Off The Board

Every year at this time we are trying to figure out what we think the Patriots should do in the first round and who they will take with their first pick. Unfortunately much of it is wasted motion because they are always picking at the end of the round and many of those we want the most will be long gone. So what I am wondering is what consensus we can reach about those who will be off the board and what we will really be looking at as a short list of who they will really be picking from? There is still a good deal of movement left but it should settle over the next month and we can get a good sense of who is riding and who may be falling into the Patriots territory. So far this is the list of those I really think will be gone, but the point of this is to get as much input and why as possible.

QB: J. Winston FSU/ M. Mariotta

RB: M. Gordon Wisconsin
I think Gurley will be available because he may not be ready to start the season and many won't take the risk when they have other pressing need.

TE: No TE's are a lock to go before the Patriots pick but need could drive a team to take M. Williams

WR: K. White W.Va./ A. Cooper Alabama
Most have D. Parker-Louisville as a lock but I don't to this point.

OT: There seems to be a great deal of disagreement over the OT's and the top OL is most likely going to be a guard. E. Flowers Miami and A.Peat Stanford seem to be a locks but even guys like Flemming's and Humphries can be found outside the first in various mocks right now.

OG: B. Scherff Iowa Top OL in the draft.

C: None

DEFENSE

DT: L.Williams USC/ D.Shelton Washington/ M.Brown Texas/ E Goldman FSU Good crop of DT'swill go early.

DE: R. Gregory Nebraska/ S. Ray Missouri

DE/OLB: D. Fowler Florida/ A. Dupree Kentucky/ V. Beasely Clemson

S: L. Collins Alabama

CB: T. Wayne's MSU


That's my list of those who will be off the board when the Patriots pick. It's incomplete but that is by design because I am hoping that all of those here will add to it and just maybe we can figure out who they really will have a shot at come draft day.

The following are names I could easily see jump into the first:

Arik Armstead
Jordan Phillips
Odighizuwa (boo!)
Jalen Collins
Eli Harold
Mel Kiper is convinced Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett are first rounders
I wouldn't discount the two FSU CBs
Some suggestion Mario Edwards could be a first rounder although that would surprise me
Byron Jones
Jaelen Strong and DGB
Stephone Anthony (?)

There's always some surprises between now and draft day.

Who will be gone for sure... I have 17.

QB - Winston
QB - Mariota
WR - Cooper
WR - White
WR - Parker
OL - Scherff
OL - Peat
OL - Collins
RB - Gordon
DT - Williams
DT - Shelton
DT - Goldman
Edge - Gregory
Edge - Ray
Edge - Fowler
CB - Waynes
S - Collins

Then I have 5 more I am 90% sure will be gone

Edge - Dupree - other good edge options might drop him
Edge - Beasley - might be viewed as undersized
Thompson - Athletic but what will he do? I don't even want to name a position.
OT - Clemmings - So many good OTs.. what if a few get picked over him?
OT - Flowers - Same.

Those IMO are 22 guys we should not see but some have outside.

If any of them fall (save the QBs) auto draft.

BobDigital said:

Who will be gone for sure... I have 17.

QB - Winston
QB - Mariota
WR - Cooper
WR - White
WR - Parker
OL - Scherff
OL - Peat
OL - Collins
RB - Gordon
DT - Williams
DT - Shelton
DT - Goldman
Edge - Gregory
Edge - Ray
Edge - Fowler
CB - Waynes
S - Collins

Then I have 5 more I am 90% sure will be gone

Edge - Dupree - other good edge options might drop him
Edge - Beasley - might be viewed as undersized
Thompson - Athletic but what will he do? I don't even want to name a position.
OT - Clemmings - So many good OTs.. what if a few get picked over him?
OT - Flowers - Same.

Those IMO are 22 guys we should not see but some have outside.

If any of them fall (save the QBs) auto draft.

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Thanks, that's exactly what I was looking for and it's very similar to what I and I am sure many others have off the board when the Patriots are picking. When I am looking at who the Patriots will pick I like to eliminate those they have no shot at first and then make a short a list of who is is remaining and then list them in order of who I would take, similar to the proxy mocks most of us have done.

As it sits right now I am looking at Gurley, Odighizuwa, Erving, Humphries, and Philips as strong possibilities for them at #32 and I would be fine with any of them.

manxman2601 said:

The following are names I could easily see jump into the first:

Arik Armstead
Jordan Phillips
Odighizuwa (boo!)
Jalen Collins
Eli Harold
Mel Kiper is convinced Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett are first rounders
I wouldn't discount the two FSU CBs
Some suggestion Mario Edwards could be a first rounder although that would surprise me
Byron Jones
Jaelen Strong and DGB
Stephone Anthony (?)

There's always some surprises between now and draft day.

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Thanks Manx, who do you think will definitely be gone when they pick?

From Pat Kirwan:

just interviewed Brett Hundley..don't be surprised if he goes in the bottom of the first round

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If it drops Gurley, Odighizuwa or Erving to us, I'm happy with this.

Ivan said:

Thanks Manx, who do you think will definitely be gone when they pick?

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Sorry Ivan, I missed this. Will have a response over the weekend.

Was listening to Daniel Jeremiah's podcast and he said that there are too many teams in love with Gurley for him not to go in the first round.

manxman2601 said:

Was listening to Daniel Jeremiah's podcast and he said that there are too many teams in love with Gurley for him not to go in the first round.

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That's always been my assumption. I'd take Gurley if he is on the board, but I'm not holding my breath.

manxman2601 said:

From Pat Kirwan:



If it drops Gurley, Odighizuwa or Erving to us, I'm happy with this.

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I'd deal Philly 32 for their 2nd this year and first next year. They need a cb. Chip gets his QB. I think they might miss playoffs again.

patsfaninpa said:

I'd deal Philly 32 for their 2nd this year and first next year. They need a cb. Chip gets his QB. I think they might miss playoffs again.

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Im not sure the Eagles would be that incompetent. A second and next year first for Hundley?

manxman2601 said:

Im not sure the Eagles would be that incompetent. A second and next year first for Hundley?

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Chip won the battle for more say on personnel. Take advantage of the newbie. Remember Josh drafting Tebow? And, Saints did it for Mark Ingram.

patsfaninpa said:

Chip won the battle for more say on personnel. Take advantage of the newbie. Remember Josh drafting Tebow? And, Saints did it for Mark Ingram.

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But isn't the point of Chip's offense that the QB is devalued? Picking him with their own first I can see or waiting to see how far he falls in the second and maybe making a small trade up, but giving up a first rounder for him, I think that would be folly. I like the Hundley to Eagles fit but that seems too rich.

manxman2601 said:

But isn't the point of Chip's offense that the QB is devalued? Picking him with their own first I can see or waiting to see how far he falls in the second and maybe making a small trade up, but giving up a first rounder for him, I think that would be folly. I like the Hundley to Eagles fit but that seems too rich.

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I'm not saying they should do it. Or, that it's a fair deal. All is fair in love, war and football

manxman2601 said:

Was listening to Daniel Jeremiah's podcast and he said that there are too many teams in love with Gurley for him not to go in the first round.

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That's what I'm seeing as well. And It seems like Odighozuwa and Humphries are both making serious moves up n draft boards since the combine.

manxman2601 said:

Sorry Ivan, I missed this. Will have a response over the weekend.

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No problem Manx, I appreciate your input. I think that by the time the draft rolls around we should have a really good idea of who will be around at the end of the first and who will be off the board when they pick.

As per @Ivan 's request, here's how I see the first round breaking down:

Locks

QB - Winston, Mariota
RB - None
WR - Kevin White, Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker
OL - Andrus Peat, La'el Collins, Brandon Scherff
DL - Danny Shelton, Leonard Williams
EDGE - Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree, Shane Ray, Dante Fowler, Randy Gregory
LB - None
DB - Trae Waynes, Jalen Collins

That's 17.

Likely To Go Before 32

QB - None
RB - Todd Gurley
WR - Jaelen Strong
OL - TJ Clemmings, Ereck Flowers
DL - Malcom Brown, Owamagbe Odighizuwa (medical?), Arik Armstead, Jordan Phillips
EDGE - None
LB - None
DB - Byron Jones, Landon Collins

That's 27

In play around 32:

QB - Brett Hundley?
RB - Melvin Gordon
TE - Maxx Williams
WR - DGB, Devin Smith, Breshad Perriman?, Phillip Dorsett
OL - Cam Erving, Jake Fisher, DJ Humphries
DL - Eddie Goldman,
EDGE - Eli Harold
LB - See Below*
DB - Kevin Johnson, Marcus Peters

That's 41 names. No doubt I've missed some. There will also be some surprises I suspect between now and April. I'm personally hoping that Obdighizuwa and TJ Clemmings drop a tier.



* At least one of the linebackers should be in play at this point, I'm just not clear on who. If it was me, it would be Eric Kendricks or Stephone Anthony, but Perryman and Mckinney seem to be grading out here in most big boards.

patsfaninpa said:

I'd deal Philly 32 for their 2nd this year and first next year. They need a cb. Chip gets his QB. I think they might miss playoffs again.

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Their QB is Mariotta. Greg Cosell was saying he thinks they are clearing room on the cap so they can retool with cheapers guy and get some depth and then trade most of their draft to get Mariotta.

manxman2601 said:

As per @Ivan 's request, here's how I see the first round breaking down:

Locks

QB - Winston, Mariota
RB - None
WR - Kevin White, Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker
OL - Andrus Peat, La'el Collins, Brandon Scherff
DL - Danny Shelton, Leonard Williams
EDGE - Vic Beasley, Bud Dupree, Shane Ray, Dante Fowler, Randy Gregory
LB - None
DB - Trae Waynes, Jalen Collins

That's 17.

Likely To Go Before 32

QB - None
RB - Todd Gurley
WR - Jaelen Strong
OL - TJ Clemmings, Ereck Flowers
DL - Malcom Brown, Owamagbe Odighizuwa (medical?), Arik Armstead, Jordan Phillips
EDGE - None
LB - None
DB - Byron Jones, Landon Collins

That's 27

In play around 32:

QB - Brett Hundley?
RB - Melvin Gordon
TE - Maxx Williams
WR - DGB, Devin Smith, Breshad Perriman?, Phillip Dorsett
OL - Cam Erving, Jake Fisher, DJ Humphries
DL - Eddie Goldman,
EDGE - Eli Harold
LB - See Below*
DB - Kevin Johnson, Marcus Peters

That's 41 names. No doubt I've missed some. There will also be some surprises I suspect between now and April. I'm personally hoping that Obdighizuwa and TJ Clemmings drop a tier.



* At least one of the linebackers should be in play at this point, I'm just not clear on who. If it was me, it would be Eric Kendricks or Stephone Anthony, but Perryman and Mckinney seem to be grading out here in most big boards.

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I think Gordon will go before Gurley. No ACL concerns, highly productive.. would be surprising if he stays on the board longer than Gurley.

luuked said:

I think Gordon will go before Gurley. No ACL concerns, highly productive.. would be surprising if he stays on the board longer than Gurley.

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Maybe. I'm personally not a huge fan of Gordon. Would take Gurley over him in a heartbeat. You are probably right though.