What to do with Wes Welker?

[MoLewisrocks]

Maybe we should start calling Welkah the most cost effective producer at the postion in the league... Not to mention the one whose production most effectively equates to winning...

 

[JackBauer]

Maybe we should start calling Welkah the most cost effective producer at the postion in the league... Not to mention the one whose production most effectively equates to winning...

I think that's the natural byproduct of combining Welker's talent with GOAT QB play, versus combining something like Megatron's preternatural talent with the Pillsbury dough boy's median-level QB play.

 

[mgteich]

We will also need some money for the cornerback position. OT is at most 3rd in off-season priority behind wide receiver and corner. Some would put DE as a top 3 priority.

2013 corners under contract
Dennard
Dowling

Given the choice considering salary cap limitations, I would rather re-sign Wes Welker and Julian Edelman than Danny Woodhead and Sebastian Vollmer.

2013 New England Patriots Running Backs under contract:

Stevan Ridley
Shane Vereen
Brandon Bolden
Jeff Demps (currently tucked away safely on Injured Reserve)
Spencer Larsen (currently on Injured Reserve)

2013 New England Patriots Offensive Tackles under contract:

Nate Solder
Marcus Cannon
Markus Zusevics
Kyle Hix (currently on Injured Reserve)

2013 New England Patriots Wide Receivers under contract:

Brandon Lloyd
Matt Slater (wide receiver in designation only)

Official Website of the New England Patriots | Team - Players

 

[Double TE]

Bring back Talib!!!

 

[patfanken]

The issue with Welker has never been what he is doing NOW, but what will he be able to do in the FUTURE. No one is mentioning that the Pats are paying Welker fairly for his excellent season. If you are paying someone $9.3MM you SHOULD expect him to have over 100 catches and 1200 receiving yards. No one should be feeling badly for Wes Welker. He is doing his job and getting paid fairly for it.

The question the Pats have to ask themselves is can he duplicate the same kind of production NEXT season and thus be worth in excess of $11MM. Welker at that time will be 32 years old and have THAT much more wear and tear on his 185 lb body. To date one can only say that his durability has been EXTRAORDINARY. But the fact is that every player has an expiration date and for players Welker's size when the end comes it comes quickly. There won't be a slow regression of his skills. There will come a year when suddenly he can't get open, and when he gets hit he just won't pop up.

Now this issue for the Pats is figuring out if that "year" is next year, or the year after, or the year after that. No one has the answer, so people who are saying "pay him", and people who are saying "let him walk" both have no clue about what the "right thing" really is.

The easiest thing would be to pay him and give him a 3 year 30MM contract, and then ***** about overpaying him a couple of years down the road. The hardest thing would be to let him go after another super productive year. It might be the smartest thing because the Pats have a number of important FA's to re-sign and its not like Brady would be left with no targets like in 2006. Also the issue of Edelman's talent is no longer in question, but now he needs to overcome the question of his durability

Here is a possible solution. No one on the team benefits more by having Welker around than Tom Brady. The odds are pretty good that Welker can produce at a high level for another year. Brady's contract needs to be restructured for next season, and will probably be the first thing the Pats do before anyone else. I think the Pats would be willing to pay Welker another $9MM for next year. So have Brady give up $2-3MM in money he'll never get to spend in order to allow the Pats to afford to franchise Welker for a second time
That way everyone wins.

The other possible solution would be to convince Welker to sign for 3 years for around $21MM with a $10MM signing bonus and the 3rd year is at the clubs option. Plus or minus 2MM would be a fair deal to me.

 

[Ivan]

The issue with Welker has never been what he is doing NOW, but what will he be able to do in the FUTURE. No one is mentioning that the Pats are paying Welker fairly for his excellent season. If you are paying someone $9.3MM you SHOULD expect him to have over 100 catches and 1200 receiving yards. No one should be feeling badly for Wes Welker. He is doing his job and getting paid fairly for it.

The question the Pats have to ask themselves is can he duplicate the same kind of production NEXT season and thus be worth in excess of $11MM. Welker at that time will be 32 years old and have THAT much more wear and tear on his 185 lb body. To date one can only say that his durability has been EXTRAORDINARY. But the fact is that every player has an expiration date and for players Welker's size when the end comes it comes quickly. There won't be a slow regression of his skills. There will come a year when suddenly he can't get open, and when he gets hit he just won't pop up.

Now this issue for the Pats is figuring out if that "year" is next year, or the year after, or the year after that. No one has the answer, so people who are saying "pay him", and people who are saying "let him walk" both have no clue about what the "right thing" really is.

The easiest thing would be to pay him and give him a 3 year 30MM contract, and then ***** about overpaying him a couple of years down the road. The hardest thing would be to let him go after another super productive year. It might be the smartest thing because the Pats have a number of important FA's to re-sign and its not like Brady would be left with no targets like in 2006. Also the issue of Edelman's talent is no longer in question, but now he needs to overcome the question of his durability

Here is a possible solution. No one on the team benefits more by having Welker around than Tom Brady. The odds are pretty good that Welker can produce at a high level for another year. Brady's contract needs to be restructured for next season, and will probably be the first thing the Pats do before anyone else. I think the Pats would be willing to pay Welker another $9MM for next year. So have Brady give up $2-3MM in money he'll never get to spend in order to allow the Pats to afford to franchise Welker for a second time
That way everyone wins.

The other possible solution would be to convince Welker to sign for 3 years for around $21MM with a $10MM signing bonus and the 3rd year is at the clubs option. Plus or minus 2MM would be a fair deal to me.

His agent should be taken out and shot if he agrees to a deal like that. Bottom line, Patriot fans want Welker to produce like a HOF player while paying him like Ochocinco. Apparently at some point many Patriot fans began to believe they are in charge of finances and no player should ever be paid market value. Welker should run to Denver with both digits raised high above his head to Patriot fans because many clearly don't appreciate his value in any way. There are maybe 2 receivers in football who have produced like Welker, and both have contracts over 75 million.

Hopefully the Patriots don't decide to deal with Brady this way, because if they do it will backfire big time, although many here will just call him an old system QB and beg them to trade him for a 3rd round pick.

 

[Ivan]

The issue with Welker has never been what he is doing NOW, but what will he be able to do in the FUTURE. No one is mentioning that the Pats are paying Welker fairly for his excellent season. If you are paying someone $9.3MM you SHOULD expect him to have over 100 catches and 1200 receiving yards. No one should be feeling badly for Wes Welker. He is doing his job and getting paid fairly for it.

.

Actually he got screwed by the Patriots tagging him, they never offered a fair deal and blocked him from getting one on the open market. And the argument that he will decline has been made for 3 seasons running and he has done just the opposite, and rather than admit this those making it just doubled and tripled down insisting they are right. this is no different than what Borges has been doing to this team for years and patriot fans hate it when he does it and scream about it every chance they get.

 

[IllegalContact]

Fixed that for you. Can't trade him unless they franchise him and that would cost $11.4M. And he'd have to sign the tender which he likely would not do early enough to facilitate a trade. Bedard is convinced he is gone, and I think he has some access in regards to the player. I guarantee you Manning would love to spend the off season getting to know Wes better. The time to sign him to an extension that could have worked for the cap passed over the course of the last two seasons. Unfortunately I think potential replacements haven't panned out. Edelman isn't Welker, and neither is Amendola from a durability standpoint. Brady may yet exert some influence. He noted in his post game presser that he is glad he has him here this season... Had he not, might not be arguing about seeds.

If Welker finishes the season healthy, he will be tagged again.....don't see the pats not tagging him afte another 1400 yard season.

now, I don't if he will play here next year, but the pats aren't go to let him walk for nothing

 

[Ivan]

2010-present:

CJ: 259 receptions, 4229 yards, 33TD
Welkah: 300 receptions, 3481 yards, 20TD

And if you add in 2008 and 2009 Welker comes out ahead, however i basically agree that CJ is worth more than Welker and believe the same argument can be made for Fitzgerald, but that's it, no other WR is in his league in production.
That said that sets the bar really high for payment and the Patriots aren't even close to market value, and everyone knows it. Those talking about short money short term deals are delusional and unless Welker is 100% set on staying here at any cost he is going to take a much better deal to go help another team, and there are many who will pay him well to do just that. I'm going to hate watching Welker help Luck, or Manning, or Rogers, etc.., but that is where this appears to be heading. Hopefully fauria's reports are correct and he stays, but even then the treatment of him by this fanbase absolutely sucks and we really don't deserve to have him here.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, $21M plus a $10M signing bonus might be right with the first 2 years guaranteed. I suspect that only the first year needs and PART of the second needs to be guaranteed.

BONUS $10M
2013 $4M guaranteed
2014 $7M (perhaps $3M bonus plus $4M salary)
2015 $10M

The other possible solution would be to convince Welker to sign for 3 years for around $21MM with a $10MM signing bonus and the 3rd year is at the clubs option. Plus or minus 2MM would be a fair deal to me.

 

[Ivan]

If Welker finishes the season healthy, he will be tagged again.....don't see the pats not tagging him afte another 1400 yard season.

now, I don't if he will play here next year, but the pats aren't go to let him walk for nothing

If they tag him he should challenge it and have an arbitrator declare a UFA because the CBA calls for good faith offers as part of the negotiations, not just a blocking move, and the Patriots offer was a piss poor joke.

 

[Ivan]

Yes, $21M plus a $10M signing bonus might be right with the first 2 years guaranteed. I suspect that only the first year needs and PART of the second needs to be guaranteed.

BONUS $10M
2013 $4M guaranteed
2014 $7M (perhaps $3M bonus plus $4M salary)
2015 $10M

Wouldn't Welker make closer to 30 million if they tagged him for 2 more years?

I'm pretty sure the next tag after 2013 pays him top five in football.

 

[ATippett56]

We will also need some money for the cornerback position. OT is at most 3rd in off-season priority behind wide receiver and corner.

Refer to post #339 of the * Ye Olde 2013 Mock Draft Thread!! * for potential off-season solutions.

 

[patfanken]

Ivan, I can understand your passion, but I'm astonished by you lack of foresight. What exactly would be a fair deal. I notice in all your posts you never mention what the "fair" deal would be. Do you REALLY think Welker is worth more than $9MM this season. Please draw up the list of player you have decided in you wisdom the Pats shouldn't resign because of the money you would give to Welker.

Are you aware the Pats have already allocated a large amount of money to the receiving corps. At what point does allocating all that money to one area of the team become too much. In your view, I guess the answer is NEVER.

I hope Welker stays with the team as much as the next fan. But unlike you, I don't have my head stuck so firmly up Welker's ass, that I don't see that there are consequences for "giving him what he wants". Plus the obvious risks that come with a long term signing of a 185lb 32 year old receiver. I think its time you opened your eyes to those possibilities as well

 

[Deus Irae]

Wouldn't Welker make closer to 30 million if they tagged him for 2 more years?

I'm pretty sure the next tag after 2013 pays him top five in football.

The Patriots could probably have gotten Welker for the same deal Moss got in 2007, give or take. They might even had been able to get away with less than that (3 for 24 or so) if they'd guaranteed most of it. Deciding to be hardasses will now likely cost them either in the wallet, or in a significant loss on the field.

"Penny wise and pound foolish" has become too common when this team deals with top players.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The issue with Welker has never been what he is doing NOW, but what will he be able to do in the FUTURE. No one is mentioning that the Pats are paying Welker fairly for his excellent season. If you are paying someone $9.3MM you SHOULD expect him to have over 100 catches and 1200 receiving yards. No one should be feeling badly for Wes Welker. He is doing his job and getting paid fairly for it.

The question the Pats have to ask themselves is can he duplicate the same kind of production NEXT season and thus be worth in excess of $11MM. Welker at that time will be 32 years old and have THAT much more wear and tear on his 185 lb body. To date one can only say that his durability has been EXTRAORDINARY. But the fact is that every player has an expiration date and for players Welker's size when the end comes it comes quickly. There won't be a slow regression of his skills. There will come a year when suddenly he can't get open, and when he gets hit he just won't pop up.

Now this issue for the Pats is figuring out if that "year" is next year, or the year after, or the year after that. No one has the answer, so people who are saying "pay him", and people who are saying "let him walk" both have no clue about what the "right thing" really is.

The easiest thing would be to pay him and give him a 3 year 30MM contract, and then ***** about overpaying him a couple of years down the road. The hardest thing would be to let him go after another super productive year. It might be the smartest thing because the Pats have a number of important FA's to re-sign and its not like Brady would be left with no targets like in 2006. Also the issue of Edelman's talent is no longer in question, but now he needs to overcome the question of his durability

Here is a possible solution. No one on the team benefits more by having Welker around than Tom Brady. The odds are pretty good that Welker can produce at a high level for another year. Brady's contract needs to be restructured for next season, and will probably be the first thing the Pats do before anyone else. I think the Pats would be willing to pay Welker another $9MM for next year. So have Brady give up $2-3MM in money he'll never get to spend in order to allow the Pats to afford to franchise Welker for a second time
That way everyone wins.

The other possible solution would be to convince Welker to sign for 3 years for around $21MM with a $10MM signing bonus and the 3rd year is at the clubs option. Plus or minus 2MM would be a fair deal to me.

This is the same conversation that we've been having every year since 2010, at least. At this point, I think Welker's performance has made it pretty clear that, until he starts actually slowing down, forecasting his demise is premature at best.

 

[Ivan]

Ivan, I can understand your passion, but I'm astonished by you lack of foresight. What exactly would be a fair deal. I notice in all your posts you never mention what the "fair" deal would be. Do you REALLY think Welker is worth more than $9MM this season. Please draw up the list of player you have decided in you wisdom the Pats shouldn't resign because of the money you would give to Welker.

Are you aware the Pats have already allocated a large amount of money to the receiving corps. At what point does allocating all that money to one area of the team become too much. In your view, I guess the answer is NEVER.

I hope Welker stays with the team as much as the next fan. But unlike you, I don't have my head stuck so firmly up Welker's ass, that I don't see that there are consequences for "giving him what he wants". Plus the obvious risks that come with a long term signing of a 185lb 32 year old receiver. I think its time you opened your eyes to those possibilities as well

Ken, I already stated in this thread I would give him 40 for 4 with 25 guaranteed and be thankful if he agreed to it because it is still below the value of his production. And the people with their heads up their asses are those who have been saying he is easily replaced and that he is on the downside for the last 3 years. They have been dead wrong while myself, mo, deus and others have been 100% right. Welker is a HOF quality player who gets treated like he is a jag by the know nothing Maddenites and faux GM's here. It really becomes comical when people make the same claims year after year, are proven completely wrong year after year, but still insist they are right and act as if others are crazy when it is clear they are deluded.

 

[patfanken]

This is the same conversation that we've been having every year since 2010, at least. At this point, I think Welker's performance has made it pretty clear that, until he starts actually slowing down, forecasting his demise is premature at best.

No its not premature. In fact it should be the crux of the discussion. No Pats fans on either side of the issue has EVER made the statement that Welker hasn't been worth every penny the Pats have paid him....including the $9.3MM he got this year. But unless you believe that there is no chance he won't continue with the same kind of production at his age and size over the next 3 or 4 years, you have to assume that there is SOME point where his productivity will start to decline. A point where he won't be able to get separation on his routes, and a time where his body will start to fail him.

History tells us that its likely to occur sometime within the next 3 years. Good cap management is NOT to wait until we actually see the decline on the field, but to anticipate it. You know the old maxim, "better a year too early than a year too late"

And besides you can't just make a decision on Welker in a vacuum. There are other consequences that come into play. If you play Welker, who doesn't get signed. Can you afford to allocate so much money on one area of your team when you already have spent heavily on the receiver position with big contracts to Hernandez and Gronkowski, and a medium contract to Lloyd. There are simply a more factor that come into play than simply "is Welker worth the money he wants?"

There ARE times where you have to let a player go, even if he is well worth the money he wants. Playing Welker a market contract could very well do more harm than good in the long run.

Maybe there is a team that would sacrifice the long term to chase a shot at a title by signing Welker to a contract they'll regret in a couple of years, but I don't think THIS franchise will be willing to do it.

BTW- this sound eerily familiar to the talk around hear when Branch wanted his market contract. Eventually he got it from a Seattle team that thought they were one receiver away from a title. Ask a Seattle fans what they thought of that deal in hindsight, and Branch was still in his prime.....not 32.

 

[ATippett56]

This is the same conversation that we've been having every year since 2010, at least. At this point, I think Welker's performance has made it pretty clear that, until he starts actually slowing down, forecasting his demise is premature at best.

At the age of 34, I'm still waiting for the demise of wide receiver Reggie Wayne.

Food for thought.

 

[patfanken]

Ken, I already stated in this thread I would give him 40 for 4 with 25 guaranteed and be thankful if he agreed to it because it is still below the value of his production. And the people with their heads up their asses are those who have been saying he is easily replaced and that he is on the downside for the last 3 years. They have been dead wrong while myself, mo, deus and others have been 100% right. Welker is a HOF quality player who gets treated like he is a jag by the know nothing Maddenites and faux GM's here. It really becomes comical when people make the same claims year after year, are proven completely wrong year after year, but still insist they are right and act as if others are crazy when it is clear they are deluded.

Fair enough. You stated your offer. Now add that offer with the ones the Pats gave Hernandez, Gronkowski and Lloyd, and then figure out what percentage of your total cap is locked up in just 4 members of your receiving corps, and THEN tell me it makes sense to you.

AGAIN, its not just a matter or paying Welker what he's worth, but what he's going to be worth down the road, and how it affects the rest of the salary structure. You don't do salary negotiations in a vacuum. That's what fans do. "he's good, pay him". Unfortunately it can't work that way when there is a finite number you can pay your players, DESPITE what Felgar says. The first rule of capology. For every dollar you give one player, there is one less dollar for everyone else.