So, here are some thoughts, but they're dependent on media reports. After all, all of this speculation on the team is. Very little gets actually proven, and there's no incentive against muddying the waters. But let's allow a the widely accepted plot point below from the "People say" department, with the caveat that people say things that are wrong sometimes. We don't really know when that's happening.
- people say that BB was actually surprised that the negotiations did not work out. Well, this would be interesting, because it would just be BB making the wrong call, rather than making a year early/year late call specifically.
If we allow that BB was surprised that negotiations with Brady would tank this time, then this is also Tom saying, you know what Bill? I don't need you. I don't need the never-solved "Who's the GOAT" riddle. Maybe Brady, at 43, is now like "I want the full credit for what was always my thing, I don't want to carry this old guy anymore. Maybe he was actually pissy about staying.
- people also say that 25M would have kept him in NE. Ehhhh I dunno. I'll believe that when I see his name signed on a contract never countersigned by the Pats (after validation of same, of course.)
But the main problem with the "Belichick sure is stupid" view of this ("He thought Tommy was done ha!") is that...
- Tom in Tampa is not equal to Tom in New England. The two teams provided different stables of weapons. I think it's fair, without too much recourse to "people say," to therefore conclude that this isn't a simple binomial equation.
It's not "a year early v a year late" without regard to where. In NE, he doesn't have the 2020-21 he had in Tampa.
So the assertion was never "Nobody can win with him, he's 43." It's more "We can't win with him, given who else is here."
Cue "Bill the GM" argument.