2017-18 LB Group evolution

[maineman209]

The Pats went into 2017 Camp with these LB:

Hightower
Van Noy
McClellin
Harris
Bates
Roberts
Langi
Freeny
Vereen
Ellis

Maybe could include Rivers here, since they Pats seemed to be trying him as an OLB, on occasion at least. But that's moot for this part, since he didn't make it out of Camp healthy.

I never thought this was a "strong" group, and I wasn't sure if they'd keep five or six. Beyond Hightower, this is how I evaluated them:

Likely Keepers
Van Noy
... quick study in 2016 with only a half season; solid player going into his first full season with the Pats
McClellin
... decent situational/rotational piece on the edge (status unclear with undisclosed injury)

Competing
Harris - veteran backup, 2-down rotational piece
Bates - very athletic, but raw 2016 P-squad guy with some ST chops
Roberts - 2nd-year player, but still raw; backup quality, virtually no ST contributions
Langi - high-investment UDFA, potential ST development prospect, probably wouldn't clear waivers

I thought they'd keep two of the above for five total - OR, if McClellin would be out for awhile, Harris plus two others. I thought they might keep Bates over Roberts, if McClellin could play. Langi was always kind of a wild card.

Likely Cuts
Freeny - veteran STer/emergency reserve
Vereen & Ellis - Camp fodder

And, just before cutdowns, on August 29th, they added Marquis Flowers via trade. I thought this was mostly a special teams move (like the Bademosi acquisition a couple days later during cutdowns), since both Ebner (shoulder) and Slater (hamstring) appeared unlikely to play in week-1. Still, trading for Flowers rather than merely keeping Bates or Freeny made it intriguing.

Anyway, McClellin technically ended up on the roster after final cutdowns, but that was only a temporary move to make him eligible for the IR-DtR option (same with Mitchell and Valentine). So, they kept six "LB":

Hightower
Van Noy
Harris
Roberts
Langi
Flowers

Flowers, of course, was promoted to a much more active role on defense at OLB after Hightower was sent to IR during the BYE Week (week-9).

Then, the Pats added LB/special teamer, and familiar face Trevor Reilly to the PS on October 12th (week-6), promoting him 12 days later (week-8) to replace Langi, who had been injured in a car wreck on October 14th. Reilly filled in with 57 D-snaps and 94 ST snaps (way more than Langi himself had contributed) over the course of six games active before being replaced by Harrison in week-17.

DE Eric Lee replaced DE Marsh just before Thanksgiving (week-12), and contributed 281 D-snaps (only 11 on ST, however) through the end of the regular season, about half of those in an OLB-ish role.

It should be noted that, although Reilly was re-signed to the PS right after week-17, he has apparently declined to sign a futures contract with the Pats (reportedly seeking more playing time on defense elsewhere).

=============

So, here's where the 2018 LB group stands at the moment:

Hightower (coming off IR - pectoral)
Van Noy
Harris (likely early cap cut)
McClellin (coming off IR - concussions ... possibly retires)
Roberts
Langi (coming off NFI)

Flowers - UFA
Harrison - UFA

Plus edge defenders Lee and Rivers (coming off IR - ACL) who might provide some OLB snaps in 2018.

I'm guessing that both Harris and McClellin are released before March 14th. I'm hoping that Flowers can be re-signed, but I'm guessing that the Pats will be competing with Matt Patricia for his future services. Assuming that Flowers IS re-signed, the LB group would look like this going into free agency:

Hightower
Van Noy*
Roberts*
Langi
Flowers
(* the only two LBs who are currently under contract AND healthy)

I think it's likely that this list increases to at least 10-12 guys by post-draft Rookie Camp in May. I think it's likely that Harrison is re-signed (cheaply) around that time, so I'd consider him to be one of that 10-12.

Depending on how the coaches see their possible future roles with the team, Lee and/or Rivers may or may not be considered as part of that 10-12 ... or, instead, part of whatever the off-season head count may be at DE.

In any case, it seems to me that there's likely to be 3-5 spots open for LB candidates on the 90-man roster heading into Free agency and the draft.

My guess is that there may be one (affordable) signing of a relatively accomplished (and not ancient) UFA (in addition to Harrison). Failing in that, the Pats could make another draft-day trade for one. Of course, over the next three weeks, we could see another dozen or two LBs with NFL experience (not all of them "elderly") hit the market as cap cuts. There might be something there, but most will likely be Freeny/Reilly types.

[Wild-*** possibility: If the Eagles manage to re-sign Bradham somehow (they need to do a crap-tonne of cap maneuvering), the Pats trade their 4th-round comp pick (#136) for Jordan Hicks (he's coming off a torn Achilles) and the Eagles 5th-rounder (#147). Hicks is under contract for 2018 at $1.9M, and is still very young.]

I'd also guess that the Pats spend one of their first four picks on an LB (currently #31, #43, #63, #95), and likely backfill the remaining open LB spots with UDFA.

Above and beyond how fans may evaluate various LBs who are currently in-house or elsewhere, it seems virtually certain that the process of building the Pats 2018 LB group will be the most interesting and entertaining part of this off-season, especially given current cap-space constraints.

Unless, of course, Gronk retires.

 

[jah]

I think Freeny was only back for a week.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

I actually like the more "project" pieces in terms of upside here. Lee and Flowers I think can be coached up more.

I am also a McClellin guy, so I really hope he's not cooked, but I agree in that he probably is.

I think that makes a Flowers re-sign pretty important. As with Van Noy's improvement after a full camp here ,I think these guys can make a leap.

Rivers comes off really thin to me and small, almost more like a Grissomesque subrusher ceiling. If he and Lee can ADD weight, we may see them be more like 3 down guys.

Lee's technique setting the edge looks solid, if a bit inconsistent, but maybe ask Nink to work with him on the staff and have him add a bit of muscle/weight somehow.

He needs 7-10 lbs and Rivers needs 10-15.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Team needs talent at that position. You can't count on Hightower playing all 16 games. They need a playmaker at that spot.

 

[maineman209]

I think Freeny was only back for a week.

During the season, yes.

He was part of the 2017 off-season/Camp mix, though, which is the period I'm talking about.

 

[Steve102]

The Pats went into 2017 Camp with these LB:

Hightower
Van Noy
McClellin
Harris
Bates
Roberts
Langi
Freeny
Vereen
Ellis

Maybe could include Rivers here, since they Pats seemed to be trying him as an OLB, on occasion at least. But that's moot for this part, since he didn't make it out of Camp healthy.

I never thought this was a "strong" group, and I wasn't sure if they'd keep five or six. Beyond Hightower, this is how I evaluated them:

Likely Keepers
Van Noy
... quick study in 2016 with only a half season; solid player going into his first full season with the Pats
McClellin
... decent situational/rotational piece on the edge (status unclear with undisclosed injury)

Competing
Harris - veteran backup, 2-down rotational piece
Bates - very athletic, but raw 2016 P-squad guy with some ST chops
Roberts - 2nd-year player, but still raw; backup quality, virtually no ST contributions
Langi - high-investment UDFA, potential ST development prospect, probably wouldn't clear waivers

I thought they'd keep two of the above for five total - OR, if McClellin would be out for awhile, Harris plus two others. I thought they might keep Bates over Roberts, if McClellin could play. Langi was always kind of a wild card.

Likely Cuts
Freeny - veteran STer/emergency reserve
Vereen & Ellis - Camp fodder

And, just before cutdowns, on August 29th, they added Marquis Flowers via trade. I thought this was mostly a special teams move (like the Bademosi acquisition a couple days later during cutdowns), since both Ebner (shoulder) and Slater (hamstring) appeared unlikely to play in week-1. Still, trading for Flowers rather than merely keeping Bates or Freeny made it intriguing.

Anyway, McClellin technically ended up on the roster after final cutdowns, but that was only a temporary move to make him eligible for the IR-DtR option (same with Mitchell and Valentine). So, they kept six "LB":

Hightower
Van Noy
Harris
Roberts
Langi
Flowers

Flowers, of course, was promoted to a much more active role on defense at OLB after Hightower was sent to IR during the BYE Week (week-9).

Then, the Pats added LB/special teamer, and familiar face Trevor Reilly to the PS on October 12th (week-6), promoting him 12 days later (week-8) to replace Langi, who had been injured in a car wreck on October 14th. Reilly filled in with 57 D-snaps and 94 ST snaps (way more than Langi himself had contributed) over the course of six games active before being replaced by Harrison in week-17.

DE Eric Lee replaced DE Marsh just before Thanksgiving (week-12), and contributed 281 D-snaps (only 11 on ST, however) through the end of the regular season, about half of those in an OLB-ish role.

It should be noted that, although Reilly was re-signed to the PS right after week-17, he has apparently declined to sign a futures contract with the Pats (reportedly seeking more playing time on defense elsewhere).

=============

So, here's where the 2018 LB group stands at the moment:

Hightower (coming off IR - pectoral)
Van Noy
Harris (likely early cap cut)
McClellin (coming off IR - concussions ... possibly retires)
Roberts
Langi (coming off NFI)

Flowers - UFA
Harrison - UFA

Plus edge defenders Lee and Rivers (coming off IR - ACL) who might provide some OLB snaps in 2018.

I'm guessing that both Harris and McClellin are released before March 14th. I'm hoping that Flowers can be re-signed, but I'm guessing that the Pats will be competing with Matt Patricia for his future services. Assuming that Flowers IS re-signed, the LB group would look like this going into free agency:

Hightower
Van Noy*
Roberts*
Langi
Flowers
(* the only two LBs who are currently under contract AND healthy)

I think it's likely that this list increases to at least 10-12 guys by post-draft Rookie Camp in May. I think it's likely that Harrison is re-signed (cheaply) around that time, so I'd consider him to be one of that 10-12.

Depending on how the coaches see their possible future roles with the team, Lee and/or Rivers may or may not be considered as part of that 10-12 ... or, instead, part of whatever the off-season head count may be at DE.

In any case, it seems to me that there's likely to be 3-5 spots open for LB candidates on the 90-man roster heading into Free agency and the draft.

My guess is that there may be one (affordable) signing of a relatively accomplished (and not ancient) UFA (in addition to Harrison). Failing in that, the Pats could make another draft-day trade for one. Of course, over the next three weeks, we could see another dozen or two LBs with NFL experience (not all of them "elderly") hit the market as cap cuts. There might be something there, but most will likely be Freeny/Reilly types.

[Wild-*** possibility: If the Eagles manage to re-sign Bradham somehow (they need to do a crap-tonne of cap maneuvering), the Pats trade their 4th-round comp pick (#136) for Jordan Hicks (he's coming off a torn Achilles) and the Eagles 5th-rounder (#147). Hicks is under contract for 2018 at $1.9M, and is still very young.]

I'd also guess that the Pats spend one of their first four picks on an LB (currently #31, #43, #63, #95), and likely backfill the remaining open LB spots with UDFA.

Above and beyond how fans may evaluate various LBs who are currently in-house or elsewhere, it seems virtually certain that the process of building the Pats 2018 LB group will be the most interesting and entertaining part of this off-season, especially given current cap-space constraints.

Unless, of course, Gronk retires.

good analysis. I think you're right on the money with your draft thoughts. I wouldn't mind if they made a run at Avery Williamson, in addition to Bradham.

 

[maineman209]

Let's focus this a little more:

One UFA LB to be acquired (or one traded for) _______?
.... must be able to fit the Pats' cap space (after paying Solder +/- $11M).
One LB draftee in the first four picks __________?

Who ya got for these two slots?

 

[Steve102]

Let's focus this a little more:

One UFA LB to be acquired (or one traded for) _______?
.... must be able to fit the Pats' cap space (after paying Solder +/- $11M).
One LB draftee in the first four picks __________?

Who ya got for these two slots?

What is our cap #? What kind of budget do I have to work with ?

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Let's focus this a little more:

One UFA LB to be acquired (or one traded for) _______?
.... must be able to fit the Pats' cap space (after paying Solder +/- $11M).
One LB draftee in the first four picks __________?

Who ya got for these two slots?

Hope we can free up the cap space. Going after bradham would be nice and then draft another LB. I don't know what they will do at corner with butler gone. Idk who will resign but i would hate to lose solder. He played very well.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Team needs talent at that position. You can't count on Hightower playing all 16 games. They need a playmaker at that spot.

Van Noy is the guy. You don't seem to understand the value of the Hightower value. Part of he reason Van Noy arrived mid season last year and looked so comfortable so fast was because of what Hightower does.

When Bruschi was not there in 2005? What happened.

In 2013 when Mayo went down, what happened?

You are underrating both Van Noy and Hightower, in a nutshell. Both a guy like Van Noy and Flowers are "playmakers" or at least have shown to be BETTER with Hightower there.

What's BB supposed to do, tell Hightower to give the money back due to his injury?

Hightower is arguably the best MLB in the AFC.

Hightower filled in admirably for Mayo in 2013 and Van Noy for Hightower this year.

I do think you dip into the draft somewhat early for another LB, though, yes. Roberts needs pushing and maybe to be cut.

But, the Hightower impact is enormous. He's essentially the captain of the D. When he went down, I immediately moved by SB repeat expectation back a tick.

That's how vital he is. Saying "he gets hurt" pay someone else in FA, is not the answer.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Hope we can free up the cap space. Going after bradham would be nice and then draft another LB. I don't know what they will do at corner with butler gone. Idk who will resign but i would hate to lose solder. He played very well.

What is with the Bradham obsession?

 

[Steve102]

Let's focus this a little more:

One UFA LB to be acquired (or one traded for) _______?
.... must be able to fit the Pats' cap space (after paying Solder +/- $11M).
One LB draftee in the first four picks __________?

Who ya got for these two slots?

I'll draft Tre Williams out of Auburn and Garret Dooley out of Wisconsin. My knowledge is limited, so if any of you are Mel Kiper I'm eff'd.

Just for the sake of playing the game today, I'll stay with Williamson as a FA signing, but I'm no capologist. No idea what he will be, but it'll be less than Bradham.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

What is with the Bradham obsession?

Bradham' s a better player than van noy.

 

[jah]

During the season, yes.

He was part of the 2017 off-season/Camp mix, though, which is the period I'm talking about.

I completely forgot we had him all the way until September. For some reason I thought he was one of the early cuts in the spring they do to let guys catch on elsewhere.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

Bradham' s a better player than van noy.

Don't agree.

Van Noy would be, say, the Steelers best LB right now.
And, I say that as Ryan Shazier as literally talking about being the best LB ever and going to the HOF. I am not kidding. He said this yeasterday. And, if Van Noy played for Pitt, he'd still be better than the workout king, Shazier.

Bradham is older, more on the backside of his career, and now fat and content with a ring on his finger. He made no plays in the SB either.

No thanks.

BB rarely signs FA LBs, but Flowers is probably a better player with better upside than Bradham. And, he'll be cheaper with coachable upside.

Sometimes the best FAs are the ones right in front of your face.

 

[jimnance]

The Pats went into 2017 Camp with these LB:

Hightower
Van Noy
McClellin
Harris
Bates
Roberts
Langi
Freeny
Vereen
Ellis

Maybe could include Rivers here, since they Pats seemed to be trying him as an OLB, on occasion at least. But that's moot for this part, since he didn't make it out of Camp healthy.

I never thought this was a "strong" group, and I wasn't sure if they'd keep five or six. Beyond Hightower, this is how I evaluated them:

Likely Keepers
Van Noy
... quick study in 2016 with only a half season; solid player going into his first full season with the Pats
McClellin
... decent situational/rotational piece on the edge (status unclear with undisclosed injury)

Competing
Harris - veteran backup, 2-down rotational piece
Bates - very athletic, but raw 2016 P-squad guy with some ST chops
Roberts - 2nd-year player, but still raw; backup quality, virtually no ST contributions
Langi - high-investment UDFA, potential ST development prospect, probably wouldn't clear waivers

I thought they'd keep two of the above for five total - OR, if McClellin would be out for awhile, Harris plus two others. I thought they might keep Bates over Roberts, if McClellin could play. Langi was always kind of a wild card.

Likely Cuts
Freeny - veteran STer/emergency reserve
Vereen & Ellis - Camp fodder

And, just before cutdowns, on August 29th, they added Marquis Flowers via trade. I thought this was mostly a special teams move (like the Bademosi acquisition a couple days later during cutdowns), since both Ebner (shoulder) and Slater (hamstring) appeared unlikely to play in week-1. Still, trading for Flowers rather than merely keeping Bates or Freeny made it intriguing.

Anyway, McClellin technically ended up on the roster after final cutdowns, but that was only a temporary move to make him eligible for the IR-DtR option (same with Mitchell and Valentine). So, they kept six "LB":

Hightower
Van Noy
Harris
Roberts
Langi
Flowers

Flowers, of course, was promoted to a much more active role on defense at OLB after Hightower was sent to IR during the BYE Week (week-9).

Then, the Pats added LB/special teamer, and familiar face Trevor Reilly to the PS on October 12th (week-6), promoting him 12 days later (week-8) to replace Langi, who had been injured in a car wreck on October 14th. Reilly filled in with 57 D-snaps and 94 ST snaps (way more than Langi himself had contributed) over the course of six games active before being replaced by Harrison in week-17.

DE Eric Lee replaced DE Marsh just before Thanksgiving (week-12), and contributed 281 D-snaps (only 11 on ST, however) through the end of the regular season, about half of those in an OLB-ish role.

It should be noted that, although Reilly was re-signed to the PS right after week-17, he has apparently declined to sign a futures contract with the Pats (reportedly seeking more playing time on defense elsewhere).

=============

So, here's where the 2018 LB group stands at the moment:

Hightower (coming off IR - pectoral)
Van Noy
Harris (likely early cap cut)
McClellin (coming off IR - concussions ... possibly retires)
Roberts
Langi (coming off NFI)

Flowers - UFA
Harrison - UFA

Plus edge defenders Lee and Rivers (coming off IR - ACL) who might provide some OLB snaps in 2018.

I'm guessing that both Harris and McClellin are released before March 14th. I'm hoping that Flowers can be re-signed, but I'm guessing that the Pats will be competing with Matt Patricia for his future services. Assuming that Flowers IS re-signed, the LB group would look like this going into free agency:

Hightower
Van Noy*
Roberts*
Langi
Flowers
(* the only two LBs who are currently under contract AND healthy)

I think it's likely that this list increases to at least 10-12 guys by post-draft Rookie Camp in May. I think it's likely that Harrison is re-signed (cheaply) around that time, so I'd consider him to be one of that 10-12.

Depending on how the coaches see their possible future roles with the team, Lee and/or Rivers may or may not be considered as part of that 10-12 ... or, instead, part of whatever the off-season head count may be at DE.

In any case, it seems to me that there's likely to be 3-5 spots open for LB candidates on the 90-man roster heading into Free agency and the draft.

My guess is that there may be one (affordable) signing of a relatively accomplished (and not ancient) UFA (in addition to Harrison). Failing in that, the Pats could make another draft-day trade for one. Of course, over the next three weeks, we could see another dozen or two LBs with NFL experience (not all of them "elderly") hit the market as cap cuts. There might be something there, but most will likely be Freeny/Reilly types.

[Wild-*** possibility: If the Eagles manage to re-sign Bradham somehow (they need to do a crap-tonne of cap maneuvering), the Pats trade their 4th-round comp pick (#136) for Jordan Hicks (he's coming off a torn Achilles) and the Eagles 5th-rounder (#147). Hicks is under contract for 2018 at $1.9M, and is still very young.]

I'd also guess that the Pats spend one of their first four picks on an LB (currently #31, #43, #63, #95), and likely backfill the remaining open LB spots with UDFA.

Above and beyond how fans may evaluate various LBs who are currently in-house or elsewhere, it seems virtually certain that the process of building the Pats 2018 LB group will be the most interesting and entertaining part of this off-season, especially given current cap-space constraints.

Unless, of course, Gronk retires.

Maineman-nice post compiling all that info- BUT I really could've done without your last sentence.
I think by far the #1 biggest need on D is an ilb- with speed, who can cover,tackle and stop the run. That really alleviates 2 holes at once since it allows BB/Flores to be creative with High ala more passrushing opps.
I don't follow college much so don't know what's available in the draft.

 

[VectorPrime]

KVN is great if he’s your 3rd LB. But having him be our best one available was a disaster. Hightower NEEDS to stay healthy and they NEED someone good to pair with him.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

KVN is great if he’s your 3rd LB. But having him be our best one available was a disaster. Hightower NEEDS to stay healthy and they NEED someone good to pair with him.

A disaster? I think the idea that Roberts was physically in Hightower's part of the field, is what you are referring to.

When your D is allowing an average of 11.87 points per game before even MORE injuries hit, I'd say "disaster" is wildly inaccurate of a word choice.

Roberts has no rage. Hightower lacks range, too, but what he has is the IQ and experience.

Van Noy is very good, underrated and will be better with Hightower there.

1. Hightower
2. Van Noy
3. Harrison (if he resigns)
4. Flowers (if he resigns)

I think this is a good group, especially in a base 3-4 set as an example.

Flower's speed can help Hightower at MLB.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

we need a LB with speeed, one that can go sideline to sideline.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

we need a LB with speeed, one that can go sideline to sideline.

Dude, Flowers is a free agent.

He was acquired, filled in and played well. He was the fastest LB at the Combine and can blaze. This means he's one of the fastest LBs in the NFL right now.

Just because ESPN does not run around telling everyone how good Marquis Flowers is, doesn't mean he isn't any good.

If McClellin is done, he is our best bet in FA. If he wants more cracks at a SB, he will resign here.

BB can go draft another fast guy early in the draft.

Flowers's coverage on Clement forced Clement to re-adjust how he wanted to catch it, for an incomplete pass that was incorrectly called by a cheating commissioner.