A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

[Helmet2Helmet]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

lol, I don't think so tim.

Yes, but you have nothing to support that besides, "lol."

 

[Ivan]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent. We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

Man, you nailed it. If it wasn't for all of the money they have poured into free agency and the success of all those free agents they would have sucked for the past 12 years.

 

[BennyBledsoe]

re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

I think it's more a problem with his success in drafting OTHER positions that when he blows so many WR/DB picks...we wonder how the hell can this guy who's so good at other positions, blow these two?

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

"Notes:
A first rounder should become an elite NFL player. "

There have been about 160 1st round picks in the last 5 years. Even if only half were elite players, that would mean that there should be 80 elite players who have been in the league 5 years or less. Then there probably be another 40 elite players (remaining from the next 160) who had been in the league 5-10 years.

By this logic, there are at least 120 elite first round players in the league

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

As I posted earlier, drafting poorly at a position can change very quickly.

We had 8 consecutive Belichick drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a LB. So we should pass on Mayo, Spikes and Hightower.

We had 10 consecutive Belichick drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a TE, unless we use a 1st round pick, and even then, they're just solid, but somewhat disappointing based on their draft position. So we should pass on Gronkowski and Hernandez.

We had 11 consecutive drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a RB. So we should pass on Vereen and Ridley.

There's no denying that our track record drafting WRs and DBs under Belichick hasn't been great. (though the success of some of the DBs is debated) However, there's also no denying we didn't have much success drafting RBs, LBs or TEs for years until we started hitting paydirt. We can't ignore a position based on the draft history. If we did, some of our best young players wouldn't be on our team right now.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

To answer the question:why BB so bad at drafting WRs and CBs?

It's to give Fred something to start threads about. If he was good at doing that Fred would have one less thing to start threads about.

 

[jmt57]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

We now have history etched in stone for the last 10-12 years and what it shows in respect to the patriots is that they are an average to below avergae team drafting talent. We know that the owners are pretty tight with the bonus money which has created some horrific personnell decisions such as Samuel, Branch & Givens to name a few. the salary cap is crap it's the bonus money that matters and the Krafts have been trying to win on the cheao for a while now. The day of reckoning is coming soon than you think.

Please compare each of the points you made to those of the 31 other NFL teams.

Frankly, I consider every sentence that you wrote to be utter and complete B.S.; I'm especially surprised that there are still any Felger disciples out there clinging on to the ridiculous clichés that "the cap is crap" and that "Kraft is cheap". Twelve years later and here you are still wishing, hoping and waiting for the "day or reckoning" to come any day, with baited breath?

My guess is that you are either (a) a fan of another team, (b) have been brainwashed by spending too much time listening to fans of other teams, (c) simply don't truly pay a whole lot of attention to the NFL as a whole and the Patriots in particular, or (d) never figured out that building a roster in the NFL is vastly different from doing so for a major league baseball team.

 

[Brady6]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

Offensive Guard: 83%
Tight End: 69%
Linebacker: 68%
Center: 60%
Cornerback: 60% (Highest # of 1st round picks over 10 year period)
Running Back: 57%
Offensive Tackle: 54%
Quarterback: 47%
Safety: 47%
Defensive End: 46%
Defensive Tackle: 44%
Wide Receiver: 36%

BB really is not any worse than the rest of the GM's. I cannot think of a time he had missed on and the picks he has taking risks with and missed I would say he has made up for with finding gems in other rounds and UDFA.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

The Patriots have a dismal record of drafting/developing WRs and DBs during the BB era. That is the big takeaway here, and it's news to nobody.

I was curious and actually looked up Chad Jackson... he's on the Omaha Nighthawks in the UFL. Fantastic pick.

It's pretty sad that letting Asante walk is now considered a huge blunder by the organization.

Actually, the Patriots record of drafting/developing DBs and WRs is not dismal during the BB era. Only people who don't know the success rates of picks in general think that the Pats have been dismal.

3 of 8 picks for WRs have been successes with two more having made some contributions. The verdict is still out on 1 pick.

6 of 25 DB picks were successes, 6 more provided some contributions. 5 more the verdict is still out on.. 8 of them were failures.

So, better than 33% on the WRs and better than 25% of the DB draft picks.

Please let me know how other teams have done..

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

As I posted earlier, drafting poorly at a position can change very quickly.

We had 8 consecutive Belichick drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a LB. So we should pass on Mayo, Spikes and Hightower.

We had 10 consecutive Belichick drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a TE, unless we use a 1st round pick, and even then, they're just solid, but somewhat disappointing based on their draft position. So we should pass on Gronkowski and Hernandez.

We had 11 consecutive drafts that showed we can't draft and develop a RB. So we should pass on Vereen and Ridley.

There's no denying that our track record drafting WRs and DBs under Belichick hasn't been great. (though the success of some of the DBs is debated) However, there's also no denying we didn't have much success drafting RBs, LBs or TEs for years until we started hitting paydirt. We can't ignore a position based on the draft history. If we did, some of our best young players wouldn't be on our team right now.

There is a huge problem with your statements. In no case did the Pats draft any one position consecutively for 8, 10 or 12 drafts. So to say that they "couldn't draft and develop a (name position) " is patently false. Just because they didn't draft a position doesn't mean they couldn't.

Had they actually drafted any one of those positions for any consecutive number of years, I might agree with you.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

Offensive Guard: 83%
Tight End: 69%
Linebacker: 68%
Center: 60%
Cornerback: 60% (Highest # of 1st round picks over 10 year period)
Running Back: 57%
Offensive Tackle: 54%
Quarterback: 47%
Safety: 47%
Defensive End: 46%
Defensive Tackle: 44%
Wide Receiver: 36%

BB really is not any worse than the rest of the GM's. I cannot think of a time he had missed on and the picks he has taking risks with and missed I would say he has made up for with finding gems in other rounds and UDFA.

What is this exactly and where did you get it from? Could you please site your source?

 

[Brady6]

A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs and

What is this exactly and where did you get it from? Could you please site your source?

Walter Football hit rate by position

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

The Patriots have a dismal record of drafting/developing WRs and DBs during the BB era. That is the big takeaway here, and it's news to nobody.

I was curious and actually looked up Chad Jackson... he's on the Omaha Nighthawks in the UFL. Fantastic pick.

It's pretty sad that letting Asante walk is now considered a huge blunder by the organization.

Green Bay is looked at by many as the "gold standard" when it comes to picking WRs. So....

2011 2 32 64 Randall Cobb Kentucky
2008 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson Kansas State
2008 7 10 217 Brett Swain San Diego State
2007 3 14 78 James Jones San Jose State
2007 5 20 157 David Clowney Virginia Tech
2006 2 20 52 Greg Jennings Western Michigan
2006 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers Texas Christian
2005 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Texas A&M
2005 6 21 195 Craig Bragg UCLA
2003 7 39 253 DeAndrew Rubin South Florida
2003 7 42 256 Carl Ford Toledo
2002 1 20 20 Javon Walker Florida State
2001 2 10 41 Robert Ferguson Texas A&M
2001 6 35 198 David Martin Tennessee

That's 14 WRs drafted starting in 2001.

6 of 14 were taken in rounds 1 or 2
2 of 14 were taken in rounds 3 or 4
6 of 14 were taken in rounds 5-6-7

Not one hit came from rounds 5-7
Out of rounds 3-4, Rodgers didn't even make the cut in his first year, while Jones has been a successful pick.

Where the Packers have made their bones has been in rounds 1-2

Ferguson
Walker
Murphy
Jennings
Nelson
Cobb

They are, effectively, 3-2 with second round picks (Cobb/Nelson/Jennings v. Murphy/Ferguson), although Ferguson is a disappointment as opposed to a bust.


The big takeway is, really, that the difference between the Packers and the Patriots, when it comes to drafting WR, is that the Patriots choose poorly in 2006 and the Packers reaped the rewards. That's really the big difference.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs and

Walter Football hit rate by position

I understand you can't post links yet, but you can post the address without the "http://www." Part.

When taking something from another site, you really should put some kind of message stating what it is we're looking at and where you got it from since it is their body of work.

 

[Brady6]

A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs and

I understand you can't post links yet, but you can post the address without the "http://www." Part.

When taking something from another site, you really should put some kind of message stating what it is we're looking at and where you got it from since it is their body of work.

Ok thanks for the information.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs and

Ok thanks for the information.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../319672-copyrighted-material-please-read.html

If you can't post the link to the site,please PM one of the moderators with the url and we can do that for you.

Thanks

 

[DW Toys]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

Green Bay is looked at by many as the "gold standard" when it comes to picking WRs. So....

2011 2 32 64 Randall Cobb Kentucky
2008 2 5 36 Jordy Nelson Kansas State
2008 7 10 217 Brett Swain San Diego State
2007 3 14 78 James Jones San Jose State
2007 5 20 157 David Clowney Virginia Tech
2006 2 20 52 Greg Jennings Western Michigan
2006 4 7 104 Cory Rodgers Texas Christian
2005 2 26 58 Terrence Murphy Texas A&M
2005 6 21 195 Craig Bragg UCLA
2003 7 39 253 DeAndrew Rubin South Florida
2003 7 42 256 Carl Ford Toledo
2002 1 20 20 Javon Walker Florida State
2001 2 10 41 Robert Ferguson Texas A&M
2001 6 35 198 David Martin Tennessee

That's 14 WRs drafted starting in 2001.

6 of 14 were taken in rounds 1 or 2
2 of 14 were taken in rounds 3 or 4
6 of 14 were taken in rounds 5-6-7

Not one hit came from rounds 5-7
Out of rounds 3-4, Rodgers didn't even make the cut in his first year, while Jones has been a successful pick.

Where the Packers have made their bones has been in rounds 1-2

Ferguson
Walker
Murphy
Jennings
Nelson
Cobb

They are, effectively, 3-2 with second round picks (Cobb/Nelson/Jennings v. Murphy/Ferguson), although Ferguson is a disappointment as opposed to a bust.


The big takeway is, really, that the difference between the Packers and the Patriots, when it comes to drafting WR, is that the Patriots choose poorly in 2006 and the Packers reaped the rewards. That's really the big difference.

Great post, That you for the effort.Well thought out.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

It's amazing how a team drafting at the bottom of most drafts for 12 years manages to end up at the top with winning records and playoff appearances while drafting below average.

Could someone tell me how that's possible?

Also, you want us to stick ourselves with all sorts of dead money for players who don't work out. You're a Daniel Snyder fan?

Cousin, How? In my humble opinion it is the fact that BB can find FA's or trades for certain positions and that is his strong point. Picking up that fill in talent. Does everyone work? No but take a kid like Sterling Moore. He got decent production out of a guy that was not a great CB but stepped up for even a half a year.

Yep there are the Ocho Cincos and Hainesworths, but then there are the Harrisons, the Welkers, the Vrabels and the Moss's. To the lesser extent the Bodden's, the Faurias, the Gaffney's, the Waters, the Woodheads have all contributed, even Talib who the jury is still out. I will take a few misses but percentage wise, The Draft on specific positions has been much more suspect at best.

Let's do this. Look at his Trades and FA pick ups that played and match them up to his Draft Choices (specifically WR and DB). See the success/fail ratio.

His Draft record is only mediocre. All those who say different don't pay attention. He is better at finding veterans and UDFA. His Draft record success does not mirror his on the field success. You have a point, we are always don't the Draft board. He has had one or two stellar Draft years and then blows three or four. You can't always win but in my study, the proof of the DBs and WR is fact.
DW Toys

 

[JackBauer]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

His Draft record is only mediocre. All those who say different don't pay attention. He is better at finding veterans and UDFA. His Draft record success does not mirror his on the field success. You have a point, we are always don't the Draft board. He has had one or two stellar Draft years and then blows three or four. You can't always win but in my study, the proof of the DBs and WR is fact.
DW Toys

You keep repeating this, but it isn't true. There were down years from 2006-09 (although 2007 is a bit of an exception if you account for the value of trading picks for proven commodities), but the same can be said for any team/GM in the league.

 

[PatsFanNM]

Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd

All you need to know how random the draft is in terms of success and failure is the Pats 2000 draft -- six almost utter failures (their number one pick, Adrian Klemm, started in 10 games over five years) in the first five rounds.

Of course, the Pats did okay with their second sixth-round pick in 2000, number 199. May have made up for a lot of other mistakes. But it illustrates how difficult it is to make good analyses based on college careers, otherwise Brady would have gone much earlier.

Given how lousy BB is a drafter he must be a really good coach: by far the best regular-season record since 2001 (20 games better than the second-best Steelers). Not bad at getting into Super Bowls, either.