Brady, Mankins, Wilfork consuming 35% of Patriots cap

[Sciz]

What are the specifics to allowing him to walk next year, as far as less dead cap hit?

I figured it would be a fair improvement over this year's nonsensical choice of a 12 million dollar dead cap hit, but I wasn't sure how much better it would be.

His overall cap hit goes up by $500k, and his dead money goes down by $4M, so they'd save $2.5M by cutting/trading him next offseason.

 

[Brady2Moss]

who out there would NOT want tom brady to sponsor their product? the guy can make so much MORE through advertisements than through the NEP,

is it legal for Brady to take a HUGE pay cut, and simply recoup his losses from advertisements? lmao



also, looking back, it seems signing mankins to that deal was the wrong move

The main reason Brady won't take a pay cut is because it hurts more people than himself, being a top QB and big in the player's union he cannot take a below market deal and set an example of taking huge discounts. I bet he would love to play for a million dollars and have an elite defense again, but in his mind it is about more than himself. That's my guess.

 

[Wilfork#75]

What are the specifics to allowing him to walk next year, as far as less dead cap hit?

I figured it would be a fair improvement over this year's nonsensical choice of a 12 million dollar dead cap hit, but I wasn't sure how much better it would be.

The way I understand it, next year he will have a total cap hit of $10.5mil ($6.25mil base salary, $4mil prorated bonus and 250K workout bonus). But he still has $8mil of dead cap ($4mil prorated bonus in 2014 and 2015). So cutting him next offseason will only save $2.5mil against the cap. However, if he were to come to camp, then be cut we could spread that remaining dead cap over 2 seasons and save $6.25mil against the cap in 2014 (but this would also leave a cap hit of $4mil in 2015 as well). So basically cutting him next season could result in either a $2.5mil saving or a $6.25mil saving in 2014 with a $4mil cap hit in 2015.

Sorry if that isnt very clear

 

[supafly]

The way I understand it, next year he will have a total cap hit of $10.5mil ($6.25mil base salary, $4mil prorated bonus and 250K workout bonus). But he still has $8mil of dead cap ($4mil prorated bonus in 2014 and 2015). So cutting him next offseason will only save $2.5mil against the cap. However, if he were to come to camp, then be cut we could spread that remaining dead cap over 2 seasons and save $6.25mil against the cap in 2014 (but this would also leave a cap hit of $4mil in 2015 as well). So basically cutting him next season could result in either a $2.5mil saving or a $6.25mil saving in 2014 with a $4mil cap hit in 2015.

Sorry if that isnt very clear

His overall cap hit goes up by $500k, and his dead money goes down by $4M, so they'd save $2.5M by cutting/trading him next offseason.

Much appreciated, fellas.

So as I assumed, the situation does improve next year, just not to the point where it would after 2 more seasons. IIRC, then it gets significantly easier for the team to back out with 2 yrs remaining on the 6 yr deal after the 2014 season.

I'd say that there's a decent chance that we may not be seeing him for the 2015 and 2016 seasons, although his play will certainly dictate that. If he comes back strong from being injured that could go a long way in helping to determine those specifics.

 

[supafly]

As for Elam, he's a darn good Safety and it's an area of need. BB hits on Pro Bowlers in the first round for New England. One can only hope!

See I'm seeing Elam as a sure first rounder myself, although I'm certainly not anything close to a draft guru either. I like the pick and it certainly fills an area of need, although one could argue that we may try and fill it via FA, and then would still have Wilson/Gregory battling it out as the #3 and #4 spots. That may be the best route to take, and would give us significantly better depth in the position for the entire year.

They could also take a FA safety to contribute now and then wait until the mid rounds come up to make their move (assuming they trade down at some point to pick up something in the 4th), addressing other needs in the meantime. Obviously the route they choose in FA will dictate this more clearly.

Aye. Matt Elam with the first pick, hopefully after trading down a few picks to secure others throughout the draft.

So, you feel pretty confident that Elam will still be available at the end of round one, even with a tradedown of a few/several spots which could make him an early round two selection?

I'm not so sure I'm feeling quite as confident about that matter, especially since he's clearly the #2 safety with a rather significant (in my mind anyway) dropoff between he and Reid as the third ranked safety.

Of course some are projecting the kid from Fresno St to be a climber, so he may in theory, take over that #3 spot from Reid, at least the #4 from McDonald (USC).

How do you guys feel about the safety from Fresno State later on in the 2nd round/possibly high 3rd instead? I believe he led the nation in INTs this year, also returning a couple for TD's. He's supposedly physical with decent measurables and one of his bigger knocks was missing his junior year with multiple somewhat serious injuries (dislocated ankle and broken leg).

There may be some better options earlier on, and then we could still lock on to the Fresno kid. I can't remember his damn name though.

 

[Patriot Missile]

See I'm seeing Elam as a sure first rounder myself, although I'm certainly not anything close to a draft guru either. I like the pick and it certainly fills an area of need, although one could argue that we may try and fill it via FA, and then would still have Wilson/Gregory battling it out as the #3 and #4 spots. That may be the best route to take, and would give us significantly better depth in the position for the entire year.

They could also take a FA safety to contribute now and then wait until the mid rounds come up to make their move (assuming they trade down at some point to pick up something in the 4th), addressing other needs in the meantime. Obviously the route they choose in FA will dictate this more clearly.



So, you feel pretty confident that Elam will still be available at the end of round one, even with a tradedown of a few/several spots which could make him an early round two selection?

I'm not so sure I'm feeling quite as confident about that matter, especially since he's clearly the #2 safety with a rather significant (in my mind anyway) dropoff between he and Reid as the third ranked safety.

Of course some are projecting the kid from Fresno St to be a climber, so he may in theory, take over that #3 spot from Reid, at least the #4 from McDonald (USC).

How do you guys feel about the safety from Fresno State later on in the 2nd round/possibly high 3rd instead? I believe he led the nation in INTs this year, also returning a couple for TD's. He's supposedly physical with decent measurables and one of his bigger knocks was missing his junior year with multiple somewhat serious injuries (dislocated ankle and broken leg).

There may be some better options earlier on, and then we could still lock on to the Fresno kid. I can't remember his damn name though.

Phillip Thomas. For all we know he could be the best fit here. Production is off the charts.

My ideal scenario would be draft Cooper out of North Carolina to upgrade the guard position and draft Thomas in the 2nd. Will probably have to move up to get him though as I Doubt he lasts that late. Of course there is always the Reed,Goldson,K Phillips rumors that will grow over the next month.

 

[supafly]

Phillip Thomas. For all we know he could be the best fit here. Production is off the charts.

My ideal scenario would be draft Cooper out of North Carolina to upgrade the guard position and draft Thomas in the 2nd. Will probably have to move up to get him though as I Doubt he lasts that late. Of course there is always the Reed,Goldson,K Phillips rumors that will grow over the next month.

William Moore and Jarius Byrd are certainly 2 more to consider, and they may actually be the best 2 options. Even Delmas who is more of a FS and also has underwhelmed is somewhat of a thought, although likely last on the list of candidates and many may leave him off altogether. I wouldn't mind any of the Reed, Goldson, or Kenny Phillips moves. My concern is that Phillips may actually be the only one who is actually a viable guy who may leave his current team though.

I have actually considered grabbing a seasoned vet like Sheldon Brown and moving him to safety too, which is a thought. He could potentially start or rotate at both secondary positions of CB/S if/when needed, and is a FA of middle/lower tier. In 11 yrs he's only missed one game, so he provides some great durability. He also had a terrific year last season and is likely flying under the radar right now. If not Brown himself, then maybe someone of equal caliber who would be also be reasonable in price. It will be interesting to see how Belichick approaches these moves.

I would definitely agree with you that I'd probably rather take Cooper and then Thomas, while also potentially acquiring an additional pick in the process. Good God, that would be ideal.

I'm actually hoping to retain Donald Thomas for depth at guard too for a reasonable amount. I think that's not entirely necessary in the big picture, but would provide the OL will adequate depth should one of Mankins/Connelly go down. He's one of those FA guys of our own who most aren't thinking about right now due to bigger issues, but he may actually be one of the first guys that Belichick goes after in my opinion.

 

[manxman2601]

Phillip Thomas. For all we know he could be the best fit here. Production is off the charts.

My ideal scenario would be draft Cooper out of North Carolina to upgrade the guard position and draft Thomas in the 2nd. Will probably have to move up to get him though as I Doubt he lasts that late. Of course there is always the Reed,Goldson,K Phillips rumors that will grow over the next month.

Cooper might be better than Warmack in our offense with his elite level mobility (admittedly I'm biased as he's been my favourite prospect since I started looking at this draft). As for safeties, take a look at Jonathan Cyprien who's been a fast climber since the Senior Bowl and JJ Wilcox who's converted from WR. Both might represent better overall value than Elam. Elam's a really fine player but I don't like the value, especially after taking Wilson so high last year.

Edit: Re JJ Wilcox, just found the following Mayock quote:

Mayock said the 2013 NFL Draft features “a great safety class,” and feels Georgia Southern’s J.J. Wilcox closed the gap on Kenny Vaccaro, the top projected safety out of Texas who chose not to attend the Senior Bowl.
Mayock said the 5-11, 214-pound Wilcox has “corner feet with safety size” and can be an immediate starter in the NFL, with the ability to help on special teams. The draft analyst was also impressed with Florida International’s Jonathan Cyprien, a player he said “made money this week.”

http://blog.titansonline.com/2013/0...-safeties-improve-draft-stock-at-senior-bowl/

 

[supafly]

Cooper might be better than Warmack in our offense with his elite level mobility (admittedly I'm biased as he's been my favourite prospect since I started looking at this draft). As for safeties, take a look at Jonathan Cyprien who's been a fast climber since the Senior Bowl and JJ Wilcox who's converted from WR. Both might represent better overall value than Elam. Elam's a really fine player but I don't like the value, especially after taking Wilson so high last year.

Edit: Re JJ Wilcox, just found the following Mayock quote:



Tennessee Titans Football | NFL Network Analysts: Safeties Improve Draft Stock at Senior Bowl

It's great to see some of these guys as candidates into the 2nd/3rd rounds, as it's nice to see the safety depth of this crop living up to all the hype.

That could allow the team to address other issues, go BPA, acquire an additional pick, and still take care of a high profile safety all at the same time.

Some of these guys are making me forget about Elam pretty quickly, but I do like the thought of Cooper at 29.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mankins can do a simple restructure that will only benefit both sides. Converting $5M of his salary into signing bonus means he gets it guaranteed and paid now (rather than guaranteed week 1 and paid over 17 weeks) and it lowers his cap hit by $3.75M.

They can do the same with Wilfork lowering his cap hit by $3M although with only two years remaining it sets him up for a $14.6M cap hit in 2014 (a virtual dead cap cap savings wash). So they would really need to extend the big guy by a year or two and convert the bulk of his 2013 and 2014 salaries into signing bonus while tagging a couple of more $8M salary seasons on the backend. That would save $5M in cap this year and $6M in 2014. The downside would be $15M and $11.5M cap hits in 2015-2016 and dead cap $10.6 if he were cut in 2015. If he were still playing at the same level that 2015 cap hit could be lowered via simple restructure that would shift $4M in dead cap to 2016. At which time he would become a decision to make as his cap savings and dead cap hit would be a wash. Unless he were willing to take a salary cut at age 35 to play out the string and finish his career here (which is entirely possible).

Brady can't really be restructured because while they could save $7M this year it would set him up for a $28.8M cap hit in 2014. They need to extend him this year adding 3-4 seasons onto his existing deal. Half of what he is owed is already guaranteed and the other half will be at the end of 2013. So give him that money up front as part of a new signing bonus/guarantee structure (guaranteeing $45M almost $30M of which is already accounted for) and tack on 3-4 more seasons at $20M in new money salary/roster bonus combo (which would give the NFLPA nothing to gripe about).

On a 4 year extension you would have an empty amortization year into which to restructure if needed or a no dead cap/all cap savings year (as is the case in Mankins deal) if by 2018 approaching 41 he opts to walk away. If he walks away approaching 40 in 2017 you would only have a $4-6M dead cap against $14-16M in cap savings. And FWIW that deal because of being tacked on to his remaining deal would average $20M in new money but only $18M in total average (giving Robert something to crow about). Considering where QB averages may be heading, that's a team friendly deal. It would save them roughly $10M against the cap in 2013 and close to that again in 2014 if they go the option bonus in year two route again.

They can easily free up $18M+ just on those three with little or no downside beyond will Vince continue to play at a high level for another 3 years.

 

[supafly]

Mankins can do a simple restructure that will only benefit both sides. Converting $5M of his salary into signing bonus means he gets it guaranteed and paid now (rather than guaranteed week 1 and paid over 17 weeks) and it lowers his cap hit by $3.75M.

Which is coincidentally also the going rate for high profile porno films these days....

They can do the same with Wilfork lowering his cap hit by $3M although with only two years remaining it sets him up for a $14.6M cap hit in 2014 (a virtual dead cap cap savings wash). So they would really need to extend the big guy by a year or two and convert the bulk of his 2013 and 2014 salaries into signing bonus while tagging a couple of more $8M salary seasons on the backend. That would save $5M in cap this year and $6M in 2014. The downside would be $15M and $11.5M cap hits in 2015-2016 and dead cap $10.6 if he were cut in 2015. If he were still playing at the same level that 2015 cap hit could be lowered via simple restructure that would shift $4M in dead cap to 2016. At which time he would become a decision to make as his cap savings and dead cap hit would be a wash. Unless he were willing to take a salary cut at age 35 to play out the string and finish his career here (which is entirely possible).

Brady can't really be restructured because while they could save $7M this year it would set him up for a $28.8M cap hit in 2014. They need to extend him this year adding 3-4 seasons onto his existing deal. Half of what he is owed is already guaranteed and the other half will be at the end of 2013. So give him that money up front as part of a new signing bonus/guarantee structure (guaranteeing $45M almost $30M of which is already accounted for) and tack on 3-4 more seasons at $20M in new money salary/roster bonus combo (which would give the NFLPA nothing to gripe about).

On a 4 year extension you would have an empty amortization year into which to restructure if needed or a no dead cap/all cap savings year (as is the case in Mankins deal) if by 2018 approaching 41 he opts to walk away. If he walks away approaching 40 in 2017 you would only have a $4-6M dead cap against $14-16M in cap savings. And FWIW that deal because of being tacked on to his remaining deal would average $20M in new money but only $18M in total average (giving Robert something to crow about). Considering where QB averages may be heading, that's a team friendly deal. It would save them roughly $10M against the cap in 2013 and close to that again in 2014 if they go the option bonus in year two route again.

They can easily free up $18M+ just on those three with little or no downside beyond will Vince continue to play at a high level for another 3 years.

Thanks as always, MLR. It's good to know the ins/outs (I may or may not still have the porno comment on my mind) of these individual deals, and the pros vs cons aspect of what the restucturings would bring.

I'll have to be honest, I didn't expect Brady's potential extension to be quite as long as you have here. I would assume that is going to be the best or only way to do that then? I was ass-uming more of a 2-3 yr extension.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Which is coincidentally also the going rate for high profile porno films these days....




Thanks as always, MLR. It's good to know the ins/outs (I may or may not still have the porno comment on my mind) of these individual deals, and the pros vs cons aspect of what the restucturings would bring.

I'll have to be honest, I didn't expect Brady's potential extension to be quite as long as you have here. I would assume that is going to be the best or only way to do that then? I was ass-uming more of a 2-3 yr extension.

You need to add at least 3 years to make the amortization work (5 years). A 4th year allows for further amortization after this season. The cap is all about flexibility. The final year salary wouldn't be guaranteed (at least until he gets there) so really there is nothing to be gained by going short unless they think he will fall off a cliff and try to cling to his deal. Kraft has already stated he thinks Tom will know when it's time to go (and not be looking to screw them for one more season of paychecks he can't earn). I agree. And his dead cap wouldn't even matter in the last two years since whomever replaces him will be working for peanuts the first 2-3 seasons.

They should have given Welker a 4-5 year deal back in 2011 for the same reason, only I think they just can't fathom how he keeps getting up off the turf and jogging back to the huddle...

 

[Kontradiction]

See I'm seeing Elam as a sure first rounder myself, although I'm certainly not anything close to a draft guru either. I like the pick and it certainly fills an area of need, although one could argue that we may try and fill it via FA, and then would still have Wilson/Gregory battling it out as the #3 and #4 spots. That may be the best route to take, and would give us significantly better depth in the position for the entire year.

They could also take a FA safety to contribute now and then wait until the mid rounds come up to make their move (assuming they trade down at some point to pick up something in the 4th), addressing other needs in the meantime. Obviously the route they choose in FA will dictate this more clearly.



So, you feel pretty confident that Elam will still be available at the end of round one, even with a tradedown of a few/several spots which could make him an early round two selection?

I'm not so sure I'm feeling quite as confident about that matter, especially since he's clearly the #2 safety with a rather significant (in my mind anyway) dropoff between he and Reid as the third ranked safety.

Of course some are projecting the kid from Fresno St to be a climber, so he may in theory, take over that #3 spot from Reid, at least the #4 from McDonald (USC).

How do you guys feel about the safety from Fresno State later on in the 2nd round/possibly high 3rd instead? I believe he led the nation in INTs this year, also returning a couple for TD's. He's supposedly physical with decent measurables and one of his bigger knocks was missing his junior year with multiple somewhat serious injuries (dislocated ankle and broken leg).

There may be some better options earlier on, and then we could still lock on to the Fresno kid. I can't remember his damn name though.

As of right now, most mocks have Elam graded as a high second rounder.

 

[1960Pats]

The main reason Brady won't take a pay cut is because it hurts more people than himself, being a top QB and big in the player's union he cannot take a below market deal and set an example of taking huge discounts. I bet he would love to play for a million dollars and have an elite defense again, but in his mind it is about more than himself. That's my guess.

I think that's a fair assessment, although there's no way of knowing how willing Brady is to take one on the chin for anybody else, or the amount of actual pressure that he would get from the NFLPA.

 

[kennyb]

Cut Mankins ass. Overrated and so overpaid. Sign Donald Thomas at 1/20 the cap hit. Ultimatum to Logan, you either restructure or take a hike, you are not worth this kind of money, we can use that money where it's needed.

Pro Bowl? What a joke.

It might be worth taking a 2M hit on him. Just to get rid of his super high contract.

But I doubt they do. If they could get something in a trade, maybe, but I doubt anyone wants his contract even without paying himi the signing bonus.

So yeah, given that no one would trade for him even without having to pay his bonus, that almost by definition means they overpaid him.

There's a limit to the number of big money contracts a team can have. Almost by definition, if you sign one, you've failed. You've failed to have enough guys on their cheap rookie contracts. If they hadn't whiffed on Bussey and the bust from Penn state so badly, they could have let mankins walk and have had a replacement ready. Thomas looked pretty good, he's certainly not 7M less good than Mankins. Sorry, but it's the truth.

 

[kennyb]

Which is coincidentally also the going rate for high profile porno films these days....




Thanks as always, MLR. It's good to know the ins/outs (I may or may not still have the porno comment on my mind) of these individual deals, and the pros vs cons aspect of what the restucturings would bring.

I'll have to be honest, I didn't expect Brady's potential extension to be quite as long as you have here. I would assume that is going to be the best or only way to do that then? I was ass-uming more of a 2-3 yr extension.

Brady needs to completely redo his contract. Change some of his salary into incentives, iei win the SB and get 3M. There's also no reason he needs to insist on being paid like a top QB, he'd make more money in endorsements if he won another SB and it would be easier to do wtih him making less money. That and being worth 100M or so already, why would he care about a few million dollars?

And no, I don't think he'd not redo it "for the good of the NLFPA". It's not like money is pocketed by Kraft. I don't think that really makes sense.

 

[Spiral]

If you're looking for cap savings, you need to look past Brady, Mankins, Wilfork and Mayo. Right after Mayo is Lloyd, with $5M in new money due him in 2013, and at #7 is Gostkowski with a $2.5M 2013 salary and a $3.4M cap number. After he injured his leg a couple of years ago, Gostkowski is no better than an average NFL kicker. Lloyd's value has been discussed elsewhere on this site. With a flat cap for the next two years, the Patriots are really going to be assessing the value of each player and contract. Those two contracts don't seem to be good values, IMO.

 

[BradyFTW!]

My preference is for Mankins to return to full health and (if he's around for the Patriots) take Matt Elam at their pick. That's a best of both worlds scenario.

A hard-hitting, under-sized SS who struggles in coverage and is a little bit slow for the position? I feel like we've already been down that path, and it didn't work out. If the Pats take Elam in the first, I'll go ballistic. There will be better NFL safeties available in later rounds.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. As far as the OP goes, its really a non-story. Check any team, especially one who has a top 10 QB, and you will find them with 3 players who take up 30% or more of their cap. The fact that the story was headlined, like someone found out the Pats had cancer and were doomed, was just ridiculous.

2. The story behind the story is that after the 'big 3' the Pats are once again the image of what passes for the middle class with 17 players making aprox. $1-3MM, and only 6 making more than that.

3. Compare that to the Jets situation where they have 7 players who are taking up $80MM of their cap space. Conversely the Pats go 22 deep before they reach that $80MM number (btw - all this is according to Jason)

4. Any talk of moving Mankins is dumb. Makins is here for the next two years. In those 2 years, if healthy, he's going to be a top LG, who is earning top money. However AFTER 2014, I doubt he's with the team. At THAT point he'll be on the down side with too big a salary and little consequence to release him. Until then, for good or bad, he's going to be a Patriot.

5. Mo did a great job in showing how, in 3 very realistic and reasonable scenarios the Pats can be $35+MM under the cap for this year and not see the affects until 2015. Normally I'd caution against this kind of maneuver because you eventually have to pay the piper and usually when you do, it gets ugly.

HOWEVER given the reality of a closing window with Brady, maybe THIS is the time to make a 2 year commitment to maximizing the talent and depth and be willing to pay the price down the road. Based on what I understand it takes at MOST 2 seasons to clear up cap issues. I'd be willing to pay that price to end Brady's career with a REAL shot at a couple of Lombardi's, even if it meant a season or two at 5-11.

6. Lets say the Pats do the 3 restructures/extensions. I think the best use of their money would be to resign Welker (but only if he agrees to something within the $7-8MM/yr range) and Volmer, let Talib walk, send McCourty back to CB, and sign one of the top S FA's (the guy from Buffalo would be my top pick)

Those are the 3 major signings - But you structure those contracts such that none of them will have a cap impact of more than $5MM in the first 2 years (for example the Jets signed Holmes to a $50MM/5yr contract, but it was structured to have cap hits of $1.4MM and 3.5MM in the first 2 years, so $5MM would be easy.

Now with those major signings taking only about $15MM of the cap space for the next 2 years the Pats will have plenty of money to throw at any number of "middle class FA's" like Edelman, Thomas, Arrington, and Woodhead or the like.

7. Then you use the draft to draft the best DB that's on your board at 29, whether he's a CB or S. You use the next pick on a WR, preferably a big one. Normally I would have wanted a DLman with one of the top picks, but Armstead looks to be as good a prospect as any DLman who might be available at 29.

Still contrary to the common wisdom, I'm happy with our OL and I assume we will resign at least one of Thomas/Volmer, so unless we let both walk, I'd rather not use one of the top 2 picks on an Offensive lineman, ESPECIALLY a OG

8.BOTTOM LINE - Even though it goes against everything I believe in cap management. The reality is that with an improving defense, and the potential for a fading Brady, NOW is the time to invest in getting our next set of Lombardi's, even though we know that there will be a difficult price to pay in 2-3 years. After a 15 year run like we've lived through,. it will be well worth the pain. JMHO.

 

[Kontradiction]

A hard-hitting, under-sized SS who struggles in coverage and is a little bit slow for the position? I feel like we've already been down that path, and it didn't work out. If the Pats take Elam in the first, I'll go ballistic. There will be better NFL safeties available in later rounds.

Elam doesn't struggle in coverage nearly as badly as the scouts have made it out to be. With good coaching, he'd be pretty good in coverage. McCourty is already the safety that has the range. Pairing up a hitter that can also take on the run with him is a good thing. Elam is not Pat Chung 2.0.