Analyzing the myth of ATL blowing a sure win by not running the ball up 28-20

[gitgronked82]

I disagree... Making a lot of assumptions there about how quickly we could drive, etc... how do we know their first run would've come before the 2 min warning? 11 points is way harder here, regardless of field position.

 

[mosi]

Why do we have to think about an alternative reality? Atlanta got to the 22 yard line. They thought they could get more and the Pats knew they had to stop them. The 2 yard loss, the sack, the "choke hold" hold on Long and the incompletion were all about the Pats. The Pats D stood up and stopped them. They did their job.

And honestly when Atlanta got the ball back with 57 seconds left, the Pats again did their job and prevented them from getting in FG range. Stuff the Falcons did, like bringing the ball out of the end zone and loosing 4 seconds and 24 yards hurt the Falcons but the Pats still had to do their job and prevent them from getting anything else, and they did.

 

[robbomango]

The games not over you still have to make the field goal, easier ones have been shanked. They also just lost a couple yards running and we were looking for it. The D is looking to make a play, strip ball, INT, sack, block'd FG, that's there mission. They weren't just going to let them do what ever they wanted lol.

So many scenarios could play out, for people to say "Yeah we just do X and game over" that assumes our D is going to stand around doing nothing. This is the SB, they're going all out.

 

[ausbacker]

What magic is required?

Atlanta running plays in the 2nd half up before the Hightower sack/fumble

Freeman for -3 yards
Coleman for 5 yards
Coleman for 0 yards
Freeman for 9 yards
Freeman for -3 yards
Coleman for -1 yards
Coleman for 8 yards
Coleman for 1 yard (Coleman injured, did not return)

8 carries for 16 yards

Patriots vs. Falcons - Play-By-Play - February 5, 2017 - ESPN

One thing that stood out to me and that's in the fourth quarter, the Patriots DL, especially Alan Branch was pushing back the LOS and collapsing the pocket pretty quickly. For instance, on the Hightower strip sack fumble recovery, Branch pushed back almost the entire interior OL. Roberts and co started collapsing on Atlanta's sweeps and outside runs, effectively killing those plays almost immediately. They really played well in the fourth.

 

[PatsDeb]

IDK. If they had just run the ball for the entire 4th quarter, even if they did not gain a lot of yards, they would have cut down the clock a lot and I think we would not have had enough time to come back. Plus, Freeman was killing us earlier in the game. Why they ever got away from that is a mystery to me (and yes, I know we stopped Freeman for a loss of 1 on first down on their final fateful drive, but even if they had handed off to him twice more and lost two more yards, they could have run another minute off the clock and easily kicked a FG.) There is no excuse for them to do what they did there. Once Jones reached the 22 they should have run it three times up the middle, taking as much time as possible off the clock, to position their kicker for an easy FG and a dagger to the hearts of the Pats. Who knows - the way we were playing earlier in the game, Freeman might have busted one for a TD. The drive before their last, it was 3rd and 1 (third and 1!) on the play where Ryan was strip-sacked in the shot gun. Why are you throwing there Atlanta? Curious tactics my dear Watson. If they had run for no gain or a loss of a few yards, again, they would have been able to run the clock and at least pin us on our own side of the field. Instead strip sack and short field for Tom Brady. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Just ask yourself, if the tables were reversed and BB was the coach deciding what to do there (particularly on the last drive, where you already knew about the strip sack and the fact that the Patriots had woken up from their 2 and 3/4 quarter slumber), would he have been throwing the ball? I think not.

 

[ausbacker]

IDK. If they had just run the ball for the entire 4th quarter, even if they did not gain a lot of yards, they would have cut down the clock a lot and I think we would not have had enough time to come back. Plus, Freeman was killing us earlier in the game. Why they ever got away from that is a mystery to me (and yes, I know we stopped Freeman for a loss of 1 on first down on their final fateful drive, but even if they had handed off to him twice more and lost two more yards, they could have run another minute off the clock and easily kicked a FG.) There is no excuse for them to do what they did there. Once Jones reached the 22 they should have run it three times up the middle, taking as much time as possible off the clock, to position their kicker for an easy FG and a dagger to the hearts of the Pats. Who knows - the way we were playing earlier in the game, Freeman might have busted one for a TD. The drive before their last, it was 3rd and 1 (third and 1!) on the play where Ryan was strip-sacked in the shot gun. Why are you throwing there Atlanta? Curious tactics my dear Watson. If they had run for no gain or a loss of a few yards, again, they would have been able to run the clock and at least pin us on our own side of the field. Instead strip sack and short field for Tom Brady. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Just ask yourself, if the tables were reversed and BB was the coach deciding what to do there (particularly on the last drive, where you already knew about the strip sack and the fact that the Patriots had woken up from their 2 and 3/4 quarter slumber), would he have been throwing the ball? I think not.

In the post-match, Quinn was quoted as saying words similar to they wanted to stay true to the philosophy that got them to the Super Bowl and the position they were in; aggressive football. That's what separates Belichick from the rest. He coaches the moment.

 

[Kdo5]

Running the ball and kicking the FG was a no brainer move and the Falcons botched it. It's not a bad reflection upon the Patriots and their incredible comeback to acknowledge this.

Yes Brady could still have pulled it off OR our defense might have stuffed the runs and forced another three and out later but it's far from a guarantee.

You play it safe and run the ball, take the FG and an 11 point lead. If the Pats manage to score again with a two pt conversion then again with a FG within 4 minutes, so be it.

If they took the 11 point lead I feel the Pats would have been even more aggressive, more likely to take chances and possibly make a game ending turnover.

 

[Angelpats]

I agree with the OP. We were going to win no matter what. Can't change fate. I hate people trying to discredit our team, we earned it and deserved it. Even if they ran it, it's more likely they would fumble than a team coming back from a 25 point deficit in the third quarter of the super bowl.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

The Falcons had 1st and 10 from the NE 22 with 4:40 to go. If they had run it 3 times (with NE calling a TO after 2nd and 3rd down) and then successfully made the FG, it would have been an 11 point game with about 3:45 to go.

That's a much harder row to hoe than 8 points, even with all the momentum on your side. Is it impossible? Of course not. But for all intents and purposes, you probably have to rely on a successful onside kick. Scoring a TD in less than 1:45 against a prevent defense without using any timeouts isn't something that you can just assume they would easily accomplish.

But I think under the scenario all they need is a FG and not a TD. Much less ground to cover.

 

[XLIX]

But I think under the scenario all they need is a FG and not a TD. Much less ground to cover.

I meant the TD that they need to score from the moment they got the ball with 3:45 remaining, which they need to score prior to the 2:00 warning. The whole hypothetical is predicated on using the 2:00 warning as a defensive timeout.

 

[raduray]

I think that the analysis is fine, and the described scenario would have been feasible, but there's no doubt that an 8 point deficit (one score) was lot better than 11 points (two scores). And I don't have a problem with crediting an Atlanta coaching brain fart as an important contributor to our victory, just as was Freeman's misplay on Hightower's strip sack. Game management is a big a part of the game, along with offense, defense and ST's, and in that one area our coaches were superior.

 

[RIpats88]

The haters just need to come up with excuses for how brady isnt the goat. Its always the other team choked no credit given to the pats.."if only they handed it to lynch"...ya, and if only welker made that catch he does 9-10 times they win in 11

 

[robbomango]

Atlanta was moving the ball by passing it, when they ran it they got stuffed for a couple of yards w/ patriots swarming all over Freeman, they opted to throw instead, hardly the crime of the century. They still had a chance at a field goal passing again to pick up some more yards accept for the boneheaded hold/10yd penalty which ended up being the real killer.

If they ran it and got striped/fumbled people would say they should've kneeled and then kicked a FG. They'd scour the game tape to find hidden penalties not called or anything else.