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An Early Projection

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Apr 26, 2009.

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  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    MG’s ROSTER AS OF APRIL 26 6:24

    OFFENSE (25)
    QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Gutierrez
    RB/FB (5) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney, BJGE
    WR (5) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Tate
    TE (3) Watson, Baker, Thomas
    OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
    OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

    DEFENSE (25)
    DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace. Smith
    OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Banta-Cain, Woods, Redd
    ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, McKenzie
    CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
    S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Williams

    SPECIALISTS (3)
    K (1) Gostkowski
    P (1) Hanson
    LS (1) Ingram

    WAITING FOR INJURIES
    Hodel, Spann, Ventrone, Slater, Richardson, Yates, O’Callaghan, Yates, Ruud, Alexander, Aiken
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  2. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think Tate will start the year on PUP and more likely than not head to IR in week 10 when they have to decide to activate him or IR him.
  3. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No confidence in the Jason Taylor thought???
  4. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Looks right to me. I was thinking Hodel is ahead of Ingram, but then I recalled they're trying really hard to save on salary cap money.

    You also missed names on the "Wrong side of the bubble list". The first one that comes to mind is Aiken.
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    He does say as of April 26th. Taylor ain't on the roster right now.
  6. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

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    Good job. Not much to ***** about rosterwise especiialy if JT is in the fold. My only beef in this draft is that I would have liked to see us draft Huber on day 2 to compete w/ Hanson.
  7. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I fixed Aiken.

    Also, Ingram will have a 4-year contract so we won't have to deal with the issue every year.

  8. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Hodel has about a $500k cap hit with $50k worth of bonus that counts vs. the cap. Ingram would be about $470k if he makes the squad. Add that and the $50k of dead money by cutting Hodel, Ingram would count more vs. the cap.

    I am guessing unless he really impresses, Ingram will end up on the practice squad.
  9. Bertil

    Bertil Rookie

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    In a perfect world, that roster would hold up, but the truth is perhaps up to 4 of those guys start the year on PUP if not IR. Looks stacked though.
  10. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Fixed it for ya!
  11. patriot lifer

    patriot lifer Rookie

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    i think we could use a nice pass rusher :)

    and let's cross Tank Willams off the list. No way he stays healthy.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  12. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    I like that idea Rob. Also if Tate does make the 53 it will be in the place of Lewis. They are the same type of player, whereas Aiken can at least provide some tackling ability on ST.
  13. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    That jives neither with logic nor with Miguel's cap page.

    Ingram will surely be signed, and will get some small bonus. After that, Hodel's and Ingram's bonuses are sunk costs, except to the extent that cutting either would accelerate the bonus into the current year. Hodel is on a one-year deal; hence cutting him accelerates nothing. Ingram will presumably be on a short multi-year deal.

    And Ingram's 2009 salary will surely be a lot less than Hodel's.
  14. PatsBoy12

    PatsBoy12 Rookie

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    Save room on that list for an impending pickup at OLB.;)

    WhiZa, your sig is the best.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  15. Jimke

    Jimke Rookie

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    The Dolphins were planning on signing Taylor if they didn't use any high

    picks on a linebacker. They didn't.
  16. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    1) I am not currently projecting specific players to be on PUP, IR or cut because of injuries to start the season.

    2) Aiken instead of Lewis is a possibility. Aiken making the squad if Tate starts on PUP is certainly reasonable. I would project Ventrone.

  17. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ingram's cap hit will be either about the same or at most only about $60k less than what Hodel's cap is. I am responding about keeping the cap down, not real dollars.

    Hodel is a veteran so eventhough he signed for $750k and a $50k roster bonus, his cap hit is $519k and if he is cut the whole $50k hits ths year's cap. No matter what Ingram signs for, if he makes the 53 man roster his cap hit can be no lower than the minimum which is $467k. So what I said is exactly correct and jibes perfectly with what Miguel has.

    Besides, my point was that cutting Hodel and keeping Ingram saves no cap money from making Holden the long snapper and cutting Hodel. The most you can save from cutting Hodel no matter what you do is about $10k because he is only making about $60k more than the minimum cap wise and has $50k of bonus money. Because to replace him on the roster, it would cost the Pats at least $467k in cap room to sign a player to the minimum.

    Also, when did I say Hodel had an accelarated bonus. I said that his cap hit was $519k and if he is cut the Pats still have $50k on the cap.

    I will give one caveot that I may be wrong about what the minimum rookie cap hit is which might make it a $100k or so in savings. Even then, I doubt that is enough to make the cut based on cap hit.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  18. eom

    eom Rookie

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    I can see the PUP, but I don't know why they'd want him on IR.
    you want that guy practicing w/the team and available for emergency duty in case of injury.
    I'm sure there will be some other player(s) on legit IR by then.
  19. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    When the player comes off the PUP they have four weeks to activate or IR the player. he will spend a month practicing with the team. I really doubt they will use a roster spot to activate him unless he can contribute somewhere. I kinda doubt he will be able to.
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Do we really know that Tate will not be physically ready to perform by midseason? He is a fine returner. The alternative is to simply put him on IR for the year.
  21. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Well, yes. Looking at Miguel's page and seeing salaries well below your quoted figure might have been your first clue.

    Using Google would have quickly revealed to you that rookie minimum salary is $310,000 next year.

    That's pretty garbled, but you are close to correct in that his cap hit, as per Miguel, is only $517,280, and what can be saved off the cap by cutting him is $57,280 less than that. I was forgetting about that twist in the CBA.

    So the cap difference between the two is only $150K, plus whatever acceleration there is on Ingram's bonus. Surely that's under $200K total.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  22. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

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    I'm praying for Taylor in, TBC out
  23. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So I was slightly off with the numbers because I confused the veteran minimum with the rookie minimum, but my overall point stands. The Pats probably save about $100-150k by cutting Hodel (maybe less) when you factor in the bonus. If the Pats are making personnel decisions based on saving $100-150k against the cap, then they got more problems than determining who is going to be the long snapper.
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2009
  24. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Particular vulnerabilities IMO:

    Tate to injury
    Gutt to another position
    BJE to another position or a veteran blocking FB
    Levoir to fellow vet reserves
    Ingram to Hodel
    Williams to younger guys

    And by the way, you have Yates listed twice
  25. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree with all your possibilities. In fact, I favor upgrading Gut and BJGE with veteran free agents.

    There is always injury risks and players injured at the time of the draft who may or may not be ready for the season.

    I would be surprised to see healthy Tank Williams cut to make room for younger players. I presume that you mean Spann or Ventrone. We really don't have a need to make the secondary any younger. If he is cut, it will be because one of them is more valuable. I just don't see it, but then that is what camp is for.

    I like LeVoir and Ingram, but am certainly fine with veterans instead.

  26. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Or Slater or whoever.

    Chung could well fill the specific quasi-LB safety role that Rodney filled so well even when he was slipping otherwise, and that Williams is meant for. If so, Williams might not have much of a role otherwise.
  27. StraightCashHomey81

    StraightCashHomey81 Rookie

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    Projected 53 Man Roster
    QB: Brady, O'Connel, Guitterez (3)
    No way Bill keeps less than 3 after Tom's Injury last year.
    RB: Morris, Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, BJGE (5)
    Injury histories of top 4 keeps BJGE on roster
    TE: Baker, Smith, Watson (3)
    Hochstein's FB ability allows for only 3 TEs w/ no FB.
    WR: Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Aiken, Edelman (6)
    Edelman's versatitlity, return ability, potential give him roster spot over Slater.
    OL: Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Vollmer, Ohrnberger, LeVoir, Hochstein (9)
    Tough position, lots of depth and wildcards
    DL: Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Brace, Wright, Le Kevin Smith (6)
    I don't think we keep 7 DLs, and Green's Average season last year and high cap number give him the ax.
    ILB: Mayo, Bruschi, Guyton, Lenon, Ciurcui (5)
    Alexander finally goes, Ciurcui is the new Izzo.
    OLB: Thomas, Woods, Crable, Redd (4)
    TBC presence and ST's ability can't overcome Redd's potential.
    CB: Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite, Butler (5)
    Easiest position unless Richardson squeezez in as a 6th CB and outplays McGowan on ST.
    S: Sanders, Meriweather, Chung, McGowan (4)
    Another easy position, with the only real battle being McGown v. Richardson v. Spann.
    ST: Gostkowski, Hanson, Ingram (3)
    Ingram is cheaper, better than Hodel (just a guess no one can really judge snappers)
    Last 5 in: Redd(49), Ciurcui(50), Hochstein(51), BJGE(52), Edelman(53)
    Last 6 out: Ventrone(54), Green(55), Yates(56), TBC(57), Thomas(58),
    Britt(59)
    Practice Squad: (If everybody's available): G. Bussey, M. Pryor, D. Richard, J. Porter, R. Ortiz, E. Kettani, B. Hoyer, J.Love.
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2009
  28. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    DaBruinz Roster Guess:

    OFFENSE (23)
    QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, Hoyer
    RB/FB (4) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney
    WR (4) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis,
    TE (3) Watson, Baker, Smith
    OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, Vollmer
    OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, Ornberger

    DEFENSE (24)
    DL (7) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Brace, Smith
    OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Woods, Redd
    ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Lenon
    CB (5) Butler, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
    S (4) Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, Williams,

    SPECIALISTS (6)
    K (1) Gostkowski
    P (1) Hanson
    LS (1) Ingram
    ST (3) Slater, Edelman, Ciurciu/Banta-Cain.

    RESERVE: McKenzie, Tate

    WAITING FOR INJURIES
    Hodel, Spann, Ventrone, Thomas, Richardson, Yates, O’Callaghan, Alexander, Aiken, BJGE, Gutierrez

    P.S. - Ruud is gone so he can't be on the "waiting for injuries" section.
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2009
  29. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #50 Jersey

    How is LeVoir vulnerable? LeVoir went from the Rams Practice Squad to being the Swing tackle for the Pats. He more than held his own and, imho, will push both Light and Kaczur. He's way ahead of Britt and O'Callaghan.

    Gutt is battling Hoyer.
    Williams won't be vulnerable.

    TBC is vulnerable, imho.
    I don't see BJGE making this team. He'll probably be on emergency speed dial.
  30. Feep50

    Feep50 Rookie

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    This looks like an NFL team that will win 12+ games and be a threat to win it all..... The good times continue to roll in New England! :cool:
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