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A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by DW Toys, Feb 16, 2013.

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  1. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Sorry should have said DB ABOVE.
    Why is it shaky ground when the Pats two biggest needs in the 2013 season might be DB and WR? Why their track record the last 10 years should dictate them trying FA's or Trades instead of wasting Draft picks on those positions they really do not have a clue about for some strange reason:

    I have made an evaluation chart of the Pats DB and WR picks over 10 years:

    A+=12
    A=11
    A-=10
    B+=9
    B=8
    B-=7
    C+=6
    C=5
    C-=4
    D+=3
    D=2
    D-=1
    F=0

    Notes:
    A first rounder should become an elite NFL player.

    A second round pick a very good player with some Pro Bowl opportunity

    Understand that a third round Draft pick is determined to be a long term NFL starter to warrant that pick.

    Fourth rounders should be high percentage developmental or that medically or personal issue challenged higher Draft value player who slips.

    Fifth to seventh rounders are a little of the above and smaller school gambles.

    Drafted players should fall into each category by where the Team expected his talent and skill set and thus uses that round to Draft said player.


    The Pats have chosen 21 DBs in the last 10 years.
    I have put what I felt was a fair grade on these DB’s:



    Asante Samuel
    - Exremely good-Typical arrogant F.O. move to let him walk and we are still paying that fine today=B+
    Eugene Wilson-Mediocre-Unexpected S conversion. A few good games=C
    Christian Morton=F
    Dexter Reid=F
    Guss Scott=F
    James Sanders-Fringe guy and with this forum's favorite verb “serviceable” (I did not think so, nor did BB in the end) Just so no one complains=C-
    Ellis Hobbs-Way too small and brittle but Drafted because of the old Pats Favorite B.S. line “quick twitch” baloney excuse for Drafting smurf DB’s. Played hurt as a plus (see Dowling. Can we switch hearts?) . Made some plays. Some good games and some bad=C+
    Willie Andrews-Smoke um if ya got em=F
    Mike Richardson=F
    Brandon Meriweather-Pretty stupid human-Barely still in the league. Wastefull high end pick so he loses big points=D
    Matt Slater-No where near a DB, No where near a WR-Very good on special Teams only=B
    Jonathan Wilhite=D-
    Terrence Wheatley-Way to high a pick for this epic Draft waste=D-
    Darius Butler= (SECOND ROUNDER?!!!!!Nyet)=F
    Patrick Chung- A hard hitting , non covering, always injured, first round pick. For that wasted pick part I give him a =D
    Devin McCourty-Became a failure at CB. Salvaged career with decent S (NOT GREAT!!!)=C
    Ras-I Dowling-Who knows? If he ever hits the field he will be fresh!=D
    Malcolm Williams-Did not even start in college????=F
    Tavon Wilson-Wayyyyyyyyy too high of a Draft slot for this kid. Could have been taken in the fourth. Bill got snookered by rumors. That makes his pick a bad value but o.k. …….he might improve=C
    Nate Ebner- Shot in the dark pick. Made the squad so I give him a =D+
    Alfonzo Dennard-Great value pick. Could be the Tom Brady type pick version on Defense at least for now. Could be in the league a long time=B

    The Pats grade for Drafting DB’s the last 10 years has been a dismal 2.8 grade or slightly higher than D.


    The Pats have Drafted only 7 WR in the last ten years:

    Bethel Johnson
    -Some plays. Too bad. Decent kid=C-
    P.K. Sam=F
    Chad Jackson-Nuff said. I was a supporter but…=F
    Brandon Tate-Not much for a third round pick. Not impressive in college either. Had some returns for a postive. A clear miss for a third rounder=D+
    Taylor Price=F
    Julian Edelman-Good project showing results if he can ever get healthy=B
    Jeremy Ebert-Oh yeah, we might as well Draft a WR as we have one left=F

    The Pats grade for Drafting WR’s the last 10 years has been a dismal 2.1 grade or slightly lower than the less than stellar DBs.

    Who out their still contends that the Pats should Draft DB’s or WR’s high on Draft day?
    DW Toys
  2. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Your evaluation is a terrible one, and there's not much reasonable about it.
  3. TomPatriot

    TomPatriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I stopped reading after the Asante Samuel evaluation.
  4. CheeseMonkeys

    CheeseMonkeys Rookie

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I don't understand what warrants the rude comments above. It wasn't really that bad of an evaluation.

    I disagree that a first round pick should become elite. A top 10/15 pick should become elite and the rest of the first rounders should become productive starters.

    Some of your grades are questionable though. I would grade Chung and McCourty higher. Dennard and Samuel should both get an 'A'. Meriweather should probably get a 'C-'.
  5. Brady2Moss

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I wanted to stop reading after the Asante evaluation, but knew some comedic gold could be found below and you didn't disappoint!

    Devin McCourty a former pro bowler, who had a down sophomore year, and by all accounts a great year at both CB and Safety in his third year is given the same grade as a rookie Safety who barely played this year and literally lost us a game single handedly snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

    Bravo sir.

    LMAO!
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Asante Samuel, a 4th round pick who's also a 4 time Pro Bowler and 1 time All Pro, gets a B+

    Patrick Chung somehow became a first round pick.

    Ellis Hobbs, who only missed one game in New England, was "brittle"

    James Sanders, who played 6 years in New England and was given a second contract by BB, wasn't "serviceable" and BB agreed with DW (so explain the contract....).


    There are more, but those were enough to put the lie to the notion of this being a "reasonable" draft evaluation.
  7. Lamanai

    Lamanai Rookie

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I think your subjective assessments/expectations are unrealistic. About a third of first rounders and half of second rounders are busts. To expect a first rounder to be "elite", for second rounders to be "pro bowl possible" and third rounders to be "long term starters" is absurd.

    I think you are of the opinion that BB has been poor at drafting DBs and WR (and I happen to agree), but I think you are designing a process to back fill your theory.

    I agree with your premise, but remain wholly unconvinced of your method for proving it.
  8. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    The whole think is a nightmare.
  9. Brady2Moss

    Brady2Moss Rookie

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    You would think being an "excellent pick" and the object of the front offices massive arrogance would at least curve him up to an A-.

    :D
  10. Crazy Patriot Guy

    Crazy Patriot Guy Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I won't debate the rating given to each player we've taken, I simply don't agree with the idea that we shouldn't draft a WR or DB solely based on our past picks.

    Before 2010, we had taken two 1st round TEs in Graham and Watson. While both were solid Pats, they never lived up to what we hoped. Add in the later round picks we used and the TE position was somewhat of a wasted one in 10 Belichick drafts. That changed drastically in a span of 3 rounds with Gronk and Hernandez.

    By my count, we were 0-6 in trying to develop a RB through the draft. When the biggest success is Laurence Maroney, that's a bad thing. So we waste a 2nd AND 3rd round pick in 2011 on the RB position, knowing full well we don't draft well at that spot? The results in just year 2 was 1,714 yards from scrimmage and 16 TDs.

    I don't totally dismiss the fact that our track record at certain positions in the draft isn't very good but as we've seen, things can change quickly. And I don't think we should pass on someone like Robert Woods (just using him as an example) because a WR we drafted back when Woods was 13 years old didn't pan out for us.
  11. Salva135

    Salva135 Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    The Patriots have a dismal record of drafting/developing WRs and DBs during the BB era. That is the big takeaway here, and it's news to nobody.

    I was curious and actually looked up Chad Jackson... he's on the Omaha Nighthawks in the UFL. Fantastic pick.

    It's pretty sad that letting Asante walk is now considered a huge blunder by the organization.
  12. Helmet2Helmet

    Helmet2Helmet Banned

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Today I learned that DW Toys believes the NFL gets an influx of 96 high caliber starters per draft.
  13. betterthanthealternative

    betterthanthealternative Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Posts don't warrant rude comments. If a post is made with which a person disagrees, then an alternative view can be offered, or the original post can be ignored. When, instead, the post and/or the person are attacked, it is a reflection of the respondent, not a reflection of the quality of the original post. And its a shame, because this approach reduces the quality and the potential of every conversation. We all are witness to it in our workplaces and in "town square" of the political arenas.
  14. Brady2Moss

    Brady2Moss Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    There is no potential for quality conversation here when the starting point is so ill-thought-out and is not an accurate representation of reality.
  15. Claremonster

    Claremonster Banned

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    BB should let McD pick the wr's...he did a good job in Denver.
  16. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    #54 Jersey
    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    That's it pretty much right here folks.
  17. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    He seemingly had a fair bit of say in the Chad Jackson debacle too, let's not forget.
  18. FredFromDartmouth

    FredFromDartmouth Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Eugene Wilson was one of the best free safeties that BB ever drafted. B or B+. He NEVER missed a tackle..ahem...unlike some other FS the Patriots hired and was great in coverage.

    The most important skill a safety must have is tackling and Wilson excelled.
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    No more than any OC has on giving an opinion on an offensive player. We know McDaniel worked out CJ. We do not know what his opinion was.
    Also BB would lean a lot more heavily on his biuddy Meyer's opinion of work ethic and smarts (the reasons he failed) than in what McDaniel could cull about those areas in a workout.
    These old wives tales of Patsfans.com have a life of their own.:rolleyes:
  20. BritPat

    BritPat Rookie

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    There were plenty of stories pre-Draft in 2006 about McDaniels pushing for Jackson, on here and on the web.

    Its no coincidence that after we cut him, he rocked up in Denver - where McDaniels was coaching.

    Unless I dreamt the whole McKid as HC thing and this is nothing but an episode of Dallas?
  21. supafly

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I can't possibly agree with the following:

    McCourty as a "C"---he has played very well in 2/3 seasons, and in both of those seasons he has warranted a 1st round pick status. I would have definitely given him a solid "B."

    Ellis Hobbs as a "C+"---while Hobbs was never going to be a good #1 CB, he was extremely effective as a CB2 or CB3 at the worst. This isn't even taking into account his ST play either. I would move that up to a solid "C."

    Meriweather as a "C-"---he freelanced and played out of position, and he did not warrant BOTH probowl votes, but he certainly deserved one of them in my opinion, and during his first 3 seasons of 2008-2010 only Troy Polamalu had more turnovers in the league. Meriweather deserves a solid "C" also.
  22. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    I think it would be helpful to take a look at the success ratio percentage for picks in the first, second, and third rounds when you get a chance. They aren't nearly as high as you may think. If you took this into account you may be able to understand the hit/miss exercise that is the NFL draft.

    I agree with you on some level that these particular positions haven't panned out enough, but I would guess that we've had a much better success rate at many other positions to balance that out.

    To answer your question I would still hope that Belichick addresses these positions through the draft again, yes, because that's probably the only way we're going to get a long term starter. The rate and gamble of FA's isn't much better, probably worse when you factor in their overinflated cost.
  23. BlitzFritz

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    The thesis from the OP is a good one -- the Pats have NOT done well drafting DBs and WRs. (We knew this already I think).

    The grades are not reasonable for the picks that worked out (Eugene Wilson, Asante, etc).

    I personally am more interested in WHY the NEP struggle so mightily ? I mean look at high value picks repeatedly used in the secondary. Merriweather, Dowling, Butler, etc). Its frickin frustrating.

    And I do not want to see them pick a WR before 4th round, since EVERY WR washes out in our offense.

    Its just an unbelievable run on failure, people. This thread is probably WHY WE HAVE NOT WON ANOTHER SB since 2004.

    (okay maybe i had too much coffee, but WTF)

    -- FRITZ
  24. Froob

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    This evaluation:Z-
  25. FCB02062

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Fair assessment by the op, and trifling over whether or not mccourty, merriweather, or whoever warrants a B instead of a C is pretty trivial. We all know that better drafting and signing higher quality free agents (and not the old last legs bldg 19 variety - springs, galloway, et al.) would have netted Brady anotber super bowl....wait, must be a spoiled pats fan.....
  26. DarrylS

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Some perspective that the Draft is a crap shoot, has not been updated for the 12 draft... but the idea is obvious.

  27. Lamanai

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    Re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB and WR picks the last 10 years.

    Here is one 10-yr study that indicates about a 50% bust rate for 2nd rounders.

    I suppose some of it might be subjective, such as what constitutes a bust or an impact player, but I think it is clear. As the author states:

    "...it doesn't hide the fact that it is much harder to get impact players in the second round than most Draftniks can imagine. Fans and Draftniks need to look at the second round as it is a bit of a coinflip, but as always teams make really dumb second-round picks, which should never have happened."

    WalterFootball.com: NFL Draftology 408: The 10-Year NFL Draft Study: Round 2
  28. FredFromDartmouth

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    Why is BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

    I think it is pretty obvious that BB has an abysmal record drafting WRs and DBs but no one has discussed why this is the case.

    My pet theory is that BB tries to draft super Boy Scouts such as Ras-I Dowling but that just does not work for DBs and especially WRs. The best WRs and DBs have huge egos and most are primadonnas or worse.

    Of course this does not explain one of BB's worst draft gaff's ever--taking Brandon "Sharon" Tate instead of Mike Wallace but in general I think the problem is BB's standards are too high for those guys.

    Also you have to wonder about the scouting. If there a scouting problem or did BB overrule the scouts on some of these disasters (I seems to remember rumors to this effect). How can his scouts be so high on a WR yet by day two or three of Camp it is pretty obvious that the guy cannot get open?
  29. RayClay

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

    It's because there is a salary cap.
  30. Snake Eyes

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    re: A "Reasonable" Draft evaluation on Pats DB or why BB so bad at drafting WRs andd CBs?

    The salary cap might get in the way of signing big name WRs and CBs but how does it get in the way of drafting one?
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