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You are right there, but a violation of probation could get him anything from no additional punishment at all to requiring him to check in with his probation officer on a more frequent basis to alcohol rehab to being forced to serve the maximum for his crime. Odds are the judge will give him a light punishment.
The big question, of course, is if it changes the parameters of his deal to receive the jail time next spring.
The judge could send him to jail "now."