2014 Draft Needs

[ATippett56]

I think you're missing a rather key part of my point, which was the cost of upgrading. BB can take a Center in the draft but to do that he needs to sacrifice a pick that can be used elsewhere.

What is the relative gain to upgrade at Center as opposed to what it would cost to put that money elsewhere? That's going to depend on the value (performance/cost) of your current player as compared to the proposed upgrade.

And yet again, it's not as though being athletic and skilled necessitates that you cannot make the appropriate calls, it's possible to have both.

Look at the BIG picture, Wendell has sucked this year.

 

[Ivan]

When I say cut I mean free up his cap space by reducing his salary quite a bit to vet min plus incentives. Moving it to incentives which be nltbe. The effect cap wise would be the same as a cut.

If Wilfork isn't back at 100% or thereabouts he'll be at vet min or close to it or be cut outrightt. He cut milloy and even bernie kosar. He's not paying 8m for Wilfork's "locker room presence" as someone else insisted.

We'll see. Hope he comes back but a 33 year old guy who weighs 350 plus pounds with a ruptured achilles. Not a sure thing.

1) As Belize said cut and restructure mean completely different things.

2) "The effect cap wise would be the same as a cut." is equally absurd as statements go. A cut would accelerate his cap hit and would cost them money, a restructure would have no dead money hit and would free up money, they are essentially polar opposites.

 

[kennyb]

1) As Belize said cut and restructure mean completely different things.

2) "The effect cap wise would be the same as a cut." is equally absurd as statements go. A cut would accelerate his cap hit and would cost them money, a restructure would have no dead money hit and would free up money, they are essentially polar opposites.

He's in the last year of his contract next year so there are no cap hits to accelerate.l. So you are wrong.

I didn't say he'd be "restructured" if by that you mean have his salary guaranteed and contract extended. I maintain that's exactly what the Pats would not do. I didn't say that is the same as a cut cap wise. Reading comprehension. I said cutting his salary to vet min and giving nltbe incentives is about the same as a cut cap wise. And it is as there's only one year left of bonus amortization to hit.

It is of course my opinion that they will not simply guarantee and extend. They might if they're convinced he's 100% but I think that's unlikely.

So to recap you put words into my mouth "cut is the same as restructure cap wise". Never said that. "Cutting accelerates the unamortized". Yes, but there's only one year left. So cut or not that hit is the same. Extending only spreads out the salary guarateed.

Unamortized is something like 3.6m and New salary is about 8m. That unamortized hit is 3.6m if he's cut extended with guarantee or reduced. There is no acceleration as it's the last year einstein.

 

[Off The Grid]

 

[kennyb]

I think I need to explain this one more time as you probably didn't get it.

His unamortized cap hit is 3.6m. Next year is the last year of his contract.

If he's cut the cap hit is 3.6m.

If he's extended 3 years and guarateed the cap hit would be 3.6m +8m/4 or 5.6m. Or an increase of only 2m! Hooray! That's assuming all 8m is salary. Some small amount actually workout payments but for simplicity I'll assume it's all salary.

If reduced to 1m plus nltbe the cap hit would be 4.6m. So the difference between the first, a cut, and the last is 1m. That's what I said the pats might do and what I said would be similar cap wise. The difference is 1m. 1m is "similar". You said these two options are "polar opposites." Wrong.

The problem with the second (guarateed and extend) is that if he is to cut the following year (if his surgery is not effective for example) that would result in a further 6m cap hit. That's why simply extending and guaranteeing is risky and stupid. You risk dead money in the following year if you have to cut. I maintain this is unlikely UNLESS they're sure he's 100%.

I hope you can understand this. Please study it carefully before responding.

 

[kennyb]

The idea that they'd cut a hero like kosar is hysterical and to be honest offensive. Wish you and your idiocy were around then.

Yes there's no way they pay a 33 year old guy coming off a frequently career ending injury less than 8m. No way. It's quite offensive! Why they'd pay him that much just for his presence in the locker room.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

I think I need to explain this one more time as you probably didn't get it.

His unamortized cap hit is 3.6m. Next year is the last year of his contract.

If he's cut the cap hit is 3.6m.

If he's extended 3 years and guarateed the cap hit would be 3.6m +8m/4 or 5.6m. Or an increase of only 2m! Hooray! That's assuming all 8m is salary. Some small amount actually workout payments but for simplicity I'll assume it's all salary.

If reduced to 1m plus nltbe the cap hit would be 4.6m. So the difference between the first, a cut, and the last is 1m. That's what I said the pats might do and what I said would be similar cap wise. The difference is 1m. 1m is "similar". You said these two options are "polar opposites." Wrong.

The problem with the second (guarateed and extend) is that if he is to cut the following year (if his surgery is not effective for example) that would result in a further 6m cap hit. That's why simply extending and guaranteeing is risky and stupid. You risk dead money in the following year if you have to cut. I maintain this is unlikely UNLESS they're sure he's 100%.

I hope you can understand this. Please study it carefully before responding.

Let's put some facts here.

Per Miguel's website, Wilfork's contract calls for $7.5M in base salary and $0.5M in incentives during 2014. That's all new money. He has an existing $3.6M cap charge due to a bonus previously received.

Wilfork is a team captain. He also has been traveling and been on the sidelines for every road game this year. When has Belichick ever allowed that in tha past? Belichick wouldn't do that if he were simply planning on "cutting" him next year. He does this for the guys he thinks have earned it (except in Brady's, whose presence he understandably thought could cause a media distraction).

A potential simple offer is this -- convert the $8M new 2014 money to a $7.25M signing bonus and a $750K base salary. Add 2 years to the contract - with 2015 and 2016 each having non-guaranteed base salaries of $2.5M but with incentives and escalators that could have the salary reach as high as $6.5M (his 2013 base salary FWIW). This clears about $4.83M in cap space for 2014.

Belichick will attempt to let Wilfork work his way back. There is no way he would cut him in 2014 unless his foot fell off. So let's assume worst case and he wasn't effective in 2014 and is potentially still injured. Well, there's now $4.83M in cap charges they would be stuck with for cutting him in 2015. If they designate him a June 1 cut, it could be a two-year charge of $2.41M per year.

Frankly, that's peanuts for the Pats. They've done more for lesser players - see Chad Ochocinco. While I understand your argument saying this isn't peanuts and just "extending the inevitable", I would say that I disagree that Belichick is "all business". He isn't heartless. He let Bruschi, Brown, and Faulk dictate when and how their careers would end even though it was clear that they were done. I think he views Wilfork similarly - and that there's enough of a chance that the worst case scenario won't unfold that he'd think this is worth it. YMMV, clearly.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The idea that they'd cut a hero like kosar is hysterical and to be honest offensive. Wish you and your idiocy were around then.

Yes there's no way they pay a 33 year old guy coming off a frequently career ending injury less than 8m. No way. It's quite offensive! Why they'd pay him that much just for his presence in the locker room.

Kosar wasn't a hero to Belichick. He was a fan favorite, not coach favorite. Big difference. Kosar at that point was more equivalent to (*gulp*) cutting Tim Tebow - which he did. He's cut/traded other fan favorites before that weren't his favorites -- players that didn't do as much to justify the benefit of the doubt. Lawyer Milloy, Drew Bledsoe, Deion Branch, Richard Seymour.

 

[BelizePats]

Have Happy New Year KennyB.

 

[kennyb]

Let's put some facts here.

Per Miguel's website, Wilfork's contract calls for $7.5M in base salary and $0.5M in incentives during 2014. That's all new money. He has an existing $3.6M cap charge due to a bonus previously received.

Wilfork is a team captain. He also has been traveling and been on the sidelines for every road game this year. When has Belichick ever allowed that in tha past? Belichick wouldn't do that if he were simply planning on "cutting" him next year. He does this for the guys he thinks have earned it (except in Brady's, whose presence he understandably thought could cause a media distraction).

A potential simple offer is this -- convert the $8M new 2014 money to a $7.25M signing bonus and a $750K base salary. Add 2 years to the contract - with 2015 and 2016 each having non-guaranteed base salaries of $2.5M but with incentives and escalators that could have the salary reach as high as $6.5M (his 2013 base salary FWIW). This clears about $4.83M in cap space for 2014.

Belichick will attempt to let Wilfork work his way back. There is no way he would cut him in 2014 unless his foot fell off. So let's assume worst case and he wasn't effective in 2014 and is potentially still injured. Well, there's now $4.83M in cap charges they would be stuck with for cutting him in 2015. If they designate him a June 1 cut, it could be a two-year charge of $2.41M per year.

Frankly, that's peanuts for the Pats. They've done more for lesser players - see Chad Ochocinco. While I understand your argument saying this isn't peanuts and just "extending the inevitable", I would say that I disagree that Belichick is "all business". He isn't heartless. He let Bruschi, Brown, and Faulk dictate when and how their careers would end even though it was clear that they were done. I think he views Wilfork similarly - and that there's enough of a chance that the worst case scenario won't unfold that he'd think this is worth it. YMMV, clearly.

Well you may be right. I was positing draft needs and made an assumption he Either wouldn't be there or he'd have a much reduced salary.

Well i guess it all depends on how he recovers. Not sure they'd be willing to pay 8m if they weren't sure hed be back eventually even if they could spread it out over 3 years.

 

[Off The Grid]

The idea that they'd cut a hero like kosar is hysterical and to be honest offensive.

Wish you and your idiocy were around then.

Yes there's no way they pay a 33 year old guy coming off a frequently career ending injury less than 8m.

No way.

It's quite offensive!

Why they'd pay him that much just for his presence in the locker room.

 

[Off The Grid]

Also, assuming they cut Wilfork...

 

[BradyToAmendola]

I don't really share everyone else's concerns over Center. I'd be okay with bringing back Wendell, he's been good enough IMO.

I feel like we're most likely to use our 1st rounder on the following positions:

1. Nose Tackle/D-Tackle - I don't think Wilfork is getting cut, but he is a question mark, and if he isn't what he used to be when he comes back then we're pretty thin at this position. I'd feel a lot better about us next year if we could get a big fat run stuffing NT. I'm not sure who is available, I'd love Louis Nix from Notre Dame but he probably won't last all the way to us.

2. Cornerback - Another position I would like to bolster. If Talib leaves, we'll have Dennard and Logan Ryan who I both like, but after them it's just Arrington and... I don't know who else. Either we bring back Talib or we have to spend a 1st rounder on a CB. This might be more pressing a need than Nose Tackle, actually.

Maybe we could shift McCourty back to CB and then draft a Safety? Or just go with Gregory and Harmon. I doubt it, but Belichick thinks highly of McCourty and probably would ask him to do this if he needed to. But yeah, if we don't bring back Talib this position makes me very nervous.

3. Tight End - Gronk will probably not be back to start the year, so HooMan and Mulligan I guess are the top 2 TEs which is pretty bad. It seems like there's some good TEs available this class too. Maybe Eric Ebron, who's a good pass catcher, or Austin Sefarian Jenkins, a bigger physical blocking TE, would be a wise choice. I don't really know too much about those guys but from what I've seen of them that's what I've gathered. You guys probably know more about Eric Ebron and Austin Sefarian Jenkins than I do.

This probably depends on how confident Belichick is in Gronk coming back and staying healthy though. I may be overrating the need here, but Brady throws one of the best seam balls in the game and right now he has no one to throw it too because Hoo Man isn't athletic enough to run that route down the middle and sprawl out for the catch. That's why I'm putting this position at 3.

4. Linebacker - Spikes could be gone, Fletcher is a FA, and Mayo will be coming back from a serious injury and may never be the same. I'd like us to bolster this position with another linebacker in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I just really put a lot of trust in Scarnechhia and feel like we'll always have a pretty decent O-Line with him on our staff so I don't feel like we need to dedicate a high pick to an O-lineman, especially a Guard or Center.

Anyway, thoughts?

 

[Snake Eyes]

I don't really share everyone else's concerns over Center. I'd be okay with bringing back Wendell, he's been good enough IMO.

I feel like we're most likely to use our 1st rounder on the following positions:

1. Nose Tackle/D-Tackle - I don't think Wilfork is getting cut, but he is a question mark, and if he isn't what he used to be when he comes back then we're pretty thin at this position. I'd feel a lot better about us next year if we could get a big fat run stuffing NT. I'm not sure who is available, I'd love Louis Nix from Notre Dame but he probably won't last all the way to us.

2. Cornerback - Another position I would like to bolster. If Talib leaves, we'll have Dennard and Logan Ryan who I both like, but after them it's just Arrington and... I don't know who else. Either we bring back Talib or we have to spend a 1st rounder on a CB. This might be more pressing a need than Nose Tackle, actually.

Maybe we could shift McCourty back to CB and then draft a Safety? Or just go with Gregory and Harmon. I doubt it, but Belichick thinks highly of McCourty and probably would ask him to do this if he needed to. But yeah, if we don't bring back Talib this position makes me very nervous.

3. Tight End - Gronk will probably not be back to start the year, so HooMan and Mulligan I guess are the top 2 TEs which is pretty bad. It seems like there's some good TEs available this class too. Maybe Eric Ebron, who's a good pass catcher, or Austin Sefarian Jenkins, a bigger physical blocking TE, would be a wise choice. I don't really know too much about those guys but from what I've seen of them that's what I've gathered. You guys probably know more about Eric Ebron and Austin Sefarian Jenkins than I do.

This probably depends on how confident Belichick is in Gronk coming back and staying healthy though. I may be overrating the need here, but Brady throws one of the best seam balls in the game and right now he has no one to throw it too because Hoo Man isn't athletic enough to run that route down the middle and sprawl out for the catch. That's why I'm putting this position at 3.

4. Linebacker - Spikes could be gone, Fletcher is a FA, and Mayo will be coming back from a serious injury and may never be the same. I'd like us to bolster this position with another linebacker in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I just really put a lot of trust in Scarnechhia and feel like we'll always have a pretty decent O-Line with him on our staff so I don't feel like we need to dedicate a high pick to an O-lineman, especially a Guard or Center.

Anyway, thoughts?

Wendell is good enough to get you to the play-offs but probably not to a SB victory. He's also definitely not good enough if you want TFB here for a bit. Brady has said that he wants to play till his arm falls off, the chances of that are best with the QB getting great protection. Every single hit is a potential career ender which is why I want a dominant Center, not someone like Wendell.

With that said, I'd be very interested in trying out Mankins at Center and plugging someon else in at LG, Guards are easier to get than Centers.

 

[Coach42]

After watching 16 games I think TE has to be the absolute number 1 priority. While I would agree that OG/C, DE, LB, S and CB all need to be addressed in some form or another, QB and TE are the 2 positions on this team where the fall of in talent to the backups is catastrophic. I would love Amaro or Enron but would settle for ASJ and a FA like chandler.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

As defenses get faster and smaller, and as the league becomes more of a passing league, a team that can run the ball out of spread formations, while having a QB that defenses HAVE to respect as far as passing the ball, has a tremendous advantage against these new style defenses, designed to rush the passer and defend the pass.

To that end, I think BB was really on to something special by using the 2 TE, 2 WR and 1 RB spread formation. Especially when one of the TE's was really a jumbo WR, who caused all sorts of match up problems and had the ability to block downfield against a DB or WLB.

How does BB get back to that style of offense for 2014.

He needs four ingredients on offense. Two replacement TE's since Gronk won't be playing next season. and an upgrade on the interior of the O Line as well as a potential starting RT, in case Vollmer does not make it back.

So if New England trades their first to the Vikings for the Vikings 2nd and the Vikinigs third that they got from Seattle, plus something for 2014, then we could go:

2nd Vikings = Jenkins TE Washington
2nd Pats = Mewhort OT Ohio State
3rd Pats = Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
3rd Seattle via Vikings = Steen C/OG Alabama
4th Pats = Hampton CB SC
6th Eagles = Coleman DT Cal
6th Pats = Starr OLB North Dakota
7th Pats = Shaw QB SC

 

[ctpatsfan77]

He needs four ingredients on offense. Two replacement TE's since Gronk won't be playing next season. and an upgrade on the interior of the O Line as well as a potential starting RT, in case Vollmer does not make it back.

If you want to argue that Gronkowski won't be GRONK, Destroyer of Defenses and Carrier of Cornerbacks next season, I'll give you that.

But to flat out say "he won't play next season" is a completely different ball of wax.

I also have to wonder if there's any significant likelihood of Vollmer missing the start of the season. He had a broken leg, not a ligament tear, so there's no real reason to think that he won't be ready come training camp next year, if not sooner.

 

[captain stone]

2014 NFL Draft Needs (based on the conclusion of the 16 game regular season schedule):

1. Center

2. Defensive Tackle

3. Tight End

4. Cornerback (Marquice Cole must go!)

5. Running Back

6. Left Tackle (backup)

7. Center (backup)

8. Offensive Guard (backup)

Offensive Unrestricted Free Agents:

Wendell
Svitek
Blount
Hoomanawanui
Mulligan
Edelman

Defensive Unrestricted Free Agents:

Carter
Spikes
Fletcher
Talib
Cole

You forgot Pass-Rusher.

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't really share everyone else's concerns over Center. I'd be okay with bringing back Wendell, he's been good enough IMO.

I feel like we're most likely to use our 1st rounder on the following positions:

1. Nose Tackle/D-Tackle - I don't think Wilfork is getting cut, but he is a question mark, and if he isn't what he used to be when he comes back then we're pretty thin at this position. I'd feel a lot better about us next year if we could get a big fat run stuffing NT. I'm not sure who is available, I'd love Louis Nix from Notre Dame but he probably won't last all the way to us.

2. Cornerback - Another position I would like to bolster. If Talib leaves, we'll have Dennard and Logan Ryan who I both like, but after them it's just Arrington and... I don't know who else. Either we bring back Talib or we have to spend a 1st rounder on a CB. This might be more pressing a need than Nose Tackle, actually.

Maybe we could shift McCourty back to CB and then draft a Safety? Or just go with Gregory and Harmon. I doubt it, but Belichick thinks highly of McCourty and probably would ask him to do this if he needed to. But yeah, if we don't bring back Talib this position makes me very nervous.

3. Tight End - Gronk will probably not be back to start the year, so HooMan and Mulligan I guess are the top 2 TEs which is pretty bad. It seems like there's some good TEs available this class too. Maybe Eric Ebron, who's a good pass catcher, or Austin Sefarian Jenkins, a bigger physical blocking TE, would be a wise choice. I don't really know too much about those guys but from what I've seen of them that's what I've gathered. You guys probably know more about Eric Ebron and Austin Sefarian Jenkins than I do.

This probably depends on how confident Belichick is in Gronk coming back and staying healthy though. I may be overrating the need here, but Brady throws one of the best seam balls in the game and right now he has no one to throw it too because Hoo Man isn't athletic enough to run that route down the middle and sprawl out for the catch. That's why I'm putting this position at 3.

4. Linebacker - Spikes could be gone, Fletcher is a FA, and Mayo will be coming back from a serious injury and may never be the same. I'd like us to bolster this position with another linebacker in the 2nd or 3rd round.

I just really put a lot of trust in Scarnechhia and feel like we'll always have a pretty decent O-Line with him on our staff so I don't feel like we need to dedicate a high pick to an O-lineman, especially a Guard or Center.

Anyway, thoughts?

I agree with most of this, but since there is no Center signed beyond the season the position should remain among the highest priorities. Actually maybe Connolly could shift over to Center.

In the first round I would look for the best available talent at positions that can be upgraded, this includes (WR, TE, C, Guard, DT, CB) <-- in no order

In rounds 2-4 a Center / Guard is essential, along with CB ( if Talib is not re-signed) then TE or DT. For DT I don't think the group we have now is superb but they have held their own, if Wilfork, Kelly or Armstead can contribute DT will at least be average.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

You forgot Pass-Rusher.

This season, the pats had the most sacks of any bb season with the pats. It isn't a huge need like some make it out to be.