15-0 when meeting for the first time in the playoffs

[patchick]

A pretty amazing stat from Volin's breakdown of the Eagles today:

"Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are now 15-0 in the postseason against teams that they didn't face during the regular season."

That would leave just a 12-9 record in repeat engagements. IMO this is absolutely huge, and may go a long way to answering the chicken-and-egg questions from past threads about playing the same team twice. It seems likely it really is the repeat meeting that's the key, not divisional opponents or opponent quality. (Presumably on second meetings, opponents have had a chance to address/counter weaknesses the Pats' original game plans identified and exploited? The adjust-on-the-fly advantage that BB & co. typically enjoy is mitigated?)

Happily, the Patriots and Eagles haven't met in a couple of years.

 

[Uptown]

BB likes the sound of that..

A pretty amazing stat from Volin's breakdown of the Eagles today:

"Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are now 15-0 in the postseason against teams that they didn't face during the regular season."

That would leave just a 10-9 record in repeat engagements. IMO this is absolutely huge, and may go a long way to answering the chicken-and-egg questions from past threads about playing the same team twice. It seems likely it really is the repeat meeting that's the key, not divisional opponents or opponent quality. (Presumably on second meetings, opponents have had a chance to address/counter weaknesses the Pats' original game plans identified and exploited? The adjust-on-the-fly advantage that BB & co. typically enjoy is mitigated?)

Happily, the Patriots and Eagles haven't met in a couple of years.

Actually, he couldn’t care less about stats.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Damn, why did the pats have to play the nfc east in 07

 

[Fixit]

A pretty amazing stat from Volin's breakdown of the Eagles today:

"Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are now 15-0 in the postseason against teams that they didn't face during the regular season."

That would leave just a 10-9 record in repeat engagements. IMO this is absolutely huge, and may go a long way to answering the chicken-and-egg questions from past threads about playing the same team twice. It seems likely it really is the repeat meeting that's the key, not divisional opponents or opponent quality. (Presumably on second meetings, opponents have had a chance to address/counter weaknesses the Pats' original game plans identified and exploited? The adjust-on-the-fly advantage that BB & co. typically enjoy is mitigated?)

Happily, the Patriots and Eagles haven't met in a couple of years.

Wouldn't that be 12-9? I thought Brady was 27-9 overall.

 

[supafly]

I believe that I read the stat against repeat matchups was 12-9 at the beginning of the postseason, but perhaps those numbers were off in the article.

Edit: @Fixit beat me to it

 

[patchick]

Wouldn't that be 12-9? I thought Brady was 27-9 overall.

Thanks, I'll fix the OP!

 

[Hammer of Thor]

A pretty amazing stat from Volin's breakdown of the Eagles today:

"Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are now 15-0 in the postseason against teams that they didn't face during the regular season."

That would leave just a 12-9 record in repeat engagements. IMO this is absolutely huge, and may go a long way to answering the chicken-and-egg questions from past threads about playing the same team twice. It seems likely it really is the repeat meeting that's the key, not divisional opponents or opponent quality. (Presumably on second meetings, opponents have had a chance to address/counter weaknesses the Pats' original game plans identified and exploited? The adjust-on-the-fly advantage that BB & co. typically enjoy is mitigated?)

Happily, the Patriots and Eagles haven't met in a couple of years.

That 12-9 broken down further:

They've faced the Jets twice, in 2006 in 2010. Both times they split the regular season matchup. Went 1-1 in these games.

Excluding the 2 Jets games:
In games where the Patriots won the first matchup: 9-3
In games where the Patriots lost the first matchup: 2-5

This is pretty clear. Despite the throttling the Patriots gave the Jets in the 2nd matchup in 2010, the Jets still won the first game. Generally there's a reason the Patriots lost the first time - the other team was typically better. Facing a team they've already beaten before, there's a reason - because they're typically better.

One of the 3 defeats after they won the first matchup was against the Broncos in 2013. Patriots came back from 24-0 down at halftime to win in OT, and Gronk went 7/90/1. Gronk tore his ACL two weeks later. So the circumstances certainly explained why things changed here...

For completeness on the outliers:
The other 2 defeats where they won the first match were the 2007 Giants (ugh) and the 2009 Ravens.

The 2 wins where they lost the first matchup were the 2001 Rams and the 2004 Steelers.

 

[Fixit]

Thanks, I'll fix the OP!

It's too late. I'm emotionally scarred.

 

[Wheelman]

Well at least you didn't put trollin' Volin's name in the title. But maybe leave out the link. No need to support trollin' Volin.

 

[Uncle Rico]

That's a great stat (though I'm definitely not convinced Volin came up with it; I had seen it elsewhere). Certainly bodes well for this year's SB. And nice follow up details by Hammer!

 

[mosi]

Well, the last couple of games where this was true (Jax and Atlanta) were too close for my old heart!

 

[juny]

For completeness on the outliers:
The other 2 defeats where they won the first match were the 2007 Giants (ugh) and the 2009 Ravens.

The 2 wins where they lost the first matchup were the 2001 Rams and the 2004 Steelers.

and in 2009, welker blew his acl the week before

 

[Hammer of Thor]

and in 2009, welker blew his acl the week before

I guess my mind was able to repress that memory!

This is all very interesting to me. Obviously past performance is no guarantee of future performance, but I find it interesting that they're nearly perfect in the postseason against teams they hadn't lost to in the regular season (i.e. wins or did not play) and didn't suffer a major injury between games in cases where a regular season game happened. That the vast majority of postseason losses were against teams who already beat them at some point in the regular season, or the Pats had a major injury since their first matchup. They're clearly doing something right in all those other games.

 

[patsfan13]

In a couple there were Brady injuries complicating things. The Brady high ankle sprain in the week before the game in 2007 and the sports hernia in the Denver playoff loss the Champ Baily pick six game.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Good thing this team has familiarity with 16-0.

 

[Tb12goesinya]

Maybe Volin can find out last time Pats went 5 straight games without forcing a turnover.. they are on 4 now

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Maybe Volin can find out last time Pats went 5 straight games without forcing a turnover.. they are on 4 now

Not Volin ( thankfully) but my cursory check of profootballreference.com back to 1960 shows NO 4 game stretch without causing a turnover.. Pats are due for a big game with multiple Eagles turnovers......

 

[Pats1989]

In otherwords, playing the Giants in the regular season ( twice), before the SB, let them see more tape on the Patriots and get more familiarized? Or, maybe the Giants D was that good & it wouldn't of mattered if the SB was the first match up?

Couldn't it also be a disadvantage, in this case, that the Eagles are a complete unknown to the Patriots? It would've maybe saved BB time on not studying 2500 plays or whatever it is they'll study.

Dumb question, but are SB teams only allowed to travel to the host city on the Sunday or Monday before the big game, due to hotel accomodations and such? What if Kraft decided to fly everyone down tomorrow as an example?

 

[IllegalContact]

the BB/Brady Pats have yet to score a point in the 1st quarter of an SB

 

[TB_Helmet]

In otherwords, playing the Giants in the regular season ( twice), before the SB, let them see more tape on the Patriots and get more familiarized? Or, maybe the Giants D was that good & it wouldn't of mattered if the SB was the first match up?

Couldn't it also be a disadvantage, in this case, that the Eagles are a complete unknown to the Patriots? It would've maybe saved BB time on not studying 2500 plays or whatever it is they'll study.

Dumb question, but are SB teams only allowed to travel to the host city on the Sunday or Monday before the big game, due to hotel accomodations and such? What if Kraft decided to fly everyone down tomorrow as an example?

The Giants were on record as saying that playing the Pats in the regular season showed them that they could hang with us and gave them a lot of confidence in the Super Bowl.

Judging by the stats in the OP, I'm gonna say we're at an advantage not having played the Eagles this year.

I'd be interested in generalizing this and seeing what the stats are for any playoff matchup where the two teams met in the regular season. Does the losing team the first time tend to do better the second time?