A disclaimer about Cassel's back to back 400 yd games

[Metaphors]

They aren't great pass defenses, they're ranked 19th and 21st in passer rating allowed.

But still :

Jets defense allows 87.7 passer rating, Cassel had a 103.4.
Dolphins defense allows 89.9 passer rating, Cassel had a 114.0.

Pittsburgh allows a 71.1, we'll see what happens.

Interesting numbers. When looking at Cassel, I like to look at his development since he has been a moving target through the year.

- First couple of games, he had a pretty restricted gameplan to work with so he was starting from zero.

- Through the SD game, the offense expanded a little but he was reluctant to throw through or over coverage. The volatility on the offensive line didn't help.

- Against Denver and the Rams, he started to loosen up. His footwork stabilized and his throwing motion became more repetitive.

- He made the turn in the Indy and Buffalo games. The offensive line play improved and he really found his comfort level. He was on time and decisive with his throws...even into coverage. His sense in the pocket made a huge leap and the sacks came down as a result.

- The first half of the Jets game found the same lousy playcalling that lost the Indy game. Putting Cassel almost exclusively in the shotgun and letting him wing it around was a huge step in his development. He started attacking all areas of the field. Huge days from Watson and Gaffney meant that Cassel was able read the field quickly and accurately instead of locking in on Moss trying to come back in the game.

- Obviously the game yesterday was tremendous. Continuing the attack mentality from the Jets game, Cassel was a rock in what effectively was his first playoff game...on the road no less. The thing that struck me was that his throws all had the correct pace and altitude for the situation. Take the TDs to Moss...rocket that gives Moss an opportunity for YAC, lob to the back of the end zone and a jump ball slightly underthrown to give Moss a chance to get position and elevate. Really a stellar effort.

While the defenses on this list are not top-notch, you can see how Cassel has made leaps and bounds to get where he is today. That being said, Cassel still has a fatal flaw that needs to be corrected. When pressured, he prematurely takes his eyes from downfield and tucks the ball away. The sack on 3rd and 2 after the Meriweather int was a prime example of this. That could be problematic against the Steelers. If Cassel can hang in that extra half-second against a big blitz, someone will almost certainly come free for an easy gain.

If Cassel comes up big against the Steelers, limiting the sacks while getting TDs instead of FGs early, then I think you can reasonably project that he should be effective in the remaining 4 games and into the playoffs. A stinker against Pitt could indicate that he still has some holes that a pressing defense can expose and exploit. Needless to say this is a huge game for both the Pats and Cassel.

 

[T_Brady12]

In Matt Cassel's defense, only Kurt Warner threw for over 400 yards against the Jets. And, this was after the Cards were down 34-0 after the first half.

And no quarterback has thrown for over 400 yards against the Dolphins this season.

Infact, true story, Matt Cassel's 400 yard game marked the first time in 10 years to the date that the Dolphins allowed a 400 yard game... oddly enough, it was Drew Bledsoe who threw for 423 yards in a 26-23 win over Miami on November 23rd 1998.

 

[upstater1]

It tells me the Jets have a suspect pass defense that can't stop the Pats or the Titans when they know we're running. The Jets have a great run defense, but I don't think their pass defense scares anyone.

When they know we're passing, you mean?

Any team with a more than one score lead will tend to give up additional passing yards, if only because they are protecting the deep ball more AND the other team isn't running the ball as much.

 

[upstater1]

Just to give some perspective: in the years that New England went 28-4 and won 2 Super Bowls, we were #17 in pass defense the first year, and #31 the second year.

 

[Yehoodi]

I do this only to combat the morons who want to trade Brady (who, ironically, are the same folks who wanted to cut Cassel a couple months ago). I don't do this to take anything from Cassel, who has been a hero...

But take the 400 yard passing games with a grain of salt, it was done against 2 of the worst passing defenses in the league:

ESPN - NFL Football Statistics and League Leaders - National Football League

Jets are 26th and Miami is 28th in the league in passing yards allowed. Of course, Cassel made those #s worse by himself, but you get my point. The biggest test comes this weekend against the top passing defense in the league. I think Cassel and McD will pass that test, and we'll probably hear more clamoring for shipping Brady, but in the meantime, curb your enthusiasm.

Oh, and while you're all there on that stat page, take a look that the Patriots much maligned passing defense is far better than Miami or NYJ at 18th in the league.

First, only five, yah you heard me correctly - just five, QBs in the HISTORY of the NFL have accomplished what Matt Cassel has done in the last two games and the games are ONLY his 9th and 10th start since highschool, how may QBs could of done that ???

Second, in the game against the Jets, was the FIRST time in HISTORY that a QB has thrown for 400+ yards and ran for more than 60+ yards. Translation NO QB EVER has done that . .. . PERIOD

neither of these points are subject to negoiation, they are just the plan facts whether or not you want to avoid them or try to diminish them . . .

These aren't just solid good games that you tap the guy on the shoulder, they are historic accomplishments, which I hope even the most ardent "we got keep Brady cause he won on '04" enthuastics should realize . . .

I love Tom Brady as much as the next guy and have him on my Avatar, but the reality of life is we DO NOT know about his rehab, true, its probably a 95% chance he will be 100% again. . . But I am one for doing what every is necessary to keep Cassel for next year at least insofar as insurance to make sure TB is back to is ole self. I for one am NOT interested is seeing Cassel leave and to keep TB "cuase he our guy man" only to see in that he regrettably fall into that 5% class of not being his ole self and/or we have to turn to O'Connell next year . . .

I say franchise Cassel for one year, then either trade him midseason (once TB gets his sealegs back) or don't sign him at the end of next year . . .

hey its a tough choice and the Pats regrettable aren't going to know the extent of TB's rehab once FA comes around, but my vote is to franchise Cassel, presuming he continue to produce. . .

 

[BelichickFan]

Everything works together, Pittsburgh is tied with Miami for 22/23 in points scored so teams haven't needed to go balls out trying to score against Pittsburgh in scoring fests. We won't use and abuse them but they aren't inpenetratable either.

 

[everlong]

Anybody find a stat for how QBs do the week following back to back 400 yard performances?

I have a feeling it's not good. It's just too hard in this league to keep up with that pace. I hope Cassel has at least a decent game because we really need this one (really every game give the playoff tie breakers are against us).

I also hope he gets down this week because the Steelers will punish him going for extra yards.

 

[BradyManny]

When they know we're passing, you mean?

Any team with a more than one score lead will tend to give up additional passing yards, if only because they are protecting the deep ball more AND the other team isn't running the ball as much.

We drove the ball on them every drive of them game, not just when we were behind. If it weren't for a few miscues in that first half, we wouldn't have been down in the first place. I do not fear the Jets pass defense in the least if we come against them in the playoffs.

 

[everlong]

Cassel is the first player to achieve the feat since Tennessee's Billy Volek did it in 2004 (426 yards on 12/13/04 and 492 yards on 12/19/04). In addition to Volek, the other NFL passers to have achieved the feat are San Diego's Dan Fouts in 1982 (444 yards on 12/11/82 and 435 yards on 12/20/82), Miami's Dan Marino in 1984 (470 yards on 12/2/84 and 404 yards on 12/9/84) and the New York Giants' Phil Simms in 1985 (432 yards on 10/6/85 and 513 yards on 10/13/85).

Following week:

Volek 8/20 111 yards 0 TDs 2 INTs
Fouts 18/30 298 yards 5 TDs 1 INT
Marino 23/40 340 Yards 4 TDs 2 INTs

Simms threw for 185 and the Giants won but profootball reference doesn't have all the stats on this game.

So are you a Volek, Simms, or a Fouts or Marino?

I'll take Simms and one SB trophy.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

look at it bigger picture.....

in the first 5 games, the pats scored more than 20 once (15.8 avg)
in the last 6 games, the pats have scored less than 20 once (28.0 avg)

I think you will see the steelers really try to blitz cassel........it will be a test to see what he can do when having to think quick

I also believe you will see the pats play hurry-up and mix up the counts

 

[BradyManny]

I guess Belichick isn't ready to turn the franchise over to Cassel yet either. Again, it doesn't have to be this either or business. You don't either have to hate Matt Cassel or think he's better than Tom Brady. The absurd polarizations on this board are enough to drive you away from it. Matt Cassel played a great game.

 

[Deus Irae]

I guess Belichick isn't ready to turn the franchise over to Cassel yet either. Again, it doesn't have to be this either or business. You don't either have to hate Matt Cassel or think he's better than Tom Brady. The absurd polarizations on this board are enough to drive you away from it. Matt Cassel played a great game.

Yes, he did, and he's THE BEST EVER!!




Until he has a multi pick game that the team loses. Then the Patriots should cut his lousy ass.

 

[upstater1]

We drove the ball on them every drive of them game, not just when we were behind. If it weren't for a few miscues in that first half, we wouldn't have been down in the first place. I do not fear the Jets pass defense in the least if we come against them in the playoffs.

The announcers were calling Mangini on going to a soft zone after the Jets got up big on us.

 

[BradyManny]

Yes, he did, and he's THE BEST EVER!!




Until he has a multi pick game that the team loses. Then the Patriots should cut his lousy ass.

LOL. What's crazy is that Tom Brady could come back next year and actually hear boo's from these bozos if he had one bad game. It's a "what have you done for me lately" kind of town.

 

[BradyManny]

The announcers were calling Mangini on going to a soft zone after the Jets got up big on us.

I'm saying that even before they got up big, we were driving on them with ease. Everyone says Cassel turned it around in the 2nd half - but he played well in the 1st half, too. There were just a couple miscues that prevented them from racking up more points.

 

[signbabybrady]

Disclaimer to the disclaimer.

the 1-15 Patriots in the early 90's let up a whopping zero 400 yard passers so don't talk to me about who the compition was during Cassel's 400 yard performances. 400 yard games in the NFL are rare regardless of who you are playing.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

They aren't great pass defenses, they're ranked 19th and 21st in passer rating allowed.

But still :

Jets defense allows 87.7 passer rating, Cassel had a 103.4.
Dolphins defense allows 89.9 passer rating, Cassel had a 114.0.

Pittsburgh allows a 71.1, we'll see what happens.

Great perspective.

Also, how many other QB's have put up 400 yards against the Jets or Fins this season. Must be happening every week, I guess....

 

[Kontradiction]

That's a phony stat.

The Jets are on a big roll. You will give up passing yards if you're playing from in front, especially with Mangini as coach because he plays prevent with 3 score leads.

The Patriots and the Titans were not running the ball in the second half against the Jets.

what does that tell you?

Heh. Most stats are phony. That's why I never understood why people used football stats to back up their arguments when stats have been proven wrong time and time again. Let's go back to last year. Last year, the stats said that Eli Manning was an interception prone quarterback. After week 16, the stats went out the window. Shall I remind everyone of what happened after that?

 

[TheRazor]

This thread is valid, yet so is this thought.

What happens if the 2008 Patriots win the SuperBowl?
Where does that leave Patriots upper brass?

I know I have been through all of this before,
I seriously thought Bledsoe stepping in for an
injured Tom Brady in the conference game was
fate... I still wasn't convinced till that last drive
in SB 36, and neither was Patriot Nation.

Lets see where this season takes us before any
snap judgements, on either quarterback.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

250 yards passing against Pittsburgh would be much more impressive to me than 400+ yards vs. Miami and the NYJ.