Can Patriots End Bills’ Reign and Clinch AFC East This Sunday?
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Can the Patriots make it 11 wins in a row and lock up the AFC East division crown for the first time since 2019? Entering the week at 11-2, they are in an excellent position for their stretch run to secure the division and a top AFC seed.
But the Bills, who have won the division for the past five years, are not going to go gentle into that good night. Buffalo was on the ropes at home last week in the snow against Cincinnati before rallying behind Josh Allen and a defense that caused multiple turnovers in the fourth quarter.
The Patriots will have their hands full in this matchup, as the Bills looked very good against the Bengals last week. They know that if the Patriots win, they sweep the season series and clinch the division.
Perhaps they discounted the Patriots in Week 5, during the first meeting in Buffalo. They won’t this time.
This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with J.J. Watt as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will provide analysis from the sidelines.
The game is also carried on 98.5 The Sports Hub. Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.
So, let’s quickly get to the matchups.
The Patriots’ running game has struggled for much of the year. So has Buffalo’s run defense. It is kind of a weakness-on-weakness this week, although the Bills’ run defense has looked a bit better.
Look for Josh McDaniels to scheme up some plays, looking for some chunk yardage from TreVeyon Henderson, who has come on in the second half of the season. Rhamondre Stevenson has battled a toe injury, and the bye week hopefully did him some good.
The Bills’ defense misses Ed Oliver. But can the Patriots take advantage enough to dominate? Doubtful, but they will stick with the run to open up play-action passing.
The Patriots’ passing game has been excellent this season, as Drake Maye is an MVP candidate. He can attack all three levels of the field and can extend plays with his feet as well as scramble for yardage.
In the first matchup, the Bills played coverage in the first half and tried to blitz Maye in the second half, which was a mistake, as Maye carved them up for nearly 180 yards after halftime. Look for the Bills to drop seven into coverage and force Maye to hit his spots.
This seems like a Stefon Diggs, Hunter Henry-type game for the offense. My “X” factor in the passing game is Mack Hollins, who didn’t have a catch (the only time this season) in the game and wasn’t targeted.
Next up is the Bills offense.
The Patriots’ run defense is currently the #3 unit in the NFL. They have allowed only 89.5 yards per game, and should be getting Khyiris Tonga back this week.
Buffalo’s running game is #1 in the league with James Cook and Josh Allen leading the way. They average 157.8 yards per game. The Bills love to run to the weak side of the formation, allowing Cook to cut back, allowing for big chunk plays at the second level.
Look for the Patriots to attack and try to penetrate the offensive line, especially on early downs, to take away the cutback lanes. Not having Milton Williams, who had a big game in Week 5 hurts, but getting Tonga back will surely help.
The Bills have the reigning MVP from a year ago, and against the Bengals, Allen looked the part. While the Bills passing game isn’t as explosive as years past it is still a tough matchup because of their excellent pair of tight ends with Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid.
Buffalo likes to use them crossing the middle of the field, an area that the Patriots defense has struggled. However, with Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, and Marcus Jones, the Patriots’ secondary has the tools to lock up the receivers and slow down the passing game.
Of course, the pass rush has to have gap discipline in this one, if they rush past Allen, he’ll take off and hurt them or extend plays with his legs.
The Patriots’ special teams gets the slight advantage over the Bills here, especially being at home. Marcus Jones is the guy who can change the entire complexion of the game with his return ability. The Bills will be cognizant of his strengths and try to take that away.
The team should also get ace special teamer Brandon Schooler back for this week’s game.
The Patriots have the opportunity to unseat the Bills as division champions for the first time since 2019 with a win on Sunday. This one should go right down to the wire again.
This one should be more high-scoring than the first one. Some interesting tidbits:, Josh Allen is 15-1 in his last 16 December games. Mike Vrabel’s teams are 6-0 coming off the bye week. The Bills average 33.4 points scored at home, but that number falls to 23.7 on the road.
I think both quarterbacks will excel in this one, but the Patriots (underdogs) will pull off the upset with a last-minute stop.
Patriots 31-27
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Pats RB vs Bills D… Bills have shutdown opponent run games in the last 3 weeks. So they are on a roll there. The pats have not run the ball most of the year. Especially in the “money” short yardage areas. It would be a pleasant surprise if the pats run the ball with any semblance of run/pass balance Sunday. Interesting is the Bills play nickel as there base D. I wonder how much of their run D issues are correlated to playing extra DBs. Certainly injuries have been a noted factor. Also interesting to see if the Pats get… Read more »