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1) This thread made me think about how many elements, many of them random, have to fall in place for a team to win a Super Bowl.
2) I won't second guess the math that leads to 2.6, but it's virtually worthless. All it says is that if you multiply out these 12 sets of probabilities, the mean number of successful outcomes for the Patriots turns out to be 2.6. But that falls into the logical trap that some call "the flaw of averages;" In this case, 2.6 is the average of a specific distribution of potential positive outcomes between zero and 12. It has nothing to do with real life.
3) It's impossible to say that the Pats "should" have won an SB in which they did not play. We have no way of knowing what would have happened in an 06 SB v. the Bears. Brady might have been knocked out of the game on his first play from scrimmage. A number of usually reliable players could have all played the worst games of their professional careers, making error after error that gave the victory to an inferior Chicago team.
4) So, how many "should" they have won? I want to be facetious and say "4," because that's the only verifiable answer. But, if you want me to give a number, my thought process would be that they made it to 6, so they "should" have won somewhere between "0" and "6." Interestingly enough, the average of 0 and 6 is "3," which is a rounding up of 2.6. But, I'll just chalk that up to randomness and say, "somewhere between 0 and 6."
2) I won't second guess the math that leads to 2.6, but it's virtually worthless. All it says is that if you multiply out these 12 sets of probabilities, the mean number of successful outcomes for the Patriots turns out to be 2.6. But that falls into the logical trap that some call "the flaw of averages;" In this case, 2.6 is the average of a specific distribution of potential positive outcomes between zero and 12. It has nothing to do with real life.
3) It's impossible to say that the Pats "should" have won an SB in which they did not play. We have no way of knowing what would have happened in an 06 SB v. the Bears. Brady might have been knocked out of the game on his first play from scrimmage. A number of usually reliable players could have all played the worst games of their professional careers, making error after error that gave the victory to an inferior Chicago team.
4) So, how many "should" they have won? I want to be facetious and say "4," because that's the only verifiable answer. But, if you want me to give a number, my thought process would be that they made it to 6, so they "should" have won somewhere between "0" and "6." Interestingly enough, the average of 0 and 6 is "3," which is a rounding up of 2.6. But, I'll just chalk that up to randomness and say, "somewhere between 0 and 6."