Polian: Draft needs updating

[PatsFanSince74]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Polian irks us all and seems like a pretty crappy human being, but he obviously knows how to manage a team brilliantly.

i agree on the narrow point, but, in this case, he is also protecting the Colts' turf by arguing that what is already a highly regulated market for talent should be subject to further constraints. the more caps, limits, whatever are placed on salaries, the more likely it will be that small market teams like Indiannapolis can continue to get rich.

i know that folks out here like to wax poetic over the benefits of parity, but ultimately any system that constrains the free movement of goods (in this case, talent) for money will give rise to more and more anomolies like the land grab by top draft picks for maximum dollars, in defiance of common sense. in this case, the top (perceived!) talent tries to get as much guaranteed money as possible at the beginning of their careers because they know they are entering a highly regulated system wherein this might be their best opportunity for a big payday, especially if they turn out to be only "good," rather than "franchise" or "great" players, as is the case with the vast majority. that is rational behavior on the seller's part.

if the system were less regulated, you woudn't see these ridiculous pay days before a down has been played. players would know that the league would be able to assess their talent over a couple of years and then give them the money they deserve, without having to plan for a cap four and five years in advance. you would see all but franchise quality players willing to accept two year contracts (instead of five year deals) at the outset at less money than today because they would know that a free market would reassess their value rationally in 24 months and that there would be plenty of teams that are able to pay them what they are worth at that time without cap constraints. conversely, this would limit the damage done by unproven, marginal players who manage to get picked in the first round.

 

[LiveShot]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Polian is right on with his statement. I believe that Jamarcus Russell will be the ultimate flop for the money de Raayders spent on him. Rookies should be slotted.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

So let me get this straight....Polian just got around to reading the Massey and Thaler report that's been around for nearly a decade, and if not, did he just get around to reading the abbreviated, summary article called the "Loser's Curse" that appeared in the Atlantic Monthly a year and a half ago?

 

[xmarkd400x]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

I'd be curious to see a comparison of the top 5 NFL picks and the proven NFL starters whose salaries match.

 

[nittanylions52]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

I agree with him.

And gee whiz, some of you are the most paranoid people I've ever seen. I'm sure Polian obsesses day and night what he could say to affect the Patriots. Get real.

Everyone knows this past offseason was one of the ones where people really started to say that there should be some sort of cap on rookie salaries. But when Polian mentions it, he's got an agenda to try and prevent the Patriots from trading down!

Keep going, this is amusing. I still don't know who would want to trade up with the Pats after last year's fiasco with the 49ers.

 

[pheenix11]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

I hadn't thought that Wild Bill had an angle. Even when he is telling the truth he is screwing us!

 

[jmt57]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Regardless of Polian's agenda, he does have a very valid point. With the pay the top picks get, one could make the argument that a bad team is better off with a lower pick, and then having that extra money available for free agents. Over looked in this is the fact that there are always a few rookies that hold out so long that the team gets nothing at all out of them in the first year, making the rebuilding process last even longer.

I agree with some of the others that an NBA-style slotting would be an improvement. To take it a step further, how about taking that money that would then be saved in lower rookie contracts and putting it in to a fund to help out disabled former NFL players? If either the owners or the player's association suggested this, the other side would almost have to accept the proposal in order to avoid being crucified by the media as selfish greedy jerks.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Finally Bill Polian is doing something right. The draft needs to be changed, like right now. This will alow teams to actually feel good about having a top pick like the NBA.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

I agree with him.

And gee whiz, some of you are the most paranoid people I've ever seen. I'm sure Polian obsesses day and night what he could say to affect the Patriots. Get real.

Everyone knows this past offseason was one of the ones where people really started to say that there should be some sort of cap on rookie salaries. But when Polian mentions it, he's got an agenda to try and prevent the Patriots from trading down!

Keep going, this is amusing. I still don't know who would want to trade up with the Pats after last year's fiasco with the 49ers.

Your kidding, right? Where you been the last few years?

 

[RayClay]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Get out...

If he's that worried about what agents are doing to ruin the draft, why not just hit speed dial and ask his man Tom Condon WTF he's doing that??? Every time Polian extends or re-signs a significant player in his scheme, he elevates the league wide salary landscape exponentially. He doesn't just make his best players the highest paid at their position, he does it by tens of millions and reeks havoc with every other poor teams established salary structure.

When he signed Manning he set a new benchmark for bonus money...by $20M!!!! When he signed Freeney he upped the ante for DL by $3M per and over $10M in guaranteed money.

I'm sure on some level Bill cares about the league. But when push comes to shove (no pun intended...) he cares about the Colts. If they somehow acquired a top ten pick this season, he would have given a much different, more subdued spin. But since they have no pick in the top 60 let alone top ten, he is all too willing to highlight the potential foibles of trading up.

My point is, it looks (to me) that a trade down would be beneficial for the Pats. It's very hard to do because you need a partner with the right picks/players and the will to move up.

Would I be surprised if Polian decided to sow the seeds of doubt about trading up? Not at all.

Bill Polian
"Any time you lose to a team like we've lost to the Patriots, you certainly look at it like you have to rectify some things, ..."

 

[RayClay]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Regardless of Polian's agenda, he does have a very valid point. With the pay the top picks get, one could make the argument that a bad team is better off with a lower pick, and then having that extra money available for free agents. Over looked in this is the fact that there are always a few rookies that hold out so long that the team gets nothing at all out of them in the first year, making the rebuilding process last even longer.

I agree with some of the others that an NBA-style slotting would be an improvement. To take it a step further, how about taking that money that would then be saved in lower rookie contracts and putting it in to a fund to help out disabled former NFL players? If either the owners or the player's association suggested this, the other side would almost have to accept the proposal in order to avoid being crucified by the media as selfish greedy jerks.

Just to get out, I agree with his point, but we're always on his agenda.

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

i agree on the narrow point, but, in this case, he is also protecting the Colts' turf by arguing that what is already a highly regulated market for talent should be subject to further constraints. the more caps, limits, whatever are placed on salaries, the more likely it will be that small market teams like Indiannapolis can continue to get rich.

i know that folks out here like to wax poetic over the benefits of parity, but ultimately any system that constrains the free movement of goods (in this case, talent) for money will give rise to more and more anomolies like the land grab by top draft picks for maximum dollars, in defiance of common sense. in this case, the top (perceived!) talent tries to get as much guaranteed money as possible at the beginning of their careers because they know they are entering a highly regulated system wherein this might be their best opportunity for a big payday, especially if they turn out to be only "good," rather than "franchise" or "great" players, as is the case with the vast majority. that is rational behavior on the seller's part.

if the system were less regulated, you woudn't see these ridiculous pay days before a down has been played. players would know that the league would be able to assess their talent over a couple of years and then give them the money they deserve, without having to plan for a cap four and five years in advance. you would see all but franchise quality players willing to accept two year contracts (instead of five year deals) at the outset at less money than today because they would know that a free market would reassess their value rationally in 24 months and that there would be plenty of teams that are able to pay them what they are worth at that time without cap constraints. conversely, this would limit the damage done by unproven, marginal players who manage to get picked in the first round.

There is one huge hitch in your theory. Teams don't want to offer just 2 year deals because they want continuity, hence the longer contracts. Its a given that you can't truly assess a draft until its 3 years old.

Players want longer contracts as well because then they have some sense of financial security. Particularly with the guaranteed money.

One of the things you over-look is that the NFL is the best sports league currently. Its better than MLB, NHL or the NBA. It has its flaws, but its still the best out there. The primary reason is the salary cap and the teams forced to share revenue.

I agree that the salaries for rookies is out of whack. I hate seeing the graduated rookie pool the way it is now. It should be graduated by the number of picks you have, NOT where your picks fall in the draft. By setting the amount based on the number of picks, you limit how much teams can spend in general on the picks.

One of the problems that I see is that some these kids getting drafted in the 1st round think that its an automatic payday that allows them to take care of their families, both past and present, without having taken a step on the field. They think that they are ENTITLED to all that money. And the AGENTS believe that as well. The NFL has to go back to more incentive laden contracts for rookies. Not all this guaranteed crap.

That is going to be how the league gets away from shelling out 30 million guaranteed to a schmoe like JaMarcus Russell, who hasn't done a damn thing in the league.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Polian's rationalizing if he doesn't think there's tremendous value in the first round.

I'd agree with him about picks 1-3 not being worth the risk reward for the price you pay - but 5-15 becomes much cost-effective blend of production and price.

In fact if there's a player we want I wouldn't rule out the Pats moving up ahead of the Jets to #5.

I think the reason we've not drafted an LB in the first round in the past is because the guys who fit our system perfectly are gone after the top 10 - but this year might well be different.

Not that great players aren't found in the later rounds but the chances that a player doesn't pan out goes up as well.

 

[PonyExpress]

I have to Laugh at Polian, solving the world's problems. Figures it comes the year he has no 1st rdr, having traded it away for a sub-par left tackle who blew his team's playoff game.

As long as he's commenting on the draft, I'd like someone to ask him what part he played in advising the commish to take away the Pats 1st rd pick. Hopefully he chokes on his morning cabbage.

 

[questionman]

He's not always out to get the Patriots.

 

[workhorse]

Get out...

If he's that worried about what agents are doing to ruin the draft, why not just hit speed dial and ask his man Tom Condon WTF he's doing that??? Every time Polian extends or re-signs a significant player in his scheme, he elevates the league wide salary landscape exponentially. He doesn't just make his best players the highest paid at their position, he does it by tens of millions and reeks havoc with every other poor teams established salary structure.

When he signed Manning he set a new benchmark for bonus money...by $20M!!!! When he signed Freeney he upped the ante for DL by $3M per and over $10M in guaranteed money.

I'm sure on some level Bill cares about the league. But when push comes to shove (no pun intended...) he cares about the Colts. If they somehow acquired a top ten pick this season, he would have given a much different, more subdued spin. But since they have no pick in the top 60 let alone top ten, he is all too willing to highlight the potential foibles of trading up.

He didn't say not to pay players. His beef is with unproven rookies.

Wasn't he the guy who picked Manning at... #1????

He could have just traded the pick for a couple of second rounders...

Notice the difference in the top pick's contract since Manning to Russell.

I think you are probably right about Polian doing this only for the Colt's benefit....

Think about it.... Peyton retires in around 5 years or so, after that the Colts will blow... so by then Polian through his whining will get his way and higher draft picks will be paid less money and the Colts will be able to draft a high player and pay him a lot less in % of cap.

Only for the Colts benefit? Does he also plan to have at least 5 of the top 10 picks in all the up coming drafts? It's for every team's benefit.

I have to Laugh at Polian, solving the world's problems. Figures it comes the year he has no 1st rdr, having traded it away for a sub-par left tackle who blew his team's playoff game.

As long as he's commenting on the draft, I'd like someone to ask him what part he played in advising the commish to take away the Pats 1st rd pick. Hopefully he chokes on his morning cabbage.

The fact that the Colts don't have a first round pick is all the more reason that people should really listen. It's not as though he is bringing this up just to try to take advantage of it.

BTW, why do you consider Ugoh to be subpar? Dude was a rookie protecting Peyton's blind side and did a pretty good job of it. And by all accounts ranks higher than any tackle that would be around for the Colts if they hadn't traded this year's pick. Not to mention the fact that the Colts were able to use the money that would have been used on a first round pick to help resign Sanders and Clark.

 

[spacecrime]

He didn't say not to pay players. His beef is with unproven rookies.

I think his beef is the high salaries that top ten picks get. Valid concern.

Notice the difference in the top pick's contract since Manning to Russell.

??? Both were unprecedently high at the time of signing, Manning's current contract even more so. I doubt you even know yourself or you would have told us the difference. (WHy not look it up and tell us now?)

The fact that the Colts don't have a first round pick is all the more reason that people should really listen. It's not as though he is bringing this up just to try to take advantage of it.

While I agree that it is unusual for Polian to do anything that does not favor his team, the problem is not related to Polian's gnereal skullduggery or occaisional lack thereof. People should listen because it is a genuine problem. Period.

BTW, why do you consider Ugoh to be subpar?

This is what you said about Jason David a couple years ago, when he was a Colt.

 

[workhorse]

I think his beef is the high salaries that top ten picks get. Valid concern.


??? Both were unprecedently high at the time of signing, Manning's current contract even more so. I doubt you even know yourself or you would have told us the difference. (WHy not look it up and tell us now?)


While I agree that it is unusual for Polian to do anything that does not favor his team, the problem is not related to Polian's gnereal skullduggery or occaisional lack thereof. People should listen because it is a genuine problem. Period.

This is what you said about Jason David a couple years ago, when he was a Colt.

Manning six years, $42.7 million. Russell six years, $61 million (with $3 million more in playing time bounses.)

Please show me what you are talking about with David. I have never said David was anything more than adequet. I was happy to see him sign with the Saints. He was too short and knew every reciever's name because he could read it on their jersey as he chased behind them.

 

[arrellbee]

Polian's rationalizing if he doesn't think there's tremendous value in the first round.

I'd agree with him about picks 1-3 not being worth the risk reward for the price you pay - but 5-15 becomes much cost-effective blend of production and price.

In fact if there's a player we want I wouldn't rule out the Pats moving up ahead of the Jets to #5.

I think the reason we've not drafted an LB in the first round in the past is because the guys who fit our system perfectly are gone after the top 10 - but this year might well be different.

Not that great players aren't found in the later rounds but the chances that a player doesn't pan out goes up as well.

There have been quite a few analyses that show that you are lucky if even 50% of the first round draft picks are even starters, much less top level players. You can pick just about any year over 4 years or more ago and go down the list and see for yourself. There are quite a few first rounders that are not even in the league after 5 or 6 years.

It would seem that one of the paramount criteria of the Patriots when drafting first round players is to have as high as possible a likelikhood that the player will at least be a solid starter for a number of years. It seems like they routinely pass over players that everyone else is so high on but which the Patriots apparently feel has a significant risk that offsets the upside potiential. In a nutshell, they try to pick sure things rather than possibilities for higher upside.

 

[jbb9s]

Re: Colts president Polian says NFL draft needs updating

Wasn't he the guy who picked Manning at... #1????

He could have just traded the pick for a couple of second rounders...

It would have been awesome if the Colts picked Leaf.