Idle thoughts - The ambitious edtion

I think revis would take a 3 year 43-45 mill deal to stay...but will we pay it...i hope.

I know i don't know him or know who he is but i really think he does like winning now that he has a taste of it here and being in such a strong locker room. Yeah he may listen to other offers. But if we offer same amount of $$ ect..he comes back IMO

110% worth it baby!

RelocatedPatFan said:

I think it's called intangibles.

Because it defies what your rational part tells you (the sum of the parts don't add up to the whole). Football IQ synergy!

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I think its called..... clairvoyance (from French clair meaning "clear" and voyance meaning "vision") is used to refer to the ability to gain information about an object, person, location or physical event through means other than the known senses

patfanken said:

Yeah, but the problem is when you are forking out 42 odd million that you'd like at least the EXPECTATION that it be earned. In my deal, 60% is fully guaranteed even from injury. All he has to do to earn all or part of the rest is actually play the game. no funny money.......cash on the table. $28MM guaranteed the day the deal is signed (only paid out over 3), and 14 Million paid out in addtional per game checks over the 3 year period. He doesn't even have to be good enough to start to get paid each week. Just good enough to be useful

It was never my intention that this contract be like so many in the NFL. So while I believe Revis isn't worth more than 14mm (and I'd rather be closer to 12), I think he talent deserves the kind of contract that is a majority guaranteed, and the team is protected against season ending injuries. This is a LIKELY to be made "incentive" since all he has to do is pick up his $388K check every week he's still in the defensive game plan. This is NOT an onerous caveat. Its more than fairly compensates Reveis for elite play. A good contract is never just one way.

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If you have guaranteed $28M even against injury, I have misunderstood your deal. If the team is willing to do that, I suspect that a longer deal could be worked out. In any case, your AAV is a bit lower than I think he might sign, but your guaranteed money may make up for the shortfall.

My gut feel is that a player playing on a $12M show-me contract would be seeking more than $14M after a pro-bowl quality year.

We lost a superbowl because said Dbacks couldn't stop game winning Td catches. Revis is a guy that can make or break a defense, New England will have to put there money where there mouths are. Awesome post otherwise

I wonder if Revis being 30 will have anything to do with his next deal

A few thoughts on the 'Revis Effect':

1. Contrary to the theory proposed ( a popular one) that the new rules minimize the need for good DB's - I actually believe the opposite. In a league that favors the pass catchers so heavily you are going to need some serious talent to compete with the better passing attacks. Put it this way, if Burglary was made legal tomorrow - would you be upgrading or downgrading your security system?

2. Revis value is not isolated just to himself - he makes players around him better - this guy was a Belichick disciple before they even met. Great practice habits - not a big trash talker - this is a guy who leads by example.

3. The thing standing between the Patriots and week to week shoot outs is the performance of this defensive backfield - the D-line really is a mixture of odds and ends and certainly isn't outright dominant. This is the most confident I have felt about a Patriots defence in 10 years or so. Recent years i'm just hoping we get the ball at the end of the game so that we can win - not this year!

4. There are a few non-QB's who you pay - JJ Watt and Revis are two of the small group - they are not nice complementary pieces that rack up less important stats (INTs/sacks etc) - they are genuine game changers - guys that other team must game plan around.

5. Pay Revis. Make him the best paid DB in the game. Make the cuts elsewhere to make this happen.

livinginthe past said:

5. Pay Revis. Make him the best paid DB in the game. Make the cuts elsewhere to make this happen.

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They should have the cap space to extend him and Mccourty with a few other let goes ect

Brady_to_Moss said:

I wonder if Revis being 30 will have anything to do with his next deal

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Hopefully not. Revis like Steve Smith Sr. are the types that play well late into there careers and he is showing no signs of tailing off. 3yr contract is a safe bet

PatCat said:

Hopefully not. Revis like Steve Smith Sr. are the types that play well late into there careers and he is showing no signs of tailing off. 3yr contract is a safe bet

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That's what i say as well...3 year deal

Brady_to_Moss said:

They should have the cap space to extend him and Mccourty with a few other let goes ect

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especially since signing a 3-deal with Revis would reduce the 2015 cap by $13M, likely to be enough to pay for McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas and Chung.

mgteich said:

especially since signing a 3-deal with Revis would reduce the 2015 cap by $13M, more than enough to pay for McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas and Chung.

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yup..it can definitely be done...if it doesn't get done i won't lie i will be very upset at the pats.

mgteich said:

especially since signing a 3-deal with Revis would reduce the 2015 cap by $13M, more than enough to pay for McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas and Chung.

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Could, not would. It's all about making the adjustment between a real 3 year contract instead of a 2 year contract disguised as a 3 year contract and saving space this year. But still. We could give him $14M the next year and still save $6M on the cap from what we have now. We have some top guys to keep, DMac, Gostkowski, and Revis, and we should be able to keep them if we want to. It would be nice to keep Vereen. But I wouldn't want to pay him much. He isn't that good.

Marinlik said:

Could, not would. It's all about making the adjustment between a real 3 year contract instead of a 2 year contract disguised as a 3 year contract and saving space this year. But still. We could give him $14M the next year and still save $6M on the cap from what we have now. We have some top guys to keep, DMac, Gostkowski, and Revis, and we should be able to keep them if we want to. It would be nice to keep Vereen. But I wouldn't want to pay him much. He isn't that good.

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Yes, one option is to pay Revis $14M a year, with the same pay each year. This will NOT happen. This just isn't the way contracts are structured. There is almost always a signing bonus, which is by rule spread over the three years of the contract. An $18M signing bonus would result in a $6M cap hit for 2015. I don't don't see us wanting a higher salary than $1M in addition to a high signing bonus. The cap savings could be made to be even more than $13M if the there is a smaller signing bonus with the reduction added to the 2015 salary as guaranteed money.

mgteich said:

Yes, one option is to pay Revis $14M a year, with the same pay each year. This will NOT happen. This just isn't the way contracts are structured. There is almost always a signing bonus, which is by rule spread over the three years of the contract. An $18M signing bonus would result in a $6M cap hit for 2015. I don't don't see us wanting a higher salary than $1M in addition to a high signing bonus. The cap savings could be made to be even more than $13M if the there is a smaller signing bonus with the reduction added to the 2015 salary as guaranteed money.

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I agree that the cap will be spread around. But there are ways of doing that in which you don't pay the 32 year old corner $20M in a year or cut him making it a 2 year contract

Why wouldn't we give him more than $1M in base the next year? We can definitely afford to balance the contract better instead of extremely backloading it.

$388k per game ... My head just exploded.

mgteich said:

especially since signing a 3-deal with Revis would reduce the 2015 cap by $13M, likely to be enough to pay for McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas and Chung.

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This. This is the key.

Miguel currently estimates the Pats' current cap hits at $132M for 2015, with an estimated league-wide cap of $142M (splitting estimates of $140M and $144M). That leaves about $10M left over. I'm assuming the Pats will carry forward some money from 2014, and will sign a bunch of ERFAs and low-budget players. They will want a few million for the rookie pool and some money for UDFAs, and some money to carry over into 2015. But if the above can be done, then the Pats will have their 2014 defense essentially intact without having to address Wilfork and Mayo's contracts, and a fair amount of space in reserve to address the offense. Add in some restructures, and they should be able to keep the players that they really want to keep.

mayoclinic said:

This. This is the key.

Miguel currently estimates the Pats' current cap hits at $132M for 2015, with an estimated league-wide cap of $142M (splitting estimates of $140M and $144M). That leaves about $10M left over. I'm assuming the Pats will carry forward some money from 2014, and will sign a bunch of ERFAs and low-budget players. They will want a few million for the rookie pool and some money for UDFAs, and some money to carry over into 2015. But if the above can be done, then the Pats will have their 2014 defense essentially intact without having to address Wilfork and Mayo's contracts, and a fair amount of space in reserve to address the offense. Add in some restructures, and they should be able to keep the players that they really want to keep.

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Does that include the current cap hit for revis in 2015, what about mccourty? Is that all included in the $132, if so a longer term deal relieves some of that doesn't it?

obgod3 said:

Does that include the current cap hit for revis in 2015, what about mccourty? Is that all included in the $132, if so a longer term deal relieves some of that doesn't it?

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Revis currently is under contract for 2015 with a 2015 cap hit of $25M, which is included. McCourty is a UFA for 2015, so he is not included. So the answer would be yes, as I explained, and as MgT argues.

For Miguel's breakdown see:

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=936?sc=rss

Note that the Pats can save considerable 2015 cap space by converting $6M of TB's salary into signing bonus ($4M cap savings), not to mention possible restructuring of Wilfork, Mayo, Arrington and Amendola, and possible cuts of Amendola and Hooman.

As MgT argues, if Revis can be signed to a 3 year extension his cap hit can be lowered to around $12-15M, for a $10-13M savings (he argues for the higher number; I'm being a bit more conservative). That should cover most or maybe even all of the cap hit for extending McCourty (probably about a $5M cap hit for 2015 on a multi-year extension), Chung, Casillas, Ayers and Branch.

I look at it this way:

- $142M league-wide cap
- $132M in current contracts cap hits, plus another $3M in ERFAs and escalators = $135M
- $4.6M in dead money =roughly $140M
- About $5M in carryover gives the Pats about $7M in cap space. They will want about that much space for the rookie pool, UDFAs, and carryover, so they are at about net 0.
- Revis extension and money frees allows for the key defensive players to be re-signed (Revis, McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas, Chung)
- Restructurings, cuts and exensions frees up money to re-sign the other key players (Vereen, Connolly, maybe Cannon, Develin, maybe Bolden)

I think it will take some adept maneuvering, but it's doable, but that's just a first-pass guesstimate, and I'm not a capologist.

mayoclinic said:

Revis currently is under contract for 2015 with a 2015 cap hit of $25M, which is included. McCourty is a UFA for 2015, so he is not included. So the answer would be yes, as I explained, and as MgT argues.

For Miguel's breakdown see:

http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=936?sc=rss

Note that the Pats can save considerable 2015 cap space by converting $6M of TB's salary into signing bonus ($4M cap savings), not to mention possible restructuring of Wilfork, Mayo, Arrington and Amendola, and possible cuts of Amendola and Hooman.

As MgT argues, if Revis can be signed to a 3 year extension his cap hit can be lowered to around $12-15M, for a $10-13M savings (he argues for the higher number; I'm being a bit more conservative). That should cover most or maybe even all of the cap hit for extending McCourty (probably about a $5M cap hit for 2015 on a multi-year extension), Chung, Casillas, Ayers and Branch.

I look at it this way:

- $142M league-wide cap
- $132M in current contracts cap hits, plus another $3M in ERFAs and escalators = $135M
- $4.6M in dead money =roughly $140M
- About $5M in carryover gives the Pats about $7M in cap space. They will want about that much space for the rookie pool, UDFAs, and carryover, so they are at about net 0.
- Revis extension and money frees allows for the key defensive players to be re-signed (Revis, McCourty, Branch, Ayers, Casillas, Chung)
- Restructurings, cuts and exensions frees up money to re-sign the other key players (Vereen, Connolly, maybe Cannon, Develin, maybe Bolden)

I think it will take some adept maneuvering, but it's doable, but that's just a first-pass guesstimate, and I'm not a capologist.

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In this kind of scenario, is there any position to which they'd be likely to add an expensive FA without an off-setting cut or disappointing non-signing? I don't see many.

QB -- no.
RB -- no, except that if Vereen isn't signed somebody else needs to take his place.
TE -- no, with the emergence of Wright.
WR -- sorry, no.
OT -- no.
Interior OL -- one of the two real candidates IMO

DT/3-4 DE -- Wilfork, Easley, Siliga, Chris Jones, Branch ... I'm thinking no.
4-3 DE/3-4 OLB -- an area of depth weakness for quite a while now. Ayers shores it up somewhat. Still, one of the two real candidates IMO for serious shoring-up, w/ Ninko aging and Chandler Jones getting hurt a lot.
Pure LB -- I'm guessing no, although if edge players aren't added then maybe somebody could take some load off Hightower to free him up for more edge-rusher snaps.
CB -- We seem to be quite rich in depth.
S -- Our starters are pretty effective and there's a lot of depth, so I'd say no.

Special teams -- the positions at which there's any need (mainly LS) are not expensive ones

mgteich said:

Yes, one option is to pay Revis $14M a year, with the same pay each year. This will NOT happen. This just isn't the way contracts are structured. There is almost always a signing bonus, which is by rule spread over the three years of the contract. An $18M signing bonus would result in a $6M cap hit for 2015. I don't don't see us wanting a higher salary than $1M in addition to a high signing bonus. The cap savings could be made to be even more than $13M if the there is a smaller signing bonus with the reduction added to the 2015 salary as guaranteed money.

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Frontloading the contracts, so you have smaller cap hits in the early years and have bigger ones come later, is probably the most common way to do it. And that's fine if you are loading up on cap space and making a Lombardi push like the Bronco's did. When you are in a better long term situation, like the Pats currently are, why bother. Getting immediate cap relief feels great, but it is very temporary.

Instead why not (in this case), create a contract that actually pays what what he would get year to year. Getting relief on an immediate basis will begin to hurt almost immediately. There are always going to be "the next" key draft picks to resign. That never stops being an urgency. What' s wrong with paying as you go (a novel concept)

If you want some cap relief, then create a phoney baloney 4th year that no one believes or cares about to absorb some cap savings into a fourth year that won't be picked up or redone. THEN after that we can begin the thread to discuss moving Revis to S at the end of his career.