Synovia

There's no way in hell you sign Ellsbury for $15M a year. If he does anything remotely close next year to what hes doing this year, you're looking at 6/150 AT A MINIMUM when he hits FA.

You might be able to get a lower AAV if you're buying out ARB years, but there's still going to be a bunch of years at 25M.

Synovia

Pedroia was still a ways away from ARB. Ells is in ARB. They're a drastically different situation. Pedroia signed with 2 years of service time. Ellsbury will have 4 at the end of the season. He's significantly closer to FA, has made significantly more money than Pedroia had, and has significantly less reason to give a discount for security.


Some of the years of Pedroia's that the contract replaced were $400K years. The two years you'd be buying out for Ells (who is making $3M) would probably be in the range of $8M and $15M.

chicowalker

Unless the market changes, Ellsbury's not getting $25mm per year. While he's having a very good year, he's still not close to the best player in the game, and even if he replicates his performance next year, that will make exactly 2 years where he's been a very good player.

Synovia

Not close to the best player in the game? I'm going to have to strongly disagree with that.

Here's the top 10 position players in baseball by WAR (Wins above replacement) so far this year:

Bautista : 6.8
Pedroia : 6.7
Tulo: 6.0
Victorino: 5.8
Ellsbury: 5.7
Zobrist: 5.6
Reyes: 5.6
McCuthen:5.6
Holliday:5.5
Upton:5.5

Guys who play CF, or SS, play it well, and can hit, are insanely valuable. He absolutely is one of the best players in the game, if hes anything close to what we're seeing this year.

We gave Agon 22M a year, and hes a 5.1WAR player so far this year. We gave Crawford 21m and Ellsbury is putting up a better year than Crawford ever has. Jason Werth got 20M a year, and hes never been better than 5WAR, and is 3WAR most years.

The only differense between Ellsbury is he has a shorter track record (although he was a 5WAR player in '08). If he does it another year, hes absolutely going to get a HUGE contract.

chicowalker

right -- WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game

If you want to pretend that list is the 10 best players in the game, you're welcome to your opinion. But how many of them are making $20mm+?

AGon got $22mm per year after several years of above average performance and a few years of elite performance.

Crawford got $21mm after several years of performance. What he's doing this year is irrelevant to what he was paid this winter.

"The only difference between Ellsbury is he has a shorter track record" -- well, yeah, like I said, he's done it for 1 year. next year will make 2.

But I didn't say he won't get a huge contract if he does it again, though, did I? I said he won't get $25mm.

TheSolderKing

those guys were all Boras? That seems odd. I hope we can buy Jacoby's out
and extend him yrs longer

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Synovia

WAR adjusts by position, so it allows you to compare players at different position. A good defensive CF doesn't need to hit nearly as well as an average RF to be just as valuable (good).

The Jose Bautista/Pedroia comparison is a good example of this: Bautista is a much better hitter than Pedroia, but hes a crappy right fielder and a crappy 3B. Pedroia, on the other hand, plays a much tougher position, and is spectacular at it. Becuase of that, they essentially have the same value.

Jacoby Ellsbury, right now, is the 5th best (position) player in baseball. If he can keep up performance like that, hes going to get paid like hes the 5th best player in baseball.

As to how much the rest of the guys make, most of them were signed before they'd established they were elite. If Ellsbury keeps this performance up, and hits FA, he's absolutely going to get an ENORMOUS contract.

I'll bring up Jayson Werth again. He got 19M/year, despite being older than Ellsbury will be, playing a position further down the defensive spectrum, not doing it as well, and being about the same quality of hitter.

Patriot Missile

He's going to be in a Sox uni for a long time. Drew, Dice K, Ortiz. these are all expiring contracts that will be taken into account when they ink this kid to 6 year deal 100,000,000 dollar deal with a option to kill it in year 5 so he can get the last big fat contract.

chicowalker

Right... as I said, "WAR is best player relative to his position, not best in the game"

Being valuable relative to a position doesn't mean you're the better player -- it means you're better than the other guys who play the same position.


Again: "...I didn't say he won't get a huge contract if he does it again, though, did I? I said he won't get $25mm..."


You can bring him up as many times as you want. Most people thought he was vastly overpaid (same goes for Crawford, btw), and while he was a year older, he also had an extra year of good performance under his belt.

Synovia

What exactly does "best player in the game" mean. You're going to have to define that.

I woudl argue that positional scarcity plays a huge part of that. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the game, but hes probably not the best PLAYER.