The Playoff Picture

[supafly]

I think it's a mistake to underestimate Cincy.

I agree with you. This year's Cincy team looks much different than past teams.

They have multiple weapons at WR, a TE who is scoring TDs at a Gronk-like pace, an excellent 3rd down RB in Benard, a lead back in Hill, an OL that ranks in the top 5 in both run blocking and pass protection, and a QB who is making much better decisions.

Their defense is obviously quite good as well.
I think that NE is playing very well too, but I just can't get behind the idea that there's zero competition out there, as some have suggested.

 

[1960Pats]

I agree with you. This year's Cincy team looks much different than past teams.

They have multiple weapons at WR, a TE who is scoring TDs at a Gronk-like pace, an excellent 3rd down RB in Benard, a lead back in Hill, an OL that ranks in the top 5 in both run blocking and pass protection, and a QB who is making much better decisions.

Their defense is obviously quite good as well.
I think that NE is playing very well too, but I just can't get behind the idea that there's zero competition out there, as some have suggested.

I'm sure that many fans will want to overlook them because of their HC, but as BB says, it's a players game. And Cincy has quite a few good ones. Plus, if Tony Dungy can win a SB any HC can.

 

[MassPats38]

I'm sure that many fans will want to overlook them because of their HC, but as BB says, it's a players game. And Cincy has quite a few good ones. Plus, if Tony Dungy can win a SB any HC can.

I agree it is silly to write the Bengals off as a postseason threat, but teams do tend to find ways to lose games if they focus on past mistakes. The Bengals have averaged 10 wins per season since 2011 with Dalton, and have never lacked talent on offense (Gresham was no slouch on TE, and the Bengals have always found good WRs and RBs) and defense.

Given the work to get to the postseason, it would be tough not to think about folding in the playoffs in one season in a subsequent playoff game, let alone in 4 as Dalton has (1 TD, 6 INT, 4 fumbles in playoffs). That is the one position you cannot plan to de-emphasize, barring a 100% running game. Dalton goes from a decent QB in the regular season to flat awful in the playoffs. Until he gets over that first playoff win hurdle and finds a degree of comfort, I can understand the skepticism as he can blow the game up single-handedly.

 

[1960Pats]

I agree it is silly to write the Bengals off as a postseason threat, but teams do tend to find ways to lose games if they focus on past mistakes. The Bengals have averaged 10 wins per season since 2011 with Dalton, and have never lacked talent on offense (Gresham was no slouch on TE, and the Bengals have always found good WRs and RBs) and defense.

Given the work to get to the postseason, it would be tough not to think about folding in the playoffs in one season in a subsequent playoff game, let alone in 4 as Dalton has (1 TD, 6 INT, 4 fumbles in playoffs). That is the one position you cannot plan to de-emphasize, barring a 100% running game. Dalton goes from a decent QB in the regular season to flat awful in the playoffs. Until he gets over that first playoff win hurdle and finds a degree of comfort, I can understand the skepticism as he can blow the game up single-handedly.

Yes, I understand that line of thinking. But I also think it's dangerous to overlook him. Maybe he's learning. If we do end up playing them I'll be pulling for bad Dalton to return to form.

It's funny how some QBs, like Dalton and P6, seem to play their worst in the playoffs, while others, like Eli, seem to play lousy in the regular season and then step it up in the playoffs.

And then there's Tommy LomBrady, who shines all the time.

 

[Fencer]

NE's SoV and SoS would be equal. And CIN's SoV and SoS would be equal.

That was my point.

 

[Fencer]

Brady owns Wade Phillips defenses

We'll know a lot more about that soon.

 

[Joey007]

I don't know if I trust Atlanta to do anything, maybe Seattle or st. Louis will do something to get the 6th seed

I do agree, I just leave them in for now because of how far ahead they are record wise, they are still 6-3

 

[TommyD4207]

I think the NFL should go by record period and not Division if a Wild Card Team have a better record than a division winner they shoud be sloted accordinly.

Winning the division has to count for something, otherwise why have them?

The NFL places a huge premium on winning divisions. You don't want to be a wild card team? Win yours. Division strength cycles over time. 5 years ago, the AFC West was the weakest division in football, and had a 7-9 division winner (beating the 11-5 wildcard team, btw). 2 years later, it was the singular strongest in football hands down. Today? It's middle of the pack, on the downswing again.

So you don't want a weak division winner? What about the weak wild card team who beat up on that weak division all year, and couldn't beat anyone good.

You want to make the playoffs, win your division. You earn that home game, because it's a 16-week award. Otherwise? You'd better hope your team has enough wins to get in as a wildcard.

 

[TommyD4207]

We'll know a lot more about that soon.

I mean, it's a fact, not an opinion.

Wade Phillips Defenses v. Tom Brady Offenses:

2005 - 19-32 224 yds 1 TD, 1 INT - 1 sack, 8 yds - 78.1 rating
2006 - 27-51 280 yds 2 TD, 3 INT - 2 sacks, 4 yds - 57.6 rating
2007 - 31-46 388 yds 5 TD, 0 INT - 3 Sacks, 15 yds - 129.6 rating
2012 - 21-36 296 yds 4 TD, 1 INT - 1 sack, 7 yds - 110.4 rating
2012 - 25-40 344 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT - 1 sack, 9 yds - 115.0 rating
2013 - 29-41 371 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT - 1 sack, 6 yds - 104.8 rating

Totals - 6 Games:
152-246 (61.7%), 1903 yds, 17 TD, 6 INT, 9 sacks, 98.7 rating

If you're one of those "if you take out this game" people, the worst rating is the 2006 playoff game vs. SD, and the best is the 2007 game vs. Dallas.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I'm sure that many fans will want to overlook them because of their HC, but as BB says, it's a players game. And Cincy has quite a few good ones. Plus, if Tony Dungy can win a SB any HC can.

You might have meant Jon Gruden?

 

[RIpats88]

I still wouldnt trust marvin lewis and dalton vs. Belicheck and brady in foxboro

 

[VectorPrime]

I still wouldnt trust marvin lewis and dalton vs. Belicheck and brady in foxboro

Assuming the game is in Foxboro. Bengals need to start dropping games.

 

[1960Pats]

You might have meant Jon Gruden?

Him also.

Edit: There were extenuating circumstances with Grudens SB win though. He played his former team with a HC who used the exact same offense that Gruden had used the year before. The game turned into a blowout.

 

[1960Pats]

Winning the division has to count for something, otherwise why have them?

That's a great question. I'm sure it's so an undeserving team can get a playoff berth while another better team with a better record, and possibly a win over that team, can sit at home along with their fans and watch that undeserving team play in the playoffs.

I get a kick out of the NFL calling 4 teams a division. In a league with 32 teams, all any one of them needs is to have a better record than 3 of those 32 teams, no matter what that record may be. In the case of Indy those other teams suck with a capital "S" and have for quite some time.

Maybe if the Pats finish at 14-2 and have to go play 7-9 Indy in round one at Indy, a team they beat this year, then we will see how people here feel about that. I guess the Pats sitting home in 2008 with a 11-5 record while San Diego went with an 8-8 record, wasn't enough to make the point.

Hopefully, this year it will be the Jets who get screwed out of the playoffs. Then you'll see the NYJFL make some changes.

 

[VectorPrime]

I literally don't want a single thing about the current playoff format to change.

 

[1960Pats]

I literally don't want a single thing about the current playoff format to change.

I've never liked it, even before the Pats got screwed in 2008.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's a great question. I'm sure it's so an undeserving team can get a playoff berth while another better team with a better record, and possibly a win over that team, can sit at home along with their fans and watch that undeserving team play in the playoffs.

It's about an unbalanced schedule.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I literally don't want a single thing about the current playoff format to change.

Exactly. It's not like every year u get a 7-9 or 8-8 team winning the division. Honor division winners

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Maybe if the Pats finish at 14-2 and have to go play 7-9 Indy in round one at Indy, a team they beat this year, then we will see how people here feel about that. I guess the Pats sitting home in 2008 with a 11-5 record while San Diego went with an 8-8 record, wasn't enough to make the point.

Hopefully, this year it will be the Jets who get screwed out of the playoffs. Then you'll see the NYJFL make some changes.

That literally can't happen this year; if Indy is hosting a playoff game in round 1, they'll be hosting a team that didn't win its division.

 

[Deus Irae]

Exactly. It's not like every year u get a 7-9 or 8-8 team winning the division. Honor division winners

People who ***** about bad teams getting in need to realize that the biggest reason those teams are getting in is because of playoff expansion. When you increase the number of playoff teams, you get worse teams in the playoffs. It doesn't get solved by eliminating division importance or any other gimmick, as the NBA and NHL demonstrate.