Patriots defense leads league in opponents' yards per point allowed

[Patsfanin Philly]

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com

At 23.0 yards allowed per point allowed, the Patriots have the stingiest defense in the league. It doesn't sound great but a little perspective. In the last ten years there have only been two teams that were above 20.0 yards per point allowed ( 2006 Ravens at 20.8 and 2011 SF 20.5). Simple formula over yards allowed on defense divided by points allowed on defense. The higher the number the more yards it takes for an opponent to score points...
It is a reflection of bend but don't break where opponents may move the ball but they don't score the points, and is the result of good special teams and field position, minimal turnovers, and usually a good red zone defense*. At 61.1% red zone d, it is improving ( 50% over the last three games) and the defense leads the AFC in least points allowed per game at 15.3, good enough for 4th in the entire league.
Last year the defense was 17.1 yppa and even in other Super Bowl winning years the team wasn't this stingy (19.2 in 2003, 19.3 in 2004 no data for 2001 and 17.5 in 2014).


* despite what we at Patsfans.com think

 

[Tony2046]

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com

At 23.0 yards allowed per point allowed, the Patriots have the stingiest defense in the league. It doesn't sound great but a little perspective. In the last ten years there have only been two teams that were above 20.0 yards per point allowed ( 2006 Ravens at 20.8 and 2011 SF 20.5). Simple formula over yards allowed on defense divided by points allowed on defense. The higher the number the more yards it takes for an opponent to score points...
It is a reflection of bend but don't break where opponents may move the ball but they don't score the points, and is the result of good special teams and field position, minimal turnovers, and usually a good red zone defense*. At 61.1% red zone d, it is improving ( 50% over the last three games) and the defense leads the AFC in least points allowed per game at 15.3, good enough for 4th in the entire league.
Last year the defense was 17.1 yppa and even in other Super Bowl winning years the team wasn't this stingy (19.2 in 2003, 19.3 in 2004 no data for 2001 and 17.5 in 2014).


* despite what we at Patsfans.com think

Sure thing Mr. "I'll use stats to prove this defense is good" guy.

But what about the freaking "eye test". Explain that smarty pants.

 

[Urgent]

That's sort of like in baseball having the lowest opponent BABIP. Sorta good, sorta bad. Partly great execution - interceptions in the end zone, great fourth-down stops, partly luck - missed field goals, going for it on fourth down when behind.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Sure thing Mr. "I'll use stats to prove this defense is good" guy.

But what about the freaking "eye test". Explain that smarty pants.

Looks fine to me...........

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Belichick said last week (I think it was last week) that the best measure of a Defense was "Points Allowed."

So, since I know diddly squat about the game in comparison to him, I've got to accept that.

But, I worry that a D that's giving up as many yards as are the Patriots is a D that could be vulnerable as the season wears on. But, Belichick has a "gotcha" against me on that one (Surprise, Surprise!), because if they start giving up more points, then he'd no doubt say that the D is no longer playing as well as it was.

Since I can recognize an argument that I'm not going to win, in the end, I just have to say "In BB I trust."

 

[Tony2046]

That's sort of like in baseball having the lowest opponent BABIP. Sorta good, sorta bad. Partly great execution - interceptions in the end zone, great fourth-down stops, partly luck - missed field goals, going for it on fourth down when behind.

Good stuff Urgent.

I like looking at differentials to view a team as a whole.

 

[bbobbo]

this stat doesn't really make much sense to me. basically it's saying that you'd rather have a defense that gives up 500 yards and 15 ppg over a defense that gives up 250 yards and 15 ppg. i think i would prefer the latter defense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com

At 23.0 yards allowed per point allowed, the Patriots have the stingiest defense in the league. It doesn't sound great but a little perspective. In the last ten years there have only been two teams that were above 20.0 yards per point allowed ( 2006 Ravens at 20.8 and 2011 SF 20.5). Simple formula over yards allowed on defense divided by points allowed on defense. The higher the number the more yards it takes for an opponent to score points...
It is a reflection of bend but don't break where opponents may move the ball but they don't score the points, and is the result of good special teams and field position, minimal turnovers, and usually a good red zone defense*. At 61.1% red zone d, it is improving ( 50% over the last three games) and the defense leads the AFC in least points allowed per game at 15.3, good enough for 4th in the entire league.
Last year the defense was 17.1 yppa and even in other Super Bowl winning years the team wasn't this stingy (19.2 in 2003, 19.3 in 2004 no data for 2001 and 17.5 in 2014).


* despite what we at Patsfans.com think

More perspective....

What this stat tells you that the key tenant to BB's defensive philosophy is to not give up the big play and make the opposing offense sustain their drives. That will never change. By default they will give up yards with that philosophy. Period.

From 2003-2015 they've never finished lower than 13th (2005). Even the "sucky" defenses from 2010-2012 finished 2nd, 2nd and 6th respectfully. In 01 they were 19.6 which I suspect would be in the top 5. In 00 and 02 they were in the 15s. Not good but not god awful.

Some years they have good 3rd down/red zone D. Some years are mediocre. Some years they force a ton of turnovers. Some years they have a great pass rush and cover guys in the secondary. Some years the D makes a ton of plays and are stout. Some a little leaky (02, 05, 08) but were never the second coming of this years 49ers or Browns.

This is a very good defense and barring key injuries will continue to play faster and improve.

 

[Ring 6]

this stat doesn't really make much sense to me. basically it's saying that you'd rather have a defense that gives up 500 yards and 15 ppg over a defense that gives up 250 yards and 15 ppg. i think i would prefer the latter defense.

Its not a choice. Its a calculation of the value of gaining yards against a defense, in terms of what matters, points.

But you are looking at it one way, and of course the other way, is I'd rather have a defense that gives up 350 yards and 15 points than one that gives up 350 yards and 30 points.

 

[Tony2046]

Belichick said last week (I think it was last week) that the best measure of a Defense was "Points Allowed."

So, since I know diddly squat about the game in comparison to him, I've got to accept that.

But, I worry that a D that's giving up as many yards as are the Patriots is a D that could be vulnerable as the season wears on. But, Belichick has a "gotcha" against me on that one (Surprise, Surprise!), because if they start giving up more points, then he'd no doubt say that the D is no longer playing as well as it was.

Since I can recognize an argument that I'm not going to win, in the end, I just have to say "In BB I trust."

Some say the bend but don't break approach is frustrating and at times it is but not because of the scheme but because of some of the unforced errors which should improve over time. For example in the Steelers game we saw the offense drop two third down passes and an Edelman fumble which put the defense back on the field. Sustained offensive drives keeps the defense rested etc....

Anyways I think they clean those things up and the bend but don't break will look a lot less frustrating although not completely.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

this stat doesn't really make much sense to me. basically it's saying that you'd rather have a defense that gives up 500 yards and 15 ppg over a defense that gives up 250 yards and 15 ppg. i think i would prefer the latter defense.

To me, a better metric would be "minutes per point allowed" or something similar to that. The value of giving up more yards while giving up few points is that you are shortening the game. So if you mesure how long on average the opponent have to possess the ball before they score and then the average lenght of possession, you can have a good mesure, IMO. It isn't a single metric, but both together tells a more complete story. Points per possesion could do the trick I guess, but it doesn't mesure your ability to shorten the game.

 

[fxkane]

It seems to me that large amounts of yards are given up at the half ends, and also when a team has a big lead. This is bend but don't break taken to a higher degree than usual, and sometimes reflects the need for the defense to rest a little by playing zone.

These yards are to me fairly bogus yards or strategy yards and are thus quite meaningless when calculating the kind of stats at issue here. A team too far behind to try field goals or punt, may boost their offensive stats because of 4 downs and open zones to throw in.... but the numbers mean nuttin.

 

[oldrover]

OT: As a teen, Mrs. Rover was head cheerleader for a high school football team that often heard the phrase "they bend but don't break"...




...the Garden City Trojans.

 

[RIpats88]

the defense seems to be improving. I think as Butler gets healthier they will get more agressive.

 

[PF_SU]

If we are already talking about defensive stats, the difference between the Patriots' first half and second half defense is extreme. Especially if the entire Miami game (where the defense dominated the first before falling asleep in the second half) is removed.

The Patriots' second half pass defense compares well to the best defenses in the NFL despite not getting sacks unlike them (the Broncos, Vikings and Seahawks). In terms of pure yards per attempt the Patriots second half pass defense without the Miami collapse would lead the league and in terms of net yards per attempt they'd be second to the Broncos.

To me, a better metric would be "minutes per point allowed" or something similar to that.

The key metric here is points per drive.

 

[bbobbo]

Its not a choice. Its a calculation of the value of gaining yards against a defense, in terms of what matters, points.

But you are looking at it one way, and of course the other way, is I'd rather have a defense that gives up 350 yards and 15 points than one that gives up 350 yards and 30 points.

what about a defense that gives up 300 yards and 15 points versus a defense that gives up 600 yards and 30 points? obviously, we'd prefer the first defense, but on this stat, both are equivalent--20 yards per point allowed.

edit: or, to make it more obvious, 300 yards and 15 ppg vs 600 yards and 20 ppg. on this stat, the second defense is "better" because its yards per point is higher--30ypp vs 20ypp.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

If we are already talking about defensive stats, the difference between the Patriots' first half and second half defense is extreme. Especially if the entire Miami game (where the defense dominated the first before falling asleep in the second half) is removed.

The Patriots' second half pass defense compares well to the best defenses in the NFL despite not getting sacks unlike them (the Broncos, Vikings and Seahawks). In terms of pure yards per attempt the Patriots second half pass defense without the Miami collapse would lead the league and in terms of net yards per attempt they'd be second to the Broncos.


The key metric here is points per drive.

Pats are 5th in the league at 1.42 points per drive allowed....
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 DEFENSIVE DRIVE STATS

 

[Ring 6]

Another way to look at it is per drive. The problem we have here is that roughly 12 drives get lumped into 1 number then averaged over games, and it bastardizes analyzing what is going on on the football field.
Here is an example:
Lets say Team A allows 360 yards per game, on 12 drives, or 30 yards per drive.
Another team B allows 320 yards per game, on 12 drives, or 27 yards per drive.
A would be 18th in yards, B would be 8th.

We can use the 25 as a starting line, but again, we bastardize with averages.

Would you rather have 12 drives with:
A allows 1 75 yard TD Drive
2 50 yard FG drives
9 drives of 20-21 yards that result in punts or turnovers.

B allows 2 75 yard TD drives
2 50 yard FG drives
5 3nd outs
3 drives that 20 yards then punt

In this scenario you trade 6 drives with a first down or 2 and a punt for 5 3 and outs, and a TD drive.

This is why points matter more than yards.
Note that team A isn't playing terrible defense unable to stop anyone, they are just playing a little looser in their own end to not allow big plays resulting in that extra TD, that is the difference between allowing 13 and 20.


Patriots D has allowed 6.1 plays 31.5 yards and 1.4 points per drive.

Houston, is #8 in yards, and #14 in points allowed. Also #8 in 3rd down conversions.
They allow 5.1 plays, 25.6 yards and 1.69 points per drive.

A more perfect example maybe Jacksonville. They are 9th in yards.
There drive stats are 6.1-27.7-2.29

Compared to NE, over 12 drives, they will allow 46 fewer yards, but 8.28 more points.
This is a clear example of a defense that has more 3 and outs, but also more big plays and scoring plays.

Which would you rather be.
The idea that limiting the number of yards is the gauge of a good defense is ignorant, and discounts the fact that they all allow yards and points, and it is a real fact that some are willing to allow yards in order to not allow points.
If you had 2 defense with exactly the same scheme and exactly the same play calls, and one was allowing more yards and fewer points, it would be reasonable to think its a fluke, but since points per drive, points per yard, yards vs points, have an awful lot to do with defensive philosophy, you just can't jump to that conclusion realistically across different teams. Another reason football is not a game of stats.

 

[Ring 6]

what about a defense that gives up 300 yards and 15 points versus a defense that gives up 600 yards and 30 points? obviously, we'd prefer the first defense, but on this stat, both are equivalent--20 yards per point allowed.

Why would you ever think that one individual statistic can gauge a football team?

 

[bbobbo]

Why would you ever think that one individual statistic can gauge a football team?

i wouldn't. as i stated originally, this stat doesn't make sense to me (as a measure of defensive prowess).