The Playoff Picture

[1960Pats]

Now that we've reached the halfway point in the season, this might be a good time to start to evaluate the playoff possibilities. Below are the teams that currently have no more than 4 losses and the remaing games they have aginst the other teams in the same category. Of course a team with 5 or 6 losses can work into the picture, but for now I think we can stick with these teams.

AFC (8 teams)
N - Cincy (8-0) @Ari, SL, Pit, @Den - 4 games
E - NE (8-0) @NYG, Buf, @Den, Phi, @NYJ - 5 (3 on the road)
W - Den (7-1) NE, Oak, @Pitt, Cincy - 4 (3 at home)
S - Indy (4-5) @Atl, @Pitt - 2 (both on the road)
NYJ (5-3) Buff(2), @NYG, NE - 4
Pitt (5-4) @Sea, @Cin, Indy, Den - 4
Buff (4-4) NYJ(2), @NE, @Philly - 4 (3 on the road)
Oak (4-4) Minny, @Den, GB - 3

NFC (9 teams)
S - Car (8-0) Atl(2), @NYG - 3 games
W - Ariz (6-2) Sea(2), Cin, @SL, Min, @Phi, GB - 7 (4 at home)
N - GB (6-2) Min(2), @Oak, @Ariz - 4 (3 on the road)
E - NYG (5-4) NE, NYJ, Car, @Min, Philly - 5 (4 at home)
Minny (6-2) @Oak, GB(2), @Atl, Sea, @Ariz, NYG - 7 (4 on the road)
Atlanta (6-3) Indy, Minn, Carolina(2) - 4 (3 at home)
Philly (4-4) @NE, Buff, Ariz, @NYG - 4
Seattle (4-4) Ariz(2), Pitt, @Minn, SL - 5 (3 at home)
SL (4-4) @Cincy, Ariz, @Seattle - 3

Looking at that list shows that if the Jets win tonight they'll only have 2 games left against teams with 4 losses or less, and the only away game of those will be at the stadium they share with the Giants.

Denver's only away game is at Pitt.

Indy has only two games against other teams on the list. That's pathetic, and a great example of why this idiotic 4 team division setup is a joke.

It looks like Minny has a real tough road to overtake GB and to stay ahead of Philly, Seattle and St Louis, especially now that Fisher's team has targeted Bridgewater.

 

[BobDigital]

A few Notes.

The AFC pictures gets very interesting tonight if the NYJ lose. If they lose the 4 WC contenders all have 4 loses. Doesn't get much tighter than that.

The most dangerous WC team IMO is still Pitt if Ben ever gets healthy so if I am rooting for any one team not to make it in it would be them i guess.

Looks at the schedules though i think Bengals > Broncos it should still be close going late into the year and will probably come down to that Bengas @ Broncos game.

For all the talk the NFC has gotten over the ppast fews years as the stronger division who in it is really that good? I could argue the top 3 teams might all be in the AFC.

AZ and Minn playing 7 winning teams for the next 8 games. I think AZ could turn out to be the biggest issues in the NFC if they make it cause they will be so battle tested. I just don't believe in Minn. Not scared of Bridgewater no matter how good that D is... Not scared of him for now anyway; maybe next year we will see.

I can't bring myself to ignore Seattle. After a tough start they have battled back to 500. Curious to see if they can get in. With their OL it will be tough.

Carolina has the best record in the NFC but I just don't see it. They have a good QB, OL and D but you really need some weapons and they only have 1 with the TE. Maybe they get the number 1 seed but i don't see them making the SB.

 

[VrabelJr]

PLAYOFFS?!

 

[neuronet]

So far, this is the coolest site I have found on looking at playoff picture:
2015 NFL Post Season Probabilities

Gives Patriots probabilities here:
New England Patriots Playoff Picture

One cool thing it gives the most important games coming up this week, in terms of Patriots playoffs hopes:
New England Patriots Most Important Games

It also has a very cool "What if" page that generates best case and worst-case scenarios for the weekend:
New England Patriots What If?

E.g., best case scenario for us:
Chiefs beats Broncos [lol sure]
Patriots beats Giants
Texans beats Bengals [lol]

Frankly I don't know what algorithm the site uses, which is pretty key! If anyone finds it, let us know. I could spend hours there.

 

[1960Pats]

A few Notes.

The AFC pictures gets very interesting tonight if the NYJ lose. If they lose the 4 WC contenders all have 4 loses. Doesn't get much tighter than that.

The most dangerous WC team IMO is still Pitt if Ben ever gets healthy so if I am rooting for any one team not to make it in it would be them i guess.

Looks at the schedules though i think Bengals > Broncos it should still be close going late into the year and will probably come down to that Bengas @ Broncos game.

For all the talk the NFC has gotten over the ppast fews years as the stronger division who in it is really that good? I could argue the top 3 teams might all be in the AFC.

AZ and Minn playing 7 winning teams for the next 8 games. I think AZ could turn out to be the biggest issues in the NFC if they make it cause they will be so battle tested. I just don't believe in Minn. Not scared of Bridgewater no matter how good that D is... Not scared of him for now anyway; maybe next year we will see.

I can't bring myself to ignore Seattle. After a tough start they have battled back to 500. Curious to see if they can get in. With their OL it will be tough.

Carolina has the best record in the NFC but I just don't see it. They have a good QB, OL and D but you really need some weapons and they only have 1 with the TE. Maybe they get the number 1 seed but i don't see them making the SB.

Well, the playoff picture did get more interesting. That win was monumental for the Bills.

I agree on the danger of the Steelers.

The NFC has been getting hyped up for many years. The AFC vs NFC is close this year but you'd never know it. I even had a disagreement about that here with someone who was praising the superiority of the NFC. Hogwash I say.

Apparently Fisher was worried about Bridgewater and had his team target him for extinction. Rodney was right about that jerk. Minny has a very tough remaining schedule.

Seattle isn't as tough as they have been. If they don't win both Arizona games they'll be hard pressed to catch up to the other playoff teams.

Carolina's pretty much a lock to have the #1 seed, and if they can get by the two Falcons games they have a very realistic shot at going 16-0.

 

[1960Pats]

Time for an adjustment...

AFC (8 teams)
N - Cincy (8-0) @Ari, SL, Pit, @Den - 4 games
E - NE (8-0) @NYG, Buf, @Den, Phi, @NYJ - 5 (3 on the road)
W - Den (7-1) NE, Oak, @Pitt, Cincy - 4 (3 at home)
S - Indy (4-5) @Atl, @Pitt - 2 (both on the road)
Buff (5-4) NYJ, @NE, @Philly - 3
NYJ (5-4) @Buff, @NYG, NE - 3
Pitt (5-4) @Sea, @Cin, Indy, Den - 4
Oak (4-4) Minny, @Den, GB - 3

NFC (9 teams)
S - Car (8-0) Atl(2), @NYG - 3 games
W - Ariz (6-2) Sea(2), Cin, @SL, Min, @Phi, GB - 7 (4 at home)
N - GB (6-2) Min(2), @Oak, @Ariz - 4 (3 on the road)
E - NYG (5-4) NE, NYJ, Car, @Min, Philly - 5 (4 at home)
Minny (6-2) @Oak, GB(2), @Atl, Sea, @Ariz, NYG - 7 (4 on the road)
Atlanta (6-3) Indy, Minn, Carolina(2) - 4 (3 at home)
Philly (4-4) @NE, Buff, Ariz, @NYG - 4
Seattle (4-4) Ariz(2), Pitt, @Minn, SL - 5 (3 at home)
SL (4-4) @Cincy, Ariz, @Seattle - 3

 

[Fencer]

16-0 doesn't seem quite as out of reach as it used to. That said, nobody's doing it in the AFC this year unless they win in Denver, and the Bengals also have a tough road challenge in Arizona. Beyond that, there are a lot of other possible losses, each of them individually low probability, but those probabilities do multiply up.

 

[1960Pats]

16-0 doesn't seem quite as out of reach as it used to. That said, nobody's doing it in the AFC this year unless they win in Denver, and the Bengals also have a tough road challenge in Arizona. Beyond that, there are a lot of other possible losses, each of them individually low probability, but those probabilities do multiply up.

I think the biggest factor for the Pats will be the common games with the Bengals.
Cincy - Pitt (2), @Buffalo, Houston and @Denver
Pats - Buffalo(2), Pitt, @Houston and @Denver
We have a win in the bank vs Buffalo and Cincy has a win in the bank vs Pitt.

 

[aluminum seats]

Such a sea of mediocrity. Hell, the Ravens at 2-6 can not unreasonably still hope for a wildcard. I mean, they suck, but so does most of the conference. And league.

 

[Rob0729]

The funny thing is the Pats could clench the AFC East by the first week of December.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The funny thing is the Pats could clench the AFC East by the first week of December.

It's a long-shot, but the Pats could actually clinch the AFC East in the hours before the Broncos game. If they beat the Giants and Bills next week, they'll own all the relevant division tiebreakers.

Miami has to lose one of their next 2 and then beat the Jets. Buffalo needs to lose to us and the next week (KC?). Jets need to lose next week (Houston?) and then to the Dolphins. Pats would then be 10-0, Jets and Bills both 5-6 and Dolphins no better than 5-6. Pats win every conceivable tiebreaker (Jets and Bills would still have a game against each other so only one of them could go to 10-6).

 

[Concussion Protocol]

I think the biggest factor for the Pats will be the common games with the Bengals.
Cincy - Pitt (2), @Buffalo, Houston and @Denver
Pats - Buffalo(2), Pitt, @Houston and @Denver
We have a win in the bank vs Buffalo and Cincy has a win in the bank vs Pitt.

Cincy also beat BUF, and the Pats also beat PIT.

 

[1960Pats]

Cincy also beat BUF, and the Pats also beat PIT.

Thanks CP.

I'm not too sure how the common game thing works btw. Do both of the Buffalo games count for the Pats and both of the Pitt games count for Cincy?

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Thanks CP.

I'm not too sure how the common game thing works btw. Do both of the Buffalo games count for the Pats and both of the Pitt games count for Cincy?

I think they get tossed out as a tiebreaker if a team splits with a common opponent who is in their division, so I think PIT and BUF are off the table as a common opponent. Not positive, but pretty sure that's how it works.

 

[Fencer]

Is there any chance that the Patriots and Bengals both go 16-0 without also being equal in any tiebreaker that involves W-L records?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Is there any chance that the Patriots and Bengals both go 16-0 without also being equal in any tiebreaker that involves W-L records?

Yes. Because of the strength of victory (total record of teams you beat) and strength of schedule (total record of teams you played).

 

[Fencer]

Yes. Because of the strength of victory (total record of teams you beat) and strength of schedule (total record of teams you played).

Of course, in my scenario those are identical.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I think they get tossed out as a tiebreaker if a team splits with a common opponent who is in their division, so I think PIT and BUF are off the table as a common opponent. Not positive, but pretty sure that's how it works.

The common-opponents tiebreaker for figuring out ranking among division winners is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four."

Since it's a percentage I doubt that splits against division foes get tossed out.

Supporting that view is the fact that for the SoV and SoS tiebreakers both games against a division member get included.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Of course, in my scenario those are identical.

Why are they identical? NE and CIN play different teams. Just because both hypothetically finish 16-0 doesn't mean their SoV and SoS are identical. At the moment, in fact, their SoVs aren't identical.

 

[Fencer]

Why are they identical? NE and CIN play different teams. Just because both hypothetically finish 16-0 doesn't mean their SoV and SoS are identical. At the moment, in fact, their SoVs aren't identical.

You said one was about teams one beat and one was about teams one played.

And in my scenario, those two sets are identical.