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Spread on Pats to Win Sunday Rising (fast)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatsFanSince74, Dec 12, 2012.

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  1. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looks like Vegas is "once burned, twice shy" when it comes to spreads on late season Patriots games in Foxboro.

    You might recall that last week most houses waited until Sunday or Monday to lift a 3 1/2 or 4 point spread to 6 points when, as was reported in the media, 55% of the money was being put on the Patriots.

    This week, it's only taken them a day to lift the spread from 3 points up to 5 1/2 and even 6 points (MGM Mirage for the latter); I think a few casinos lost some serious bucks on the game last week.
  2. Double TE

    Double TE The Best in the World PatsFans.com Supporter

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    QB Driven league. You want to bet on a TB or CK? Hmmmmmmm.....
  3. denverpatsfan

    denverpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They will get burned again. I expect a close game. Pats have lost to Seattle and Arizona this season. Can they beat an NFC West team? Tough defenses.
  4. Double TE

    Double TE The Best in the World PatsFans.com Supporter

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    They lost early in the year? Different team now and it was the D not the O that lost the game that was actually IN Seattle.

    Not sure I see a correlation here.
  5. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rookie

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    Yeah I was in Vegas this past weekend and could have gotten 3 on Saturday but wasn't ready to place that bet yet so I waited. On my way out of town on Monday it went to 3.5 and I didn't want to bet it then only to get bitten by the hook and then after MNF it shot up to 6. Could go up to 7 by game day which would be a great middle opportunity (bet both sides and hope the Pats win by 4-6 points and win both bets).
  6. JMC00

    JMC00 Rookie

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    beat St Louis 45-7. Who took San Fran to the distance twice tying them once and beating the other

    Arizona- lost on a debatable holding call and a missed FG

    Seattle- should have taken the FG before the end of the first half
  7. denverpatsfan

    denverpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Agreed but this isn't Alex Smith they are facing either. CK is the type of rookie that gives this team fits. I hope I am wrong and it's another enjoyable blow-out but I think it will be a tough game.
  8. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Let's face it. But for 4 points in Sept-Oct, this is a 13-0 team that just crushed an 11-1 team while missing the GREATEST TIGHT END WHO EVER LIVED.

    Anything can happen, but with this running game, this team could be right up there with the 2004 and 2007 editions.
  9. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    A big "yep" there. I'm nervous about Kaepernick.

    I'm also probably the only person on this Board who is NOT happy about playing @JAX next week. Assuming they lose to Miami, nobody in their right mind wants to play a 2--12 team in December in what will be its Super Bowl. It is still an NFL team.
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2012
  10. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Rookie

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    #70 Jersey

    Not so sure about that.
  11. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    To quote Patriots Planet:

  12. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Famous Last Words...
  13. IllegalContact

    IllegalContact Rookie

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    and the same CK that cost his team the game....literally
  14. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I'm expecting a closer game, kind of like the home game vs. GB late in 2010. Though our offense was good I don't think they were 42 points good on Monday. Got a couple penalties extending drives, one being questionable. The bomb to Stallworth who's no longer here. The fumbles bouncing right to us. And SF's defense is better than Houston's IMO. With each week Gronk is out it's going to be harder and harder to stay potent. I expect our O to struggle a bit in this one but I see us pulling it out with a solid D performance.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  15. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    While i automatically think of SF as a real tough out when i looked at who they beat by how much they're wins aren't that impressive. But i fully accept that i could be wrong on this. To my knowlege SF hasn't dominated or destroyed teams.This week they're traveling across country to play a team that is 20-0 in home games in Dec. and possibly in sleet and freezing rain.. They're a run first team that does enough to winStill out of any team they scare me the most. Ahh except for the giants, in the playoffs.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  16. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The interesting number for me is the lack of completions to Vernon Davis in the last 3 games. Since a 6 catch game vs Chicago in Kaepernick's 1st start, a total of 3 catches in 3 games.
    And without Manningham, the QB has been leaning on Crabtree. If the Pats can eliminate his binky, then his inexperience may come into play.
    My guess...this will be a field position game and BB will want to make SF prove that Kaepernick can move the ball efficiently 80 yards at a time.....by stringing together lots of short passes. Kind of reminds me of 2001 Brady.....high %, short passes.
    Can't wait for this one....a real coaches game
  17. The Gr8est

    The Gr8est Rookie

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    They beat the rodents 34-0.

    Then again, there is that old "is that really an NFL team?" argument.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  18. Uncle Rico

    Uncle Rico Rookie

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    #70 Jersey

    Yeah, no point getting ****y.

    But hey, let's not look pass the Niners this week, OK? As some here point out often, it's very important that we fans take it one game at a time. ;)
  19. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    yeah, especially since this is not a team to look beyond. Kaepernick scares the **** out of me; I don't like QB's who prolong the play out of the pocket, even if, as RGIII and Michael Vick have reminded us this year, their NFL longevity might be brief...all I care is that we have to play the dude this week.

    as for next week, 2--10 teams at home, playing for jobs, pride and fans (unfortunately in that order) are scary because the entire playbook will be open, because "four down territory" might start a little beyond midfield and, most importantly, because pissed-off players are more likely to play recklessly and cause injuries...I mean, they might think getting kicked out of the game and suspended for the last week is actually a good thing (thank goodness for fines as an incentive).
  20. Froob

    Froob Rookie

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    #32 Jersey

    I think they should have have been able to take that FG. Never seen that kind of intentional grounding call, throwing it out of the back of the endzone in my years watching the game. But w/e guess Brady is the only one who gets called for grounding these days lol.
  21. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    Since Gronk went out, they have played 3 tough defenses (yes, even the Jets have a decent defense).

    They have averaged 38 points per game during this stretch.

    SF is the best defense in football, but if the Pats can score 20 this Sunday night, they'll win.

    If the national night game stage in Foxboro was too big for Schaub, there's a good chance it will be for Kaepernick.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  22. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven Rookie

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    That intentional grounding in the superbowl was the big surprise to me. I just rarely see it called when a QB throws it through traffic in the middle of the field. That was the first time noticing a call like that for me. I'm not even sure how you can objectively decide its intentional. I guess maybe because referees know Brady doesn't miss so if he misses a target by that much, it must be intentional. It all started there though. And it does seem like it has been called on Brady more than any of the other quarterbacks I watched this year. Quite disproportionate.

    Having said that, Tom needs to clean it up now that he knows he will be called for it.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  23. shmessy

    shmessy Maude Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #75 Jersey

    The Belichick Pats are 3-0 against Vick, 2-0 against Tebow, 3-0 against McNabb and 2-1 against McNair (loss coming during the inglorious 2002 season) and 2-0 against Kordell Stewart. Just this year, they handled Locker and Tannehill easily.

    Those are the running threat QB's that quickest come to mind.

    Any others? Because, just based on that (admittedly an incomplete list), I'm unconcerned about that threat to a Belichick defense.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  24. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Didn't seem to have much trouble with the Rams' D.
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2012
  25. GrogansArmy

    GrogansArmy Rookie

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    I'm not too familiar with sports betting. Could you explain in greater detail how you could win both bets if the spread goes to 7? I would think that if you bet pats, the pats would have to win by 8 for you to win the bet, no? But you're saying that if the pats win by 4-6 points, you still win. Sorry if its a dumb question, just would like to understand sports betting better and maybe try it myself some day.
  26. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rookie

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    Say you bet $110 to win $100 last Saturday at Pats -3.
    Also say that the line moves up to 7 (hasn't yet and probably won't) and you bet $110 to win $100 on the 49ers +7. You now have two independent bets and there is no result where you can lose both.

    If the Pats win by 8 or more, you win $100 and lose $110 for a net $10 loss
    If the the Pats win by exactly 7, you win $100 and push (get your money back) for a $100 net win
    If the Pats win by 4, 5 or 6 points, you win both bets for a $200 win.
    If the Pats win by exactly 3, you push and win $100 for a $100 net win.
    If the Pats lose outright or win by just 1 or 2 points, you lose $110 and win $100 for a net loss of $10.

    Your largest likelihood is to lose $10 but you have a chance to win $100 or $200 so when the line moves enough, especially over key #s (3, 6, 7, etc) it can be a worthwhile risk. These opportunities don't come up often but they do happen. The difficult part is projecting a line that is likely to have a major move. It usually open happens when an injury status to a key player surprises the consensus but weather can also do the same thing to a point total.
  27. PatsFanSince74

    PatsFanSince74 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    From your lips to God's ears...However, none of those games were played by this D, this season; in fact some of them were with very different, and even classic, Patriots' D's.

    To the legitimate argument that the core of this D beat Tebow twice last year, I think Kaepernick is much more dangerous and multi-faceted than Tebow. But, don't get me wrong, I hope you are right!!!
  28. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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  29. TheBeers

    TheBeers Rookie

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    The line is now Pats -4.5 which is around where it opened. I think it'll end up close to that unless Gronk is playing or maybe the forecast changes for the worse. The line did jump last week quite a bit and the Pats still covered. I can see a lot of people taking the points thinking this will be a close game.
  30. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    My spread calculator has the pats winning by 2.3 points

    Pats: 26.8
    49ers: 24.5

    Before anyone asks: Last week it had the Pats winning by 10.5

    Pats: 36.7
    Hou: 26.2
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