OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easier

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

onegameatatime said:

Jets have a very good chance to win.

Good chance Baltimore beats Cincy.

Click to expand...

While I agree the odds are that BAL will beat CIN, this game may appear to be a little tougher than most are giving credit for.

When you combine BAL's struggles on the road this yr, with CIN's win and they're in formula, I see a possible upset in the making...

With a point spread less than 3, we shouldn't take this one for granted.

IF they do get in, let's just hope they (or whatever other team gets the 6 seed) can beat the Texans in the first round. That's all I want to see--it's time that we got a bit of luck on this season.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

For what it is worth: AFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive for the wild card that is lower than that is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.


There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot:
Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.

Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.

Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:

• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Ron Sellers said:

For what it is worth: AFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive that for the wild card that is lower is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.


There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot: Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.

Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.

Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:

• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win

Click to expand...

Nice job on the analysis.

One can easily see that the common variables here are the results of the first 3 games, in the aspects of Jets, Ravens, and Texans wins.

It should be noted that the pointspread of ALL 3 of those games is less than 3 points.

That factor alone, (and maybe it means more to me from a wagering standpoint) should prove that the Jets chances are not as good as some would believe. When you consider that ALL 3 of those games need to go a certain direction, and they are ALL close matchups, that should make us who don't want the NYJ in the playoffs feel a bit better.

Then again, maybe it doesn't mean as much to the average fan.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Ron Sellers said:

For what it is worth: AFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive for the wild card that is lower than that is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.


There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot:
Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.

Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.

Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:

• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win

Click to expand...

To piggy back off of that, out of the 128 possible playoff scenarios in the seven AFC playoff implication games, the Jets only make the playoffs 12 times. So the Jests are only included in the playoff scenario as the 6th seed for a whopping 9.375% of the time.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Seanzayyy said:

To piggy back off of that, out of the 128 possible playoff scenarios in the seven AFC playoff implication games, the Jets only make the playoffs 12 times. So the Jests are only included in the playoff scenario as the 6th seed for a whopping 9.375% of the time.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg

Click to expand...

Nice chart. Very colourful.
I would like to see that chart updated with all of the tie-game scenarios factored in.
Could you get working on that. I'll check back in 5 minutes.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

There are three teams that scare me in the playoffs as a patriots fan.

Ravens, steelers, and JETS

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

bondjames. said:

There are three teams that scare me in the playoffs as a patriots fan.

Ravens, steelers, and JETS

Click to expand...

I can understand the Steelers and Ravens, but not the Jets. I just don't see them beating us, let alone even making the playoffs.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

TPL said:

Nice chart. Very colourful.
I would like to see that chart updated with all of the tie-game scenarios factored in.
Could you get working on that. I'll check back in 5 minutes.

Click to expand...

Ties. Feh.

Seriously, though, if you really care, here you go. :snob:

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Ron Sellers said:

For what it is worth: AFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive for the wild card that is lower than that is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.


There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot:
Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.

Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.

Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:

• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win

Click to expand...

This *seems* unlikely based on numbers, but in the first two scenarios, three of those teams that have to win would be division winners.

So, I think it is not *that* unlikely, but I am certainly hope the Jets do not make it. Yes, I'd like to knock them out ourselves, but the level of suckage if the Pats lose is too great.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

onegameatatime said:

This *seems* unlikely based on numbers, but in the first two scenarios, three of those teams that have to win would be division winners.

So, I think it is not *that* unlikely, but I am certainly hope the Jets do not make it. Yes, I'd like to knock them out ourselves, but the level of suckage if the Pats lose is too great.

Click to expand...

The big problem, though, is that one of those teams (Texans) is locked into the third seed; nothing that happens tomorrow can change that fact. So what's the point of going all out to win?

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Hehe I love seeing the Jets lose

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Seanzayyy said:

To piggy back off of that, out of the 128 possible playoff scenarios in the seven AFC playoff implication games, the Jets only make the playoffs 12 times. So the Jests are only included in the playoff scenario as the 6th seed for a whopping 9.375% of the time.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg

Click to expand...

Which is exactly the % they have in the games that do matter to them (3 shots out of 32). Why that other site has them at 13% confuses me unless the other 3.625% is simply accounting for the huge horseshoe jammed up Rex's ass sideways.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

The Scrizz said:

Which is exactly the % they have in the games that do matter to them (3 shots out of 32). Why that other site has them at 13% confuses me unless the other 3.625% is simply accounting for the huge horseshoe jammed up Rex's ass sideways.

Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm not sure where they got the 13% either. And that poor poor horseshoe.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Yes, watching the Texans lie down, allow Tenn to limp thru the backdoor into the playoffs, and simulateously kill the Jets hopes would be poetic justice indeed.

It's just too bad we can't get to see it happen two weeks in a row.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

ctpatsfan77 said:

The big problem, though, is that one of those teams (Texans) is locked into the third seed; nothing that happens tomorrow can change that fact. So what's the point of going all out to win?

Click to expand...

This one will be interesting to follow, as your point is well taken in regards to the Texans not having much to play for.

It should also be noted though, that they would like to put a stop to that horrid play of the past month, and I'm sure they'd like to try and get off of their losing streak and head into the playoffs with at least some better vibes.

Adding the 'supposed' return of A.Johnson after all of these wks to the HOU offense makes it even weirder to try and predict, but that aspect alone does tell me that they plan on coming to play for at least a portion of the game.

It certainly could go either way, and I wouldn't be surprised at either scenario. It's also more than possible that the Titans may just come out and play a lot stronger than the Texans anyway, even if HOU is "trying."

On another note--it does seem that the NFL's plan of making these week 17 games more meaningful has worked on some level, as we aren't seeing as much laying down as in years past...maybe it's just me though?

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

supafly said:

This one will be interesting to follow, as your point is well taken in regards to the Texans not having much to play for.

It should also be noted though, that they would like to put a stop to that horrid play of the past month, and I'm sure they'd like to try and get off of their losing streak and head into the playoffs with at least some better vibes.

Click to expand...

I think that the Texans understand they won't be going very far in the post-season with their 3rd QB unless he gets a LOT more experience, so they'll likely be doing their level best to get him reps with the plays he feels most comfortable with, and also keep him upright and unhurt.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

While seeing the Jets lose in the playoffs would put a big grrin on my face. I think the internal turmoil the organization will go through if they Jest don't make the playoffs would be much more fun. Though I don't think we'd get to see much of it, but the NY media might smell blood in the water and turn Rex & gang into chum .

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

As an addndum. Let's root for Jason Taylor to go out big today. :rocker:

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

If the Jets make the playoffs, their mechanic should remove all the forward gears in the team bus.

What a nightmare.

Re: OT: The Jets attempt for the ultimate back into the playoffs just got a lot easie

Very interesting posts, folks!

Ron Sellers said:

For what it is worth: AFC Playoff Picture

Playoff Status (which has been pretty good over the last few years in my opinion) has the Jets at a 13% chance of making the playoffs. The only AFC team still alive for the wild card that is lower than that is Tennessee at 9%; the Raiders are at 19% and the Bengals are 59%.

There are five games that can and will affect the final AFC wild card spot:
Cincy-Baltimore, Oakland-SD, KC-Denver, Jets-Dolphins and Tennessee-Houston.

Five games, that is 32 possible outcomes.

Of those 32 possible combinations, there are only three in which the Jets make the playoffs:

• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Raiders, KC win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos win
• Jets, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, KC win

Click to expand...

Here's an expansion of your excellent work:

• NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, OAK over SD, KC over DEN
• NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, SD over OAK, DEN over KC
• NYJ over MIA, BAL over CIN, HOU over TEN, SD over OAK, KC over DEN

supafly said:

Nice job on the analysis.

One can easily see that the common variables here are the results of the first 3 games, in the aspects of Jets, Ravens, and Texans wins.

It should be noted that the pointspread of ALL 3 of those games is less than 3 points.

That factor alone, (and maybe it means more to me from a wagering standpoint) should prove that the Jets chances are not as good as some would believe. When you consider that ALL 3 of those games need to go a certain direction, and they are ALL close matchups, that should make us who don't want the NYJ in the playoffs feel a bit better.

Then again, maybe it doesn't mean as much to the average fan.

Click to expand...

Probably not. As for feeling better, well, I don't know the odds, but in my head, NYJ should beat MIA, BAL should beat CIN, HOU should beat TEN (if HOU doesn't lie down), and SD should beat OAK, and DEN and KC probably won't tie. Now, of course what 'should' happen doesn't ever always happen, and it has to happen five times in a row.

Seanzayyy said:

To piggy back off of that, out of the 128 possible playoff scenarios in the seven AFC playoff implication games, the Jets only make the playoffs 12 times. So the Jests are only included in the playoff scenario as the 6th seed for a whopping 9.375% of the time.

http://static.nfl.com/static/content/catch_all/nfl_image/AFC_playoff_seeding_2011.jpg

Click to expand...

I don't know how playoffstatus.com does it stuff other than them saying "All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths". How does one compute "relative team strength"? I suppose that's the "special sauce" they are adding that raises the Jets odds up from the number just based on number of possible outcomes.

ctpatsfan77 said:

The big problem, though, is that one of those teams (Texans) is locked into the third seed; nothing that happens tomorrow can change that fact. So what's the point of going all out to win?

Click to expand...

Agree, that's a critical point in a critical situation. HOU certainly has no reason to want to help or hurt NYJ as far as I can tell.

As for playoff incentives:
- NYJ needs a win to get in and help whereas MIA is out => NYJ has strong incentive
- BAL gets a first round bye with a win whereas CIN gets in with a win => both BAL and CIN have strong incentive, but CIN has more
- HOU is locked in whereas TEN needs to win and needs help to get in => TEN has strong incentive
- OAK needs a win and help to get in whereas SD is out => OAK has strong incentive
- DEN wins and they are in whereas KC is out => DEN has strong incentive

If you go by pure incentive, a lot of the teams that NYJ need to lose like CIN and TEN have strong incentives to win.

The Scrizz said:

Which is exactly the % they have in the games that do matter to them (3 shots out of 32). Why that other site has them at 13% confuses me unless the other 3.625% is simply accounting for the huge horseshoe jammed up Rex's ass sideways.

Click to expand...

I'm no expert on geometry, but is there any other way than sideways? Even if you start out trying to do it lengthwise, it ends up being sideways, unless Rexy has a titanium bunghole.

RelocatedPatFan said:

As an addndum. Let's root for Jason Taylor to go out big today. :rocker:

Click to expand...

Do you have a spare horseshoe?