Re: hernandez practices
EDELMAN is almost irrelevant. He should be in on almost always when we play 3 WR's, and almost never when we play 1 or 2 WR sets. He would share the #3 WR spot with Branch, presumably getting almost all the reps himself. We ran 3 WR sets 62% of the time (58 times) last week. This should not affect the use of Welker at all.
I agree with you on the use of
should. Edelman and Branch should be WR3/WR4, and should be in on 3WR/4WR sets. However, given that Edelman had 23 snaps against the Titans and Welker was, as a result, limited to 43, I can't agree with you on the use of
is almost irrelevant. To me, seeing Welker get cut into to the tune of some 24 snaps makes the Edelman situation very relevant. No matter how many times people here try to claim Edelman didn't take snaps from Welker, it's clear he did, and it was something deliberate by the Patriots, as is easy to deduce just by listening to McDaniels.
The availability of HERNANDEZ in another issue entirely. Let's we flipped the offense and ran 2 WR, 2 TE 60% of the time and 3 WR, 1 TE 40% of the time. Then Hernandez would be expect to play on 60% of the reps or 56 reps last week.
QUESTION 1 and 2
Is 40% of the reps sufficient for Edelman and Branch? Is 40% enough to run the 3 WR offense. I certainly think "yes" to both questions.
QUESTION 3
Is 60% of the reps reasonable for Hernandez and 100% for Welker, 100% for Lloyd?
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300% is the number to allocate
Gronkowski
Hernandez/Fells
Welker
Edelman/Branch
This week the answer was essentially, 100%, 40%, 100% and 60%.
What is your answer when Hernandez and Edelman are both available? Or even when Hernandez comes back. If Hernandez is get more than 60% of the reps, either we run the 2 TE, 2 WR set more than 60% of the time, or Welker, Gronk or Lloyd has reduced reps.
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For simplicity we can ignore the few 3 TE plays.
Ok, using your 60/40 numbers, we start with 400% for the 4 spots
Lloyd - 90
Gronk - 90
Welker - 90
Hernandez - 90
Edelman/Branch/Fells - 40
RB - 100
I don't see why that, +/- a percentage point or two, would be a problem to achieve, but that would cut into Edelman's snap percentage (which is fine with me). Obviously, as you said, we ignored the 3TE sets, and we also ignored any 4WR sets. There's no need for Lloyd, Hernandez or Gronk to be playing 100% of the snaps.
Even if you wanted to cut Welker a bit more, down to say 85%, in order to keep Gronk up at 95%, there's still a long way to go before he's down to the ridiculous 64% he got in that Titans game, or even the 77% in the Cardinals game.