If you go by precedent, and we all know Roger is a lawyer, in 2010 PFT reported this:
Jason La Canfora of NFL Network reports that the league has nailed the Lions for tampering with Chiefs players. The Lions will lose a seventh-round pick acquired from the Broncos in 2011, and the Chiefs and Lions will swap fifth-round picks.
It’s a 14-spot jump for the Chiefs in round five, from 23rd position to ninth.
The charges
first came to light in December 2010, arising from statements made earlier in the year by Lions defensive coordinator (and former Chiefs defensive coordinator and head coach) Gunther Cunningham.
“[Kansas City] keeps wanting to dump their players,” Cunningham said in February 2010. “
I would like to be there to catch a lot of them, because I know a couple of those guys.”
So that was all it took for the league to find tampering. And this was a defensive coordinator, not the head coach, not the GM. Note that he didn't even mention any players names, so if that is worth a 7th round pick and a 14 spot move up in the fifth round. What is the penalty for an owner who said flat out that he would have signed a particular player for the amount he signed with the Pats for, and that he would sign him again if he could?
The punishment for the Jets HAS to be at least this, but it should be even more because a) it was the owner and b) he named a specific player.
If the Jets received any (or no) punishment less than this, if I was Kraft, I would appeal it and point to the 2008 case of SF tampering with Lance Briggs (that penalty was SF lost a 5th and swapped 3rd round picks). This should be the penalty IF Goodell has any consistency. The Pats would swap picks 96 for pick 70, and get the Jets fifth round pick.