My reponse to people who think Brady is in decline.

I saw that Kirk Minihane (and not just him, many others over the past week have said the same thing) wrote an article saying to basically "Look at Brady's stats since 2010, especially the passer rating, and see how it goes down every year."

These are the stats and years Minihane lists to show Brady's drop in numbers year by year.

Passer rating
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

completion percentage
2010: 65.9
2011: 65.5
2012: 63.0
2013: 60.5
2014: 59.1

Yards per attempt
2011: 8.6
2012: 7.6
2013: 6.9
2014: 5.8

Touchdown passes
2011: 39
2012: 34
2013: 25
2014: On pace for 16

Passing yards
2011: 5,235
2012: 4,827
2013: 4,343
2014: 3,164

Surely the reason these numbers are going down is because Brady is getting older each year, right?

Wrong. Extend the time table --- to 2006.

Passer rating
2006: 87.9 - 29 years old
2007: 117.2
2009: 96.2
2010: 111.0
2011: 105.6
2012: 98.7
2013: 87.3
2014: 79.1

Huh... that's weird. Tom Brady was 29 in 2006, surely not at the point where age should be hindering his play, and yet his passer rating is a feeble 87.9? That's the exact same as 2013 when he was 36 years old! We're only 4 games through this season, so it's safe to assume Brady's passer rating will probably finish right at 87 or so by the end of the year. It's certainly too soon to say it will flatten out at this 79.1 mark, there's just way too much football left.

Just for fun though, I decided to find out Brady's passer rating in 2006 through 4 games so we could get a more apples to apples comparison between 2006 and 2014.

Brady's passer rating in 2006 at age 29 through 4 games... was *80.7. Almost identical to what it is in 2014 at age 37.

So please, enlighten me. How is Brady "in decline" if he is putting up the exact numbers now as he did when he was 29? Was he also in decline at age 29? That seems a tad young to already be in decline.

Perhaps there is some other correlation we can make, because age appears to not make a difference --- after all, he is performing the exact same at age 37 as he did at age 29.

If you'll recall, in 2006 Brady had perhaps the worst support cast since.. well, now. Reche Caldwell, Ben Watson, Troy Brown, Kevin Faulk, Doug Gabriel, Laurence Maroney.
Pretty similar to the current supporting cast of Edelman, Gronk, Vereen, Dobson, LaFell, and the worst offensive line in the NFL at 55 pressures.

So the point of the thread is this: Brady is not declining; age is not the reason for the low passer rating this season. So please stop repeating that same bull$**** notion just because the media is saying it. Correlation =/= causation. The reason for the drop in numbers is because of lack of support at WR, TE, RB, and OL.

I do NOT want this to turn into a debate about if the front office is helping him out enough, that was NOT the point of this thread. This was only meant to address the "Tom Brady is too old!" people.

*Formula to find out Brady's passer rating through first 4 games of 2006:
Completions: 72
Attempts: 133
Yds: 891
TDs: 6
INTs: 3
a=(comp/att - .3) x 5 = 1.206
b=(yds/att - 3) x .25 = .9248
c=(td/att) x 20 =.9022
d=2.375 - (int/att) =1.811
(a+b+c+d) / 6= .807
.807 x 100= 80.7

Some more stats to compare 2006 to 2014:
2014:
Passer rating: 79.1
Yds: 791
Y/A: 5.77
Completion %: 59%
Interceptions: 2

2006:
Passer rating: 80.7
Yds: 891
Y/A: 6.69
Completion %: 54%
Interceptions: 3

pretty much everyone by now acknowledges that brady is past his peak (and in decline)

its just an argument of how much of a decline and how much more BB should have done to help him these last couple of years

question, how many people reading this really think brady is still at his peak?

I think he's perfectly capable of running a 2012 elite top tier all time offense with protection and guys able to get open and game plans that aren't completely awful.

There's no question that the issue is surrounding players. The idiots talking about a Brady decline got their asses handed to them on that issue last year when Gronk returned healthy and Brady's numbers shot right back up to the top.

Conveniently, that's already been forgotten.


Now, does that mean that Brady's had no decline, anywhere? No. What it means is that we can't evaluate any potential decline until hes had some games with a surrounding cast that's not crapping the bed.

james87654 said:

pretty much everyone by now acknowledges that brady is past his peak (and in decline)

its just an argument of how much of a decline and how much more BB should have done to help him these last couple of years

question, how many people reading this really think brady is still at his peak?

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As you said. I think that it is almost impossible to say that Brady is not in decline. That would mean that he is at his peak level at 37 years of age, or still getting better. I just don't believe that. I think that it's crazy to look at Brady play now and say that he is as at his best ever.


The question is how much/little has he declined from his peak, and how fast will that decline go from now until the end of his contract? Will it go really slow, or will it just thunder on and give him that Brett Favre type last year when he was much worse than the year before?

Bottom line: It's a fake narrative.

The real narrative is his surrounding cast.

There's better TV ratings in saying Brady sucks than in going into actual explanations about protection and WR's getting open.

My response? Take a flying leap off a bridge

But he's 37..so it's starting to happen

Deus Irae said:

Now, does that mean that Brady's had no decline, anywhere? No. What it means is that we can't evaluate any potential decline until hes had some games with a surrounding cast that's not crapping the bed.

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Right on the money. If TB continues playing the way he has been playing with a strong supporting cast, then we could talk about his "decline". Honestly, I think the Forehead has declined more than Brady has, but his offensive cast has allowed him to put up nice stats that superficially cover up that fact.

A lot of people overreact to the latest game, and ours was a doozy so everyone has come to kick what they believe is the rotting carcass of the NE Patriots. 3/4 of the season left to go. Claims that the Patriots, Belichick, Brady have lost it are premature.

james87654 said:

pretty much everyone by now acknowledges that brady is past his peak (and in decline)

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Yeah, and "everyone knows" Peyton is the best ever to play the game, right? I prefer facts and reasoned argument as opposed to the mindlessly going with the herd.

Marinlik said:

As you said. I think that it is almost impossible to say that Brady is not in decline. That would mean that he is at his peak level at 37 years of age, or still getting better. I just don't believe that. I think that it's crazy to look at Brady play now and say that he is as at his best ever.

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What kind of supporting cast does he have? Oh yeah, a Swiss cheese O-line and Edelperson is the only real receiver right now.

Snake Eyes said:

Yeah, and "everyone knows" Peyton is the best ever to play the game, right? I prefer facts and reasoned argument as opposed to the mindlessly going with the herd.

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Don't worry Snake Eyes, we'll hear all about Manning's decline come January or February.

I would take a 29 year old Brady over a 37 year old Brady.....therefore he is in decline

we are gonna find out within the next couple of years who is a patriot fan and who is just a brady homer

its gonna be fun

i suspect that some people will leave and some will just snipe at BB and JAG (or whoever the QB is)

at least im honest about my bias

kirk minihane hates tom brady.
surprised tom still bothers to appear on weei radio. they always trash him on the morning show.

Snake Eyes said:

Yeah, and "everyone knows" Peyton is the best ever to play the game, right? I prefer facts and reasoned argument as opposed to the mindlessly going with the herd.

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rodney harrison said peyton is better

i suppose he is anti-brady, huh?

granted, he is just one opinion......but a significant one

Snake Eyes said:

Yeah, and "everyone knows" Peyton is the best ever to play the game, right? I prefer facts and reasoned argument as opposed to the mindlessly going with the herd.

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as far as facts

peyton has better playoff QB rating, comp %, and Y/A than brady

peyton is one more SB away from being the GOAT.....and hes more likely to get this than brady

this drives the brady homers insane

i feel dirty arguing for manning......i dont even like him that much, personally

but i find the "Brady is superhuman" crowd to be incorrigible

james87654 said:

as far as facts

peyton has better playoff QB rating, comp %, and Y/A than brady

peyton is one more SB away from being the GOAT.....and hes more likely to get this than brady

this drives the brady homers insane

i feel dirty arguing for manning......i dont even like him that much, personally

but i find the "Brady is superhuman" crowd to be incorrigible

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Peyton has always played with loaded offenses, those make a difference when comparing stats, just look at Brady's stats last year with and without Gronk.

Colts fans would always say "If Peyton had Brady's defense...", and the problem is that if he did they wouldnt be able to afford his offense, and Peyton's stats wouldn't be so amazing.

Anyway, if you look in the original post the stats become more interesting when you consider who Brady was throwing to those years.

james87654 said:

but i find the "Brady is superhuman" crowd to be incorrigible

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I don't know if anyone has argued that TFB is superhuman, I just think he's definitively better than Manning. Brady has been given less than stellar weapons for much of his career and he's done great things with them.

The whole, "He just wins, " thing tarnishes a bit when he stops winning. All the Lombardis were won with defense. Brady takes a big chunk of the payroll now and that leaves less for the rest. THAT is why the team has been in a slow decline since winning all those superbowls -- Brady's skill has not increased at the same pace as his cap impact.

As long as #12 is pulling down elite QB bucks, there will not be enough money to build an elite defense. Tom will not be an elite QB going forward, so the team will not be elite. When he retires, a journeyman QB will be good enough and cheap enough for this team to return to SB form.

Along the way, the team will be competitive. Lightning could bring another ring. There is no resason to turn off the TV. Enjoy the building of the next wave as the last member of our championship franchise rides off into the sunset.

Anyone who followed the team before Kraft arrived should be able to appreciate this team even if they are not superbowl caliber.