Patriots defense leads league in opponents' yards per point allowed

[Ring 6]

Agreed. It's points allowed. BB has also said 3rd down and red zone efficiency are important.

but....

For those of us who are trying to understand the "why" and the "how" 2nd level stats help. What it also tells us that there are a few different ways to reach success.

For example, the 1985 Bears allowed 20.88 yards per point. 2016 Pats allow 23 yards per point. That doesn't necessarily mean the 2016 Pats D is better than the 85 Bears D. It just means that both defenses make the offense work for points. If you go and drill into the 85 Bears red zone % , 3rd down D, qb hurries, comp % against, etc, you will see that their style was much more attack/pressure oriented and teams didn't have a lot of chances to make a chunk play because they a) never had the ball b) never had the time

Another similarity to the 85 Bears

Fun fact 85 bears points allowed through 7 games 105
16 patriots points allowed through 7 games 107

Highest to lowest
Pats. 24,21,18,16,16,13,0
Bears 28,24,19,10,10,7,7

I bet all those bears fans were complaining about how crappy their defense was right?

 

[Tony2046]

the defense seems to be improving. I think as Butler gets healthier they will get more agressive.

He's been looking pretty feisty out there lately.

 

[Tony2046]

Agreed. Third down still concerns me. They were very good in the red area against Pittsburgh, though. Big Ben would likely have changed the complexion of that game, but I'm sure the defensive game plan would have been different had he played anyway.

They were excellent on third down conversions against Pittsburgh as well.

Pittsburgh - Third Down Efficiency 5/16 - 31%

 

[bbobbo]

You're not wrong, but that's not the real point. it's saying, if you're going to give up 15, it's better to make the opponent work by getting 500 yards than doing it on 250.

i don't think it is better, though. especially a patriots-type defense (lots of short plays, no big plays), that means your defense is going to be on the field for a long time. the more time your defense is on the field, the less opportunity there is for your offense to score points.

 

[PF_SU]

That was a great, great defense.

They were great, but my pick for the best defense of the last 20 years would be the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their pass defense was just insane, it was nearly impossible to throw the ball against them.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They were great, but my pick for the best defense of the last 20 years would be the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their pass defense was just insane, it was nearly impossible to throw the ball against them.

Also a great, great defense. Not sure I could pick between the two....

 

[1960Pats]

Why would you ever think that one individual statistic can gauge a football team?

That depends on which gauge you use.

Ever since Mr Stackpole's HS math classes, I've been a huge fan of numbers. Therefore, this thread has been a fun read for me. Thanks to all of you.

Btw, time of possession is another stat that can be looked at both ways. Can a team score too fast for their own defense?

There really are only two numbers that matter at all to a football team and it's fans. The points their team scores and the points their team allows, no matter how it happens.

 

[1960Pats]

I appreciate the effort, but you go too far when you compile stats like this.

What about "yards per 2nd down on Sundays in Winter where the temperature is between 15 and 38 degrees"?

The Patriots are (more probable than not) the leader of that stat.

 

[tasmlab]

If they miss the superbowl this year, they can still hang a 2016 season banner with this stat on it in Gillette.

I think it's an interesting curio when considered in reference with BB's defensive strategy, but on its own doesn't reveal too much. I certainly wouldn't see the metric applied at the player level and get excited.

Dunno.

 

[skinnydog]

Some say the bend but don't break approach is frustrating and at times it is but not because of the scheme but because of some of the unforced errors which should improve over time. For example in the Steelers game we saw the offense drop two third down passes and an Edelman fumble which put the defense back on the field. Sustained offensive drives keeps the defense rested etc....

Anyways I think they clean those things up and the bend but don't break will look a lot less frustrating although not completely.

It's frustrating because it is often painful to watch. It is often passive rather than aggressive. It lets mediocre or bad QBs move the ball downfield rather than forcing 3 and outs. Most painfully it keeps Brady and our powerful O on the sidelines and limits the number of scoring chances. It does work however, mostly I think, because Brady is so damn good the Pats get points on most drives. It's also frustrating because this current D is fun to watch when they do play aggressively.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It's frustrating because it is often painful to watch. It is often passive rather than aggressive. It lets mediocre or bad QBs move the ball downfield rather than forcing 3 and outs. Most painfully it keeps Brady and our powerful O on the sidelines and limits the number of scoring chances. It does work however, mostly I think, because Brady is so damn good the Pats get points on most drives. It's also frustrating because this current D is fun to watch when they do play aggressively.

While somewhat true, it's not like they are allowing 4-5 long drives a game. They are stopping people.

Keep in mind the pressure this offense puts on opposing offenses helps the defense.

Blackbeard and BB make solid 1/2 time adjustments, but when you are up 27-13 in the middle of the 3rd or 4th quarter, opposing offenses need to start taking some chances to try and get back in the game.

BB is more than happy (within reason) to allow a FG or a TD that takes the opposing offense 8 minutes to execute on.

We've seen that type of scenario play out for 3 straight weeks and pretty much over the last 16 years.

 

[sambam94]

more yardage means longer drives..that's tiring out the defense more over the course of the game

 

[Kontradiction]

Any discussion of the defense has to be taken with a grain of salt, whether it's a negative outcome or positive outcome, as the Patriots haven't even used some of their most exotic packages just yet. Why? They haven't been forced to. They've played bad and/or mobile quarterbacks for the majority of the season. The real test comes when they face a quarterback and an offense that makes them use some of their most exotic coverages and blitz packages and makes them actually have to disguise. I suspect that will come next week against the Seahawks. Maybe against the Jets after that, but that depends on whether or not Fitzception regains any shred of confidence he has left. The rest of the schedule looks like this...

@ Bills
vs Seahawks
@ 49ers
@ Jets
vs Rams
vs Ravens
@ Broncos
vs Jets

...so, realistically, after the Seahawks game, the Pats may be able to afford to keep being absolutely bland on defense without any sort of penalty and we may not see some of their most exotic stuff until the postseason.

 

[Tony2046]

It's frustrating because it is often painful to watch. It is often passive rather than aggressive. It lets mediocre or bad QBs move the ball downfield rather than forcing 3 and outs. Most painfully it keeps Brady and our powerful O on the sidelines and limits the number of scoring chances. It does work however, mostly I think, because Brady is so damn good the Pats get points on most drives. It's also frustrating because this current D is fun to watch when they do play aggressively.

Disclaimer: I am obviously not the best X's and O's guy so this simply my novice opinion.

Pittsburgh only converted 31% of their third down conversions and 25% in the red zone so the Pats D performed well in those categories and have continuously improved throughout the season.

The two Patriots 3rd down drops and the two fumbles hurt the defensive numbers by giving the ball back to the Pittsburgh offense as well as making the defense spend more minutes on the field. Clean that up and the D will look better in a way.

My understanding of the bend but don't break philosophy:

1. Designed to prevent the big play. Big plays are pass plays over 25 yards and Rush plays over 10 yards. Big play differential (Patriots lead the league) is combined with turnover differential to create the Toxic differential (Patriots lead the league). (Toxic differential = Big play differential + turnover differential) So at least statistically they are doing their job.

2. Forcing an offense into 10-15 play type drives which increases the odds of either stopping them on 3rd down or creating a turnover. ( I think we will see more turnovers in the future. They've been just missing in a few games so I think they will start to get them )

3. Force an offense into their weakness. "Take away what they like to do". If a team likes to run force them to throw and vice versa. Landry is a backup so they forced him to throw and, btw, he threw a couple of dimes into good coverage that not many could have defended so credit to him. Landry started a couple of games last year and had a QBR of 77.3. He had a QBR of 76.6 against the Patriots so he didn't really play better but to your point he didn't play worse either.

4. Complement the offense. Make sure the opponent scores less than your offense. What does that mean? It means when your team is up by 2 TD's burn the clock and not worry about stats. That's the frustrating part imo especially during the Miami comeback but that had more to do with having a 3rd string QB in the game than game planning.

My guess is that you will get your wish this weekend. TT is a serious rushing threat and they like to run so I think you will see more guys in the box to create containment which may lead to pressure and/or sacks.

We'll see I guess but this team is solid in all 3 phases. If I were to pick a weakness it would be the Oline but it is still an average to good line. This weekend will be a good test for them.

 

[Tony2046]

more yardage means longer drives..that's tiring out the defense more over the course of the game

I agree but on average the Offensive and Defense have, thus far, split their time on the field 50/50. Although in the last game they were on the field about 2.5 minutes longer.

This is a link to Offensive minutes:

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Average Time of Possession (Excluding OT) on TeamRankings.com

 

[Tony2046]

i don't think it is better, though. especially a patriots-type defense (lots of short plays, no big plays), that means your defense is going to be on the field for a long time. the more time your defense is on the field, the less opportunity there is for your offense to score points.

I agree with that premise but up to now which includes the 4 games without Brady they have averaged 30 minutes on the field both offensively and defensively. Not great but not bad either.

Take away any of the two 3rd down drops and/or the two fumbles and your defensive stats change for the better which were good to begin with.

IOW, part of the reason the Defense was on the field was because the Offense couldn't stay on the field.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

They were great, but my pick for the best defense of the last 20 years would be the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their pass defense was just insane, it was nearly impossible to throw the ball against them.

And it got even better in the Super Bowl when the Raiders didn't change their audibles from the year before so they knew what was coming!!!!!

 

[RobertWeathers]

Any discussion of the defense has to be taken with a grain of salt, whether it's a negative outcome or positive outcome, as the Patriots haven't even used some of their most exotic packages just yet. Why? They haven't been forced to. They've played bad and/or mobile quarterbacks for the majority of the season. The real test comes when they face a quarterback and an offense that makes them use some of their most exotic coverages and blitz packages and makes them actually have to disguise. I suspect that will come next week against the Seahawks. Maybe against the Jets after that, but that depends on whether or not Fitzception regains any shred of confidence he has left. The rest of the schedule looks like this...

@ Bills
vs Seahawks
@ 49ers
@ Jets
vs Rams
vs Ravens
@ Broncos
vs Jets

...so, realistically, after the Seahawks game, the Pats may be able to afford to keep being absolutely bland on defense without any sort of penalty and we may not see some of their most exotic stuff until the postseason.

SEA can't run the football and Wilson throws a nice deep ball.

They will play the same exact way vs SEA.

 

[Kontradiction]

SEA can't run the football and Wilson throws a nice deep ball.

They will play the same exact way vs SEA.

I would be surprised if they did. Wilson has very much improved as a pocket passer since Super Bowl 49.

 

[Ring 6]

more yardage means longer drives..that's tiring out the defense more over the course of the game

No it's not. It's a few plays a game