Thompson and Dobson tied for 2nd with most drops, Edelman tied for 4th in NFL

[neuronet]

How many weeks before having a lot of drops becomes a bad thing? :bricks:

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

My grandaughter has seriously improved since last year reducing her drops catching the nerf football. I've been able to increase the velocity of my throws from last years' floaters. Still has problems catching the ball that reaches her right after her break though.

 

[Deus Irae]

My grandaughter has seriously improved since last year reducing her drops catching the nerd football. I've been able to increase the velocity of my throws from last years' floaters. Still has problems catching the ball that reaches her right after her break though.

Your granddaughter rounds off her routes!

















someone had to tell you

 

[grux]

I expect to see more mistakes and drops from our rookie receivers. There aren't many rookies who come right into the NFL and perform like veterans. However, I see tremendous upside for KT and AD. They are both physical receivers who can get down field (Something we haven't had in quite some time). I am excited to see where they are next year at this time.

 

[BradyFTW!]

That's arbitrary and looking at it from its most basic premise. You're still not taking into account other factors. What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon? Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?

These things are unaccounted for in these statistics, thus they do not give a clear and concise picture of what caused the drops. Sometimes drops are much the QB's fault as the receiver's, or as much the defender making a great play than just a flat-out easily catchable pass being dropped under no variable circumstance.

If things are these are not factored into the equation, how can they not be taken at face value? The drops are a concern, but they're correctable. So I don't think the issue is these receivers are not sure-handed, I think they're learning as they go along, and overthinking sometimes. With experience these issues will be minimal over time.

I'm looking at it in the long view, rather than wasting my time worrying what happened in the past. What concerns me is what are these guys are going to do in the future.

By this standard, you might as well ignore literally every statistic in existence, because all of them have some element, somewhere, that they don't account for. That said:

What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon?

Lots of teams play games in bad weather, and the Patriots have played exactly one drive in 'monsoon' conditions (last drive of the Bengals game). Dobson was only targeted once on that drive, and it was on the pass that was intercepted to end the game, so that doesn't account for any of his drops.

Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?

Every receiver has to deal with this, so it in no way explains why Dobson, in particular, is dropping balls at such a dramatically higher rate than his peers. Especially considering that Brady's his quarterback. Even in what has been a down year so far, Brady is still among the very best in the league at throwing extremely catchable balls.

Just to be clear, is your premise that Brady's primarily to blame for the fact that Dobson and Thompkins are both having major problems with drops?

These things are unaccounted for in these statistics, thus they do not give a clear and concise picture of what caused the drops. Sometimes drops are much the QB's fault as the receiver's, or as much the defender making a great play than just a flat-out easily catchable pass being dropped under no variable circumstance.

If the defender breaks up the pass, then it isn't a drop.

Whatever it takes to convince yourself that having the most drops in the league isn't a problem, I guess.

 

[TruthSeeker]

Excellent article on Jerry Rice who has the same struggles.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Too Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust

"Rice, the team's top draft pick, had 26 receptions in 11 games, but he also dropped 10 balls, some of them at the worst possible times."

Great article, I posted this a few weeks ago when people started complaining about drops. I remember seeing Rice beat the Giants deep, catch the ball, continue running, and kicking the ball out of his own hands with his knee out of the end zone for a Giant's touchback.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Great article, I posted this a few weeks ago when people started complaining about drops. I remember seeing Rice beat the Giants deep, catch the ball, continue running, and kicking the ball out of his own hands with his knee out of the end zone for a Giant's touchback.

I think we can safely say that we're all optimistic that they'll both improve their hands over the course of their careers. Just about every player in the league improves after his rookie season.

But how does that help us in 2013? The problem is that right now, in 2013, the Patriots need Dobson and Thompkins to stop dropping the ball with such frequency. If they don't make dramatic progress this season, the Patriots' chances of winning another Super Bowl drop pretty dramatically. There isn't a lot of margin of error left.

 

[Deus Irae]

Excellent article on Jerry Rice who has the same struggles.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Too Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust

"Rice, the team's top draft pick, had 26 receptions in 11 games, but he also dropped 10 balls, some of them at the worst possible times."

Unless your next claim is that both Thompkins and Dobson are going to be the "next Jerry Rice", this is a meaningless article. Bethel Johnson had drop issues too. How'd it work out for him?

 

[Ozymandias]

By this standard, you might as well ignore literally every statistic in existence, because all of them have some element, somewhere, that they don't account for.

Whatever it takes to convince yourself that having the most drops in the league isn't a problem, I guess.

Your first point isn't relevant to this discussion and not worth addressing.

Your second point is equally as irrelevant, but I'll it state once more since you're trying to deviate from the discussion at hand, no one ever claimed that having the most drops is a good thing or isn't a problem. Your attempts at doing so are weak at best.

Do I think it's a problem that they're leading the league in drops? Of course I do. Who doesn't? However, I'm not going to fixate on them because the team is 5-1. Meaning even if they were best team in the league in terms of drops, the best they could be is 6-0. Ergo, the drops haven't had a negative affect on the team's overall record, yet. If later in the year, perhaps December and onward, the issues are still prevalent and the team's losing game after game because of it, then we can safely say it's an enormous issue that can't be corrected this season.

I firmly believe that it can be corrected. So I'm [not] overly concerned about an week 6 statistic that can change on the fly.

You can fixate on meaningless things and semantics all you want, the only stats that truly matter are wins and losses. And last I checked, 5 is greater than 1.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Catch rate is even more subjective because it includes things like passes defensed, bad throws by the QB and balls tipped at the line of scrimmage.

Over a large enough sample size, catch rate can be a very revealing statistic. You're right, though, that 6 games isn't anywhere near large enough.

 

[Triumph]

That's a pretty good catch rate for a fat old commentator like Eddie Andelman.

Nutrition from the Kow Loon will do that for you.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Unless your next claim is that both Thompkins and Dobson are going to be the "next Jerry Rice", this is a meaningless article. Bethel Johnson had drop issues too. How'd it work out for him?

Dobson and Thompkins can run routes other than a 9, and both already have more catches in a season than Johnson ever did.

 

[Deus Irae]

Dobson and Thompkins can run routes other than a 9, and both already have more catches in a season than Johnson ever did.

Come on, man. This site has gone absolutely insane with the comparisons of players to all time greats. Yeah, let's match up Dobson and Thompkins up with the best ever, because that's the likely end point here, and then let's pretend we don't get the point about Bethel Johnson and start talking about route running, as if that's what this is about. :bricks:

 

[Sfpat]

I think we can safely say that we're all optimistic that they'll both improve their hands over the course of their careers. Just about every player in the league improves after his rookie season.

But how does that help us in 2013? The problem is that right now, in 2013, the Patriots need Dobson and Thompkins to stop dropping the ball with such frequency. If they don't make dramatic progress this season, the Patriots' chances of winning another Super Bowl drop pretty dramatically. There isn't a lot of margin of error left.

The obvious solution is to cut all the Pats receivers and bring in new ones such as Jenkins, TO, Ocho, Moss, etc. Then trade for Fitzgerald and C. Johnson (7th rounders should get them). That'll solve all of their problems.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I think we can safely say that we're all optimistic that they'll both improve their hands over the course of their careers. Just about every player in the league improves after his rookie season.

But how does that help us in 2013? The problem is that right now, in 2013, the Patriots need Dobson and Thompkins to stop dropping the ball with such frequency. If they don't make dramatic progress this season, the Patriots' chances of winning another Super Bowl drop pretty dramatically. There isn't a lot of margin of error left.

I'd say the Patriots chances of winning the SB were hurt when Wilfork and Mayo went on IR. Thompkins and Dobson can each catch 100 more passes each AND have 0 drops each going forward, and the odds are still against us. Just too many damned injuries to go toe to toe with Denver.

 

[Nunchucks]

I think we can all agree that the rookie receivers drop the ball way too often, it cost them one game and almost cost them more than that. However, they are rookies, rookies drop passes. They should improve, hope it is as the year progresses, but if not, it will be next season.

Anyhow, they are getting open and they are running the correct routes...we saw some hurry up offense on Sunday....the offense is close to kicking it up a notch, I think.

Just need more jugs time.

 

[brdmaverick]

I would value drop percentage over the actual number of drops. Dobson and Thompkins both see a lot of targets and they're not #2 in percentage dropped so that number is flawed.

Not when analyzing Thompkins........

Even when the guy makes a catch it looks like he is trying to drop it. He's got the shakiest hands in the NFL. I'm glad he came up with 'the big one' on Sunday but we're kidding ourselves if we try to find a way to downplay Thompkins constant battle to make catches.

 

[brdmaverick]

It appears much of this crowd is taking an overly optimistic view of these statistics.

When we think of rookie WR's struggling it's usually a bi-product of getting comfort with the playbook (ie, offensive scheme) and QB chemistry (in play adjustments, etc). Being able to catch the football when you go to the right spot and the QB gives you a good throw is the ONE area that should translate easily from college to pros.

 

[50-yard-line]

Come on, man. This site has gone absolutely insane with the comparisons of players to all time greats. Yeah, let's match up Dobson and Thompkins up with the best ever, because that's the likely end point here, and then let's pretend we don't get the point about Bethel Johnson and start talking about route running, as if that's what this is about. :bricks:

Except that's not what he was doing. All he was doing is showing that rookies drop balls and that's not necessarily indicative of what they'll become.

One statistic stands out: Patriots fans kick the most rocks.

 

[Nunchucks]

It appears much of this crowd is taking an overly optimistic view of these statistics.

When we think of rookie WR's struggling it's usually a bi-product of getting comfort with the playbook (ie, offensive scheme) and QB chemistry (in play adjustments, etc). Being able to catch the football when you go to the right spot and the QB gives you a good throw is the ONE area that should translate easily from college to pros.

Yet, history tells us that it is not the case.