Spread on Pats to Win Sunday Rising (fast)

[shmessy]

I'm expecting a closer game, kind of like the home game vs. GB late in 2010. Though our offense was good I don't think they were 42 points good on Monday. Got a couple penalties extending drives, one being questionable. The bomb to Stallworth who's no longer here. The fumbles bouncing right to us. And SF's defense is better than Houston's IMO. With each week Gronk is out it's going to be harder and harder to stay potent. I expect our O to struggle a bit in this one but I see us pulling it out with a solid D performance.

Since Gronk went out, they have played 3 tough defenses (yes, even the Jets have a decent defense).

They have averaged 38 points per game during this stretch.

SF is the best defense in football, but if the Pats can score 20 this Sunday night, they'll win.

If the national night game stage in Foxboro was too big for Schaub, there's a good chance it will be for Kaepernick.

 

[PatriotSeven]

I think they should have have been able to take that FG. Never seen that kind of intentional grounding call, throwing it out of the back of the endzone in my years watching the game. But w/e guess Brady is the only one who gets called for grounding these days lol.

That intentional grounding in the superbowl was the big surprise to me. I just rarely see it called when a QB throws it through traffic in the middle of the field. That was the first time noticing a call like that for me. I'm not even sure how you can objectively decide its intentional. I guess maybe because referees know Brady doesn't miss so if he misses a target by that much, it must be intentional. It all started there though. And it does seem like it has been called on Brady more than any of the other quarterbacks I watched this year. Quite disproportionate.

Having said that, Tom needs to clean it up now that he knows he will be called for it.

 

[shmessy]

yeah, especially since this is not a team to look beyond. Kaepernick scares the **** out of me; I don't like QB's who prolong the play out of the pocket, even if, as RGIII and Michael Vick have reminded us this year, their NFL longevity might be brief...all I care is that we have to play the dude this week.

The Belichick Pats are 3-0 against Vick, 2-0 against Tebow, 3-0 against McNabb and 2-1 against McNair (loss coming during the inglorious 2002 season) and 2-0 against Kordell Stewart. Just this year, they handled Locker and Tannehill easily.

Those are the running threat QB's that quickest come to mind.

Any others? Because, just based on that (admittedly an incomplete list), I'm unconcerned about that threat to a Belichick defense.

 

[BradyFTW!]

They will get burned again. I expect a close game. Pats have lost to Seattle and Arizona this season. Can they beat an NFC West team? Tough defenses.

Didn't seem to have much trouble with the Rams' D.

 

[GrogansArmy]

Yeah I was in Vegas this past weekend and could have gotten 3 on Saturday but wasn't ready to place that bet yet so I waited. On my way out of town on Monday it went to 3.5 and I didn't want to bet it then only to get bitten by the hook and then after MNF it shot up to 6. Could go up to 7 by game day which would be a great middle opportunity (bet both sides and hope the Pats win by 4-6 points and win both bets).

I'm not too familiar with sports betting. Could you explain in greater detail how you could win both bets if the spread goes to 7? I would think that if you bet pats, the pats would have to win by 8 for you to win the bet, no? But you're saying that if the pats win by 4-6 points, you still win. Sorry if its a dumb question, just would like to understand sports betting better and maybe try it myself some day.

 

[SoCal Bong]

I'm not too familiar with sports betting. Could you explain in greater detail how you could win both bets if the spread goes to 7? I would think that if you bet pats, the pats would have to win by 8 for you to win the bet, no? But you're saying that if the pats win by 4-6 points, you still win. Sorry if its a dumb question, just would like to understand sports betting better and maybe try it myself some day.

Say you bet $110 to win $100 last Saturday at Pats -3.
Also say that the line moves up to 7 (hasn't yet and probably won't) and you bet $110 to win $100 on the 49ers +7. You now have two independent bets and there is no result where you can lose both.

If the Pats win by 8 or more, you win $100 and lose $110 for a net $10 loss
If the the Pats win by exactly 7, you win $100 and push (get your money back) for a $100 net win
If the Pats win by 4, 5 or 6 points, you win both bets for a $200 win.
If the Pats win by exactly 3, you push and win $100 for a $100 net win.
If the Pats lose outright or win by just 1 or 2 points, you lose $110 and win $100 for a net loss of $10.

Your largest likelihood is to lose $10 but you have a chance to win $100 or $200 so when the line moves enough, especially over key #s (3, 6, 7, etc) it can be a worthwhile risk. These opportunities don't come up often but they do happen. The difficult part is projecting a line that is likely to have a major move. It usually open happens when an injury status to a key player surprises the consensus but weather can also do the same thing to a point total.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

The Belichick Pats are 3-0 against Vick, 2-0 against Tebow, 3-0 against McNabb and 2-1 against McNair (loss coming during the inglorious 2002 season) and 2-0 against Kordell Stewart. Just this year, they handled Locker and Tannehill easily.

Those are the running threat QB's that quickest come to mind.

Any others? Because, just based on that (admittedly an incomplete list), I'm unconcerned about that threat to a Belichick defense.

From your lips to God's ears...However, none of those games were played by this D, this season; in fact some of them were with very different, and even classic, Patriots' D's.

To the legitimate argument that the core of this D beat Tebow twice last year, I think Kaepernick is much more dangerous and multi-faceted than Tebow. But, don't get me wrong, I hope you are right!!!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Not so fast. There's plenty of mediots predicting the 9ers to prevail this Sunday!

San Francisco 49ers: Beating the New England Patriots Is Easier Than You Think | Bleacher Report

 

[TheBeers]

The line is now Pats -4.5 which is around where it opened. I think it'll end up close to that unless Gronk is playing or maybe the forecast changes for the worse. The line did jump last week quite a bit and the Pats still covered. I can see a lot of people taking the points thinking this will be a close game.

 

[mgcolby]

My spread calculator has the pats winning by 2.3 points

Pats: 26.8
49ers: 24.5

Before anyone asks: Last week it had the Pats winning by 10.5

Pats: 36.7
Hou: 26.2

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Late Money Movement on SF@NEP inconclusive this week

Some of you will recall that last week, the Houses had to kick the spread from -4 Patriots to around -6 Patriots in the last couple of days before the HOU game because so much money had been laid on the Pats.

This week, the spread has gone in the other direction and was lowered over the week from -6 Patriots last Tuesday to -4 1/2 Patriots yesterday. Today the Houses moved it again to -4 Pats. That's not a big enough movement to warrant too many conclusions, but it does suggest that the late money, usually from the sharps, has been going more in the direction of SF.

That has, of course, nothing to do with what happens on the field tonight, but a couple hundred million dollars will be bet on tonight's game, so it's not completely trivial either.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/[email protected]/date/12-16-12/time/2030#BT

 

[BananaRepublican]

I'm also probably the only person on this Board who is NOT happy about playing @JAX next week.

Have you been following this team lately? They're going to break the scoreboard and then Gronk will spike and detonate the entire stadium.

 

[BananaRepublican]

The difficult part is projecting a line that is likely to have a major move.

Which depends on the bookies figuring the public sentiment accurately when they set the initial line. So far they have been underestimating the impact to the American psyche of a "Oh, no, not another 580 point season" Patriots offense.

I wonder if they'll ever get it right this year. Honestly, I think the Pats have freaked out a lot of bettors.

What will really freak out the betting world is if the Patriots kill the spread again tonight. That will make heads explode about how to set the line versus Jacksonville and whomever follows. If you were those guys how would you set a spread against the Jags? It's ridiculous. Nothing makes sense and that line could move by a ton if Joe Bettor is shaking in his boots to take the points.

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

A big "yep" there. I'm nervous about Kaepernick.

I'm also probably the only person on this Board who is NOT happy about playing @JAX next week. Assuming they lose to Miami, nobody in their right mind wants to play a 2--12 team in December in what will be its Super Bowl. It is still an NFL team.

Pretty sure about that!

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Which depends on the bookies figuring the public sentiment accurately when they set the initial line. So far they have been underestimating the impact to the American psyche of a "Oh, no, not another 580 point season" Patriots offense.

I wonder if they'll ever get it right this year. Honestly, I think the Pats have freaked out a lot of bettors.

What will really freak out the betting world is if the Patriots kill the spread again tonight. That will make heads explode about how to set the line versus Jacksonville and whomever follows. If you were those guys how would you set a spread against the Jags? It's ridiculous. Nothing makes sense and that line could move by a ton if Joe Bettor is shaking in his boots to take the points.

Agreed just about on everything you say. But, the money that moves spreads in the last day usually comes from heavy hitters dropping bets in the mid five and low six figure range.