What is a realistic year-to-year expectation?

[MoLewisrocks]

Given the GOAT QB and a defensive "IBBWT" genius, nothing less than serious contention for the SB every year. IE a trip to the conference championship and maybe winning 1 SB out of every 3 or 4 years. That's reasonable, IMO.

Going out in the first round is not cutting it. 2 years in a row and this one doesn't look so good so far.

In a 32 team league that plays 16 regular season games a year in a violent physically and mentally demanding sport that doesn't allow for temporary injury replacements and employs a hard cap (relative to all others) and inverse draft to encourage parity...you don't remotely grasp the concept of reasonable...or the fact that every team has talent and the capacity to win on any given Sunday due to a myriad of variables. Just ask the Saints who lost to the suposedly happless Rams on Sunday...or ask the purported Dream Team in Philly who burst out of the gate and promptly landed on their talented asses. Or ask America's team who have been built annually for the last decade to win and changed HC's and coordinators to facilitate that and have nothing to show for all of it. Or ask the uber talented SD Superchargers who are still waiting along side the Dream Team for just one championship in anybody's lifetime...

It took this franchise 42 seasons to win just 1 championship and in all that preceding time they seldom competed for one. I said after they did they didn't owe me another damn thing, and frankly I had zero expectations that they would ever trump that achievement let alone cement it's significance with 3 out of 4 and a perfect regular season that carried them to within 2 minutes of a 4th in 7 after barely missing out on a 4th in 6...

Kraft is getting exactly what he bargained for and then some, whether recently entitled fanboys grasp that fact or not...stability. Fans can have all the philosophical differences with Bill that they want to, but the fact remains that nothing they propose would be guaranteed to have produced better results because for every action there is a counteraction and a boatload of variables that none of them has ever had to deal with... That's why most of you were ready to tank the 2008 season the instant Brady went down and the so called Walmart bagger stepped in. Bill knew better.

This team will always be in contention as long as one of he or Brady is left standing. Toy with pulling the reins or the rug out under from either one of them and you and all the rest of us will live to regret it. A decade from now there will be a lot less posters on this board with a lot more to gripe about. Bank on that... Meanwhile the rest of us can still appreciate whatever remaining time and effort they have to give us because it will be a cold day in football hell before we see their like or this seasonal level of consistency again...

 

[BradyManny]

Meanwhile the rest of us can still appreciate whatever remaining time and effort they have to give us because it will be a cold day in football hell before we see their like or this seasonal level of consistency again...

Everything in your post is spot on, except for the conclusion. You may have been content with the first one, and I was at the time - but that was before we realized the unique and once-in-a-lifetime combination we had at QB-HC.

Frankly, SB42 was what F'd everything up, being the complete tease of immortality that it was. Now that season remains immortalized, but for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, my reaction is - I, personally, feel an anxiousness with each passing year, and each title that slips through for the very reason that I appreciate what we are witnessing won't happen again for the NE Patriots in our lifetime again, so we have to milk it for what it's worth right now.

 

[Ron Sellers]

In general terms, the realistic expectation for the Patriots year over year is to be in the AFC Championship game.

I'll expand on my prior response to SanAngeloState one step further to see if that is a realistic expectation.


Since the start of free agency and the salary cap:

Number of teams that make it to the conference championship game every year: zero

Number of teams that make it to the conference championship game four straight years: one, the Eagles (2001-04)

Number of teams that make it to the CCG three straight years: two; the Cowboys (93-95) and the Packers (95-97).
The quickest return was ten years later by the Packers in 2007.


Five times in seven years: one, the Patriots (2001-2007)

Five times in eight years: one, the Eagles (2001-2008)


Four times in five years: one, the Patriots (2003-2007)

Four times in six years: none

Four times in seven years: one, the Steelers (2004-2010)


Three times in four years: Steelers (1994-97); Patriots (2001-04); Patriots (2003-06); Patriots (2004-07)

Three times in five years: 49ers (1993-97); Steelers (2001-05); Steelers (2004-08)


Any of the occurrences listed above I would consider to be rare - and though they are a goal that teams should shoot for to attempt to achieve, I can't see how they can be considered to be realistic expectations for any NFL team - including one with Brady and Belichick.




Yearly list of teams appearing in conference championship games since the start of free agency:
2010: Packers, Bears, Steelers, Jets
2009: Saints, Vikings, Colts, Jets
2008: Cardinals, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens
2007: Giants, Packers, Patriots, Chargers
2006: Bears, Saints, Colts, Patriots
2005: Seahawks, Panthers, Steelers, Broncos
2004: Eagles, Falcons, Patriots, Steelers
2003: Panthers, Eagles, Patriots, Colts
2002: Buccaneers, Eagles, Raiders, Titans
2001: Rams, Eagles, Patriots, Steelers
2000: Giants, Vikings, Ravens, Raiders
1999: Rams, Buccaneers, Titans, Jaguars
1998: Falcons, Vikings, Broncos, Jets
1997: Packers, 49ers, Broncos, Steelers
1996: Packers, Panthers, Patriots, Jaguars
1995: Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, Colts
1994: 49ers, Cowboys, Chargers, Steelers
1993: Cowboys, 49ers, Bills, Chiefs

 

[SanAngeloState]

In a 32 team league that plays 16 regular season games a year in a violent physically and mentally demanding sport that doesn't allow for temporary injury replacements and employs a hard cap (relative to all others) and inverse draft to encourage parity...you don't remotely grasp the concept of reasonable...or the fact that every team has talent and the capacity to win on any given Sunday due to a myriad of variables. Just ask the Saints who lost to the suposedly happless Rams on Sunday...or ask the purported Dream Team in Philly who burst out of the gate and promptly landed on their talented asses. Or ask America's team who have been built annually for the last decade to win and changed HC's and coordinators to facilitate that and have nothing to show for all of it. Or ask the uber talented SD Superchargers who are still waiting along side the Dream Team for just one championship in anybody's lifetime...

It took this franchise 42 seasons to win just 1 championship and in all that preceding time they seldom competed for one. I said after they did they didn't owe me another damn thing, and frankly I had zero expectations that they would ever trump that achievement let alone cement it's significance with 3 out of 4 and a perfect regular season that carried them to within 2 minutes of a 4th in 7 after barely missing out on a 4th in 6...

Kraft is getting exactly what he bargained for and then some, whether recently entitled fanboys grasp that fact or not...stability. Fans can have all the philosophical differences with Bill that they want to, but the fact remains that nothing they propose would be guaranteed to have produced better results because for every action there is a counteraction and a boatload of variables that none of them has ever had to deal with... That's why most of you were ready to tank the 2008 season the instant Brady went down and the so called Walmart bagger stepped in. Bill knew better.

This team will always be in contention as long as one of he or Brady is left standing. Toy with pulling the reins or the rug out under from either one of them and you and all the rest of us will live to regret it. A decade from now there will be a lot less posters on this board with a lot more to gripe about. Bank on that... Meanwhile the rest of us can still appreciate whatever remaining time and effort they have to give us because it will be a cold day in football hell before we see their like or this seasonal level of consistency again...

I remotely "grasp" all those things. I still wanted them to win 3 or 4 more before Brady retires. I wanted them to be the unquestioned greatest NFL dynasty of all time, the montreal Canadiens or the Yankees of the 50s type of thing. Is that "reasonable"? Maybe not. But after Brady is gone, so is any chance of a dynasty for the rest of my life anyway.

What's with all the grandstanding to the "lesser fans" on this site by the professionals?

 

[Ron Sellers]

You make a good point, it hasn't been done that much.


But, this is a special team, or supposed to be. GOAT QB and Belichick...I expect them to content and by contending win...I actually expected pre this season for them to win another 3-4 before brady retires in 7-8 years. So yes, I guess I'm a little unrealistic.

I don't get how a defensive genius has a defense this bad. I mean it was embarassing watching roethlisberger carve them up.

I understand the thought process with Brady and can't disagree. And I'm completely on board with you regarding how bad the defense is. I guess I just make a wider distinction between what I am hoping for and what I consider to be a realistic expectation of the outcome. We just don't have history on our side to be expecting a lot more championships given the constraints of free agency and the salary cap.

 

[IllegalContact]

talk about slicing info on behalf of your loved ones


I think the tough part about recent problems with the team is that everyon eand their mother has known for years that the team needs to improve on the pass rush. one could argue that, for the most part, they have not even tried. I don't call grabbing carter and anderson off of the scrap heap and changing the scheme at a moments notice 'trying'.

this year's 4-3 experiment has been a fiasco and taken the defensive unit a bunch of steps backwards........BB is starting to remind me of Pitino....is he going to blow up the defense again in the next offseason?

the defense flat out SUCKS, and its not like the opportunity to obtain the right players was not there.....it was.....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Everything in your post is spot on, except for the conclusion. You may have been content with the first one, and I was at the time - but that was before we realized the unique and once-in-a-lifetime combination we had at QB-HC.

Frankly, SB42 was what F'd everything up, being the complete tease of immortality that it was. Now that season remains immortalized, but for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, my reaction is - I, personally, feel an anxiousness with each passing year, and each title that slips through for the very reason that I appreciate what we are witnessing won't happen again for the NE Patriots in our lifetime again, so we have to milk it for what it's worth right now.

Frankly it was the entire 2007 season that F'ed everything up for way too many fans...

 

[BradyManny]

Frankly it was the entire 2007 season that F'ed everything up for way too many fans...

Fair enough. And Spygate was a big part of that.

From my own perspective, I know I've gotten way too caught up in that whole thing and let the national perspective of this team bother me too much, post 2007. There's just so much more noise to put up with now.

 

[Deus Irae]

Everything in your post is spot on, except for the conclusion. You may have been content with the first one, and I was at the time - but that was before we realized the unique and once-in-a-lifetime combination we had at QB-HC.

Frankly, SB42 was what F'd everything up, being the complete tease of immortality that it was. Now that season remains immortalized, but for all the wrong reasons.

Anyway, my reaction is - I, personally, feel an anxiousness with each passing year, and each title that slips through for the very reason that I appreciate what we are witnessing won't happen again for the NE Patriots in our lifetime again, so we have to milk it for what it's worth right now.

With this coach/QB combo, and with the talent that was surrounding it combined with the draft bounty the team had, it should have been expected that this team gets to the final four every year until Brady's decline becomes significant barring a 2008 situation. Poor decisionmaking by the front office combined with poor drafting of defensive players has undercut that, unfortunately.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

With this coach/QB combo, and with the talent that was surrounding it combined with the draft bounty the team had, it should have been expected that this team gets to the final four every year until Brady's decline becomes significant barring a 2008 situation. Poor decisionmaking by the front office combined with poor drafting of defensive players has undercut that, unfortunately.

Only in myopic contrarian land. No team can be legitimately be expected to get to the final four every year for a decade or more...for the simple reason that unanticipated **** beyond your control will always happen and the cumulative toll it takes on players to perform for 19 weeks in and of itself takes a toll as the 2005 Patriots discovered.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Realisticly....

* you should expect your team to win the superbowl once in slightly over three decades.

* about every decade and a half the team should win the conference

* once every four years win the division

* and be a wild card team once every 8 years.

We have done pretty good by those standards.

 

[Deus Irae]

Realisticly....

* you should expect your team to win the superbowl once in slightly over three decades.

* about every decade and a half the team should win the conference

* once every four years win the division

* and be a wild card team once every 8 years.

We have done pretty good by those standards.

The question asked was about year-to-year expectations. Since the back-to-back SB years (final 4 expected), and other than 2005, with all the changes and the Johnson/Bruschi situations, and 2008 with Brady going down, what years did you not expect the Patriots to be in the final four?

 

[BradyManny]

Realisticly....

* you should expect your team to win the superbowl once in slightly over three decades.

* about every decade and a half the team should win the conference

* once every four years win the division

* and be a wild card team once every 8 years.

We have done pretty good by those standards.

Does this apply when you have a HOF coach and HOF QB?

Look, as soon as those two talents are gone, yes - the standards revert back to what the bulk of the other 31 fanbases deal with.

 

[Ron Sellers]

2008: realistic expectations to make it to the final four went down the toilet in the first quarter of the first game.

2009: realistic expectations to make it to the final four went down in early September once again when Seymour was traded.

2010: team was in the second year of rebuilding on the fly; realistic expectations should have been about nine wins.

2011: due to the previous 14-win season fans and media assume Pats should be back in the Super Bowl; realistic expectations should have been on maybe a 50-50 chance, if not less, of making it to the AFCCG as few if any bother to take notice that record was a mirage.



The three championships in 2001-2004 plus the near misses in 2006 and 2007 have caused many to think the team should be expected to do the same ever year. What most fail to see is that the team vastly overachieved in 2010; instead they are portrayed as vastly underachieving.

 

[JJDChE]

Hey, whaddya want? At least half the population are morons. You can't expect to avoid them all the time, especially in a public forum like this.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think Bob Kraft answered this question a long time ago. He has repeatedly said that he wants to field a team every year that is "competitive." With Brady and Belichick, he's seen that fulfilled at the highest levels, but who knows what will happen when one or both of them are gone.

Kraft doesn't set a "wins" goal and isn't as dumb as Snyder or Johnson whose teams promise Super Bowls.

Kraft wants to field a competitive team...a team that's contending to be in the post-season every year. In the NFL "competitive" can mean 14 wins and it can mean nine or even eight wins, with which you can be in the hunt well into December.

Great franchises go through up-cycles and down-cycles...just ask the Cowboys and Steelers. If you understand anything about the NFL, expecting 10 or 11 wins or to win a division or even be in the playoffs every year is unrealistic. So, Kraft has set his objective at being "competitive" and I think that that "is what it is."

Most people on this Board haven't known anything but great success or near success in their Pats. So, they set their expectations based on Super Bowl games and Conference Championships.

But, in the long run of the NFL, that is highly unrealistic and comes only in cycles, sometimes decades apart, even for the best franchises. If you're truly a fan of the NFL and the Pats, be ready to follow them for eight or nine or more seasons when nine wins and a shot at a Wild Card berth, despite the best efforts of competent management and coaching, look good, but when the team is fighting every week. Then, you're a fan of the game and the team.

 

[NJPatsfan26]

I think Bob Kraft answered this question a long time ago. He has repeatedly said that he wants to field a team every year that is "competitive." With Brady and Belichick, he's seen that fulfilled at the highest levels, but who knows what will happen when one or both of them are gone.

Kraft doesn't set a "wins" goal and isn't as dumb as Snyder or Johnson whose teams promise Super Bowls. Kraft wants to field a competitive team...a team that's contending to be in the post-season every year. Beyond that, I don't know if there is an answer to the question or even if the question itself is "realistic."

Great franchises go through up-cycles and down-cycles...just ask the Cowboys and Steelers. Expecting to win a division or even be in the playoffs every year is unrealistic if you understand anything about the NFL. So, Kraft has set his objective at being "competitive" and I think that that "is what it is."

Very good post.....

We have been blessed with the outcomes of the past 10 years. Having Belichick, Brady and Kraft has made our group very successful. I am proud of our team.

 

[goheels22002]

The question asked was about year-to-year expectations. Since the back-to-back SB years (final 4 expected), and other than 2005, with all the changes and the Johnson/Bruschi situations, and 2008 with Brady going down, what years did you not expect the Patriots to be in the final four?

Exactly. This team, through enormous transition, continues to be a top tier AFC team with a legitimate shot to be in the AFC Championship where it can beat anybody. The playoff ousters in both the last two season were upsets.

Everybody who has a shot has two losses in the AFC. Like it or not, this season looks like another one where 70% of the teams will still be mathematically in the playoff hunt with three weeks left in the season. I love that about the NFL.

Year-to-year with Belichick, Brady and Kraft, I think it is realistic to expect 11-5 or 12-4 or better and that's what we've gotten for 10 years. Take any one of them out of the equation and it's time to recalculate.

 

[BradysBunch12]

I don't think anyone on here expects to win or make the SB every year. The disappointment is that we've become the team we always made fun of when we were winning championships...the Colts...great offense, top tier QB that puts up great stats...one of the worst defenses in the league, no veteran leadership or heart, etc and that Belichick has done NOTHING to fix this problem the past few years. He's so arrogant that he thinks he can do everything himself and that his ways are the only ways.

With a top 5 all time QB, there is no excuse for us not having deep playoff runs the past few years. You're not going to win the SB every year, but when you come out and get your butts handed to you by the Ravens and Jets at home in first round games where you were overwhelming favorites, there's a problem.

The defense we have out there now, 90 percent of the players look lost and like they wouldn't even beat a college team.

My hopes/expectations...1 more SB win before Brady retires. And I don't think that's being unrealistic at all. Unfortunately might not happen if we don't toughen up.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Realisticly....

* you should expect your team to win the superbowl once in slightly over three decades.

* about every decade and a half the team should win the conference

* once every four years win the division

* and be a wild card team once every 8 years.

We have done pretty good by those standards.

Thanks for doing the math. In the perspective department, I'd only add that, after the Noll/Bradshaw era the Steelers went 15 years without an SB appearance and 25 years without a trophy; after the Landry/Staubach era, the Cowboys went 13 years without an appearance in the big game...there are other examples, like the niners and the Redskins.

Four franchises have never even gone to an SB and 14 have only gone once or twice.

Of the 32 NFL franchises, only 18 have ever won an SB, leaving 14 in the cold.