Honestly, how is the spread 9.5?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Jan 16, 2013.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

    I really would like an explanation for this, considering:

    Last six games, dating back to 2007:

    12- Ravens 31, Patriots 30
    11*- Patriots 23, Ravens 20
    10- Patriots 23, Ravens 20 (OT)
    09*- Ravens 33, Patriots 14
    09- Patriots 27, Ravens 21
    07- Patriots 27, Ravens 24

    Even with a bunch of powerhouse offenses, including the '07 team, the Patriots have only once beat the Ravens by more than a field goal, and that was still by less than a touchdown.

    -In case anyone hasn't heard yet, Rob Gronkowski is out. Not that the Pats can't play effective football and win, but it seems like a near fantasy that they are going to score 30+ and likewise hold the Ravens to under 20, with the way the Ravens have been playing. They can do this if they get a lot of breaks and turnovers, but that should not be factored into a point spread.

    I do like the Patriots chances to win, and I wouldn't be shocked if they covered, but from an analytical side, looking at "if you played this game 100 times..." I can't find an explanation for a spread this large.

    Can anyone figure this out?
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  2. MossWelkowski

    MossWelkowski Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    #24 Jersey

    Patriots are due for blowout against them
  3. The_Riddler

    The_Riddler 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    I agree, I don't bet, but if I did, the Ravens and 9.5 looks like almost guaranteed money. I do think the Pats will eek one out, but man, this game is going to be really tight.
  4. Wax Frog

    Wax Frog In the Starting Line-Up

    #87 Jersey

    I'd like to see the Ravens defensive rankings for those years (too lazy to look up) but maybe age and wear are expected to finally catch up with them?
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  5. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Butler Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

    #95 Jersey

    i would bet ravens at that spread...9.5 is wayyy too high
  6. aluminum seats

    aluminum seats In the Starting Line-Up

    It's an excellent question, one that I haven't really seen explained in the few places i poked around. Also, as far as I know, the line hasn't moved.

    The history of the rivalry would suggest no more than maybe a 6 point line, tops. Gronk is out. The Ravens are healthier than they were. Your take on it--that the Pats certainly COULD cover, but the bet should be on the Ravens, seems obvious. It objectively makes no sense.

    Another way to look at it is that the line is an extremely positive sign for the Pats.
  7. MossWelkowski

    MossWelkowski Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    #24 Jersey

    Why don't you put a grand in it then?
  8. patsfaninpa

    patsfaninpa In the Starting Line-Up

    Vegas is begging people to bet on the Ravens. It's usually better to run the other way when that's the case. Because they think there's a chance NE blows them out.
  9. dannydyn

    dannydyn PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    3 straight games for the Ravens, and one after they had to play a double-overtime on the road, is sub-temps, at high altitude. This can't do good to an aging defense. As a matter of fact, I'm surprised none of their aging players ended up being carted off the field.

    The Ray Lewis retirement speech and dance will carry them two plays into the game. After that, it's all they got left. No one knows what physical condition they are in (respiratory wise) after playing at those temps. Half their squad could be down with a serious cold or other respiratory problems for all we know. They may not miss practice for that, but trying to run around huffing and puffing with a stuffed nose, shortness of breath, sore throat, and difficulty breathing, can't be good either.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  10. Nunchucks

    Nunchucks In the Starting Line-Up

    This is by far the weakest Ravens defense we have ever seen and the Ravens offense lives and dies by the deep ball.

    This is the best Patriots defense we have seen in a number of years and the offense is extremely versatile and incorporates one of the top running games in the league.

    So, you guys tell me...why is the spread so high?
  11. RodThePat

    RodThePat In the Starting Line-Up

    Vegas doesn't set the line based on film study, past matchups, or thorough analysis of how the game might unfold. Their intent is to come up with a line that is likely to result on a similar number of bets being placed on both teams. That's it. They try to gauge public perception of the matchup, not the football side of it.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  12. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    It's good that you don't bet then, because if you think anything against the spread looks like almost guaranteed money then you wouldn't last a day, no offense.
  13. Sicilian

    Sicilian Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    This is an important point that no one seems to ever remember. It has very little to do with what is likely to transpire, and more to do with providing incentives for the casual fans to pick the perceived underdog.
  14. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    While I do think the spread is a bit high, the 2012 Ravens defense does not resemble previous versions. What happened in previous years has no effect on what will happen Sunday. The 2012 versions of both teams are different from the 2007, 2009, 2010, and even 2011 versions.

    The line is generally set to get an equal amount of money wagered on either side; I don't think there is much of a difference in the number of Pats fans (or haters) that gamble versus the number of Ravens fans (or haters) that gamble. Maybe it's as simple as Vegas handicappers having seen enough of the two teams and looked at enough stats to honestly think that's where the line should be?

    Pure speculation: maybe Vegas is trying to sucker people into going with the Ravens, and looking to make a buck themselves?

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

    #12 Jersey

    It's probably too high considering the mangnitude of the game and the rivalry but, this is a different Patriots team and a different Ravens team than before. By far the best Patriots defense Flacco/Rice have faced. The most vulnerable Ravens D Brady has ever faced (maybe not by much depending on just how close to full strength Lewis/Suggs/Ngata are).

    If I were to guess I'd say the Pats win by double digits, but I wouldn't put money on it either way.
  16. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    I think the spread is based on the probability that we can blow any game wide open at our home turf. It would be that way against any team coming into Foxboro, and I think it has been all year. It's no disrespect on the Ravens.
  17. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

    No Jersey Selected

    I'm betting small on this one. $100 for the Patriots to cover in a friendly bet with one of my friends. IMO, the reason the spread is 9.5 is because the Ravens defense is old and has played more snaps than any defense left in the postseason.
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  18. Brady_to_Moss

    Brady_to_Moss Butler Island is here PatsFans.com Supporter

    #95 Jersey

    because i don't have a grand to bet?
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    What does what a bunch of other players wearing the jerseys in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011 have to do with this game?

    Again, those were different teams. Surely you don't think those results have any impact on this game do you?

    The way they have been playing is losing 4 of their last 7.
    They are a below average defense and we average 35 points a game.

    But the answer is that the people who are making bets on the game are placing roughly even amounts on both teams at 9.5 points.

    The pointspread has nothing to do with football analysis is has to do with how people are betting. At more than 9.5 most money would flow to Bmore, and 9 or less most money would flow to New England.
  20. Ivan

    Ivan Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

    #75 Jersey

    This game is a really bad match-up for the ravens and a great match-up for NE.

    1) It's a home Championship game, those obviously favor the home team greatly and in this case it allows the Patriots to run a their fast break offense against an old tired Ravens defense that has been on the field way too much lately. The Patriots are unbeaten in these games in their history.

    2) The defensive match-ups pit the Patriots strengths against the Ravens weakness. There is no way the ravens LB's can stay with Welker and Hernandez and Lloyd should have a really good day against Williams. Additionally the Patriots run game has improved dramatically while the Ravens run D is a shell of its former self.

    3) Ball control. Imo this is the biggest reason for giving a big edge to the Patriots. Joe Flacco is not a QB who is going to move the Ravens down the field with one first down after another, rather he is going to get a first down or two and go deep hoping for big plays. This plays right into the Patriots hands as the best way to beat the Patriots is to limit Brady's drive opportunities to less than 10, anything over that and he is going to hang 35 on the defense. If the Patriots have a big TOP advantage, which they should, then the only way Baltimore beats them is if Brady has a terrible day and/or the RB's cough the ball up repeatedly. In other words the Ravens are going to have to force a number of TO's or hope the Patriots fall apart.

    The Ravens can win this week, any team that gets this far can, however the way this has set up works entirely in the Patriots favor. from home team falling right into their laps to the match-ups on the field this week this has set up perfectly for the Patriots to get themselves another shot at a Lombardi.

    Patriots 35 Ravens 17
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