MORSE: Projection For Patriots vs Bills Week 15 Showdown
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Who thought the Patriots would be playing in Week 15 to clinch the AFC East Division? On the first day of practice, Head Coach Mike Vrabel said to the players behind closed doors that his goal was to win the Division. That can become a reality this weekend.
Oddsmakers have made the Bills 1.5-point favorites, and I can’t blame them because of the Patriots’ easy schedule. I guarantee you Mike Vrabel will use this disrespect to motivate his players. This is a hat and a T-shirt game, and the Patriots don’t lose hat and T-shirt games at home.
The Patriots are the only team to really hold down James Cook this season, as he ran for less than 50 yards against the Patriots in Week 5. That will be much harder to accomplish in Week 15. The Patriots will be without stud Milton Williams. Buffalo’s play-calling has been more consistent, and they have been emphasizing getting the ball in Cook’s hands.
The Patriots’ secondary will have a big advantage on the Bills’ Wide Receivers. Christian Gonzalez is rounding back into the form of a shutdown corner. Carlton Davis can hold his own with any receiver the Bills have on their roster. That leaves the TEs and RBs as Josh Allen’s primary targets. This also happens to be one of the Patriots’ biggest weaknesses.
Drake Maye is a candidate for the league MVP. Maye will need to be on top of his game to give them a chance to win. He has not proven that he can lead a team from behind in the 4th Quarter yet. It’s not that he can’t do it, the team has jumped out to so many leads that he hasn’t had to. I also feel that the Offense has been held back in the second half of games because Josh McDaniels doesn’t want to show too much.
How will the team play coming off the bye? There is no question that they needed the break badly. I think it’s cruel that the league has the final bye week in week 14. The league even had no byes in week 13. The physical battering takes its toll. The Patriots likely will get Brendan Schooler, Khyiris Tonga, and Jared Wilson back, but must wait until the final game of the season to get Will Campbell and Milt Williams back. The team cannot come out of the gate slowly, like they have so many times this year. This isn’t the lowly Jets they are playing; this is the team that has won the division for 5 straight years.
The Patriots must be able to run the ball. The weather is already bad, and a run game will keep the opposing Defense honest. It will take time off the clock and limit the number of offensive opportunities that Josh Allen and the Bills’ Offense will get. Dominating the line of scrimmage will go a long way to determining the outcome. The Patriots must show the same kind of physicality they had in the Giants game. The Bills’ pass rush has been the worst in the league over the past 4 games. Drake Maye from a clean pocket has been devastating. The Bills are likely to keep a spy linebacker in to try and limit Maye’s scrambling ability. If they do that, it may open up other opportunities for the Pats’ Wide Receivers.
It appears that Jared Wilson will be back from his high ankle sprain. I hope he is up for it. If not, Ben Brown has filled in very well; in fact, PFF thinks that Brown has done a superior job to that of Wilson. We saw good pass blocking from Vederian Lowe, but he needs to step up in his run blocking. The Patriots still have two more games with him as the starter after Sunday.
The Patriots forced three turnovers against the Bills in week 5. They are near the bottom of the league in creating turnovers. It will be a must to win the turnover battle.
I see no reason why the Patriots shouldn’t win this game at home. The crowd will be behind the team, and it will be a raucous environment. I’m excited for the Patriots to get rid of that moniker that they have just beat up on weak opponents, and that they are a product of the historically weak schedule. It’s incredibly difficult to win 10 games in a row, and the Patriots have not been given enough credit for it.
The bottom line is I like the Patriots at home. They have the benefit of having the bye week to scout the Bills and heal up. They should have done some self-scouting and see how they can improve in the Red Zone on both sides of the ball.
Sunday should be fun. Go Pats 31-30!
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