Ok...... here we go. Let's take a shot with a young kid who has a 17% chance of playing at a recognized higher level in the NFL by league average(this Cousin is your odds)? If you Draft 10 guys, 1.7 will play to a higher level other than a jag, be lost by extended injury that stalls a career, or just were over-valued by those who do such like Gholston, Russell,and some of our picks like Chad Jackson, Lawrence Maroney who were all top 60 type selections. We have nine selections this year. On league average, 2 of those will play at a high level. More will make the Team but certainly replaceable the following season. It takes three years by league average to cultivate those players.
Let's take the 2007 NFL Draft class. Let's use the top 100. 17 are top yield players, one or two more are iffy border line. Some have promising careers that are questionable by injury like Sidney Rice (by the way a FA) or Ross or Posluszny, some are not with their original Teams already and most are serviceable (is that what you want the Pats to Draft? .........or a proven NFL player that can be tweaked to perform even better like a Vrable, Harrison or a Moss and maybe this year Woody ?), roster fillers or just O.K. players........ and many are out of the league after only three years, so....just .....17%!
1 1 Oakland Raiders JaMarcus Russell QB LSU SEC
1 2 Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson† WR Georgia Tech ACC
1 3 Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas† OT Wisconsin Big Ten
1 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gaines Adams DE Clemson ACC
1 5 Arizona Cardinals Brown, Levi Brown OT Penn State Big Ten
1 6 Washington Redskins LaRon Landry S LSU SEC
1 7 Minnesota Vikings Peterson, Adrian Peterson† RB Oklahoma Big 12
1 8 Atlanta Falcons Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas SEC from Houston [9]
1 9 Miami Dolphins Ted Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State Big Ten
1 10 Houston Texans Amobi Okoye DT Louisville Big East from Atlanta [9]
1 11 San Francisco 49ers Patrick Willis† LB Ole Miss SEC
1 12 Buffalo Bills Marshawn Lynch† RB California Pac-10
1 13 St. Louis Rams Adam Carriker DT Nebraska Big 12
1 14 New York Jets Darrelle Revis† CB Pittsburgh Big East from Carolina [10]
1 15 Pittsburgh Steelers LawrenceTimmons LB Florida State ACC
1 16 Green Bay Packers Justin Harrell DT Tennessee SEC
1 17 Denver Bronco Jarvis Moss DE Florida SEC from Jacksonville [11]
1 18 Cincinnati Bengals Leon Hall CB Michigan Big Ten
1 19 Tennessee Titans Michael Griffin† S Texas Big 12
1 20 New York Giants Aaron Ross CB Texas Big 12
1 21 Jacksonville Jaguars Reggie Nelson S Florida SEC from Denver [11]
1 22 Cleveland Browns Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame Ind. from Dallas [12]
1 23 Kansas City Chiefs Dwayne Bowe† WR LSU SEC
1 24 New England Patriots Brandon Meriweather† S Miami (FL) ACC from Seattle [13]
1 25 Carolina Panthers Jon Beason† LB Miami (FL) ACC from New York Jets [10]
1 26 Dallas Cowboys Anthony Spencer DE Purdue Big Ten from Philadelphia [14]
1 27 New Orleans Saints Robert Meachem WR Tennessee SEC
1 28 San Francisco 49ers Joe Staley OT Central Michigan MAC from New England [15]
1 29 Baltimore Ravens Ben Grubbs G Auburn SEC
1 30 San Diego Chargers Craig "Buster" Davis WR LSU SEC
1 31 Chicago Bears Greg Olsen TE Miami (FL) ACC
1 32 Indianapolis Colts Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State Big Ten
2 33 Arizona Cardinals Alan Branch DT Michigan Big Ten from Oakland [16]
2 34 Buffalo Bills Paul Posluszny LB Penn State Big Ten from Detroit [17]
2 35 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Arron Sears G Tennessee SEC
2 36 Philadelphia Eagles Kevin Kolb QB Houston C-USA from Cleveland via Dallas [12][14]
2 37 San Diego Chargers Eric Weddle S Utah MWC from Washington via Chicago and New York Jets [18]
2 38 Oakland Raiders Zach Miller† TE Arizona State Pac-10 from Arizona [16]
2 39 Atlanta Falcons Justin Blalock G Texas Big 12 from Houston [9]
2 40 Miami Dolphins John Beck QB BYU MWC
2 41 Atlanta Falcons Chris Houston CB Arkansas SEC from Minnesota [19]
2 42 Indianapolis Colts Tony Ugoh OT Arkansas SEC from San Francisco [20]
2 43 Detroit Lions Drew Stanton QB Michigan State Big Ten from Buffalo [17]
2 44 Minnesota Vikings Sidney Rice† WR South Carolina SEC from Atlanta [19]
2 45 Carolina Panthers Dwayne Jarrett WR USC Pac-10
2 46 Pittsburgh Steelers LaMarr Woodley† DE Michigan Big Ten
2 47 New York Jets David Harris LB Michigan Big Ten from Green Bay [21]
2 48 Jacksonville Jaguars Justin Durant LB Hampton MEAC
2 49 Cincinnati Bengals Kenny Irons RB Auburn SEC
2 50 Tennessee Titans Chris Henry RB Arizona Pac-10
2 51 New York Giants Steve Smith† WR USC Pac-10
2 52 St. Louis Rams Brian Leonard FB Rutgers Big East
2 53 Cleveland Browns Eric Wright CB UNLV MWC from Dallas [22]
2 54 Kansas City Chiefs Turk McBride DE Tennessee SEC
2 55 Seattle Seahawks Josh Wilson CB Maryland ACC
2 56 Denver Broncos Tim Crowder DE Texas Big 12
2 57 Philadelphia Eagles Victor Abiamiri DE Notre Dame Ind.
2 58 Detroit Lions Ikaika Alama-Francis DE Hawaiʻi WAC from New Orleans [23]
2 59 Carolina Panthers Ryan Kalil† C USC Pac-10 from New York Jets [10]
2 60 Miami Dolphins Samson Satele C Hawaiʻi WAC from New England [24]
2 61 Detroit Lions Gerald Alexander S Boise State WAC from Baltimore [25]
2 62 Chicago Bears Dan Bazuin DE Central Michigan MAC from San Diego [26]
2 63 Green Bay Packers Brandon Jackson RB Nebraska Big 12 from Chicago via New York Jets [21][27]
2 64 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sabby Piscitelli S Oregon State Pac-10 from Indianapolis [28]
3 65 Oakland Raiders Quentin Moses DE Georgia SEC
3 66 New Orleans Saints Usama Young CB Kent State MAC from Detroit [23]
3 67 Dallas Cowboys James Marten OT Boston College ACC from Cleveland [22]
3 68 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Quincy Black LB New Mexico MWC
3 69 Arizona Cardinals Buster Davis LB Florida State ACC
3 70 Denver Broncos Ryan Harris OT Notre Dame Ind. from Washington [29]
3 71 Miami Dolphins Lorenzo Booker RB Florida State ACC
3 72 Minnesota Vikings Marcus McCauley CB Fresno State WAC
3 73 Houston Texans Jacoby Jones WR Lane SIAC
3 74 Baltimore Ravens Yamon Figurs WR Kansas State Big 12 from Buffalo via Detroit [17][25]
3 75 Atlanta Falcons Laurent Robinson WR Illinois State MVFC
3 76 San Francisco 49ers Jason Hill WR Washington State Pac-10
3 77 Pittsburgh Steelers Matt Spaeth TE Minnesota Big Ten
3 78 Green Bay Packers James Jones WR San Jose State WAC
3 79 Jacksonville Jaguars Mike Sims-Walker WR Central Florida C-USA
3 80 Tennessee Titans Paul Williams WR Fresno State WAC
3 80.5– Cincinnati Bengals selection forfeited because of use of 3rd round selection in 2006 Supplemental Draft[2]
3 81 New York Giants Jay Alford DT Penn State Big Ten
3 82 Kansas City Chiefs DeMarcus "Tank" Tyler DT NC State ACC from St. Louis [30]
3 83 Carolina Panthers Charles Johnson DE Georgia SEC
3 84 St. Louis Rams Jonathan Wade CB Tennessee SEC from Kansas City [30]
3 85 Seattle Seahawks Brandon Mebane DT California Pac-10
3 86 Baltimore Ravens Marshal Yanda OT Iowa Big Ten from Denver via Jacksonville [11][31]
3 87 Philadelphia Eagles Stewart Bradley LB Nebraska Big 12 from Dallas [14]
3 88 New Orleans Saints Andy Alleman G Akron MAC
3 89 Green Bay Packers Aaron Rouse S Virginia Tech ACC from New York Jets [21]
3 90 Philadelphia Eagles Tony Hunt RB Penn State Big Ten
3 91 Oakland Raiders Mario Henderson OT Florida State ACC from New England [32]
3 92 Buffalo Bills Trent Edwards QB Stanford Pac-10 from Baltimore [33]
3 93 Chicago Bears Garrett Wolfe RB Northern Illinois MAC from San Diego [26]
3 94 Chicago Bears Michael Okwo LB Stanford Pac-10
3 95 Indianapolis Colts Dante Hughes CB California Pac-10
3 * 96 San Diego Chargers Anthony Waters LB Clemson ACC
3 * 97 San Francisco 49ers Ray McDonald DE Florida SEC
3 * 98 Indianapolis Colts Quinn Pit**** DT Ohio State Big Ten
3 * 99 Oakland Raiders Johnnie Lee Higgins WR UTEP C-USA
4 100 Oakland Raiders Michael Bush RB Louisville Big East
Our Draft was 58% successful of last years class according to roster which was over triple average. Some are still border line like Deadrick, Price and even Cunningham as to where the go into the next level or just become Jags to bring that number back to earth.
FA's Wimbley or Manny Lawson are two who might be more ready to jump to that next level more readily than any Draft pick. A mix of FA and picks are preferable. It's a bigger crap shoot to Draft. There have been Pats Drafts in the last ten years where you Cousin or I would have been much more correct and opportune in our picks than the Pats F.O. .....who are EXPERTS! For every Thomas (who had at least one decent year), there is a Vrable, Dillon or Harrison. For every Brady there is an O'Connell (third rounder?).
TB is another year older. This is more of a win now season or two, rather than three or four years from now.
DW Toys
