful 3-4 OLBs have been anywhere near that short.

    - English is also a bit on the short side at 6'2", and his agility numbers suggest that he lacks some of the quickness and burst necessary to translate his effectiveness at the next level. He has put up nice numbers over 4 years playing in a lesser conference. It's not at all clear that he can play in space or cover.

    Personally, I'll take the athletic shot-blocker and former TE when it comes to moving to the ball, altering or deflecting passes, and covering TEs, given that none of the 4 has ever played 3-4 OLB to any significant degree.
  14. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady Rookie

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    I like Barwin and will be thrilled if we get him but it seems like you are molding the argument about these past prospects to make it seem like Barwin is better instead of just saying why you like Barwin like in this post.

    Cant we just stick to his pedigree and not get caught up with some similarities he might have to some drafted a few years ago that suceeded or that other guys can be compared to busts. I am sure there are plenty of guys with similar stories to Ware that failed and guys like Carpenter that succeeded.
  15. jays52

    jays52 Rookie

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    Consider this hypothetical situation:

    In the fall of 2002, Antonio Gates is contacted by the football coaches at Kent State and is asked to play tight end for his senior season. He was recruited by Nick Saban as a linebacker, but doesn't have much experience as a collegiate tight end. Being a solid guy and recieving permission from the Basketball coach, he decides to play football. Gates then goes on to catch 70 balls and 16 touchdowns, in the process establishing himself as an elite TE prospect for the 2003 NFL draft. He is invited to the combine where he puts up silly athletic numbers. Three weeks later at his pro day, Gates improves on nearly all times and is flawless in his interviews with TE coaches throughout the league.

    What are the positives? Prototypical size, highly athletic, highly productive, demonstrates improvement from test to test and shows aptitude in understanding the game.

    The knocks? Low level of competition, relatively small sample size, inexperienced player, potential "workout warrior".

    While the similarities are everywhere, the difference between a workout warrior negative connotation and the hypothetical situation presented is that the athletic measurables are commiserate with the production.
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    First, comparison to past draft picks and their success moving to similar positions in the NFL is valid. Second, the people arguing against Barwin aren't discussing his positives, they're pointing to Mike Mamula, Manny Lawson, and Bobby Carpenter and saying 'see, they sucked and Barwin will too.' There are plenty of posts here saying this is what Barwin brings to the table, but the discussions swirl around the negative - we are talking NE fans with their Red Sox-itis here.
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2009
  17. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yeh, but his team never won a Super Bowl. :snob:
  18. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    :woot: You are a genius.
  19. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    Michael Johnson? :rolleyes:
  20. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    I wasn't in love with Carpenter as a prospect and I didn't think we'd take him. Is there a point to this?
  21. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So here's NFLDraftcountdown's profile on Everett Brown which came out today:

    Everette Brown
    Defensive End
    Junior
    Florida St.
    Height: 6-11/2
    Weight: 256
    40-Time: 4.73

    Official Bio

    Strengths:
    Excellent athleticism...Great speed and quickness...Explosive with a burst...Possesses a terrific first step...Agile with good change of direction and balance...Has big hands and uses them well...Has a varied repertoire of pass rush moves...Can be effective off the edge or inside...Good strength...Has a great motor...Does a nice job in pursuit and closes in a hurry...Offers some positional versatility...Strong work ethic...A team leader...Very productive...Still has considerable upside.

    Weaknesses:
    Does not have the ideal height or bulk that you look for...Might have to make a position change at the next level...Does not hold up well against the run...Pretty raw and wasn't used much in coverage...A little inconsistent..Frame is close to being maxed out...Marginal instincts and awareness...Poor program pedigree...Limited starting experience.

    Notes:
    Could be either a 4-3 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker in the pros...Redshirted in 2005...Saw extensive action as a backup early in his career but did not emerge as a full-time starter until his junior year...Garnered a number of 2nd Team All-American honors in '08...Named 1st Team All-ACC and finished as the runner-up for ACC Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year after leading the conference in sacks and tackles for a loss in '08...Finished the 2008 season third in the nation in sacks and was the only player to rank in the top four in both sacks and tackles for loss...His 46.5 career tackles for a loss rank second in Florida St. history...Will have to battle the stigma that is associated with Seminole defensive ends because guys like Jamal Reynolds, Alonzo Jackson and Kamerion Wimbley have not fared well in recent years...One of the top pass rushers in the '09 Draft.


    Everette Brown | Florida St. Scouting Report - 2009 NFL Draft Prospect

    Brown will almost certainly go top 20. Some consider him a top 5 pick. But it seems to me that he's undersized for a DE (without the insane quickness that made Dwight Freeney so effective) and even for a 3-4 OLB, with limited ability in coverage and against the run. So I'm not sure why his extra experience as a college DE at Florida St. gives him a lesser chance of failing than someone like Barwin.
  22. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So here's the NFLdraftcountdown profile on Larry English:

    Larry English
    Defensive End
    Senior
    Northern Illinois
    Height: 6-21/8
    Weight: 255
    40-Time: 4.85

    Official Bio

    Strengths:
    Good natural athlete...Has long arms...Very quick with a burst to close...Physical...Aggressive...Can deliver the big hit...Uses his hands well...Has a terrific motor...Employs a wide array of pass rush moves...Good strength and power...Shows the ability to beat double teams...Smart...Good instincts and awareness...Extremely productive.

    Weaknesses:
    Does not have the size or bulk you look for in an NFL defensive end...Lacks elite timed speed...May have to make a position change at the next level...Durability is a real concern...Does not have fluid hips...Struggles in space...Did not always play against top competition.

    Notes:
    Uncle, Charles Richardson, lettered as a fullback at Wisconsin in 1972...Named the Mid-American Conference's Most Valuable Player two years in a row ('07 and ''08)...Also named the MAC Defensive Player of the Year as a senior...Owns the Huskies career sack record...Redshirted as a true freshman after he missed the final 11 games with an ankle injury...Tore his ACL in the Poinsettia Bowl as a sophomore...Tore a pectoral muscle prior to his senior campaign...Underwent surgery to place pins in his broken right thumb during the 2008 season..College defensive end who will probably have to move to outside linebacker in the NFL (most likely in a 3-4 scheme) but may not have the physical tools to do so successfully...Superb college player with an impressive resumé but a classic 'tweener who appears to be getting overrated as a pro prospect.


    http://www.draftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/de/Larry-English.php

    So explain to me why Larry English has less risk as a 3-4 OLB conversion project than Connor Barwin?
  23. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Aaron Maybin
    Defensive End
    Redshirt Sophomore
    Penn St.
    Height: 6-33/4
    Weight: 249
    40-Time: 4.88

    Official Bio

    Strengths:
    Excellent athleticism...Extremely quick and has a phenomenal first step...Explosive with a great burst...Smooth and fluid...Has a non-stop motor...Relentless in pursuit...Closes in a hurry...Agile with good balance and changes directions well...Can be a terror off the edge...Is comfortable in space...Has displayed some ability and promise in coverage...Real long arms...There is very little fat on his body and he has room to add more weight...Offers some positional versatility...A hard worker...Team leader...Nice production...Still has tons of upside.

    Weaknesses:
    Is severely undersized...Does not have great timed speed...A liability versus the run...Struggles mightily to get off blocks...Doesn't play with much discipline...Marginal instincts and awareness...Will need to continue getting stronger...Still immature...Doesn't have much playing experience..Only had one big year in college...Poor program pedigree.

    Notes:
    Redshirted in 2006...Worked in a backup capacity in 2007...Enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2008 and emerged as one of the country's premier pass rushers...Named 1st Team All-Big Ten and also led the conference in sacks in 2008...Was a consensus 1st Team All-American as a redshirt sophomore...Was demoted for a short time prior to the Rose Bowl because he was late for a meeting...Classic 'tweener who is not big enough to play defensive end but might not be fast enough to play outside linebacker either...Playing weight in 2008 was reportedly right around 230 pounds...Packed on 20 pounds between the end of his season and the Scouting Combine but did not test nearly as well as expected...Other Nittany Lion defensive ends like Courtney Brown, Michael Haynes and Tamba Hali have not fared well in the pros...Best fit at the next level could come in a 3-4 scheme...Is basically just a one-dimensional speed rusher at this point...Probably came out too early and is simply not yet ready for the NFL...Has all the potential in the world but is still very raw...Project who will require some patience.


    http://www.draftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/de/Aaron-Maybin.php

    So please explain to me how Aaron Maybin is less risk as a 3-4 OLB conversion project than Connor Barwin?
  24. bucky

    bucky Rookie

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    Well I'm not a scout. But I will say that presumably, whoever drafts Brown in the top 10 (or wherever) will have enough information to have evaluated him correctly as a DE and possible convert to OLB based on 3 years of playing DE in the ACC.

    With English, there are 4 years of games that scouts can use to evaluate his instincts, etc.

    Maybin is somewhat in a similar situation as Barwin. He doesn't have much experience. The other thing with him is that he's just 20 years old. So you have to take that into consideration. First, you have to consider that he was a 20 year old going up against a bunch of 22 year olds this past year and he's going to get bigger and stronger. So that would be one in the "ceiling" column. On the other hand, you have to consider that while he's getting bigger and stronger, he probably won't give you much over the first 2 years. So that's certainly in the "minus" column. So from that perspective, I'd say Maybin and Barwin are in the a similar boat. The one thing that I can't do is watch the film and evaluate how the 2 players compare skill-wise as defensive football players. Presumably, since Maybin is ranked higher, I would say he's done better over the last year or so. But I'll leave that to the people who know.

    By the way, you should post Barwin's profile from that site as well. It's not any more flattering than the ones you've posted!
  25. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Here's Barwin's profile from NFLdraftcountdown, as you requested:

    Connor Barwin
    Outside Linebacker
    Senior
    Cincinnati
    Height: 6-35/8
    Weight: 256
    40-Time: 4.66

    Official Bio

    Strengths:
    Outstanding athleticism...Great speed...Quick with a tremendous first step...Relentless with a non-stop motor...Smooth with good balance and agility...Terrific range...Does a great job in pursuit and has a burst to close...Is comfortable in space...Very instinctive with good awareness...Excellent special teamer...Extremely versatile...Intense and competitive...Smart...A fantastic work ethic...Has a ton of upside.

    Weaknesses:
    Doesn't have great bulk...Still very raw and needs a lot of work in the technique department...Pass rush repertoire is pretty limited...Is not stout at the point of attack and can get pushed around...Doesn't do a great job against the run...Must get stronger...May lack a true position.

    Notes:
    Actually played tight end his first three seasons in college and finished his career with 53 receptions for 692 yards (13.1 avg.) and 6 touchdowns...Could also project to outside linebacker at the next level and some scouts still like him as a tight end...Played 41 games in two seasons as a walk-on with the Bearcats basketball team and scored 45 points...Moved to defensive end as a senior and was a genuine revelation, earning 1st Team All-Big East honors and even leading the conference in sacks...Also blocked three punts and broke up eight passes in 2008...Basically got by on pure talent in 2008 but was still able to made a lot of impact plays and it's scary to think how good he could eventually be...Really improved his draft stock as much as any prospect in the country as a senior...What position he will ultimately end up playing is still up for debate but his intriguing mix of physical tools and potential will make him a valuable commodity on Draft Day.


    http://www.draftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/olb/Connor-Barwin.php

    I'm not sure what's not "flattering" about this profile, it sounds fairly accurate to me. His strengths are fairly well described. There's no doubt that Barwin is raw in terms of defensive technique and experience, and that he got by to a certain degree last year on pure talent, athleticism and motor. He can probably get stronger against the run as well, though I think he is much better there than Everette Brown or Aaron Maybin.

    I would argue that Everette Brown and Larry English are considerably ahead of Connor Barwin as 4-3 DE prospects, based on their greater experience and more established repertoire of moves. But as 3-4 OLB prospects, where everyone is starting from essentially a clean slate and where athleticism and ability to play in space are key, I believe that Barwin is much better positioned to be successful than the other prospects you mentioned.
  26. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    Kevin Ellison, Southern California, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com Football

    2/26/2009 - New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who knows a thing or a million about defense, had an interesting take on the safety position that lends further credence to USC's Kevin Ellison shifting to linebacker in the pros. "The safety position is becoming more and more a corner position in the NFL," Belichick told reporters at the just-concluded scouting combine in Indianapolis. "There was a time when some of the safeties, particularly the strong safeties, fit more almost like linebackers than they did as defensive backs. That's changed gradually, but now to the point where the defensive backs a lot of times have to cover either wide receivers or tight ends who are very, very good in the passing game. So the demands of that position have changed, and we have to change the evaluation of them." It's not as if Ellison can't cover at all; he and Brian Cushing teamed up to neutralize Arizona's star tight end, Rob Gronkowski, this past season. But as NFL Network's analysts suggested, Ellison's body (6-1, 227) and athleticism (4.82 40) scream weak-side linebacker. Belichick's analysis bodes well for USC's Josh Pinkard, a cornerback-safety tweener who played corner effectively last season, might get some snaps at safety next season and projects to safety in the NFL. We haven't seen Taylor Mays line up and cover receivers too often, but there's still great value in safeties who can play "center field," especially ones who can go sideline to sideline like Mays. Interestingly, there's little doubt Mays would have been the top safety selected this year had he elected to come out. Given that, one wonders how Pete Carroll would have reacted if Mays had. - Michael Lev, OC Register
  27. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    Slightly OT but re: the original player in the thread - Bobby Carpenter - does anyone feel that his career can be salvaged, and can he be taught how to be stout enough to play SILB for the NEP?
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