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A strictly football strategy discussion about Buffalo


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I suspect the run game is going to be a big factor early; running out of 2 TE sets, forcing the Bills to keep that nickel defense, but then running outside the tackles (which seems to be Blount's strength). Once the run game is established, I'd imagine we're going to see play action and probably more big plays to Gronk and/or Bennett.

I think the early down run game is key for both teams. If Buffalo plays nickel against the 2 TE, Pats need to be able to run the ball. Buffalo will want to put NE in 3rd and 5+ and then use varying schemes. The comforting thing is even if NE isn't running the ball too well, they really can mix up their passing attack (bubble screens, rb isolated on LB, TE matchup, Edelman underneath) based on Buffalo's look.
I think it will be a close game and ultimately Buffalo will lose its cool and take an undisciplined penalty that swings the game. Would like to see NE win the turnover battle.
 
I think you are right - Rex will go back to this well. The difference for us, I hope, will be that Brady is no longer afraid to throw to the RBs (White and even Blount caught a ball either last week or the week before) and Blount will hopefully be able pound the ball. Also, I can't remember, other than Welker, who our receivers were for that game, but I think we have a better all-around group this time around, and somebody should be able to get open to move the chains.
You couldn't be more accurate. Brady never fails to amaze. He was a 10 year vet back in 2010, a time when most players start their decline. And here his 6 years later a far BETTER QB than the record breaking one he was in 2010. He is a very, very, VERY special player.
 
If Rex lines up in a dime against a 2 TE offense and McD goes hurry up, that's trouble for them. The Pats have too many weapons this year (unless Bennett is limited) and everyone can catch from all over the field. Rex beat them with dime coverage and a tough DL when the Patriots offense was predicated on WRs getting open in the short middle and they couldn't run. This offense attacks a much larger area of the field with both quick players (Edelman, White), big players (Gronk,Bennett,Blount) and fast deep players (Hogan). And it runs with some pretty decent power.

On top of that, whatever Rex may tell them, they know the team they beat had Brissett at QB. If they lose momentum early, they're in trouble. They're a high-emotion team that can quickly lose its professional demeanor and make a lot of mistakes. Which leads to penalties and turnovers.

OTOH, I don't see the Pats making too many unforced errors. Belichick is going to harp on that all week. Rex can harp on that all he wants - it won't make a damn bit of difference.
 
If Rex lines up in a dime against a 2 TE offense and McD goes hurry up, that's trouble for them. The Pats have too many weapons this year (unless Bennett is limited) and everyone can catch from all over the field. Rex beat them with dime coverage and a tough DL when the Patriots offense was predicated on WRs getting open in the short middle and they couldn't run. This offense attacks a much larger area of the field with both quick players (Edelman, White), big players (Gronk,Bennett,Blount) and fast deep players (Hogan). And it runs with some pretty decent power.

On top of that, whatever Rex may tell them, they know the team they beat had Brissett at QB. If they lose momentum early, they're in trouble. They're a high-emotion team that can quickly lose its professional demeanor and make a lot of mistakes. Which leads to penalties and turnovers.

OTOH, I don't see the Pats making too many unforced errors. Belichick is going to harp on that all week. Rex can harp on that all he wants - it won't make a damn bit of difference.
Further, teams can't harp on what the Pats are going to do. Even a well coached defensive unit like the Bills can't key on whether or not the Pats are going to run or pass if they're lined up in either 12 or 22 personnel. The Bills, like the other defenses they've played, will pretty much declare what they're going to do pre-snap. If the Pats are in those packages on offense and the Bills roll out their nickel or dime units, the Pats will run all over them. If the Bills come out in base against those packages, there should be a lot of room to work the middle of the field or down the seam.
 
@patfanken have you noticed that the majority of running plays that James White has had success on have come when the Pats have rolled out 12 personnel? I don't get the All-22 but, based on what I can see pre-snap on those plays, that seems to be the personnel that the running game has had the most success in. I ask this because this is the package I expect the Pats to throw at Buffalo early on tomorrow.
 
Well I was listening to the podcast and there was a unanimous agreement that Red Ryan would be very aggressive in coming after Brady in Sunday's game. Well that makes a sense for a lot of reasons. First it is what his first instinct are. Second blitzing and aggressive pass rushes are always going to be more effective when you are at home, where the crowd noise makes communications that much more difficult. It always gives the defensive rush an edge, since when it's loud enough, the OLmen are slower coming off the ball. Third, this is a VERY young OL, especially in the middle, and being aggressive is more likely to create mistakes. And last, you have a great front 7 which includes the league's leading sacker, and has Marcel Darieus coming back this week.

Well not so fast. It's a good rule to ALWAYS take a second look when the first answer seems too easy. So it got me to thinking about Rex Ryan's greatest victory of his coaching career, when he came into NE and shocked a heavily favored Pats team in that 2010 playoffs. Rex completely surprised that great offense when he consistently rushed only 3 or 4 while dropping back 7 or 8. In THAT way he was able to be very physical with Welker and double Gronk and Hernandez, who were our biggest threats. In the end he played a 5 under defense to choke off our short game, with 2-3 deep. It allowed the Jets to be physical with the Pats receivers off the LOS, yet still be in zone where they weren't subject to pick plays and wind up chasing receivers with their backs turned toward the LOS.

I also recall that, while the rush didn't get to Brady much, it still got him off his spot, while the tight coverage kept him from throwing to open receivers with any kind of rhythm. IIRC, lots of time I remember Brady holding the ball for what seemed to be forever, and eventually even the 3 man rushers got to him once in a while. It was a brilliant plan, which was compounded by the fact we didn't run the ball well, and Brady kept trying to fit the ball into tight spots while ignoring open RB's. After the 2007 Superbowl loss, I think this was the most difficult and painful loss of the BB era for fans to deal with. Well at least this one.

So here we are 6 years later. Rex is in a new job. Once again he has a good defensive team with 2 good CB's, a much better DL than he had in 2010, and fast LB's. So why WOULDN'T he go against expectations, and only rush 3 or 4 men against our weakest area, and max protect against our prolific passing attack, while being physical with our receivers and once again selectively double our plethora of receivers and force Brady to hold the ball waiting for guys to come open and get to him with that 3 or 4 man rush. But more importantly NOT allow Brady to throw quickly with any rhythm. Isn't that what the Steelers did with much lesser talent, and yet still caused some problems for our offense for about half the game. THEN on those 4 or 5 occasions when you DO decide to blitz they will have much more impact than if you are doing it all game.

So for all those reasons that is why I believe we are going to see more of the same of the basic Pittsburgh strategy this week. What do YOU think?
Its probably the smarter way to play the pats although I think he will still blitz a little. The pitts and to some extent the bengal games were good game plans to slow down the pats. The pats offense remained patient and eventually paid off. But there is no reason to not stick with it if you are playing the pats. If i were pittsburgh, i would be frustrated how many 3rd downs we converted and twice with brady running. It wont happen all the time and eventually the 3rd down numbers will fall.So its prudent we are able to run the ball better. We shouldnt be in so many 3rd downs.
It also shows how much valuable edelman is in this offense. Pitt game wouldve been different without him even with gronk and bennett.
the 2010 game had various issues , the big ones being 3 and 4 man rush getting to brady and JMcD not running the ball at all.
 
@patfanken have you noticed that the majority of running plays that James White has had success on have come when the Pats have rolled out 12 personnel? I don't get the All-22 but, based on what I can see pre-snap on those plays, that seems to be the personnel that the running game has had the most success in. I ask this because this is the package I expect the Pats to throw at Buffalo early on tomorrow.

Kontra, you moron. Don't you realize that the NYJFL has interns or somebody reading these Pats forums?
When they find out we've been using 12 on offense we'll be fined & lose draft picks!
 
My strategy for the day falls on these 5 keys:
1. Play good offense
2. Play good defense
3. Limit turnovers
4. Force turnovers
5. Score more than they do

I firmly believe if we execute these 5 keys we may win
 
The Bills have a lot of guys out on their offense. I envision a low scoring game where our defense completely shuts them down. On offense, we get an early lead and then run Blount and White down the field all day long, eating up the clock. They are forced to make a couple of risky throws in the second half, giving us some opportunities at interceptions that we will hopefully take advantage of. I expect some special teams improvements this game as well, although honestly that's a pretty low bar after last week.
 
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