Welcome to PatsFans.com

What is a realistic year-to-year expectation?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ivanvamp, Nov 2, 2011.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    2,698
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -0

    Lots of handwringing over losing a road game to an elite team that played great by one score. Listening to sports talk radio this week, hearing about the demise of the Patriots, etc., etc..

    It got me thinking. What is a realistic year-to-year expectation for this franchise? I've mentioned things like this in the past, but I'll do it again, just to give some perspective.

    *The great Steeler dynasty of the 1970s, during their 8-year run of greatness, won the SB four times but *didn't* win the SB four times as well.

    *The great Cowboys teams from 1991-1998 won three SBs (all of them early in the run), had 7 out of 8 seasons where they won 10+ games, had one losing season, and *didn't* win the SB in 5 of those 8 years.

    *The great Colts' run in this decade, from 1999-2010 (let's not count this year), featured 11 of 12 seasons with 10+ wins, two SB appearances, and one SB title. But in 11 of their 12 years, they *didn't* win the SB.

    *The great Steelers' run in this decade, from 2001-2010 (again, let's not count this year), featured 7 of 10 seasons with 10+ wins, 2 SB titles, 3 SB appearances, and 8 of the 10 seasons where they *didn't* win the SB.

    *The Dolphins had an awesome extended run from 1970-1985, 16 seasons, but that can be broken up into two periods: the Griese era and the Woodley/Marino era (yes I know Griese played several years before this run, and Marino's run lasted past 1985...but I'm just taking the best chunk of these years). In the Griese era (1970-1979), they won 10+ games 9 of 10 years, went to 3 SBs, and won 2 SB titles, but had 8 of 10 years where they *didn't* win the SB. In the Woodley/Marino era, lasting 6 seasons, they won 10+ games 4 times and didn't even get to a SB. In total, in these 16 years, they had 12 seasons of 10+ wins, 3 SB appearances, and 2 SB titles.

    *The great 49er teams with the longest sustained run of dominance, from 1981-1998 (18 seasons), can also be broken up into two parts, but their continuity seemed to be more seamless than with the Dolphins, because they went right from Montana to Young. In the Montana era (1981-1990), they had 9 of the 10 seasons with 10+ wins, went to 4 SBs, and won 4 SB titles. In the Young era (1991-1998), they had 8 of 8 seasons where they won 10+ games, went to one SB, and won one SB title. In total, in these 18 years, they had 17 of the 18 years where they won 10+ games, went to, and won, 5 SB titles.

    Meanwhile, let's look at the Patriots' run from 2001-2010. In those 10 seasons, they won 10+ games in 9 of them, went to 4 SBs and won 3 SB titles.

    So back to the question: What is a realistic (not a fantasy) expectation for this team on a year-to-year basis? Even the great Joe Montana went three years without winning a playoff game (1985, 1986, 1987 - lost in the 1st round all 3 of those seasons, once, inexplicably, to an 8-7 Minnesota Vikings team by 12 points at home).

    In my view, a realistic expectation is that, every year, this team wins 10+ games, is in the fight for the AFC East division title, and, given the crapshoot that the NFL playoffs are in their one-and-done format, has at least a puncher's chance to get to the SB.

    I think that's realistic in both ways - i.e., they should be good enough with their coaching and personnel to pull that off, but it also takes into consideration just how damned hard it is to win it all, and gives credit to the other really, really good teams in the league as well, who also have good coaching and good players.

    Of course I'd like more than that. But to *expect* more than that is not realistic and, frankly, not fair.
  2. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2005
    Messages:
    19,949
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -0

    Most of us know what reality entails. Those who don't wimply will not be swayed...

    Kraft is getting more than he bargained for. A consistently competitive team that has a shot year in and year out - even when the franchise goes down. Which is why the calls for him to step in and fix this double digit winning mess are moronic...but that is par for the course in sports radio and message board land where the core demographic is malcontent males between 18-45 with nothing better to do than whine about guys who live the lives they can only dream about living...
  3. RayClay

    RayClay On the Roster

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2005
    Messages:
    18,395
    Likes Received:
    251
    Ratings:
    +650 / 6 / -9

    #75 Jersey

    A realistic year to year expectation would be far less than what we actually have gotten, so I enjoy it, personally. I came to the conclusion long ago that the only way to increase your chances of winning it all is to be in the running almost every year.

    This window stuff is bull****. If you're honest you could look back at many great teams that were unlucky or injured and lots of teams that were rebuilding or mediocre who got hot and won it. The 2001 Patriots and one of those (2000s) Steeler teams at least.

    If you aren't in the playoffs, you can't win
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2011
  4. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2006
    Messages:
    15,720
    Likes Received:
    12
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    #12 Jersey

    I don't see a problem with some who want changes on defense when it doesn't make a big deal about how many regular season wins the Pats have,it's what happens in January that counts,double digit wins mean crap if you go one and done.

    People have seen a defense for the past several years whose faults are hidden behind the arm of Brady and once the playoffs begin and it's a bullseye on Brady's back,the defense is exposed for what they are .... A pile of sh!t.

    Yeah,we have had a great decade and we give Belichick and Kraft all the accolades for that,,but thats no reason to accept the same putrid defense to continue year after year....there are changes that need to be made there,signing aged defensive players on the decline and trading down in the draft for multiple picks while Brady gets older and older is not the answer anymore.
  5. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    9,771
    Likes Received:
    31
    Ratings:
    +83 / 4 / -0

    There are now four elite QBs in this league, and for most of the last decade, there have been two or three. The entire time, we've had one of them.

    We oughta compete for a title every year.

    The reality is - if Asante Samuel picks off Eli Manning in SB42, we're complaining about none of this. We would've gone down as the greatest single season team of all time, and maybe the greatest dynasty of all time. We had a taste of what that felt like and had it ripped away from us - of course, as fans, we're hungry for more titles as I hope and expect the team is as well.

    To hope for anything less - especially after getting so close to complete football immortality - is a loser mentality, and not something Belichick would subscribe to. We have a window here with Brady & Belichick - it will NEVER be like this again. Aim high while it lasts.
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2011
  6. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2007
    Messages:
    11,047
    Likes Received:
    20
    Ratings:
    +74 / 0 / -1

    #12 Jersey

    We are spoilt overall compared to other fans.

    That said, BB has a right to be critiqued since '09. The NFL is a watered down league, and Manning showed from 2002 till last year that an elite QB can make an average team look alot better than they are and keep them competitive year to year. Until this team gets a couple playoff wins at least, the case can be made that Brady is carrying a team that has not been constructed properly in recent years. He's had 3 offseasons to rebuild this defense and it's currently bottom half of the league.
  7. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,678
    Likes Received:
    183
    Ratings:
    +458 / 6 / -5

    Hope != expect.

    I hope the Pats will win the SB every year.

    I expect the Pats to be competitive the entire season, and not be playing out the string in December.
  8. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    2,698
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -0

    I don't disagree to aim high. But what I listed at the beginning - 10+ wins every year, in the running for the SB - that *IS* aiming high. How many teams in the history of the league can claim a 10-year time span like what the Patriots have had (and continue to have)? Not very many.

    Other great teams with HOF quarterbacks (Elway's Broncos, Marino's Dolphins, Kelly's Bills, Favre's Packers, Staubach's Cowboys, Young's 49ers, Manning's Colts.....all have had great runs, but none were as good as what Brady has put together. The only two that compare are Montana's 49ers and Bradshaw's Steelers. That's it.

    We are STILL in the midst of one of the three greatest runs any franchise has ever had in the history of the sport (at least during the SB era). It hasn't ended yet.

    There's aiming high and there's lunacy. Some fans expect a SB title every year, and that's lunacy. It isn't lunacy to think that at some point before Brady retires, the Pats will get one more title. That's my hope anyway.
  9. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    9,771
    Likes Received:
    31
    Ratings:
    +83 / 4 / -0

    I'm sure some fans expect a SB title every year - and that's unreasonable. But most don't. Or shouldn't, at least.

    But to compete for a SB title every year is a legitimate expectation every year given the fact we have Brady, Belichick, and the rest of the league is largely riff-raff. We have a huge competitive advantage over everyone given we have are in the top tier at quarterback play - the most important position - and coaching, which is equally important. Much of the league struggles greatly in BOTH categories.

    The fact of the matter is, when February rolls around, it will be 7 years since the Patriots last won a Super Bowl. Semantics to me, given what happened in February of 2008...

    But still, 7 years - that's a long time for a team that during the entire time has probably been one of the two or three best teams EVERY YEAR.

    That's getting close to a decade. That's almost 2 terms of Presidency. That's the majority of a dog's life. That's the entirety of elementary school for a child. And of course, that's also a huge chunk of Tom Brady's career. It's a huge chunk of the window that we have a right to expect greatness in from our football team.

    So naturally, fans will be a little anxious. Especially when it's highly unlikely we have another 7 years of this run.

    When it's over, we might not win a title for decades and decades...so right now, there must be a sense of urgency.
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2011
  10. SanAngeloState

    SanAngeloState Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    1,289
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Given the GOAT QB and a defensive "IBBWT" genius, nothing less than serious contention for the SB every year. IE a trip to the conference championship and maybe winning 1 SB out of every 3 or 4 years. That's reasonable, IMO.

    Going out in the first round is not cutting it. 2 years in a row and this one doesn't look so good so far.
  11. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,441
    Likes Received:
    139
    Ratings:
    +277 / 10 / -26

    Perspective and a long view is necessary.. the once vaunted Miami Franchise is in the shytter, San Diego has lost 3 in a row, Indianapolis is not ready for post Manning.. New Orleans lost to St. Louis last weekend, as parity rules on any given Sunday is becoming more and more true.

    Some folks should revisit the angst we all felt in the early 90's, when this team was the laughing stock of the league.. bad coaching, bad players and bad organization..

    The reality it is difficult to stay at the top.. Kraft/Belichick will try to keep this team at the top, but it is difficult to stay there, mistakes are made, players get hurt..

    One thing folks fail to recognize is that BB has the heart to get rid of a player who is a malcontent or who is not performing up to expectations, and does not matter what any says....

    My expectations are to minimally have a winning season every year, and make the playoffs..
  12. borg

    borg Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2004
    Messages:
    3,915
    Likes Received:
    69
    Ratings:
    +156 / 11 / -13

    In general terms, the realistic expectation for the Patriots year over year is to be in the AFC Championship game. The combination of Brady (Best QB in AFC), Bill Belichick (most consistent coach in past decade), and twice as many premium draft picks as any other upper tier team should guarantee some playoff success every year.

    For this year, 8 weeks into the season, I fear that making the playoffs will be a challenge. Quality QBs expose this defense as frauds and secondary/LB depth issues may play a huge factor as more games are played and injuries occur later in the season. It also must be mentioned that the offensive production has drastically declined as the season has progressed. The Patriots offense had an advantage coming into this season because the group returned 10 starters and they were able to light up the score board. Now that other teams have settled in and are up to speed, the airshow has come back to earth.
  13. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    2,698
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -0

    Only one team in the league has fewer losses than the Patriots (Green Bay). How is it that it "doesn't look so good so far" for this year? The Pats just lost on the road to an elite team by one score. These kinds of things do happen in the NFL. The Pats are going to end up winning 11-13 games and be a team with a very real chance to get to the Super Bowl this year. They will have, at an absolute minimum, even as currently construed, a puncher's chance to beat ANYONE in the playoffs, no exceptions. And if their defense improves even a little, their chances go up dramatically.

    I don't think they strike the same kind of fear in opponents that they once did, but I don't think any team in the league is exactly dying to face the Patriots in the playoffs, knowing that an even semi-hot Brady can take them out.
  14. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2006
    Messages:
    42,021
    Likes Received:
    437
    Ratings:
    +1,315 / 59 / -71

    Disable Jersey

    When you ignore the long term issues (suck defense, WR problem) because the short term results (current record) allow you to pretend everything is alright, you end up a loser in the end.
  15. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2007
    Messages:
    2,698
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +20 / 0 / -0

    I'm not ignoring anything. The Pats' D needs to improve, and there have been some significantly questionable personnel moves recently. I've said for 2 years what some of the issues are with this team (and gotten ripped for that here in this forum). I'm just saying that, despite all that, they STILL have a legit chance at going to the Super Bowl, even now.
  16. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2005
    Messages:
    15,259
    Likes Received:
    86
    Ratings:
    +173 / 2 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    I don't speak for all fans - god knows- but I will say that what fans should expect is that the team be competitive in their division, be a playoff contenter, and by being a playoff contenter, be a contender for the championship.

    So now look at that expectation and how it relates to the Patriots and other teams over the past 10 years including this year so far.

    Only 2 (maybe 3 eagles?) teams have has winning records every year for the past 10 years. This year the Colts are 0-8 and the Patriots are 5-2. It looks the Patriots should have the 11 straight year with a winning record. so 31 (or 30) other teams are not close to that.

    18 out of 32 teams have not made it to the SB in that 10 year period. Patriots have gone to 4. Only 7 of 32 teams have won a SB in the past 11 years, 25 have not, with the Patriots winning 3.

    I can remember having lunch with a coach of the Bills in the early 90's when they were very good. He never said it but I could tell that he and the rest of the NFL looked down their noses at the Patriots then. Not any more!
  17. Ron Sellers

    Ron Sellers Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,899
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    How many teams won a Super Bowl ever three or four years since the NFL instituted a salary cap and free agency? It's a very short list:

    • Cowboys - 1993, 1995
    • Broncos - 1997, 1998
    • Patriots - 2001, 2003, 2004
    • Steelers - 2005, 2008

    While that is certainly something to strive to achieve, I would not consider that to be a "realistic year-to-year expectation".

    Even if you lower the standard to winning the conference and making it to the Super Bowl, the list doesn't get much longer; the only addition is the Packers in 1996 and 1997.

    Perhaps my definition simply differs from yours, but I wouldn't call what has been accomplished just five times by 32 teams over 18 years a realistic expectation.
  18. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2006
    Messages:
    42,021
    Likes Received:
    437
    Ratings:
    +1,315 / 59 / -71

    Disable Jersey

    I'm sorry that you thought I was referring to you rather than just responding to you. When I said the "when you ignore", I was referring to the team. My apologies for the poor wording.

    However, unless someone lights a fire under the asses of that defense, this team has no shot at going to the Super Bowl.
  19. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2006
    Messages:
    9,771
    Likes Received:
    31
    Ratings:
    +83 / 4 / -0

    But it's all cyclical - until this year, we looked down our noses at the Bills ever since their AFC dominance ended.

    Again, once Brady & Belichick are gone, the Pats could turn right into a perennial bottom-dweller. We need not apologize for how spoiled we may seem as fans right now - let's just hope we win as many titles in this window as possible.
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2011
  20. SanAngeloState

    SanAngeloState Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 16, 2010
    Messages:
    1,289
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    You make a good point, it hasn't been done that much.


    But, this is a special team, or supposed to be. GOAT QB and Belichick...I expect them to content and by contending win...I actually expected pre this season for them to win another 3-4 before brady retires in 7-8 years. So yes, I guess I'm a little unrealistic.

    I don't get how a defensive genius has a defense this bad. I mean it was embarassing watching roethlisberger carve them up.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>