manxman2601
PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club
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Normally I'm not in favour of pre-draft trade involving picks rather than players but the more I think about this one, the more it makes sense to me, both from a Patriots perspective and from the perspective of the other team. Speaking of which...
The Arizona Cardinals sit at #13 in the draft. They do not have a second round pick. What they do have is a pretty big need for a LT specifically and OL generally. They also need a No2 WR and a pass rusher. Their pick No13 is worth 1150 points. Our picks #27 and #48 are worth 1100 points and I think the advantage to the Cards of picking up a second rounder outweighs the loss of 50 points in trade value (if necessary, we could add a player to make up the difference (Ron Brace or Jermaine Cunningham spring to mind).
Why it benefits the Cardinals: Unless they really like DeCastro and Reiff, there would be more benefit to trading down to #27 and picking up a J Martin, Mike Adams, Peter Konz or Kevin Zeitler along with a second round pick than staying put and getting Reiff/DeCastro and then fighting over scraps to fill out their roster with the rest of their draft. The second round could net them either a pass rusher or WR (Ronnell Lewis/Mohamed Sanu for example). And there's no guarantee that Reiff and Decastro will be there with the Bills and Chiefs picking ahead of them.
Why it benefits the Patriots: We don't know what the Pats board looks like but going by need/BPA let's assume that Brockers/Cox/Barron/Kirkpatrick are fairly high on it. Pick 13 puts us ahead of most teams likely to draft those players. One, maybe two might be gone but all four won't be. Now this is why it needs to be a pre-draft trade. If on draft day, the Patriots are sitting at #13 and a number of their highly rated prospects are still available, they are in a position to trade back incrementally until the value of what's still available makes it necessary to make the pick. We also have pick #31 available that acts as a backstop should another quality player fall or we could use #31 to trade back into the second round either picking up additional picks or picks next year.
So in a nutshell:
This trade puts in perfect position to run the draft board based on the prospects we like.
The only loss is a second rounder (we still have another one).
We can still add picks by trading back from #13 or #31
If an elite player falls like Richardson or DeCastro's available, then we have that option too.
We are no longer subject to the decisions of teams ahead of us but are masters of our own draft destiny.
I think this would be a win for the Patriots and might be seen by the Cards organisation as a necessary evil to get the best value out of this draft.
Thoughts?
The Arizona Cardinals sit at #13 in the draft. They do not have a second round pick. What they do have is a pretty big need for a LT specifically and OL generally. They also need a No2 WR and a pass rusher. Their pick No13 is worth 1150 points. Our picks #27 and #48 are worth 1100 points and I think the advantage to the Cards of picking up a second rounder outweighs the loss of 50 points in trade value (if necessary, we could add a player to make up the difference (Ron Brace or Jermaine Cunningham spring to mind).
Why it benefits the Cardinals: Unless they really like DeCastro and Reiff, there would be more benefit to trading down to #27 and picking up a J Martin, Mike Adams, Peter Konz or Kevin Zeitler along with a second round pick than staying put and getting Reiff/DeCastro and then fighting over scraps to fill out their roster with the rest of their draft. The second round could net them either a pass rusher or WR (Ronnell Lewis/Mohamed Sanu for example). And there's no guarantee that Reiff and Decastro will be there with the Bills and Chiefs picking ahead of them.
Why it benefits the Patriots: We don't know what the Pats board looks like but going by need/BPA let's assume that Brockers/Cox/Barron/Kirkpatrick are fairly high on it. Pick 13 puts us ahead of most teams likely to draft those players. One, maybe two might be gone but all four won't be. Now this is why it needs to be a pre-draft trade. If on draft day, the Patriots are sitting at #13 and a number of their highly rated prospects are still available, they are in a position to trade back incrementally until the value of what's still available makes it necessary to make the pick. We also have pick #31 available that acts as a backstop should another quality player fall or we could use #31 to trade back into the second round either picking up additional picks or picks next year.
So in a nutshell:
This trade puts in perfect position to run the draft board based on the prospects we like.
The only loss is a second rounder (we still have another one).
We can still add picks by trading back from #13 or #31
If an elite player falls like Richardson or DeCastro's available, then we have that option too.
We are no longer subject to the decisions of teams ahead of us but are masters of our own draft destiny.
I think this would be a win for the Patriots and might be seen by the Cards organisation as a necessary evil to get the best value out of this draft.
Thoughts?
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