My Blueprint For the Pats

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

While Cannon has not played "GUARD" per se, there were more than a few times last year, in goal line situations, where Cannon would come in and would line up inside between Waters at RG and Solder who was playing on the line as a RT.

You know what that's called? Of course you don't. It's called playing tackle. Solder is the third tackle in that formation.

Belichick has never had an O-lineman, previously, who was 350 lbs and only 10% body fat and was as athletic as Cannon. So, saying he's never had a guard at that weight has no bearing on the situation at all..

And he still doesn't. You keep saying Cannon is 10% BF, and people keep saying you're wrong. Every time somebody asks you for a reputable link, you stop replying. So I'll ask again. Do you have a reputable link that says he is 10% BF?

We do not know what goes on during the non-public parts of practice. Do you honestly believe that BB wouldn't have Cannon take reps at RG? Or that the reps he took while lined up between Waters and Solder couldn't be considered RG reps?

He does take some reps at guard in practice. Tackles and guards take limited reps at the opposite position all the time. If they have to fill in during a game they have to have some experience there.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

The O-lineman goes to an area and blocks whoever's there are opposed to blocking a specific players, yes? Why would Cannon be incapable of that?

Well he is and does, but at tackle, and not guard. Belichick demands a lot from his guards. Especially in technique and short area quickness. Neither are things Cannon has in abundance.

 

[mayoclinic]

I love it, you covered a lot of ground, I'd have preferred someone on the edge on the D-line, even if it's a late round guy like David Bass, but I;d be super-excited if we did exactly what you had here.

To be clear, I would use Ra'shede Hageman as an edge player in the mold of a JJ Watt or a Justin Smith who could move inside at times, especially if the Pats also draft a true DT to rotate along with Wilfork and Love. At 6'6" 300# with 4.78 speed and the explosiveness that goes with a 35" vertical at that weight I think that Hageman could excel outside or inside. Outside, he's got the length and strength to 2-gap and the ability to set the edge, but the explosiveness and quickness to generate pressure. Inside, he's too fast for guards. Kick him inside on 3rd down and use Ninkovich or Cunningham on the edge.

 

[manxman2601]

To be clear, I would use Ra'shede Hageman as an edge player in the mold of a JJ Watt or a Justin Smith who could move inside at times, especially if the Pats also draft a true DT to rotate along with Wilfork and Love. At 6'6" 300# with 4.78 speed and the explosiveness that goes with a 35" vertical at that weight I think that Hageman could excel outside or inside. Outside, he's got the length and strength to 2-gap and the ability to set the edge, but the explosiveness and quickness to generate pressure. Inside, he's too fast for guards. Kick him inside on 3rd down and use Ninkovich or Cunningham on the edge.

I've just watched him in one game against UNLV and man, he can't handle double teams, ends up playing cover 1 he's pushed so far back (I know you're not mocking him to the Pats to play double teams). The athleticism's there but in that game, not a lot else. I've got some other games of his so I'll look deeper.

Edit: A Gopher forum discussing Hageman.

http://www.forums.gopherhole.com/bo...an-early-exit-to-the-NFL-is-worth-considering

 

[mayoclinic]

I've just watched him in one game against UNLV and man, he can't handle double teams, ends up playing cover 1 he's pushed so far back (I know you're not mocking him to the Pats to play double teams). The athleticism's there but in that game, not a lot else. I've got some other games of his so I'll look deeper.

Edit: A Gopher forum discussing Hageman.

PiPress: Ra'Shede Hageman says an early exit to the NFL is worth considering

Hageman has a ton of athleticism and talent, but he's not as far ahead at this point as some others. He has switched positions, so there's a bit of an explanation, and the motor seems to be coming on. We've seen a lot of athletic guys take a year or so to figure things out, then explode once they get the hang of things. JJ Watt and Sheldon Richardson come to mind. I had Hageman going around 100, and I think he'd be a good value in that range. Tony Pauline predicts he will be a top 120 pick if he declares. He's not an elite player right now, but he does have a ton of upside.

 

[manxman2601]

I wasn't going to put out an update to my "blueprint" until after the end of the regular season and probably the January 15 deadline for players to declare, but here's an interim version of where my thoughts currently are.



The Draft:

I want to go defense and particularly focus on the DL early on. The guys I would consider taking with a 1st round pick are:

1. Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - will be long gone
2. Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St. - will probably be long gone
3. Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame - probably won't come out, and if he does, will probably be long gone.
4. Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama - one of my favorites for a long time now.
5. Sheldon Richardson, DT/DE, Missouri - great pentrating ability, athleticism and burst. But is he a schematic fit, and what about the character and intelligence issues? Will also probably be gone.
6. Dion Jordan, DE/OLB, Oregon - incredible fluidity in space. Where does he fit?
7. Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU - incredible athleticism and upside, but still raw.
8. Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia - great length and fluidity. Former safety, has Urlacher-like of length and movement skills. Will probably be gone, but even if not, would be take another LB that high?

The only offensive player I would consider taking is probably Jonathan Cooper. But I really prefer going defense.

I'm assuming that all 8 of those guys may be off the board by #32, in which case I'd probably advocate something along the lines of the following:

***Trade: Pats trade #32 (590 points) for #40 and #103 (588 points). With all of my top guys gone by #32, the Pats trade back and pick up an extra 4th round pick.

40. Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina. 6'4" 320#. Currently NFL Draftscout #67.

Stud Horse! I'm assuming in this mock that all of my top guys listed above are gone before the Pats pick. In that case, I see BB trading back for a modest pick up. Williams is an extremely talented DT who slips a bit because of a deep and talented class and because he is a slightly older prospect, having spent 2 years in a manufacturing plant before going to community college and then to North Carolina. I'm not normally a fan of North Carolina players, but Williams has a great motor, terrific core strength, and great athleticism for a big man. He is strong against the run and has the strength to handle double teams, but is explosive enough to collapse the pocket and penetrate. He has nice positional versatility, playing either 4-3 DT position, 3-4 NT, and even some 3-4 DE. A rotation of Vince Wilfork, Kyle Love and Williams would be beastly. Kawann Short (#39 on Draftscout's list) could also be an option. Again, I'd rather have Jesse Williams or Louis Nix, but I'm not convinced they'll be available.

***Trade: Pats trade #62 (284 points) for 3rd and 4th round picks. Call it something like #80 and #100 for now (290 points).

80. Da'Rick Rogers, WR, Tennessee Tech. Currently NFL Draftscout #76.

Stud Horse! Rogers has Dez Bryant kind of ability, with some of the same issues - but at the price of a 3rd round pick instead of a 1st, he may be worth the gamble. I'd personally rather have Tavon Austin or Cordarelle Patterson, but neither is likely to be available this late. Taking a WR like Markus Wheaton or Steadman Bailey later may be an alternative.

94. Kyle Long, OT, Oregon. 6'7" 311#. Currently NFL Draftscout #74.

Beast! No longer a sleeper, Kyle Long is just a beast, with incredible athleticism, and a mean streak.

Tony Pauline has suggested that Long could go as high as the mid 2nd round, though that seems a bit of a reach. I have him in the late 3rd/early 4th for now, as a top 100 pick. The Pats could conceivably take him earlier instead of a WR and then go for someone late Markus Wheaton or Stedman Bailey a bit later. Ohio St. OT Reid Fragel (6'8" 305#, former TE with terrific athletic ability) might be a nice sleeper option if Long goes earlier than expected.

100. Ra'shede Hageman, DT/DE, Minnesota. 6'6" 300#. Currently NR by NFLDraftScout for 2013, but predicted to declare.

Sleeper Beast! A former TE and basketball player, Hageman has JJ Watt size and raw athleticism, but is just scratching his surface. Reportedly has 4.78 speed with a 35" vertical, can windmill dunk at 300#. Was a backup until this year, then exploded as the Gophers' best lineman. Hageman couldn't be blocked one on one this year, and now routinely draws double teams. He has the frame to get bigger, but could play outside as a 4-3 LDE/3-4 DE, and move inside on passing downs. His upside is ridiculous. If the Pats don't snag Ziggy Ansah or Sheldon Richardson early on, I hope they grab Hageman.

103. Brian Winters, OL, Kent St. 6'4" 310#. Currently NFL Draftscout #101.

Sleeper Stud Horse! Winters fits the Pats profile of moving college OTs inside to guard. A small school prospect, he has nice athleticism and footwork. He's an excellent run blocker who mauls defenders. With his scruffy beard and blue collar game, he fits nicely into the Matt Light/Logan Mankins kind of mold.

5 (comp). Phillip Thomas, S, Fresno St. 6'1" 215#. Currently NFL Draftscout #171.

Sleeper! A Thorpe award finalist with 8 interceptions including 3 for TDs this year, Rob Rang calls Thomas "the best safety no one has ever heard of".

6 (comp). Tyrann Mathieu, DB, LSU. 5'9" 176#. Currently NFL Draftscout #187.

Fallen Beast! The Honey Badger becomes the 2013 version of Aaron Hernandez/Alfonzo Dennard, a day 1 or 2 pick who slips to day 3 because of off field issues and gets snatched up by BB. Mathieu is undersized and doesn't have elite man coverage skills. But he is a heat seeking missile and ball hawk par extraordinaire who can be moved all around the secondary to create disruption. He's a big risk without a true position and multiple off field issues leading to his dismissal from LSU, but as a day 3 pick the upside is too great to ignore.

7a. Alonzo Highsmith, LB, Arkansas. 6'1" 235#. Currently NFL Draftscout #400.

Wounded Sleeper! Highsmith would have been a mid round pick and possibly better if he had stayed healthy.

7b.Nick Kasa, TE, Colorado. 6'6" 260#. Currently NFL Draftscout #232.

Super Sleeper! With Travis Kelce no longer a sleeper, Kasa could be a late round bargain. Whereas Ra'shede Hageman was a TE recruit who has thrived on the DL, Kasa was a 4 star DE recruit who has thrived since being moved to TE. He has a basketball background to boot.

Another excellently considered mock.

1. Sylvester Williams.

If we're going for a one gap DT high, other than Sheldon Richardson, Williams would be my choice. However, I'm not overly keen on it as a first pick. Part of that is a philosophical difference between you and I. I just don't think the value on DT is all that great. Jesse Williams, Louis Nix, Sheldon Richardson and Hankins are special enough to provide value with the first pick but I don't think Williams is. I'd take him with a second rounder but only providing we got a top quality player first. Still like him mind.

2. Da'Rick Rogers

I'm conflicted here. There's a lot to like about Rogers' skillset but his speed and character concern me. If the Pats draft him then great, he's passed the interview, but personally, I think he's too much of a risk.

3. Kyle Long

I haven't seen him so can't comment. Love the measurables and bloodlines though. I'll take your word on his ability.

4. Ra'Shede Hageman

See my post above. As a situational rusher, he's a fine upside pick but his inability to hold up against the run would be a concern.

5. Brian Winters

Excellent pick. Would take this in a heartbeat. As you've said, he's an ideal choice to move inside. If I didn't love Cooper so much, Winters would be close to my second choice for interior OL.

6. Philip Thomas

This is ambitious. I've seen him talked about as a potential first rounder and possible best safety in the class which would be a nice though unlikely bargain at this point.

7. Tyrann Mathieu.

Would have no problem with the pick at this juncture. Stick him on special teams and let him earn BB's trust. Very little risk and potentially high reward.

8. Alonzo Highsmith

Don't know enough to comment although I remember him standing out from time to time last year when I watched Arkansas so fine pick at this point.

9. Nick Kasa

Now we're talking. Love this pick.


I realise that this probably comes across as a little too negative and for that I apologise. As a draft, it would satisfy me, it just doesn't excite me because there isn't that franchise type player in there like a #1 WR, elite OL or DL or an athletic beast like Ogletree.

 

[mayoclinic]

Another excellently considered mock.

1. Sylvester Williams.

If we're going for a one gap DT high, other than Sheldon Richardson, Williams would be my choice. However, I'm not overly keen on it as a first pick. Part of that is a philosophical difference between you and I. I just don't think the value on DT is all that great. Jesse Williams, Louis Nix, Sheldon Richardson and Hankins are special enough to provide value with the first pick but I don't think Williams is. I'd take him with a second rounder but only providing we got a top quality player first. Still like him mind.

2. Da'Rick Rogers

I'm conflicted here. There's a lot to like about Rogers' skillset but his speed and character concern me. If the Pats draft him then great, he's passed the interview, but personally, I think he's too much of a risk.

3. Kyle Long

I haven't seen him so can't comment. Love the measurables and bloodlines though. I'll take your word on his ability.

4. Ra'Shede Hageman

See my post above. As a situational rusher, he's a fine upside pick but his inability to hold up against the run would be a concern.

5. Brian Winters

Excellent pick. Would take this in a heartbeat. As you've said, he's an ideal choice to move inside. If I didn't love Cooper so much, Winters would be close to my second choice for interior OL.

6. Philip Thomas

This is ambitious. I've seen him talked about as a potential first rounder and possible best safety in the class which would be a nice though unlikely bargain at this point.

7. Tyrann Mathieu.

Would have no problem with the pick at this juncture. Stick him on special teams and let him earn BB's trust. Very little risk and potentially high reward.

8. Alonzo Highsmith

Don't know enough to comment although I remember him standing out from time to time last year when I watched Arkansas so fine pick at this point.

9. Nick Kasa

Now we're talking. Love this pick.


I realise that this probably comes across as a little too negative and for that I apologise. As a draft, it would satisfy me, it just doesn't excite me because there isn't that franchise type player in there like a #1 WR, elite OL or DL or an athletic beast like Ogletree.

Good comments, and not negative at all. A couple of thoughts:

1. Sylvester Wiliams isn't my first choice but I think he's a good value pick. He has enough ability to both one- and two-gap IMHO. I tried to make it clear in this mock that my top choices were all gone before the Pats pick. I think a trade back for Williams would be reasonable value.

2. Rogers. Like you, I'm conflicted. I like Tavon Austin and Cordarelle Patterson more. I like Markus Wheaton and Steadman Bailey as value picks, as I suggested in the mock. Rogers has issues. I could go either way, and am happy to let the Pats do their homework on him. He's not a personal binky of mine, but if he fell to the #80 range he would be a good value from a talent perspective.

3. Phillip Thomas. I don't really expect him to be available this late, though the draft is unpredictable. I just hadn't included him, and wanted to. I don't know if I would take a safety high enough for where he'll eventually go - probably day 2. Rob Rang has him as his #50 player on his big board. Other than Matt Elam, I may like him the best of the available safeties.

In general, the late picks (5 and on) were throwing darts at possible "values". It's a crapshoot as to who will be available. But this is a fairly deep draft, and there are talented players who should be available day 3.

 

[manxman2601]

Starting to hope Aqib Talib wasn't a waste of a 4th round pick. Was possibly the worst defensive player yesterday.

 

[mayoclinic]

Starting to hope Aqib Talib wasn't a waste of a 4th round pick. Was possibly the worst defensive player yesterday.

It certainly wasn't a good game from Talib. Not sure who miscommunicated on the play where he obviously thought he had safety coverage deep, and Tannehill overthrew the wide open receiver. There were several plays where his coverage was poor, no question. But the overall secondary play was still significantly improved from earlier in the year, and Tannehill was held to under 50% completion with no TDs.

 

[manxman2601]

It certainly wasn't a good game from Talib. Not sure who miscommunicated on the play where he obviously thought he had safety coverage deep, and Tannehill overthrew the wide open receiver. There were several plays where his coverage was poor, no question. But the overall secondary play was still significantly improved from earlier in the year, and Tannehill was held to under 50% completion with no TDs.

Agreed.

I think this is part McCourty at Safety, Arrington in the slot and particularly Dennard at the other Corner. Dennard isn't perfect and I worry about his long speed but he fights to make a play on every pass. And a more aggressive defense, Gregory blitzed at least twice for example.

 

[patsfaninpa]

It certainly wasn't a good game from Talib. Not sure who miscommunicated on the play where he obviously thought he had safety coverage deep, and Tannehill overthrew the wide open receiver. There were several plays where his coverage was poor, no question. But the overall secondary play was still significantly improved from earlier in the year, and Tannehill was held to under 50% completion with no TDs.

Bedard tweeted that we were in Cover 2. Only one who wasn't was Gregory. Thinks it was totally on him. Not Talib.

 

[Marqui]

Starting to hope Aqib Talib wasn't a waste of a 4th round pick. Was possibly the worst defensive player yesterday.

That's not really fair to say. Talib has the hardest assignment in this defense. They've been mostly leaving him 1-on-1 on his receivers to let the safeties help Arrington and the LBs. That's where the significant overall improvement in the coverage is coming from.

 

[manxman2601]

That's not really fair to say. Talib has the hardest assignment in this defense. They've been mostly leaving him 1-on-1 on his receivers to let the safeties help Arrington and the LBs. That's where the significant overall improvement in the coverage is coming from.

Nice point.

 

[Marqui]

Cannon hasn't seen one snap at OG I believe. They clearly don't think he fits in at that position.

Yeah, I don't know how anyone can keep saying that. It isn't going to happen.

You guys were saying?

 

[manxman2601]

You guys were saying?

Yes but if you look, Hernandez is looking over thinking "who's that at RG? Never seen him there before".

So he gets a look at RG after Mankins, Connolly, Thomas, McDonald and before Mitch Petrus and Zusevics. Not really feeling the Cannon and OG love.

Nice find though. Kudos.

 

[mayoclinic]

You guys were saying?

I'm hoping to see more of that against the Texans and 49ers. I'd love to throw Vollmer and Cannon together at JJ Watt and the Smiths, and have Ridley run behind it. It's amazing that Cannon is 350 lbs. - he doesn't look it.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Yes but if you look, Hernandez is looking over thinking "who's that at RG? Never seen him there before".

So he gets a look at RG after Mankins, Connolly, Thomas, McDonald and before Mitch Petrus and Zusevics. Not really feeling the Cannon and OG love.

Nice find though. Kudos.

How did Canon do at RG?

 

[Marqui]

With Love being demoted from his starting spot, I think DT is now a top need in the draft/FA next year. Love is a decent space-eater but he gets no penetration whatsoever. It got so bad that they felt the need to start Deaderick (a pure 5-tech imo) next to Wilfork.

It'll be hard to choose between a DT like Kawann Short/Jesse Williams or a high upside DE like Ansah/Jordan at the end of the first round.

 

[manxman2601]

With Love being demoted from his starting spot, I think DT is now a top need in the draft/FA next year. Love is a decent space-eater but he gets no penetration whatsoever. It got so bad that they felt the need to start Deaderick (a pure 5-tech imo) next to Wilfork.

It'll be hard to choose between a DT like Kawann Short/Jesse Williams or a high upside DE like Ansah/Jordan at the end of the first round.

Please no. Such a waste of a high draft pick (with a few exceptions: Hankins, Nix, Williams*).

*And he's hardly a pass rusher.

 

[mayoclinic]

Please no. Such a waste of a high draft pick (with a few exceptions: Hankins, Nix, Williams*).

*And he's hardly a pass rusher.

???

I'm not sure I understand you. Are you suggesting that DL in a waste of a high draft pick? Or are you down on some players in particular (e.g., Kawann Short)?

As I've stated earlier in this thread, the defensive guys that I could see the Pats possibly spending a pick in the 32 range on include:

- Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - will be a top 10 pick, so it's not realistic
- Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio St. - will probably be a top 15 pick
- Louis Nix, DT, Notre Dame - probably won't come out; if he does, will probably be a top 20 pick
- Sheldon Richardson, DT/DE, Missouri - some major question marks, and will probably be a top 20 pick, anyway
- Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
- Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon - unlikely that BB would take someone with his skill set this early, but not out of the question
- Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU - it all depends on the Pats' eval, and whether he's available; plenty of ceiling
- Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia - may not be available, and would the Pats take another LB that high?

I could add in someone like Sam Montgomery of LSU, though I would guess he'll be long gone. I think that if any of those players are available when the Pats pick they deserve serious consideration. The only offensive player who I personally have rated that highly is Jonathan Cooper, and he would obviously also have to be in the mix if he were available.

If the Pats had more draft picks I could see them potentially trading up again. But with so few picks it seems unlikely. And it all depends on how certain they are.

I do think that it's unlikely that we'll see a "wasted pick" in the 1st round. The Pats are too good in their system-specific scouting. It's not impossible, but it's pretty unlikely.