What to do with Wes Welker?

[ATippett56]

History tells us that its likely to occur sometime within the next 3 years. Good cap management is NOT to wait until we actually see the decline on the field, but to anticipate it. You know the old maxim, "better a year too early than a year too late".

At the age of 34, tell that to wide receiver Reggie Wayne.

And besides you can't just make a decision on Welker in a vacuum. There are other consequences that come into play. If you play Welker, who doesn't get signed. Can you afford to allocate so much money on one area of your team when you already have spent heavily on the receiver position with big contracts to Hernandez and Gronkowski, and a medium contract to Lloyd. There are simply a more factor that come into play than simply "is Welker worth the money he wants?"

The 2006 Indianapolis Colts allocated the vast majority of salary cap dollars to the offense and won a Super Bowl.

There ARE times where you have to let a player go, even if he is well worth the money he wants. Playing Welker a market contract could very well do more harm than good in the long run.

Sebastian Vollmer and his chronic back issues would more likely be the candidate to depart via unrestricted free agency.

Maybe there is a team that would sacrifice the long term to chase a shot at a title by signing Welker to a contract they'll regret in a couple of years, but I don't think THIS franchise will be willing to do it.

That's purely speculative on your part.

 

[Danger Zone]

Ken, I already stated in this thread I would give him 40 for 4 with 25 guaranteed and be thankful if he agreed to it because it is still below the value of his production. And the people with their heads up their asses are those who have been saying he is easily replaced and that he is on the downside for the last 3 years. They have been dead wrong while myself, mo, deus and others have been 100% right. Welker is a HOF quality player who gets treated like he is a jag by the know nothing Maddenites and faux GM's here. It really becomes comical when people make the same claims year after year, are proven completely wrong year after year, but still insist they are right and act as if others are crazy when it is clear they are deluded.

You, Mo and Deus might have been 100% right about Welker, but you three are often your own worst enemies in carrying on an actual mature conversation and probably the top most obnoxious posters when it comes to how you respond to people that disagree with your entrenched, take-no-prisoners viewpoints.

The only crazy deluded poster I see here is you thinking Welker needs you to tilt at windmills for him.

 

[patfanken]

At the age of 34, I'm still waiting for the demise of wide receiver Reggie Wayne.

Food for thought.

There are exceptions that prove every rule. Wayne has been well worth the contract he was paid this year. Will he be worth it next year?....and the year after that? Anyone's guess.

Its always a guessing game. Take the year we decided not to play Ty Law. He went to the Jets and had 10 picks (although some would say his overall defensive play declined a lot that year) But after that he was never a factor in the league even though he played 4 more years with 2 other teams. He's a perfect example of a year too early rather than a year too late.

Richard Seymour probably still is a very good defensive lineman, but he has NEVER played to the level of that enormous contact he got from the Raiders, nor has he had a similar impact to his team like he did when he was with the Patriots. Another example of you can't pay everyone. If you paid Seymour, then there would be no Wilfolk. There are consequences that some fans are not thinking through.

What are the consequences of paying Welker a market deal. It could be not resigning Volmer and Talib, and who know what else

 

[ATippett56]

What are the consequences of paying Welker a market deal. It could be not resigning Volmer and Talib, and who know what else

Since 2001, the New England Patriots organization have a far better track record of drafting and developing offensive lineman in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft than wide receivers. Sebastian Vollmer's chronic back issues do not seem to diminish, since he has been on the injury report every week this season. I guess you also forgot about Nick Kaczur and his back issues, as well.

Talib will be an unrestricted free agent and the unrestricted free agent market for cornerbacks has become completely ludicrous.

 

[Deus Irae]

You, Mo and Deus might have been 100% right about Welker, but you three are often your own worst enemies in carrying on an actual mature conversation and probably the top most obnoxious posters when it comes to how you respond to people that disagree with your entrenched, take-no-prisoners viewpoints.

People such as Mo, Myself and others are strong personality posters, no question, but the anklebiters like yourself are different far more in degree than in kind. You certainly could have avoided mentioning Mo and myself in your response, for example, and focused only on the poster you were responding to, yet you chose not to do so.

 

[supafly]

Ken, I already stated in this thread I would give him 40 for 4 with 25 guaranteed and be thankful if he agreed to it because it is still below the value of his production.

Glad you are not my accountant

I would think that the Patriots are thinking at about 50% of your "offer," which would equate to 2/20 with 12.5 guaranteed, and they may not even be going that high considering that he's another year older and they wouldn't do that deal last year.

If they did offer him 50% of your proposed deal, he'd be stupid not to take it.

EDIT: Stupid is an unfair word to use, but when you consider all of the angles for staying here, playing with Brady, and continuing to have a shot at a SB, that would seem like a very fair compromise for both sides to reach. An argument can be made to bump up the guaranteed money to about 14-15 million on a 2 yr deal worth 20 million.

 

[Deus Irae]

Glad you are not my accountant

I would think that the Patriots are thinking at about 50% of your "offer," which would equate to 2/20 with 12.5 guaranteed, and they may not even be going that high considering that he's another year older and they wouldn't do that deal last year.

If they did offer him 50% of your proposed deal, he'd be stupid not to take it.

EDIT: Stupid is an unfair word to use, but when you consider all of the angles for staying here, playing with Brady, and continuing to have a shot at a SB, that would seem like a very fair compromise for both sides to reach. An argument can be made to bump up the guaranteed money to about 14-15 million on a 2 yr deal worth 20 million.

You should re-check your numbers. Welker would get 11+ just for one year on the franchise tag. Why on Earth would you think it "stupid" for him not to take a deal that only offered him an extra 1 year, 8+ deal that's essentially only about an extra million of guaranteed money over the franchise tag?

 

[supafly]

You should re-check your numbers. Welker would get 11+ just for one year on the franchise tag. Why on Earth would you think it "stupid" for him not to take a deal that only offered him an extra 1 year, 8+ deal that's essentially only about an extra million of guaranteed money over the franchise tag?

I just think that a 2 year deal for 20 million with 14-15 guaranteed is very fair for both sides.

I quickly edited my post, as the word "stupid" was not appropriate.

As far as bringing up the franchise tag though, I'm not sure why we should necessarily compare his potential deal to another year of the franchise tag? He wouldn't get franchised anywhere else (obviously), so I think that a 2 year deal at 20 million with most of it guaranteed is definitely fair.

It would also make his 3 year total at 3 years/30 million with 25 million guaranteed here, which has to be considered good from his camp.

The most important part of the deal is that it would show that the front office and team has indeed placed a decently high value on him, and that they actually came up from their stance a bit, all when another year of age has passed.

If we're expecting anything more than that, we may as well all accept that he'll be gone next spring then.

 

[Deus Irae]

I just think that a 2 year deal for 20 million with 14-15 guaranteed is very fair for both sides.

I quickly edited my post, as the word "stupid" was not appropriate.

As far as bringing up the franchise tag though, I'm not sure why we should necessarily compare his potential deal to another year of the franchise tag? He wouldn't get franchised anywhere else (obviously), so I think that a 2 year deal at 20 million with most of it guaranteed is definitely fair.

Reggie Wayne got a 3 year deal at 34 years of age, and he didn't have the franchise tag as a weapon. Welker is 31. He'd be a fool to take your deal.

It would also make his 3 year total at 3 years/30 million with 25 million guaranteed here, which has to be considered good from his camp.

The Patriots could have offered him a 3 year deal last season, but reports say that they didn't. Why would you expect the Welker camp to give them credit there?

The most important part of the deal is that it would show that the front office and team has indeed placed a decently high value on him, and that they actually came up from their stance a bit, all when another year of age has passed.

If we're expecting anything more than that, we may as well all accept that he'll be gone next spring then.

The front office values him so much that they kept him wildly underpaid on his first contract and then slapped the franchise tag on him instead of giving him a fair market contract.

Why do people think players should just keep eating crap sandwiches and saying "thanks, coach!" just because they play for the Patriots?

 

[N.Eman]

Sign him...I would hate to see him on an AFC conf team uniform....If Coach Belichick trades him..I hope he goes somwhere on the NFC west for a draft pick

 

[supafly]

Reggie Wayne got a 3 year deal at 34 years of age, and he didn't have the franchise tag as a weapon. Welker is 31. He'd be a fool to take your deal.



The Patriots could have offered him a 3 year deal last season, but reports say that they didn't. Why would you expect the Welker camp to give them credit there?



The front office values him so much that they kept him wildly underpaid on his first contract and then slapped the franchise tag on him instead of giving him a fair market contract.

Why do people think players should just keep eating crap sandwiches and saying "thanks, coach!" just because they play for the Patriots?

I certainly don't want to be lumped in with anyone with is generalized by thinking that a player should just say "thanks coach" due to the fact that they play for the Patriots, and am looking at only the deal for Welker here.

By offering him a greater deal than last year (upping the 2 yr deal from 16 million to 20 million...one year LATER, with the same guaranteed money) after they paid him the franchise tag number, I would think that would show a good faith choice by the front office.

You are right that they dropped the ball last year, but that was the choice that they made. The only thing they can try to do now is offer something "fair." I would think that an overall 3 yr deal worth 30 million with almost all of that guaranteed (5/6th) would be doing so.

My original reponse was also to Ivan who suggested a ridiculous (IMO) offer of 4/40 with 25 guaranteed. If anyone thinks that is "reasonable" one year after they wouldn't go more than 2/16, they are fooling themselves, and like I said we may as well just consider him gone right now.

 

[Deus Irae]

I certainly don't want to be lumped in with anyone with is generalized by thinking that a player should just say "thanks coach" due to the fact that they play for the Patriots, and am looking at only the deal for Welker here.

By offering him a greater deal than last year (upping the 2 yr deal from 16 million to 20 million...one year LATER, with the same guaranteed money) after they paid him the franchise tag number, I would think that would show a good faith choice by the front office.

You are right that they dropped the ball last year, but that was the choice that they made. The only thing they can try to do now is offer something "fair." I would think that an overall 3 yr deal worth 30 million with almost all of that guaranteed (5/6th) would be doing so.

My original reponse was also to Ivan who suggested a ridiculous (IMO) offer of 4/40 with 25 guaranteed. If anyone thinks that is "reasonable" one year after they wouldn't go more than 2/16, they are fooling themselves, and like I said we may as well just consider him gone right now.

But you're acting as if this year's deal should count with the Welker side and calling it a 3 year deal. That's precisely the problem. The Patriots hung Welker out on a one year deal, which is exactly the opposite of giving him the sort of long-term security that comes with a 3 year deal. If you're going to talk about the team offering him a 3 year deal, that would require them offering a 3 year deal.

Also, you're acting as if they should get credit for offering more this year than last. Well, since they were offering a ridiculously low deal last year, why should they get credit for giving it a slight upgrade when Welker is having yet another 120+ reception type of year despite the nonsense the Patriots were pulling at the start of the season, and the result is that he's still franchise worthy, and that franchise value would bring about a $2 million bump over last year? Your deal is really just a $2 million bump in exchange for accepting yet another 2 year offer instead of getting something longer term.

 

[supafly]

But you're acting as if this year's deal should count with the Welker side and calling it a 3 year deal. That's precisely the problem. The Patriots hung Welker out on a one year deal, which is exactly the opposite of giving him the sort of long-term security that comes with a 3 year deal. If you're going to talk about the team offering him a 3 year deal, that would require them offering a 3 year deal.

Also, you're acting as if they should get credit for offering more this year than last. Well, since they were offering a ridiculously low deal last year, why should they get credit for giving it a slight upgrade when Welker is having yet another 120+ reception type of year despite the nonsense the Patriots were pulling at the start of the season, and the result is that he's still franchise worthy, and that franchise value would bring about a $2 million bump over last year? Your deal is really just a $2 million bump in exchange for accepting yet another 2 year offer instead of getting something longer term.

Your concerns about them lowballing him are certainly valid, and it will remain to be seen whether or not they come up at all + exactly how much.

You are right that it shouldn't be lumped in as a "3 yr deal" since this year was under the franchise tag, but I have worries that the front office may very well see it that way.

You make a good point that potentially offering a real 3 year deal now instead of another 2 year deal may be the key, but I have doubts at to whether or not they will actually do that.

My "offer" (If it were really up to me I would probably try to be more creative by adding a 3rd year where they could possibly back out if needed) is probably a lot closer to what the front office is thinking, at least in my opinion anyway. It may very well be considered wrong or unfair, but I just don't see how they come up anymore than what I suggested.

The fact that they screwed up last year is done and over with, so the fact that they are coming up now another year later is where I am seeing the "fairness" of the deal. There's nothing we can do now since it is over with, but if they were thinking that a 2/16 deal was fair, I can't help but feel that the best we may get is something in the 2/20 range now.

As you said, adding another year on the deal may get it done, but if that is an option I would wonder why it wasn't last year? That is what makes me leery that they will go much higher.

In the actual sense of "equality" you are probably much closer to right than I am with Welker's deal and production, but I am looking at it from the front office's point of view in a more realistic sense (or at least attempting to from their point of view).

We may very well have seen the last of Welker this year due to some of the concerns and factors that you bring up, but I am not guessing that there will be "that" much more of an upgrade myself. We will have to see how it plays out.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your concerns...

Thanks for this well thought out post. I think we've both put our points on the table and have been able to bounce them off one another in a way that shows what the two sides will likely be thinking in any negotiations. At this point, I'm not sure if there's much more you and I can touch on, I think we have significant points of agreement, and it's probably time for some new blood here to give us another perspective, or to "annoy" one/both of us.

Great stuff, and thanks again. If there's anything else you'd like to bring up on this subject, I'll be happy to revisit this.

 

[BradyFTW!]

No its not premature. In fact it should be the crux of the discussion. No Pats fans on either side of the issue has EVER made the statement that Welker hasn't been worth every penny the Pats have paid him....including the $9.3MM he got this year. But unless you believe that there is no chance he won't continue with the same kind of production at his age and size over the next 3 or 4 years, you have to assume that there is SOME point where his productivity will start to decline. A point where he won't be able to get separation on his routes, and a time where his body will start to fail him.

History tells us that its likely to occur sometime within the next 3 years. Good cap management is NOT to wait until we actually see the decline on the field, but to anticipate it. You know the old maxim, "better a year too early than a year too late"

And besides you can't just make a decision on Welker in a vacuum. There are other consequences that come into play. If you play Welker, who doesn't get signed. Can you afford to allocate so much money on one area of your team when you already have spent heavily on the receiver position with big contracts to Hernandez and Gronkowski, and a medium contract to Lloyd. There are simply a more factor that come into play than simply "is Welker worth the money he wants?"

There ARE times where you have to let a player go, even if he is well worth the money he wants. Playing Welker a market contract could very well do more harm than good in the long run.

Maybe there is a team that would sacrifice the long term to chase a shot at a title by signing Welker to a contract they'll regret in a couple of years, but I don't think THIS franchise will be willing to do it.

BTW- this sound eerily familiar to the talk around hear when Branch wanted his market contract. Eventually he got it from a Seattle team that thought they were one receiver away from a title. Ask a Seattle fans what they thought of that deal in hindsight, and Branch was still in his prime.....not 32.

You were making the same case before this season. I'll tell you what: you tell us right now when you think Welker's going to start noticeably slowing down. Pick a year and own it, because I'm willing to bet that time will prove you wrong.

 

[ATippett56]

You make a good point that potentially offering a real 3 year deal now instead of another 2 year deal may be the key, but I have doubts at to whether or not they will actually do that.

Food for thought:

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2010 Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page

March, 2008 update Tim DiPiero, the agent for Randy Moss, emailed the following to some members of the media - "I am pleased to confirm that Randy Moss has signed a three year contract with the New England Patriots. The contract calls for a total payout of $27 million with $15 million guaranteed, $12 million of which is in the form of a signing bonus. Randy is grateful to Mr. Kraft, Coach Belichick and Scott Pioli for agreeing to the terms of this contract. Randy was serious about wanting to stay. Because of Randy's record-breaking year, the interest in him was very high. Randy took less than he could have to rejoin his teammates.”

March 4, 2008 update Mike Reiss blogged on 3/4 - "Here are some more details on Randy Moss's contract with the Patriots:"

Base salaries:

• 2008: $1.9 million
• 2009: $6.4 million
• 2010: $6.4 million

Salary cap charges:

• 2008: $6 million
• 2009: $10.5 million
• 2010: $10.5 million

 

[Ivan]

I certainly don't want to be lumped in with anyone with is generalized by thinking that a player should just say "thanks coach" due to the fact that they play for the Patriots, and am looking at only the deal for Welker here.

By offering him a greater deal than last year (upping the 2 yr deal from 16 million to 20 million...one year LATER, with the same guaranteed money) after they paid him the franchise tag number, I would think that would show a good faith choice by the front office.

You are right that they dropped the ball last year, but that was the choice that they made. The only thing they can try to do now is offer something "fair." I would think that an overall 3 yr deal worth 30 million with almost all of that guaranteed (5/6th) would be doing so.

My original reponse was also to Ivan who suggested a ridiculous (IMO) offer of 4/40 with 25 guaranteed. If anyone thinks that is "reasonable" one year after they wouldn't go more than 2/16, they are fooling themselves, and like I said we may as well just consider him gone right now.

"Good faith" my ass. The Patriots blocked Welker from a fair market deal and offered him a fraction of what he is worth, and he would make close to 30 million the next 2 seasons if he simply let them tag him and will make most of what you suggest simply by signing the tag for this season. 40 million for years with 25 guaranteed is as reasonable as it gets for a guy who produces more than all but 1-2 receivers in football, and all the too old, too small, slot receiver crap in the world doesn't change that fact. if the Patriots let Welker walk he's getting 30 million and they will pay dearly for such an dumbassed decision in coming seasons. Had they taken the advice of the Welker haters in this forum any chance at a SB this year would be gone.

Can't wait for the next Brady deal so I can watch the same people choke on the too old, system QB argument, as it is no different than the crap argued here.

 

[Ivan]

My original reponse was also to Ivan who suggested a ridiculous (IMO) offer of 4/40 with 25 guaranteed. If anyone thinks that is "reasonable" one year after they wouldn't go more than 2/16, they are fooling themselves, and like I said we may as well just consider him gone right now.

Calvin Johnson and possibly Larry Fitzgerald are the only WR's in football who have produced the way Welker has the past three seasons, and both have contracts worth over 75 million. Welker at 4-40 is a bargain and he should spit up at anything less. The same people have been making the same argument about Welker's impending demise for three years and actually wanted to trade him for a 2nd each of those offseasons, that's what is ridiculous, not paying him what he is actually worth. I realize every patriot should take a small fraction of what they are actually worth in the eyes of many in patriot nation, I just don't buy it and think they should pay fair market value to those who deserve it, and no player deserves it more than Welker does.

Cut Lloyd, let Edelman and Vollmer walk, and pay Welker a fair market deal. Problem solved. 4-40 is reasonable, your 20 million dollar deal is foolish.

 

[heavyde050]

Please send the Patriots front office the extensive list of elite WRs who never drop passes.

It was never meant to say that a WR should not drop passes, as they all do. My entire point is that even though Welker is a phenomenal talent and is a beast for the Pats, he has developed a propensity for dropping important passes. If the initial post did not make that distinction clear, then I did not word it correctly.

 

[supafly]

Cut Lloyd, let Edelman and Vollmer walk, and pay Welker a fair market deal. Problem solved. 4-40 is reasonable, your 20 million dollar deal is foolish.

I fail to see why Llyod's fair market deal or Edelman's peanuts would have much to do with whether or not Welker stays.

Vollmer is a much different story altogether due to injury concerns, so that will factor into whether or not he accepts NE's offer, which will be lower than he may get from other teams.

I can't agree on cutting certain players that could potentially hurt certain parts of the team to shore up one player/position, so there will be some debate there. Both Llyod and Edelman should come at fairly reasonable prices for the next couple of seasons, and will contribute towards the future for fairly cheap deals.

As far as your proposed 4 year/40 million dollar deal with 25 guaranteed, I would not think that too many would agree with that, certainly not the majority.

While the same could be said for "my" proposal of 2/20 with 15 guaranteed, it's obvious that the team feels closer to my opinion. Whether they are ultimately correct or not remains to be seen, but their history has proven to be much better than most in these situations.

I just couldn't see how they would suddenly even come close to offering him a 4 year/40 million dollar deal one year after they wouldn't put anything better than 2/16 on the table, and that's why I came up with the 2/20 proposal---nothing more.

If you are simply talking about what is "right" for Welker and his situation, then it would probably be a split down the middle between both of our pacts, which would put him at 3 years and 30 million. That would be fair for sure, but I have my doubts as to whether or not the team would go for that seeing as how they seemed to undervalue him last off-season.