Palm Beach Pats Fan
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- Joined
- Jan 31, 2008
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The Patriots-hating narrative is to insist that they were gifted another Super Bowl, that Atlanta flat-out gave it away by not running the football late in the game.
I have explored the “alternate reality” of what was very likely to happen if the Falcons had done precisely what the second-guessers insist was the right thing to do. Never mind that the second-guessers ignore the fact that the Falcons achieved their field position, within FG range, by virtue of a 39 yard pass play and a 27 yard pass play!
My conclusion is that the game, for the Patriots, was winnable even if the Falcons ran it into the line repeatedly and kicked a FG to go up 11. The GOAT would have found a way.
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To recap, Jones made his incredible catch at the 4:40 mark and went out of bounds, thus the clock stopped. Freeman then lost a yard and the clock ran. At 3:56 Ryan snapped it, was sacked, and the Patriots called their 1st TO at 3:50.
In the alternate reality, the Falcons instead ran it. The Patriots STILL called TO. 3:50 left, 3rd down. No difference, of course, besides field position.
Back to the real world, the Falcons then attempted a pass play, were called for holding. The penalty importantly meant that it stayed 3rd down, with the clock at 3:44. They had to repeat 3rd down, threw an incomplete pass, and the clock ran to 3:38.
In the alternate reality the Falcons instead ran it again and were stopped cold. The Patriots immediately called TO #2, the clock was at 3:44, but guess what, with no penalty, it was 4th down, not 3rd down! The Falcons then took a FG, then kicked off at about 3:40, up 11. The Patriots then, as they had all game, likely took the ball after a touchback, at the 25 yard line, down 11, with 3:40 to go, and with 1 TO in their pocket.
Back in the real world, the Patriots had the ball 16 yards further back, at the 9 yard line, with 2 TOs and 3:38 left. Note: They did not use either timeout to drive, rather methodically so as to not leave too much time for Ryan, 10 plays, 91 yards in 2:41.
I argue that the Pats play calling would have been altered if they had been down 11 points to be much more aggressive. Their goal would clearly have been to drive the lesser distance, 75 yards, in under 1:40 (before the two minute warning) rather than 91 yards in 2:41. To show that it was indeed feasible, it actually took NE an entire minute in the real world to get from the 9 yard line to the 25 yard line after the Hogan catch. In the alternate reality, after an ATL FG, KO, and touchback, they would have STARTED THERE!
So let’s say that the Patriots scored and were able to get the (untimed) 2-pt. conversion before the two minute warning, with the one TO still in their pocket. Say, at 2:03. What then?
In the alternate reality, Ghost then blasted it into the end zone so that no time ran off.
The Falcons had 1st and 10 at the 25, they ran it, were stopped, then came the 2 minute warning!
The Falcons had 2nd and 10 at the 25 yard line, ran it, were stopped, the Patriots called their last TO, then 1:57 was left!
The Falcons had 3rd and 10 at the 25 yard line, ran it, were stopped, 40 seconds ran off the play clock. 1:17 was left when the Falcons had to punt. Maybe 1:12 if the play took 5 seconds.
Assume a 40 yard punt, fair caught, the Patriots then had the football at their own 35 yard line, no timeouts, with significantly more than one minute left. They needed to gain ~30 yards to attempt a game-tying FG. Atlanta’s defense was gassed. Brady was on fire.
My conclusion it that it is entirely reasonable that it would have been an overtime game, if the Falcons did EXACTLY what their detractors say that they should have done.
Brady would have found a way.
I have explored the “alternate reality” of what was very likely to happen if the Falcons had done precisely what the second-guessers insist was the right thing to do. Never mind that the second-guessers ignore the fact that the Falcons achieved their field position, within FG range, by virtue of a 39 yard pass play and a 27 yard pass play!
My conclusion is that the game, for the Patriots, was winnable even if the Falcons ran it into the line repeatedly and kicked a FG to go up 11. The GOAT would have found a way.
----
To recap, Jones made his incredible catch at the 4:40 mark and went out of bounds, thus the clock stopped. Freeman then lost a yard and the clock ran. At 3:56 Ryan snapped it, was sacked, and the Patriots called their 1st TO at 3:50.
In the alternate reality, the Falcons instead ran it. The Patriots STILL called TO. 3:50 left, 3rd down. No difference, of course, besides field position.
Back to the real world, the Falcons then attempted a pass play, were called for holding. The penalty importantly meant that it stayed 3rd down, with the clock at 3:44. They had to repeat 3rd down, threw an incomplete pass, and the clock ran to 3:38.
In the alternate reality the Falcons instead ran it again and were stopped cold. The Patriots immediately called TO #2, the clock was at 3:44, but guess what, with no penalty, it was 4th down, not 3rd down! The Falcons then took a FG, then kicked off at about 3:40, up 11. The Patriots then, as they had all game, likely took the ball after a touchback, at the 25 yard line, down 11, with 3:40 to go, and with 1 TO in their pocket.
Back in the real world, the Patriots had the ball 16 yards further back, at the 9 yard line, with 2 TOs and 3:38 left. Note: They did not use either timeout to drive, rather methodically so as to not leave too much time for Ryan, 10 plays, 91 yards in 2:41.
I argue that the Pats play calling would have been altered if they had been down 11 points to be much more aggressive. Their goal would clearly have been to drive the lesser distance, 75 yards, in under 1:40 (before the two minute warning) rather than 91 yards in 2:41. To show that it was indeed feasible, it actually took NE an entire minute in the real world to get from the 9 yard line to the 25 yard line after the Hogan catch. In the alternate reality, after an ATL FG, KO, and touchback, they would have STARTED THERE!
So let’s say that the Patriots scored and were able to get the (untimed) 2-pt. conversion before the two minute warning, with the one TO still in their pocket. Say, at 2:03. What then?
In the alternate reality, Ghost then blasted it into the end zone so that no time ran off.
The Falcons had 1st and 10 at the 25, they ran it, were stopped, then came the 2 minute warning!
The Falcons had 2nd and 10 at the 25 yard line, ran it, were stopped, the Patriots called their last TO, then 1:57 was left!
The Falcons had 3rd and 10 at the 25 yard line, ran it, were stopped, 40 seconds ran off the play clock. 1:17 was left when the Falcons had to punt. Maybe 1:12 if the play took 5 seconds.
Assume a 40 yard punt, fair caught, the Patriots then had the football at their own 35 yard line, no timeouts, with significantly more than one minute left. They needed to gain ~30 yards to attempt a game-tying FG. Atlanta’s defense was gassed. Brady was on fire.
My conclusion it that it is entirely reasonable that it would have been an overtime game, if the Falcons did EXACTLY what their detractors say that they should have done.
Brady would have found a way.
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