I do support AJ in this discussion (I was kidding about the popcorn though) and I only speak for myself.
We have no clue why Belichick makes the moves he makes. He's always trying to improve the team and should be. The Pats are giving up less points than every team but one in the entire NYJFL, but it's still his job to make it better.
As I mentioned a hundred or so posts ago
, I think it's the job of every single player on the roster to help keep the other team from scoring. That alone should tell you that I value more than
just scoring points. But the simple fact is that points scored is how we determine winners, and being at the top of a 32 team league does not make you average, let alone below average as someone here called them.
Edit: It's true that right now they're in the easiest part of their schedule and are way down the SOS list, but they started the season and will end the season with a tougher schedule.
Belichick's defenses usually do better by the end of the year than the beginning, so that's a positive for this year. The problem I'm seeing this year, and others have pointed as well, is that it's not a typical year; usually Belichick adds complexity to the defense during the course of the season. But this year, he did many roster changes, there's no position who is really setup and we're in December : on the DLine, Flowers is now a starter and Sheard a backup, for the linebackers, other than Hightower who is set, the other pieces are moving in and out, and in the secondary the cornerbacks (other than Butler) are not set either. While this would be the time to add layers to the gameplans, Belichick and Patricia might not be at that point yet and they might never get to the point where they can add complexity, because the players have not settle into their role.
I'm not seeing this as a positive. Belichick does not give out much information about the team, but regarding player personnel, as he says, it is what it is. So if we are witnessing something this unusual this far into the season, there's something to it.
The defense has not done badly this year. Some have argued differently, but it has never been my point. What I've attacked is fans that are defending the defense based on the average PPG statistics. For so many reasons, this is not a statistics that really represents the value of this defense ...and here again, if Belichick would listen to posters like AJ, since we are 3rd in the league, why would Belichick thinks it is a good idea to move out players who have contributed to such a positive outcome ? The average PPG is not based only on the defense results, but in the Pats case, outstanding special team play and offense. Also, if we are to compare our PPG to other teams, shouldn't we normalize the results ? Because teams can only play who's on their schedule, and no schedule is created equal. Averaging 17 points on defense against offenses that usually don't score much more than that, or averaging 17 points on defense against great offenses, is not the same. When taking a sample of 12 games for a given team and comparing it to another sample of 12 games for another team, we are not comparing apples to apples. And I've shown that there isn't much correlation between D PPG and success in the playoffs (we are fortunate enough to have a team that can challenge for the Super Bowl every year, so yes, when assessing stats I believe we should look past the regular season).
For all these reasons, I rejected the D PPG argument. And looking at the roster moves Belichick has done so far, I believe he doesn't trust this number either.
Is this defense good enough to win a Super Bowl ? I believe it is, because football is a team sport and this defense can do a decent enough supporting act for the offense and special teams. But I believe it's the weak link of this team, and I wonder if it can do enough to overcome a bad game by the offense in January.
I sure hope things will gel on defense before the season is over. But right now, looking at efficiency stats, I don't want the other team to have the ball with 2 minutes and a chance to win the game. Yes, in situations like these we can stop the mighty 3 and 8 Jets. But can we stop a playoff team ?