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Interesting- usually Football Outsiders has the Patriots ranked just about where they should be correlated with their point differential and W/L record. In fact, if anything, I've noticed they typically rank the Patriots higher than most sites, as they use advanced metrics. For example, in 2009, they had the Patriots as one of the best offenses ever and Brady as the highest measured QB. In recent years, they've had the Patriots off the charts for efficiency.
Before we have the "us against the world crowd" jump in, let's be clear that there is no one there that is "biased" against the Patriots. These are just numbers, with the same formulas applied to every team. I am just very curious why the 2014 version compares so very low compared to past versions.
In total team efficiency rating, the big number, the Patriots rank #7 overall and #8 weighted (odd that they have gone down over the more recent part of the season.) Baltimore (2nd), Miami (3rd!!!), and a very underwhelming Seattle (4th) team are all ranked ahead of them. Those teams do have good defenses, but I don't think anyone would say that in reality they have better teams, or have played better overall, to date.
They have the Patriots offense ranked #9 in weighted and overall efficiency at 9%, while the Broncos are #1 at 27%. The Broncos have played tougher defenses, but is the gap that much? As of now the teams are almost identical in points per game, tied for second in the NFL.
The Patriots running game is ranked 31st in the league! Again to compare, Denver is ranked 14th, while in reality the Patriots are averaging 3.6 YPC with 1 fumble while Denver is averaging 3.7 YPC with 4 fumbles.
They are ranked 17th in overall team defense at 16th in pass defense and 26th in run defense.
Their best ranking is third in special teams.
Not sure if there is just not a lot of value placed on give/takeaways; perhaps FO sees them as a product of luck (although considering the Pats long-term track record, that can't be true.) Pats lead the league with a +12 differential.
Playoff odds are even more skewed from the norm when compared to sportsbooks and forecasts. The Patriots have roughly a 60% chance to win the AFC East on FO, whereas they are rated closer to 85-90% in most books. They have an overall playoff chance of 78%, whereas you can't likely find a book willing to take a bet on whether not they'll get in. They have a 34% chance of getting a bye (1 or 2 seed). Denver has a 93% chance of making the playoffs and 63% chance of getting a bye, despite that it has been pointed out numerous times that the teams have similar challenges in the second half of the season.
Before we have the "us against the world crowd" jump in, let's be clear that there is no one there that is "biased" against the Patriots. These are just numbers, with the same formulas applied to every team. I am just very curious why the 2014 version compares so very low compared to past versions.
In total team efficiency rating, the big number, the Patriots rank #7 overall and #8 weighted (odd that they have gone down over the more recent part of the season.) Baltimore (2nd), Miami (3rd!!!), and a very underwhelming Seattle (4th) team are all ranked ahead of them. Those teams do have good defenses, but I don't think anyone would say that in reality they have better teams, or have played better overall, to date.
They have the Patriots offense ranked #9 in weighted and overall efficiency at 9%, while the Broncos are #1 at 27%. The Broncos have played tougher defenses, but is the gap that much? As of now the teams are almost identical in points per game, tied for second in the NFL.
The Patriots running game is ranked 31st in the league! Again to compare, Denver is ranked 14th, while in reality the Patriots are averaging 3.6 YPC with 1 fumble while Denver is averaging 3.7 YPC with 4 fumbles.
They are ranked 17th in overall team defense at 16th in pass defense and 26th in run defense.
Their best ranking is third in special teams.
Not sure if there is just not a lot of value placed on give/takeaways; perhaps FO sees them as a product of luck (although considering the Pats long-term track record, that can't be true.) Pats lead the league with a +12 differential.
Playoff odds are even more skewed from the norm when compared to sportsbooks and forecasts. The Patriots have roughly a 60% chance to win the AFC East on FO, whereas they are rated closer to 85-90% in most books. They have an overall playoff chance of 78%, whereas you can't likely find a book willing to take a bet on whether not they'll get in. They have a 34% chance of getting a bye (1 or 2 seed). Denver has a 93% chance of making the playoffs and 63% chance of getting a bye, despite that it has been pointed out numerous times that the teams have similar challenges in the second half of the season.