Honestly, how is the spread 9.5?

[Ring 6]

Vegas is begging people to bet on the Ravens. It's usually better to run the other way when that's the case. Because they think there's a chance NE blows them out.

No. Vegas is 'begging' people to bet evenly on both sides.
Vegas doesnt try to get people to make losing bets, they try to get the money even, and collect 10% with no risk.

 

[aluminum seats]

Vegas doesn't set the line based on film study, past matchups, or thorough analysis of how the game might unfold. Their intent is to come up with a line that is likely to result on a similar number of bets being placed on both teams. That's it. They try to gauge public perception of the matchup, not the football side of it.

No offense to you in particular, but every time someone questions a line that seems out of whack someone else feels compelled to explain how/why lines are set. I think it's pretty well understood what Vegas is trying to achieve.

 

[aluminum seats]

No. Vegas is 'begging' people to bet evenly on both sides.

You're missing his point. This line clearly is inviting money to come in on Baltimore.

 

[PatsDeb]

I don't want to jinx the Pats (no jinx, no jinx, no jinx) but I don't think the spread is too high.

 

[RodThePat]

No offense to you in particular, but every time someone questions a line that seems out of whack someone else feels compelled to explain how/why lines are set. I think it's pretty well understood what Vegas is trying to achieve.

Apparently it isn't because threads like this, full of football analysis as to why the line shouldn't be so low/high, appear on this board pretty much every month.

 

[mgteich]

I suspect that you said the same last week.

i would bet ravens at that spread...9.5 is wayyy too high

 

[aluminum seats]

What does what a bunch of other players wearing the jerseys in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 have to do with this game?



Again, those were different teams. Surely you don't think those results have any impact on this game do you?

Not sure why you're taking this incredulous ("Surely?") stance. They might be "different teams" but these two teams, with many of the same players, have a history of playing close games. This history would play into the considerations of the betting public.

 

[aluminum seats]

Apparently it isn't because threads like this, full of football analysis as to why the line shouldn't be so low/high, appear on this board pretty much every month.

That's because typically the CW football analysis is a significant factor in the public perception and the subsequent line.

 

[mgteich]

This Ravens team is not the top defensive team with a top running game that they have been in past years. This team relies on the long ball as their primary weapon. Their defense is old and much slower than in the past.

Could Flacco beat our secondary, with our front not having enough pressure on him? Sure, it could happen. However, it is the assessment of the bettors (those who put down real money) that we are a touchdown plus home field advantage better than BALT. I tend to agree.

 

[mgteich]

This should be a sticky. Unbalanced books are costly.

No. Vegas is 'begging' people to bet evenly on both sides.
Vegas doesnt try to get people to make losing bets, they try to get the money even, and collect 10% with no risk.

 

[Deus Irae]

I thought it might go up to 10. The country bets the Patriots, and the Ravens have won ugly.

 

[condon84]

The line tells me that the general betting public thinks the Pats are gonna roll them. Vegas thinks giving the Ravens 9.5 points is the only way people will bet. There's no other explanation.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

I suspect that you said the same last week.

not last week...looks at the previous meetings of these teams...9.5 is a lot

Sorry i wouldn't bet the pats at 9.5...didn't know i would offend this many people

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm betting that Vegas thinking is that the Pats fast break offense will wear out the Ravens, leading to a blowout victory. This scenario is certainly possible. But according to Vegas to them it is likely. I am thinking a lot of people will bet money on the Ravens because 10 points is a lot to cover in a football game unless the other team is totally outclassed.

 

[Deus Irae]

not last week...looks at the previous meetings of these teams...9.5 is a lot

Sorry i wouldn't bet the pats at 9.5...didn't know i would offend this many people

Earlier this year, with the Patriots struggling out of the gate (they lost to Arizona the week before), it was a pick'em game decided by a last second field goal, and that was in Baltimore. The Patriots have gotten much better since then, and the game's in New England. So, you add in the home field bump, and I'm not sure why you think 9.5 is particularly high.

 

[wistahpatsfan]

1. It doesn't matter what these teams did to each other over the years. Players come and go. Wierd things happen (just ask Ravens special teams of 2012) and players are missing on IR. There is no trend that counts Sunday.

2. Vegas exists to make money and will set whatever spread they think will benefit them the most. It is not necessarily a reflection on the actual score difference...especially 5 days before the game. The true spread, which the bookies are incredibly accurate on most of the time, is the one you get 1 hr before kickoff.

3. 9 1/2 is not crazy unless you don't think the Pats -right now- aren't a touchdown and a fieldgoal better than this Ravens roster. I think they definitely are.

 

[patsfanincleveland]

No offense to you in particular, but every time someone questions a line that seems out of whack someone else feels compelled to explain how/why lines are set. I think it's pretty well understood what Vegas is trying to achieve.

since the OP asked the question, ya might want to ask him why he doesn't get it.

He's just answering the question.

 

[aluminum seats]

The true spread, which the bookies are incredibly accurate on most of the time, is the one you get 1 hr before kickoff.

What do you mean by "the true spread?"

 

[denverpatsfan]

The line is down to 9 points with my bookie.

Even with the cold weather and altitude the Ravens played better than the Broncos during the 2nd half and overtimes of that game. I really don't think "old and slow" is a valid description of this Ravens team. They have always given the Pats a tough game.

If you want bet and think the Ravens have a chance then take the money line. +320

You could win $320 with a $100 bet if the Ravens win.

 

[aluminum seats]

since the OP asked the question, ya might want to ask him why he doesn't get it.

He's just answering the question.

You might be right, but I don't think the OP was saying he doesn't understand point spreads. I think the question is why is the spread 9.5, when I think most would have honestly guessed before the line was announced that it would be at least a couple of points less than that. (Now that it's out, everyone's an expert and would have pegged it within a half point of that, of course.)