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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.My grandaughter has seriously improved since last year reducing her drops catching the nerd football. I've been able to increase the velocity of my throws from last years' floaters. Still has problems catching the ball that reaches her right after her break though.
That's arbitrary and looking at it from its most basic premise. You're still not taking into account other factors. What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon? Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?
These things are unaccounted for in these statistics, thus they do not give a clear and concise picture of what caused the drops. Sometimes drops are much the QB's fault as the receiver's, or as much the defender making a great play than just a flat-out easily catchable pass being dropped under no variable circumstance.
If things are these are not factored into the equation, how can they not be taken at face value? The drops are a concern, but they're correctable. So I don't think the issue is these receivers are not sure-handed, I think they're learning as they go along, and overthinking sometimes. With experience these issues will be minimal over time.
I'm looking at it in the long view, rather than wasting my time worrying what happened in the past. What concerns me is what are these guys are going to do in the future.
What are the conditions of the game? How catchable is a slippery wet ball when you're playing in a monsoon?
Or how accurate was said pass when you tried to catch it, and had to contort your entire body just to get your hands on it? Or what was the velocity on the pass when it hit you in the hands?
These things are unaccounted for in these statistics, thus they do not give a clear and concise picture of what caused the drops. Sometimes drops are much the QB's fault as the receiver's, or as much the defender making a great play than just a flat-out easily catchable pass being dropped under no variable circumstance.
Excellent article on Jerry Rice who has the same struggles.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Too Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust
"Rice, the team's top draft pick, had 26 receptions in 11 games, but he also dropped 10 balls, some of them at the worst possible times."
Great article, I posted this a few weeks ago when people started complaining about drops. I remember seeing Rice beat the Giants deep, catch the ball, continue running, and kicking the ball out of his own hands with his knee out of the end zone for a Giant's touchback.
Excellent article on Jerry Rice who has the same struggles.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Too Deep Zone: Jerry Rice, Rookie Bust
"Rice, the team's top draft pick, had 26 receptions in 11 games, but he also dropped 10 balls, some of them at the worst possible times."
Your first point isn't relevant to this discussion and not worth addressing.By this standard, you might as well ignore literally every statistic in existence, because all of them have some element, somewhere, that they don't account for.
Whatever it takes to convince yourself that having the most drops in the league isn't a problem, I guess.
Catch rate is even more subjective because it includes things like passes defensed, bad throws by the QB and balls tipped at the line of scrimmage.
That's a pretty good catch rate for a fat old commentator like Eddie Andelman.
Unless your next claim is that both Thompkins and Dobson are going to be the "next Jerry Rice", this is a meaningless article. Bethel Johnson had drop issues too. How'd it work out for him?
Dobson and Thompkins can run routes other than a 9, and both already have more catches in a season than Johnson ever did.
I think we can safely say that we're all optimistic that they'll both improve their hands over the course of their careers. Just about every player in the league improves after his rookie season.
But how does that help us in 2013? The problem is that right now, in 2013, the Patriots need Dobson and Thompkins to stop dropping the ball with such frequency. If they don't make dramatic progress this season, the Patriots' chances of winning another Super Bowl drop pretty dramatically. There isn't a lot of margin of error left.
I think we can safely say that we're all optimistic that they'll both improve their hands over the course of their careers. Just about every player in the league improves after his rookie season.
But how does that help us in 2013? The problem is that right now, in 2013, the Patriots need Dobson and Thompkins to stop dropping the ball with such frequency. If they don't make dramatic progress this season, the Patriots' chances of winning another Super Bowl drop pretty dramatically. There isn't a lot of margin of error left.
I would value drop percentage over the actual number of drops. Dobson and Thompkins both see a lot of targets and they're not #2 in percentage dropped so that number is flawed.
Come on, man. This site has gone absolutely insane with the comparisons of players to all time greats. Yeah, let's match up Dobson and Thompkins up with the best ever, because that's the likely end point here, and then let's pretend we don't get the point about Bethel Johnson and start talking about route running, as if that's what this is about. :bricks:
It appears much of this crowd is taking an overly optimistic view of these statistics.
When we think of rookie WR's struggling it's usually a bi-product of getting comfort with the playbook (ie, offensive scheme) and QB chemistry (in play adjustments, etc). Being able to catch the football when you go to the right spot and the QB gives you a good throw is the ONE area that should translate easily from college to pros.