Pats D still Number 2 in AFC points against

[mosslost]

Statistics can be useful, and sometimes very revealing. But, they also don't tell the whole story. From an offensive standpoint, for example, both Mannings, Elway, Rivers etc. piling up wins simply does not put any of them in the same class as Plunkett, Bradshaw, Montana, Unitas, Brady, Tittle, Staubach

WHAT?? You put Plunkett over Elway? Are you nuts?

 

[mosslost]

I can't believe you put Tittle in with that group of QBs.

Also Plunkett belongs nowhere near this discussion.

 

[Ring 6]

No that's not the assumption that is being made. The assumption is that if we are making an evaluation of the defense based on the average PPG alone, facing QB1 or QB2 as an impact. Facing mediocre offenses, as opposed to top-of-the-league offenses, has an impact too.

you can only play who is on your schedule. Results are not adjusted for strength of opponent

This is just another way to prove that the average PPG is a misleading stat.

Every stat is misleading butvpiigts allowed is a result that determines winning or losing.

Belichick is not happy with his defense. That's clear to everybody who has followed the Pats over the years; trading Collins in the middle of the year, benching Sheard 2 weeks ago, still trying to find the number 2 CB, are not moves that show he is happy with the defense so far.

Thus is a weak argument you keep trying to make. BB is never happy with anything and keeps trying to improve. Trading Collins is actually an indication he is happy with what he has without him. Benching sheard for not doing his job is not a condemnation of the unit by any means. Rotating players in competitive position groups is also a BB trademark.

Andy and some other posters are trying to prove Belichick is wrong. That's not an argument these posters can win.

Actually just the opposite. My argument proves BB is right. Yours says he traded Collins despite thinking the d sucked and he will reduce the talent level any way.

Plus BB is on record saying exactly what I am saying the only stat that matters is the score.

Your appeal to authority unfortunately for you is to an authority who has shown he entirely and completely disagrees with your opinion.

So as you yourself said since you are posting that BB is wrong this is an argument you cannot win.

 

[1960Pats]

While I tend to think the defense has done a solid job, particularly given the many rules in the modern game that favor offenses, I do recognize that there's room for improvement. That said, polite discussion would be nice. I'm frankly quite tired of the ad hominem attacks. We're all on the same side here, folks.

Ultimately, this team can win a championship. Defense is only 1/3 of the equation, so regardless of whether they're good or merely competent, the overall team is still the best in the league. It's good to be a Patriots fan.

Thanks for fitting that much clarity into so few words.

The only thing I might change is the idea that it's good to be a Pats fan. It's not. It's great.

 

[RDS11]

I do support AJ in this discussion (I was kidding about the popcorn though) and I only speak for myself.

We have no clue why Belichick makes the moves he makes. He's always trying to improve the team and should be. The Pats are giving up less points than every team but one in the entire NYJFL, but it's still his job to make it better.

As I mentioned a hundred or so posts ago , I think it's the job of every single player on the roster to help keep the other team from scoring. That alone should tell you that I value more than just scoring points. But the simple fact is that points scored is how we determine winners, and being at the top of a 32 team league does not make you average, let alone below average as someone here called them.

Edit: It's true that right now they're in the easiest part of their schedule and are way down the SOS list, but they started the season and will end the season with a tougher schedule.

Belichick's defenses usually do better by the end of the year than the beginning, so that's a positive for this year. The problem I'm seeing this year, and others have pointed as well, is that it's not a typical year; usually Belichick adds complexity to the defense during the course of the season. But this year, he did many roster changes, there's no position who is really setup and we're in December : on the DLine, Flowers is now a starter and Sheard a backup, for the linebackers, other than Hightower who is set, the other pieces are moving in and out, and in the secondary the cornerbacks (other than Butler) are not set either. While this would be the time to add layers to the gameplans, Belichick and Patricia might not be at that point yet and they might never get to the point where they can add complexity, because the players have not settle into their role.

I'm not seeing this as a positive. Belichick does not give out much information about the team, but regarding player personnel, as he says, it is what it is. So if we are witnessing something this unusual this far into the season, there's something to it.

The defense has not done badly this year. Some have argued differently, but it has never been my point. What I've attacked is fans that are defending the defense based on the average PPG statistics. For so many reasons, this is not a statistics that really represents the value of this defense ...and here again, if Belichick would listen to posters like AJ, since we are 3rd in the league, why would Belichick thinks it is a good idea to move out players who have contributed to such a positive outcome ? The average PPG is not based only on the defense results, but in the Pats case, outstanding special team play and offense. Also, if we are to compare our PPG to other teams, shouldn't we normalize the results ? Because teams can only play who's on their schedule, and no schedule is created equal. Averaging 17 points on defense against offenses that usually don't score much more than that, or averaging 17 points on defense against great offenses, is not the same. When taking a sample of 12 games for a given team and comparing it to another sample of 12 games for another team, we are not comparing apples to apples. And I've shown that there isn't much correlation between D PPG and success in the playoffs (we are fortunate enough to have a team that can challenge for the Super Bowl every year, so yes, when assessing stats I believe we should look past the regular season).

For all these reasons, I rejected the D PPG argument. And looking at the roster moves Belichick has done so far, I believe he doesn't trust this number either.

Is this defense good enough to win a Super Bowl ? I believe it is, because football is a team sport and this defense can do a decent enough supporting act for the offense and special teams. But I believe it's the weak link of this team, and I wonder if it can do enough to overcome a bad game by the offense in January.

I sure hope things will gel on defense before the season is over. But right now, looking at efficiency stats, I don't want the other team to have the ball with 2 minutes and a chance to win the game. Yes, in situations like these we can stop the mighty 3 and 8 Jets. But can we stop a playoff team ?

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I can't believe you put Tittle in with that group of QBs.

What's wrong with Y.A.? Please don't tell me he's totally overrated because he was in NY. I was just a little tyke then, so..please what'd I miss

 

[luuked]

Bill Belichick explains why the Patriots change their defense every week

Another great article that more eloquently puts together what I have been trying to say. We are a matchup defense that morphs from week to week which comes with benefits (difficult to prepare for..) and drawbacks (jack of all trades but not master of any..). If you want a defense that plays one thing great but apart from that doesn't change much up then go and root for Denver or Seattle until BB retires because that's not his philosophy.

Apart from "games won" no stat will give you a proper grasp of the potential of this team because the stats we use (yards allowed on ground, passing yards ..) are too simplistic to model a game of football.

Against certain teams giving up 200+ yards on the ground might actually increase your chance of winning because you keep the ball out of the hands of their elite WRs and keep their O from scoring quickly. Similarly, against other teams you might have a better chance to win because you know that their QB tends to make errors so you let him throw his passes until it happens. None of the stats that most of the critics here want to use can account for game plans like that.

Does that mean everything is great or there is no room for improvement ? No, of course not. If you ask me the entire regular season is like one long beta test for your team just so as many issues as possible are fixed in the playoffs.

The problem is that the media is spoonfeeding this notion of how a defense has to look like to be considered good without any nuance and the majority of viewers (who are mostly casuals who dont even know what a dime/nickel package is) eat it up and can't deal with anything that doesn't fit that picture.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

WHAT?? You put Plunkett over Elway? Are you nuts?

How much did you get to see Jim with the Patriots and Raiders? He was always a winner; Oakland had talent but was going nowhere fast before he played.

I did also see all of Elway's career; he was able to make as many plays with his feet as he did with his arm. Nothing personal; no, I would never start him or Manning over Plunkett, Montana, Staubach, Starr.

It's far less of a criticism than it is an acknowledgement of the others' ability to overcome adversity and lead teams to victory under the most hostile circumstances.

 

[deroc5050]

I do support AJ in this discussion (I was kidding about the popcorn though) and I only speak for myself.

We have no clue why Belichick makes the moves he makes. He's always trying to improve the team and should be. The Pats are giving up less points than every team but one in the entire NYJFL, but it's still his job to make it better.

As I mentioned a hundred or so posts ago , I think it's the job of every single player on the roster to help keep the other team from scoring. That alone should tell you that I value more than just scoring points. But the simple fact is that points scored is how we determine winners, and being at the top of a 32 team league does not make you average, let alone below average as someone here called them.

Edit: It's true that right now they're in the easiest part of their schedule and are way down the SOS list, but they started the season and will end the season with a tougher schedule.

Well I am just stating other reasons why the defense hasn't looked so hot. I made a suggestion saying that average QB's are having good games against us and our over all defensive passer rating is average and trending downward. Does passer rating mean much? Not always but it does indicate a general QB's performance. We haven't faced:

Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Ben Rothleisburger
Philip Rivers
Dak Prescott
lol..Alex Smith
Derek Carr
Eli Manning/ Joe Flacco
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Mathew Stafford

We have faced:
Carson Palmer
Ryan Tannehill
Tyrod Taylor 2x
Cody Kessler/ Charlie Whitehurst
Andy Dalton
Landry Jones
Russel Wilson
Collin Kapernick
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Over all QBR is 91 15th best against mostly below average QB's. Just saying thats my main reason of concern.

 

[1960Pats]

Well I am just stating other reasons why the defense hasn't looked so hot. I made a suggestion saying that average QB's are having good games against us and our over all defensive passer rating is average and trending downward. Does passer rating mean much? Not always but it does indicate a general QB's performance. We haven't faced:

Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Ben Rothleisburger
Philip Rivers
Dak Prescott
lol..Alex Smith
Derek Carr
Eli Manning/ Joe Flacco
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Mathew Stafford

We have faced:
Carson Palmer
Ryan Tannehill
Tyrod Taylor 2x
Cody Kessler/ Charlie Whitehurst
Andy Dalton
Landry Jones
Russel Wilson
Collin Kapernick
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Over all QBR is 91 15th best against mostly below average QB's. Just saying thats my main reason of concern.

It's a great discussion to have. One problem that you non defenders have is one that I've been saving for the right moment. This seems like a good time to mention it. Another person in your corner is none other than Michael Felger. That should scare you.

I'll start to worry more if I see the team isn't improving. They seem to improve on defense every year.

 

[mosslost]

How much did you get to see Jim with the Patriots and Raiders? He was always a winner; Oakland had talent but was going nowhere fast before he played.

I did also see all of Elway's career; he was able to make as many plays with his feet as he did with his arm. Nothing personal; no, I would never start him or Manning over Plunkett, Montana, Staubach, Starr.

It's far less of a criticism than it is an acknowledgement of the others' ability to overcome adversity and lead teams to victory under the most hostile circumstances.

a lot. he sucks compared to those QBs. You forfeit your opinion by such a suggestion.

 

[Ring 6]

Well I am just stating other reasons why the defense hasn't looked so hot. I made a suggestion saying that average QB's are having good games against us and our over all defensive passer rating is average and trending downward. Does passer rating mean much? Not always but it does indicate a general QB's performance. We haven't faced:

Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Ben Rothleisburger
Philip Rivers
Dak Prescott
lol..Alex Smith
Derek Carr
Eli Manning/ Joe Flacco
Drew Brees
Aaron Rodgers
Mathew Stafford

We have faced:
Carson Palmer
Ryan Tannehill
Tyrod Taylor 2x
Cody Kessler/ Charlie Whitehurst
Andy Dalton
Landry Jones
Russel Wilson
Collin Kapernick
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Over all QBR is 91 15th best against mostly below average QB's. Just saying thats my main reason of concern.

You do understand that QB rating does not affect who wins right?

 

[deroc5050]

You do understand that QB rating does not affect who wins right?

I am pretty sure it has some indication of how opposing QB's are performing though. The PPG stat will continue to hold up this week because they are playing the rams. However any 12 of those other QB's will put up big numbers on us. Its only a matter of time before we play someone good. The Pats have been pretty fortunate this year with who they have played.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

a lot. he sucks compared to those QBs. You forfeit your opinion by such a suggestion.

Sorry

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I am pretty sure it has some indication of how opposing QB's are performing though. The PPG stat will continue to hold up this week because they are playing the rams. However any 12 of those other QB's will put up big numbers on us. Its only a matter of time before we play someone good. The Pats have been pretty fortunate this year with who they have played.

It sounds to me like you're concerned that later on someone is really going to light up this defense. It's possible; on the other hand, they're developing a strategy which is winning most of their games now; and it's certain that Matt and Bill are working toward giving the defense their best shot at succeeding.

Let's see how they do today.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Another person in your corner is none other than Michael Felger. That should scare you.

That alone is reason enough to totally reverse field.

Michael may be a good guy, but his observations and opinions make him...fit right in with most of the local and national media...

 

[1960Pats]

It sounds to me like you're concerned that later on someone is really going to light up this defense. It's possible; on the other hand, they're developing a strategy which is winning most of their games now; and it's certain that Matt and Bill are working toward giving the defense their best shot at succeeding.

Let's see how they do today.

The Rams offense has been poor, so the Pats defense is in a no win situation with the Undefenders. The best thing for this thread would be a 10-7 Pats win. That might put the heat on the offense a little.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The Rams offense has been poor, so the Pats defense is in a no win situation with the Undefenders. The best thing for this thread would be a 10-7 Pats win. That might put the heat on the offense a little.

Offensively, I'd like to see continued development and investment in the run. Brady & his receivers are still banged up, but can operate effectively, without being depended on too much.

 

[1960Pats]

Offensively, I'd like to see continued development and investment in the run. Brady & his receivers are still banged up, but can operate effectively, without being depended on too much.

I always want to see them run more, especially when they have double digit leads late in games. I understand why they don't but I still don't like it.

Since this thread was started the Pats have moved up in points allowed from 2nd in the AFC to 2nd in the NYFL behind only Seattle. How can that defense be called average?

 

[Ring 6]

I am pretty sure it has some indication of how opposing QB's are performing though. The PPG stat will continue to hold up this week because they are playing the rams. However any 12 of those other QB's will put up big numbers on us. Its only a matter of time before we play someone good. The Pats have been pretty fortunate this year with who they have played.

Yes it is one of hundreds of stats that are part of playing games that end with a result of points. You are taking one of the hundreds of variables and saying it is more important than the results. It's crazy.
I'll ask question number 4 that you won't answer. You have now altered your argument to say the patriots haven't played well on defense because there are 12 QBs they haven't played and you are now basing how they have played on what you think would happen in those 12 games that they haven't played.
So you said there are 12-15 defenses that have played better. So who are the 12-15 defenses at least 10-13 who allow more points that you are now calling better because you project they will somehow play better against these 12 QBs and what makes them better against those 12 but worse against everyone else?