Focusing on STs play is key. It's probably a useful exercise to look at STs and figure out your starters and reserves at key roles, much like we do with offense defense. (Sounds like a fun way to spend the post-game.) Thinking along those lines:
Assume that the players on all 4 ST units are "starters" and on the roster by default. Assume that players on 3ST units are likely starters and on the roster, if they are good enough to provide depth on offense or defense.
Aiken, Woods, and Alexander are those ST starters. None of them are ever going to be anyone's offensive or defensive binky, but they have important roles on the team. Woods was a (the?) top ST tackler last year. It's hard to ignore that. He also is also a reliable OLB in run support, which despite being an unsexy role for an OLB, is the first job of the front seven in the base defense. Alexander had a big role in the 2nd string defense last week. It will be interesting to see how many of his reps at ILB and on ST go to Guyton this week, as he is the only LB that is faster than Alexander, and speed is king on the coverage units. Aiken is a captain and gets reps on offense. It's clear that BB loves both him and Alexander.
Last season Slater was a four-team ST player, but with his injury, his roles have been filled by McCourty and Sammy Morris, and (Sergio Brown, I think, at gunner). Brown likely won't make the team, which means they'll need to find someone to line up at gunner, across from:
Arrington. Arrington is a Lock.
McGowan seems to be on lots of people's radar for a cut, but he was on 3 ST units last week. That suggests that he will end-up in Lockett's old ST slot, since he can't seem to get on the field. It's not clear that McGowan's dime DB spot goes away with Bodden's return, given that he's provides a hybrid S/LB role in run support in that package. Doubt we'll see 4CBs and 2S in the dime anytime soon. If he overruns another play or three, Chung could move into that role with Sanders behind him, but I still don't see that possibility changing the roster.
I was definitely suprised when Rodak listed Ninkovich as one of the guys on 3 first-string ST units. Considering that and his pass-rushing motor (if not out-and-out prowess), he and Woods could be the 5th and 6th OLB (or 4th and 5th if you count Burgess as the 7th DL). There was a lot of discussion of Murrell as a ST player, so perhaps he could move into Woods or Ninkovich's role, if roster spots get tight. It will be interesting to see if he gets reps on STs this week.
I don't see a 10th OL or 7th DL (aside from Burgess). We'll be relying on the practice squad for extra depth, should the big guys on either side of the ball take a collective beating for a week or two. Bussey, Larsen, OBurger, Wendell, and Welch are all candidates for this role at OL (although I expect 2 of those 5 will make the 53), and Love and Deaderick are likely candidates on DL.
As much as I'm pulling for him, I see Wheatley as a guy in need of a job on this team. I thought I'd see more of him on ST, and I thought he might get a shot in Wilhite's nickel-slot CB slot while Bodden was out. He continues to look good in coverage, but if he's only getting his shot against 2nd-string WRs, he might not be shining in practice against the Pat's arsenal of receivers. I refuse to take him off my 53 yet, but if he doesn't get Wilhite's reps, either one of our core STers or one of our LBs (the 3 lowest of whom on the defensive depth chart are top STers) will have to go.
