Another CNNSI draft prospect profile

[mayoclinic]

Here's another interesting draft profile from CNNSI:

Position: OLB
Class: Sr
Ht., Wt.: 6-2.5, 256
40 Time: 4.67

BIO: Two-year starter awarded All-Conference honors as a senior after posting 49/10.5/8. Totaled a career-best 93 tackles as a junior.

POSITIVES: Hard-working, aggressive linebacker with terrific instincts. Diagnoses the action and quickly locates the ball. Strong at the point, defeats blocks and wraps up tackling. Takes good angles to the play, gets depth on drops and displays skill in zone coverage. Lined up in a three-point stance and effective off the edge.

NEGATIVES: Not an explosive or quick defender. Marginal skill in pursuit.

ANALYSIS: A prospect who's done everything asked of him. A passionate football player with a good degree of upside potential at the next level. Needs to fine-tune his game yet could quickly find his way into a starting lineup.

The player: Bobby Carpenter, OLB, from 2006. CNNSI gave him a higher grade than they had given DeMarcus Ware the year before (4.08 vs. 3.92), rating him as a 1st round prospect:

SI.com - 2006 NFL Draft - Bobby Carpenter

 

[bucky]

I'm not sure why you posted this particular profile. It's kind of ironic that the Cowboys drafted both of these guys with high draft picks. But I think the only thing you're proving here is that CNNSI profiles are not a good resource for identifying prospects.

 

[jays52]

I'm not sure why you posted this particular profile. It's kind of ironic that the Cowboys drafted both of these guys with high draft picks. But I think the only thing you're proving here is that CNNSI profiles are not a good resource for identifying prospects.

It illustrates the importance of explosion.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

It illustrates the importance of explosion.

:nono: Mike Mamula had explosion! It must be a very bad thing.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not sure why you posted this particular profile. It's kind of ironic that the Cowboys drafted both of these guys with high draft picks. But I think the only thing you're proving here is that CNNSI profiles are not a good resource for identifying prospects.

Carpenter was probably the most popular choice for the Pats at #21 on draft boards in 2006. He came from a "big time" program, but his weaknesses were somewhat disguised by playing alongside other talented players. He had those wonderful "bloodlines" that Belichick supposedly covets. Sound familiar?

I don't think CNNSI is alone in being less than perfect at identifying prospects. My point in posting these 2 profiles was to show (1) that Ware was not considered a sure-fire 1st round pick a month or so before the 2005 draft (his "red flags" included playing in a lesser conference and being something of a "workout warrior"), and (2) that picking high-character kids from big programs with LB experience and great "bloodlines" isn't necessarily a great recipe for success.

 

[signbabybrady]

I don't think CNNSI is alone in being less than perfect at identifying prospects. My point in posting these 2 profiles was to show (1) that Ware was not considered a sure-fire 1st round pick a month or so before the 2005 draft (his "red flags" included playing in a lesser conference and being something of a "workout warrior"), and (2) that picking high-character kids from big programs with LB experience and great "bloodlines" isn't necessarily a great recipe for success.

So your two points are that guys that aren't surefire first rounders can still be pro bowlers and guys who seem to have the perfect recipe can still be unsuccessful? Shocker

 

[MetalBleachers]

Pick this Carpenter kid! it's not too late! :woot:

 

[jays52]

:nono: Mike Mamula had explosion! It must be a very bad thing.

Which is why you build franchises around quality football players like Matt Roth and Jason Babin!

 

[mayoclinic]

So your two points are that guys that aren't surefire first rounders can still be pro bowlers and guys who seem to have the perfect recipe can still be unsuccessful? Shocker

Sorry to disappoint you. I've always claimed that it was an inexact science at best, and don't think there are any guarantees regarding particular prospects succeeding.

I wouldn't have called Carpenter the "perfect recipe" by any means. There were lots of signs that he might not translate to a great pro, but everyone loved his "bloodlines" and "big time program" pedigree. I think it is instructive to compare Ware and Carpenter's pre-draft evaluation to some of this year's prospects:

- Clint Sintim - nice size, 4 year solid track record, but like Carpenter somewhat slow and limited athletically. People assume he will automatically be successful in BB's system because he played in the 3-4 for Al Groh. Not necessarily true.
- Clay Matthews - smaller than Carpenter and more athletic, but like him a guy from a big program with good "bloodlines" whose weaknesses may be masked by playing alongside other strong prospects.
- Connor Barwin - being questioned as a legitimate 1st round prospect because of his lack of experience and questions as to whether his workout numbers will translate to the field.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Which is why you build franchises around quality football players like Matt Roth and Jason Babin!

Ack! Now I'm confused. Should I be or shaking in fear and trepidation :cry2:?

I'll have to ask my cat where my two-headed nickel went.

 

[Metaphors]

:nono: Mike Mamula had explosion! It must be a very bad thing.

You need to weed out the players with an inverse relationship between bank account and on-field production. The only real explosion for Mamula was his taxable income.

 

[bucky]

Carpenter was probably the most popular choice for the Pats at #21 on draft boards in 2006. He came from a "big time" program, but his weaknesses were somewhat disguised by playing alongside other talented players. He had those wonderful "bloodlines" that Belichick supposedly covets. Sound familiar?

I don't think CNNSI is alone in being less than perfect at identifying prospects. My point in posting these 2 profiles was to show (1) that Ware was not considered a sure-fire 1st round pick a month or so before the 2005 draft (his "red flags" included playing in a lesser conference and being something of a "workout warrior"), and (2) that picking high-character kids from big programs with LB experience and great "bloodlines" isn't necessarily a great recipe for success.

Point well taken. You are underlining the importance of evaluating players for what they actually do on the field. Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury of obtaining game films of these prospects and evaluating them. So we resort to other less significant metrics - such as Wonderlich scores, 40 times, and bloodlines.

I think it's ironic that we are arguing the merits of DeMarcus Ware and Mike Mamula. Both of these guys are poster boys for either side of the argument. In reality though, there are at least 3 other players in this draft who potentially fit the profile of a DeMarcus Ware - Brown, Maybin, and English. All 3 are undersized DEs who may end up being 3-4 OLBs. All 3 are exceptional pass rushers. All 3 have more experience than Barwin (in most cases significantly more). All 3 were ranked as 1st round prospects before the combine. So which one is the next DeMarcus Ware? If you ask me, the chances that either of them turns into a Ware type of player are low. And the risk associated with picking either of them and converting to OLB is fairly high.

If I were to compare Barwin to those 3 players, I would put it like this. His chances of evolving into the next Ware are as good as any of the other 3 (i.e. mediocre). However, his chances of complete failure are higher due to his lack of experience and lack of information available to make a valid evaluation on him. For those same reasons, the probability is high that his evolution as a starter will be longer - probably too long for a 1st round draft pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

If I were to compare Barwin to those 3 players, I would put it like this. His chances of evolving into the next Ware are as good as any of the other 3 (i.e. mediocre). However, his chances of complete failure are higher due to his lack of experience and lack of information available to make a valid evaluation on him. For those same reasons, the probability is high that his evolution as a starter will be longer - probably too long for a 1st round draft pick.

I'm not sure I agree with you. First, none of those guys (Everett Brown, Aaron Maybin, and Larry English) has much "experience" at 3-4 OLB. Barwin has more experience playing in space than any of those 3 guys because of his basketball and TE background. All 3 of those guys have big danger flags about playing 3-4 OLB for the Pats:

- Maybin is quite light, having played around 230# when he put up his great numbers for Penn St. At the combine and his pro day, as he has put on weight he has lost significant speed. It is not clear that he can maintain the weight necessary to be effective. He is almost exclusively a pass rusher, and has not showed that he can maintain the point of attack, play the run, or cover.

- Brown is quite short at 6' 1 1/2". None of the Pats successful 3-4 OLBs have been anywhere near that short.

- English is also a bit on the short side at 6'2", and his agility numbers suggest that he lacks some of the quickness and burst necessary to translate his effectiveness at the next level. He has put up nice numbers over 4 years playing in a lesser conference. It's not at all clear that he can play in space or cover.

Personally, I'll take the athletic shot-blocker and former TE when it comes to moving to the ball, altering or deflecting passes, and covering TEs, given that none of the 4 has ever played 3-4 OLB to any significant degree.

 

[signbabybrady]

I like Barwin and will be thrilled if we get him but it seems like you are molding the argument about these past prospects to make it seem like Barwin is better instead of just saying why you like Barwin like in this post.

Personally, I'll take the athletic shot-blocker and former TE when it comes to moving to the ball, altering or deflecting passes, and covering TEs, given that none of the 4 has ever played 3-4 OLB to any significant degree.

Cant we just stick to his pedigree and not get caught up with some similarities he might have to some drafted a few years ago that suceeded or that other guys can be compared to busts. I am sure there are plenty of guys with similar stories to Ware that failed and guys like Carpenter that succeeded.

 

[jays52]

Consider this hypothetical situation:

In the fall of 2002, Antonio Gates is contacted by the football coaches at Kent State and is asked to play tight end for his senior season. He was recruited by Nick Saban as a linebacker, but doesn't have much experience as a collegiate tight end. Being a solid guy and recieving permission from the Basketball coach, he decides to play football. Gates then goes on to catch 70 balls and 16 touchdowns, in the process establishing himself as an elite TE prospect for the 2003 NFL draft. He is invited to the combine where he puts up silly athletic numbers. Three weeks later at his pro day, Gates improves on nearly all times and is flawless in his interviews with TE coaches throughout the league.

What are the positives? Prototypical size, highly athletic, highly productive, demonstrates improvement from test to test and shows aptitude in understanding the game.

The knocks? Low level of competition, relatively small sample size, inexperienced player, potential "workout warrior".

While the similarities are everywhere, the difference between a workout warrior negative connotation and the hypothetical situation presented is that the athletic measurables are commiserate with the production.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Cant we just stick to his pedigree and not get caught up with some similarities he might have to some drafted a few years ago that suceeded or that other guys can be compared to busts. I am sure there are plenty of guys with similar stories to Ware that failed and guys like Carpenter that succeeded.

First, comparison to past draft picks and their success moving to similar positions in the NFL is valid. Second, the people arguing against Barwin aren't discussing his positives, they're pointing to Mike Mamula, Manny Lawson, and Bobby Carpenter and saying 'see, they sucked and Barwin will too.' There are plenty of posts here saying this is what Barwin brings to the table, but the discussions swirl around the negative - we are talking NE fans with their Red Sox-itis here.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

While the similarities are everywhere, the difference between a workout warrior negative connotation and the hypothetical situation presented is that the athletic measurables are commiserate with the production.

Yeh, but his team never won a Super Bowl. :snob:

 

[mayoclinic]

Consider this hypothetical situation:

In the fall of 2002, Antonio Gates is contacted by the football coaches at Kent State and is asked to play tight end for his senior season. He was recruited by Nick Saban as a linebacker, but doesn't have much experience as a collegiate tight end. Being a solid guy and recieving permission from the Basketball coach, he decides to play football. Gates then goes on to catch 70 balls and 16 touchdowns, in the process establishing himself as an elite TE prospect for the 2003 NFL draft. He is invited to the combine where he puts up silly athletic numbers. Three weeks later at his pro day, Gates improves on nearly all times and is flawless in his interviews with TE coaches throughout the league.

What are the positives? Prototypical size, highly athletic, highly productive, demonstrates improvement from test to test and shows aptitude in understanding the game.

The knocks? Low level of competition, relatively small sample size, inexperienced player, potential "workout warrior".

While the similarities are everywhere, the difference between a workout warrior negative connotation and the hypothetical situation presented is that the athletic measurables are commiserate with the production.

:woot: You are a genius.

 

[Metaphors]

Personally, I'll take the athletic shot-blocker and former TE when it comes to moving to the ball, altering or deflecting passes, and covering TEs, given that none of the 4 has ever played 3-4 OLB to any significant degree.

Michael Johnson?

 

[VJCPatriot]

I wasn't in love with Carpenter as a prospect and I didn't think we'd take him. Is there a point to this?