31 August Final 53*

[tatepatsfan]

Has Bussey played a down in the preseason?

Perhaps to the PS, but I don't see them cutting ties with him just yet.

 

[flyonthewall]

Here is my 52. #53 really just depends on where they feel they need more depth, so my options for #53 are at the bottom.

My 52/53 is based on the following predictions:

A) Pats try to pick up a better #2 QB option such as Feeley. If they can't, then Walter will remain in this spot.
B) Assuming they can get a better #2 QB, they only carry 2 QB's on the 53, and Hoyer on PS.
C) Pats try to ship Mike Wright to another team for a late round pick. I only see them carrying 7 DL.
D) I have Lewis on the 53 for now, but unless he really improves, he gets released mid-season to make room for someone like LeVoir or Tate coming off of PUP.

Offense (24)

QBs (2) - Brady, (Vet QB other than Walter)
RBs (5) - Maroney, Morris, Taylor, Faulk, BJGE
WRs (6) - Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Edelman, Aiken
TEs (3) - Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL (8) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Wendell, Vollmer, Ohrenberger

Defense (25)

DL (7) - Seymour, Wilfork, Brace, Warren, Burgess, Green, Pryor
OLB (4) - Thomas, Woods, TBC, Crable
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Lenon, Alexander
CB (5) - Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley,
S (5) - Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan, Slater

Specialists (3) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Ingram

Possible Player #53 (1) - Britt, O'Callahan, Yates, Connolly, Walter, Wright, Ventrone, or Smith. I suspect either an OT or Ventrone.

Thoughts?

 

[pats1]

Here is my 52. #53 really just depends on where they feel they need more depth, so my options for #53 are at the bottom.

My 52/53 is based on the following predictions:

A) Pats try to pick up a better #2 QB option such as Feeley. If they can't, then Walter will remain in this spot.
B) Assuming they can get a better #2 QB, they only carry 2 QB's on the 53, and Hoyer on PS.
C) Pats try to ship Mike Wright to another team for a late round pick. I only see them carrying 7 DL.
D) I have Lewis on the 53 for now, but unless he really improves, he gets released mid-season to make room for someone like LeVoir or Tate coming off of PUP.

Offense (24)

QBs (2) - Brady, (Vet QB other than Walter)
RBs (5) - Maroney, Morris, Taylor, Faulk, BJGE
WRs (6) - Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Edelman, Aiken
TEs (3) - Baker, Watson, Thomas
OL (8) - Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaczur, Wendell, Vollmer, Ohrenberger

Defense (25)

DL (7) - Seymour, Wilfork, Brace, Warren, Burgess, Green, Pryor
OLB (4) - Thomas, Woods, TBC, Crable
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Lenon, Alexander
CB (5) - Bodden, Wilhite, Springs, Butler, Wheatley,
S (5) - Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan, Slater

Specialists (3) - Gostkowski, Hanson, Ingram

Possible Player #53 (1) - Britt, O'Callahan, Yates, Connolly, Walter, Wright, Ventrone, or Smith. I suspect either an OT or Ventrone.

Thoughts?

Why would you trade Wright? It would cost the Patriots more against the cap this year ($1,190,000) to trade Wright than to keep him. That's just plain dumb.

And why would you put TBC and Burgess at two different positions on your projection when they've played the same position to this point (DE)?

 

[pats1]

Perhaps to the PS, but I don't see them cutting ties with him just yet.

Of course not, but he has PS written all over him.

 

[pats1]

Guys that you have making it that I don't see happening:
Richard
Britt
Aiken
O'Callaghan
Crable (sucks- I was really amped about the guy, but you just can't be injured for your entire rookie year and your second preseason and expect to make the team...)

Guys that you have getting cut that I see making it:
Slater
Wheatley
Alexander
Wendell
Ohrnberger

The one cut that I'm actually hoping for is Shawn Springs, just because it would mean that our other guys--Bodden, Butler, Wilhite--are progressing well enough to make him expendable. That would rock, and potentially open up a spot for Crable.

I also think that Jarvis Green is getting cut every year, but by now I understand that that's probably just not going to happen.

Aiken is the special teams captain. He's not getting cut.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Guys that you have making it that I don't see happening:
Richard
Britt
Aiken
O'Callaghan
Crable (sucks- I was really amped about the guy, but you just can't be injured for your entire rookie year and your second preseason and expect to make the team...)

Guys that you have getting cut that I see making it:
Slater
Wheatley
Alexander
Wendell
Ohrnberger

The one cut that I'm actually hoping for is Shawn Springs, just because it would mean that our other guys--Bodden, Butler, Wilhite--are progressing well enough to make him expendable. That would rock, and potentially open up a spot for Crable.

I also think that Jarvis Green is getting cut every year, but by now I understand that that's probably just not going to happen.

I can definitely see it playing out as you say, with one exception, which I'll get to in a minute. In other words, I left a couple of spaces open, so some of the bubble guys you mention could indeed be those players, no doubt. A few thoughts:

Regarding your list of cuts. I did a follow up post saying essentially, in the light of day, we would probably need to axe an OT, and include an interior lineman (translation one of the guards sticks). I also agreed on the defensive side that Richard probably hasn't done enough to stick.

Crable could very definitely be cut, as he always injured, and the team could punt on him. I kept him on my roster, as I still see the value of depth at that position.

Is there anybody on your list of cuts that would surprise me? Aiken. He's a ST stud. I think he stays.

Now guys that you see staying. Again, I left myself some wiggle room on keeping some folks, but I'll play along. I think any combination of the five you list could in fact be kept. Nobody can argue that all five are bubble guys, so any combination or all could also be cut.

Slater is a valuable ST guy, and could be kept. Wheatley was a fairly high draft pick, and they may not be willing to give up on him. I'm taking an educated guess that they haven't been wowed by him, and he gets the axe. Neither would surprise me. I've actually always been of of the rare few that like Alexander, and he too has alot of ST value. His ceiling made me finally bust a move and cut him. He is what he is, and will never improve IMHO. Wendell I see getting cut, but maybe you've seen more of him that you like. I have no problem with that. Ohrnberger is somebody who I get, that it will be hard to cut being that we traded our starting CB for draft picks to move up to take him. I'm biased here though in that I never understood that draft pick to begin with. The fact that you have the team keeping him is very plausible. I'm thinking practice squad, but we'll find out soon enough.

As for Shawn Springs. He's done zero to show he should stay, but will be a rather sizeable hit on the cap to cut, and so I'm saying they keep the veteran, and hope they were right about him. If he's cut, I will say "I get that".

In looking at the many posts, it's pretty clear to me that Pats fans know what they are talking about, and there isn't a whole lotta differences on who the bubble guys are. Just differences on the final make up.

Let's face it, there will be a move or two that will fall in the category of surprising us, and there could be a move or two of bringing somebody in that screws up our list anyway.

Many of the guys that we say are "cut" could be on the team for years to come. What, you say? Well, several "cuts" will be added to the practice squad in hopes that they become players.

 

[flyonthewall]

Why would you trade Wright? It would cost the Patriots more against the cap this year ($1,190,000) to trade Wright than to keep him. That's just plain dumb.

And why would you put TBC and Burgess at two different positions on your projection when they've played the same position to this point (DE)?

Fair enough point regarding Wright. I hadn't taken his cap figure into consideration, however I am still not sold on them keeping 8 DL. If they do keep all 8, then that answers my question as to where the 53 player is.

As for the Burgess and TBC, I don't what is wrong with where I have them. This is merely a projection of the 53 and not an attempt to predict where players will get there snaps. If it were, I would have listed Slater as a special teams specialist because I don't expect him to see many snaps at Safety. Furthermore both Burgess and TBC can be considered hybrid players in our system, although I do expect TBC to see some OLB action when in a 3-4, while Burgess will be predominantly a DE in a 4-3.

 

[flyonthewall]

If his injury is legit enough, I wouldn't mind seeing Morris start out on the PUP list. He is a tough runner (probably my favorite of the group), so it would be great to have him go into the second half of the season with a full tank of gas. The other 4 (including BJGE) would be more than enough to get the job done for the first half, and this would also open up a roster spot for someone else.

 

[WhoaDirty]

What happens at the end of six weeks when a player is on PUP? Do they go back on the active roster or waived? Reason I ask: Is there any chance Crable goes to the PUP to give him a chance to heal up, then the team figures out what to do with him then?

 

[pats1]

Fair enough point regarding Wright. I hadn't taken his cap figure into consideration, however I am still not sold on them keeping 8 DL. If they do keep all 8, then that answers my question as to where the 53 player is.

As for the Burgess and TBC, I don't what is wrong with where I have them. This is merely a projection of the 53 and not an attempt to predict where players will get there snaps. If it were, I would have listed Slater as a special teams specialist because I don't expect him to see many snaps at Safety. Furthermore both Burgess and TBC can be considered hybrid players in our system, although I do expect TBC to see some OLB action when in a 3-4, while Burgess will be predominantly a DE in a 4-3.

This is true, however it should effect your previous point, number of players at DL. In a 4-3, having 8 DL is not a big deal, but since your projection uses the 3-4, there's a strange dichotemy there, because you're including Burgess among the DLs as if it's a 4-3, but then saying 8 DL is too much, as if it's a 3-4.

 

[mgteich]

I usually list both Banta-Cain and Burgess as DE/O LB. We do have an extra DL this year. The change is because Belichick decided to carry a backup NT and perhaps play more 4-3. The total front seven is still 15 if you cut either Crable or Alexander and put the other in your sweepstakes for player 53.

Fair enough point regarding Wright. I hadn't taken his cap figure into consideration, however I am still not sold on them keeping 8 DL. If they do keep all 8, then that answers my question as to where the 53 player is.

As for the Burgess and TBC, I don't what is wrong with where I have them. This is merely a projection of the 53 and not an attempt to predict where players will get there snaps. If it were, I would have listed Slater as a special teams specialist because I don't expect him to see many snaps at Safety. Furthermore both Burgess and TBC can be considered hybrid players in our system, although I do expect TBC to see some OLB action when in a 3-4, while Burgess will be predominantly a DE in a 4-3.

 

[flyonthewall]

This is true, however it should effect your previous point, number of players at DL. In a 4-3, having 8 DL is not a big deal, but since your projection uses the 3-4, there's a strange dichotemy there, because you're including Burgess among the DLs as if it's a 4-3, but then saying 8 DL is too much, as if it's a 3-4.

I think that mgteich just stated what I was getting at more clearly by looking at the total number of front 7 on the 53. I see 14 players on the final 53 and maybe 15 if we keep another DL as the 53rd guy. I didn't have any set number rule like we should only keep x number of players at z position. My number is just a reflection of which guys I expect to make the 53.

I see Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Green, and Brace as 5 definite DL guys. I like both Smith and Pryor and think that one of them will definitely be on the 53 (DL guy #6), but I'm not sure if we keep both.

As mgteich so clearly classified them: Burgess and TBC will be our 2 OLB/DE's.

I will group the rest of the OLB's and the ILB's into one LB category to avoid the debate of who should be listed where based on which defense we run.

LB's (7): Mayo, Guyton, A.D., Woods, Lennon, Alexander, Crabel

That makes of total of 14 guys from our front 7 that I expect to definitely make the 53. As I stated before, maybe we keep one more D-linemen to make 15, but I think that spot is up in the air.

As for the 4-3 vs 3-4, I'm not quite sure what you are grasping at. I never claimed my projection was based on a prediction of either. I actually expect that we will run quite a bit of both. I only stated that I expect to see TBC getting some reps standing up at OLB when we are in a 3-4, whereas I expect Burgess to get most of his reps as a DE when we are in a 4-3. Don't get me wrong, I think that TBC will get more DE reps (4-3) than OLB reps (3-4), but I do expect him to get some OLB reps.

 

[Patspsycho]

one way or another I don't envy being in BB's shoes right now. some pretty difficult decisions to make between now and Saturday!

 

[pats1]

I see Warren, Wilfork, Seymour, Green, and Brace as 5 definite DL guys. I like both Smith and Pryor and think that one of them will definitely be on the 53 (DL guy #6), but I'm not sure if we keep both.

um, Smith...?

 

[BradyFTW!]

I can definitely see it playing out as you say, with one exception, which I'll get to in a minute. In other words, I left a couple of spaces open, so some of the bubble guys you mention could indeed be those players, no doubt. A few thoughts:

Regarding your list of cuts. I did a follow up post saying essentially, in the light of day, we would probably need to axe an OT, and include an interior lineman (translation one of the guards sticks). I also agreed on the defensive side that Richard probably hasn't done enough to stick.

Crable could very definitely be cut, as he always injured, and the team could punt on him. I kept him on my roster, as I still see the value of depth at that position.

Is there anybody on your list of cuts that would surprise me? Aiken. He's a ST stud. I think he stays.

Now guys that you see staying. Again, I left myself some wiggle room on keeping some folks, but I'll play along. I think any combination of the five you list could in fact be kept. Nobody can argue that all five are bubble guys, so any combination or all could also be cut.

Slater is a valuable ST guy, and could be kept. Wheatley was a fairly high draft pick, and they may not be willing to give up on him. I'm taking an educated guess that they haven't been wowed by him, and he gets the axe. Neither would surprise me. I've actually always been of of the rare few that like Alexander, and he too has alot of ST value. His ceiling made me finally bust a move and cut him. He is what he is, and will never improve IMHO. Wendell I see getting cut, but maybe you've seen more of him that you like. I have no problem with that. Ohrnberger is somebody who I get, that it will be hard to cut being that we traded our starting CB for draft picks to move up to take him. I'm biased here though in that I never understood that draft pick to begin with. The fact that you have the team keeping him is very plausible. I'm thinking practice squad, but we'll find out soon enough.

As for Shawn Springs. He's done zero to show he should stay, but will be a rather sizeable hit on the cap to cut, and so I'm saying they keep the veteran, and hope they were right about him. If he's cut, I will say "I get that".

In looking at the many posts, it's pretty clear to me that Pats fans know what they are talking about, and there isn't a whole lotta differences on who the bubble guys are. Just differences on the final make up.

Let's face it, there will be a move or two that will fall in the category of surprising us, and there could be a move or two of bringing somebody in that screws up our list anyway.

Many of the guys that we say are "cut" could be on the team for years to come. What, you say? Well, several "cuts" will be added to the practice squad in hopes that they become players.

Definitely, that all makes sense to me. I agree that Springs would be a surprise move, and might not make a ton of sense cap-wise, but that's a sunk cost, and *if* it's felt that his roster space would better benefit the team by allocating it somewhere else, I'd think that the move would be made. That's an awfully big if, though, so I'm by no means saying that I expect it. Just saying that, of all of the potential surprise cuts, that's one that wouldn't totally shock me.

As far as Aiken goes, I've been pretty consistently told that I undervalue him- I still don't see it, but in light of what seems to be a consensus against my opinion, I'll defer to you guys. It's all part of the "If a bunch of informed, intelligent people all disagree with you, you're usually wrong" premise.

I definitely agree with you re: Alexander. At this point, I don't even really consider him a linebacker, just a ST ace, so switching him out for Aiken wouldn't be much of a problem. Leaves us a little thin across the board at LB, but if worst comes to worst Seau and McGinest are on speed dial.

 

[flyonthewall]

um, Smith...?

I meant Wright, not Smith.

 

[BelichickFan]

As for Shawn Springs. He's done zero to show he should stay, but will be a rather sizeable hit on the cap to cut, and so I'm saying they keep the veteran, and hope they were right about him. If he's cut, I will say "I get that".

I wouldn't get it. It would leave Wheatley and the 4th CB and no-one as the 5th. I like Bodden, Wilhite and Butler but we aren't going in with just those three and Wheatley.

 

[Bostonian1962]

I wouldn't get it. It would leave Wheatley and the 4th CB and no-one as the 5th. I like Bodden, Wilhite and Butler but we aren't going in with just those three and Wheatley.

Well said. I'm not stubborn. Five CBs may be the way to go.

Let's see also, what happens around the league that could impact us. Heck, just tonight Damon Huard was cut, so if we need a vet. QB there's one to consider.

I love this time of year.