This week will be the biggest test for the young upstart Patriots this season. Are they Contenders or Pretenders? The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a legitimate contender in the NFC. The Bucs come into the game with two big advantages. They are playing at home in warm and humid conditions which they are use to and New England traditionally doesn’t play well in Florida’s heat and humidity. The second big advantage is that they are coming off a BYE and have been able to rest up, prepare for two weeks, and heal up some of their walking wounded. So far in 2025, teams are 10-4 coming off their bye week. The Bucs are one of the worst teams in the Red Zone, scoring a TD in only 50% of their chances.
Offense 3 WR 1TE
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| QB | Baker Mayfield | Teddy Bridgewater | – | – |
| RB | Bucky Irving Q | Rachaad White | Sean Tucker | Josh Williams |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | Sterling Shepard | Jalen McMillan IR | |
| WR | Chris Godwin Q | Ryan Miller | Mike Evans IR | – |
| WR | Tez Johnson | Kameron Johnson | Jaden Smith IR | |
| TE | Cade Otton | Payne Durham | Devin Culp | Ko Kieft IR |
| LT | Tristan Wirfs | Graham Barton | – | |
| LG | Ben Bredeson | Elijah Klein | Dan Feeney | – |
| C | Graham Barton | Ben Bredeson | – | |
| RG | Luke Haggard Q | Elijah Klein | Mike Jordan | Cody Mauch IR |
| RT | Charlie Heck | Ben Chukwuma | Luke Goedeke IR |
Led by Baker Mayfield at Quarterback, the Bucs have shot out to a 6-2 record. Offensively, they are mediocre with a ranking of 17th in the league with 323 yards per game. The passing game is slightly above average with a 13th rank and 224.9 yards per game. Rushing, they are 24th at 98.1 yards per game. In the Spin Zone QB rankings, he is 10th, and the ESPN QBR is 15th.
Mayfield has completed 172 passes on 269 attempts for 1,919 yards, 63.9 Comp%, a 7.1 average, 13 TDs, 2 INT, and has been sacked just 17 times. He has also ran 22 times for 153 yards and a 7.2 YPC. This, despite the rash of injuries the Bucs have sustained. Bucky Irving has played just 4 games; Mike Evans is on IR and is out with a broken collarbone until week 14 at the earliest, December 7th. Chris Godwin has been slow to recover from off-season ankle surgery and has played in just 2 games. Irving, Godwi,n and Hassan Reddick are still listed as Questionable, and all three Did Not Participate in Wednesday or Thursday’s practices.
Rookie Emeka Egbuka has benefited from just being around savvy veterans like Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. He has been like a sponge soaking up the knowledge the Vets are sharing with him. The talented receiver is leading the TB receivers in receptions with 34 on 63 targets, 562 yards, 16.5 YPC, and 5 TDs. Egbuka was Tampa Bay’s 1st round selection this year (19). At Ohio State, he was 2nd Team All-Big 10, 2x Third Team All-Big 10, and a national Champion. Veteran Sterling Shepard is 32 and entering his 10th year in the league. The Oklahoma product stand 5’10” 194-pounds and was drafted by the NY Giants in 2016 2nd round (40). Shepard is 2nd with 27 catches on 36 targets, 275, 10.2 YPC, and 1 TD. Tez Johnson has emerged as the #3 receiver. The 5’10”, 165-pound receiver was quite the find by the Bucs taking him in this year’s draft 7th round (235). He played at Troy and Oregon.
With Bucky Irving going down with a foot strain and a shoulder injury, Tampa Bay’s running game has gone down with him. Irving is a terrific back out of Oregon. He is a 5’10” 195-pound back and just 23 years old. He was selected by Tampa Bay in the 4th round (125) of the 2024 Draft and was 2nd team All-PAC 10. As a rookie last season, he played in 17 games and started 3 of those. Over the course of the season, after increasing his workload and taking over for Rachaad White, he had 207 attempts for 1,122 yards, 5.2 YPC, and 8 TDs. Out of the backfield, he was also a threat with 58 catches and 392 yards, 8.3 YPC, and no TDs.
Rachaad White is not the answer. The 6’, 214-pound back out of Arizona State was selected in the 2022 draft by Tampa Bay in the 3rd round (91). He lost the starting job last year after having rushed for 990 yards the previous season. So far this year, he rushed 77 times for 237 yards, a 3.7 YPC, and 4 TDs. The Patriots are the #1 defense against the run this year, not having allowed a single runner 50 yards in a game this year. There is no reason that shouldn’t continue and make the Bucs a one-dimensional team.
Sean Tucker is the primary backup. The Syracuse product went undrafted in 2023. The 5’10”, 205-pound back was a Unanimous All-American, 1st team ALL-ACC, and also a 2nd team All-ACC selection. For the season, he has rushed 23 times for 76 yards and a 3,3 YPC with 2 TDs.
Tight End Cade Otton is a threat, especially given how badly the Patriots have covered TEs. The 6’5” 247-pound TE out of Washington was TB 4th round (106) selection in the 2022 draft. For the season, he is third on the team with 26 receptions on 36 targets for 271 yards, 10.4 YPC, and without a TD. Tampa Bay is one of the worst teams in scoring TDs in the Red Zone (50%). Backups Payne Durham and Devin Culp don’t have any catches listed.
The Offensive line is a problem for the Bucs. Tristan Wirfs is a standout Left Tackle. Entering his 6th season, Wirfs had his worst game of the year two weeks ago versus New Orleans. This should be a good matchup between Wirths and K’Lavon Chaisson. The 6’5”, 312-pound Tackle was selected 2x 1st team All-Pro, 2nd team All-Pro, 4x Pro Bowl, and was a Super Bowl Champion. He was drafted by Tampa Bay with their 1st pick (13) in 2020 out of Iowa. His PFF grade is 78.8 good for 13th. On the season, he has given up 0 sacks, 0 QB Hits, 28 Hurries, and 10 Pressures.
LG Ben Bredeson is the weak link on the line. The 6’5”, 315-pound Guard played at Michigan and was drafted in 2020 in the 4th round (143) by Baltimore. His PFF grade is very low, 49.8, good for 98th. On the season, he has given up 1 sack, 0 QB Hits, 16 Hurries, and 17 Pressures.
Graham Barton is the Center. The North Carolina product was drafted as a Guard. The 6’5z’. 314-pound lineman was drafted by Tampa Bay with their 1st round selection (26) in the 2024 Draft. His PFF grade is 53.2, 34 out of 34 Centers. Right Guard is Luke Haggard, an UDFA out of Indiana. The 6’7”, 291-pound Guard is tall and a little light for the position. His PFF grade is 51.8 is 90th for guards. For the season, he has given up 0 sacks, 0 QB Hits, 3 Hurries, and 3 Pressures in the four games he has played.
Charlie Heck is currently listed as the starter, pending Luke Goedeke’s availability. The 6’8”, 311-pound Tackle was a 2020 4th round (126) selection out of North Carolina by Houston. His PFF grade in the 6 games he has played in Goedeke’s absence is an anemic 45.5. That is ranked 70th of 75 tackles.
Luke Goedeke has started his 21-day workout period, coming back from IR. He has not officially been activated, but was a full participant on Wednesday. The 6’5,” 312-pound Tackle out of Central Michigan was a 2022 selection by Tampa Bay in the 2nd round (37). Follow his progress this week to determine if he will play. If he is able to go, that will be a big bump for Baker Mayfield and the Bucs Offense. The Patriots’ interior D linemen should have a field day against the Bucs Center and Guards. Look for Milt Williams and Christian Barmore to have big games,
Defense 3-4
The Tampa Bay defense is not highly ranked, but they are dangerous. They are ranked tied for 5th with 12 takeaways. They are also ranked 5th in EPA per play at -0.08. Overall, they are 17th, giving up 323 yards a game, 13th in passing yards allowed per game with 224.9, and in Run Defense, they are 24th, giving up 98.1 per game.
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| LDE | Elijah Roberts | C.J. Brewer | Calijah Kancey IR | – |
| NT | Vita Vea | Elijah Simmons | – | – |
| RDE | Logan Hall | Greg Gaines | – | – |
| WLB | Yaya Diaby | Chris Braswell | David Walker IR | |
| LILB | SirVocea Dennis | John Bullock | – | |
| RILB | Lavonte David | Deion Jones | ||
| SLB | Haason Reddick Q | Anthony Nelson | Markees Watts | |
| LCB | Jamel Dean | Benjamin Morrison | – | – |
| SS | Antoine Winfield Jr. | Christian Izien | Sebastian Castro | JJ Roberts IR |
| FS | Tykee Smith | Kaevon Merriweather | Rashad Wisdom IR | – |
| RCB | Zyon McCollum | Kindle Vildor | Josh Hayes | |
| NB | Jacob Parrish Q | – |
Who are these Tampa Bay Defenders? There are not many household names that are familiar to Patriots fans. Elijiah Roberts, a rookie is the LDE in their 3-4 Defensive alignment. The 3-4 DE’s are more like DTs in this alignment. The 6’4” 295-pound DE played at SMU and Tampa Bay took him in the 5th round (158). His PFF grade is 61.9, 74th amongst DEs. For the season, he has made 8 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 2 Hurries.
Vita Vea is a load at 6’4”, 347-pounds. The University of Washington product came out in the 2018 Draft, 1st Round (12) by Tampa Bay. His PFF grade is 67.9 good for 48th. For the season he has 18 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 3 QB Hits, and 17 Hurries. Logan Hall is the RDE. The 6’6”, 283-pound DL played at Houston. He was selected in the 2022 Draft 2nd round (33) by Tampa Bay. His PFF grade is 58,1 good for 72nd amongst DL. For the season he has 15 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1, QB Hit and 9 Pressures.
I’ll add Greg Gaines, since Vita Vea is taken out of the game on 3rd and long passing downs. Gaines is 6’ 1”, 312-pounds and he also played at Washington. He was selected in the 2019 draft 4th Round (134) by the LA Rams. His PFF grade is 41.9 which is 180th amongst all DL. For the season he has 5 Tackles, 1 Sack, 1 QB Hit and 4 Pressures.
Yaya Diaby leads the Linebacker group. The 3rd year backer stands 6’3”, 263-pounds out of Louisville. He was selected by Tampa Bay in the 2023 draft 3rd round (83). His PFF grade is 67 good for 66th. On the season he has 24 Tackles, 6 Sacks, 4 QB Hits, and 18 Pressures. SirVocea Dennis is second on the team in Tackles. The 6’, 226-pound ILB played at Pittsburgh. He was selected in the 2023 Draft 5th Round (155) by Tampa Bay. His PFF Grade is 45.9, 132nd amongst all LB. For the season he has 59 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 2 QB Hits and 7 Pressures.
Lavonte David is nearly 36 years old. The 13-year veteran stands 6’ 1”, 233-pounds out of Nebraska was selected by Tampa Bay in the 2012 Draft 2nd round (58). In his illustrious career he has been selected to 1st Team All Pro, 2x 2nd Team All Pro, Pro Bowl, 2 x 1st team All-American, 1st Team All-Big 12, 1st Tea, All-Big 10, and Super Bowl Champion. His PFF grade is 55.8 good for 105th. For the season he has 57 Tackles, 3 sacks, 2 QB Hits, and 5 Pressures.
Hassan Reddick is not expected to play the 6’1” 240-pound Backer out of Temple was selected in the 1st round (13) of the 2017 Draft by Arizona. His PFF Grade is 58,9 good for 1232nd amongst all LBs. For the season he has 16 Tackles, 2 Sacks, 2 QB Hits and, 23 Pressures. His likely replacement should be Anthony Nelson, who was Defensive Player of the Week in week 8 versus New Orleans. He had two sacks, INT for a TD and a Forced Fumble in the game. The 6’7”, 271-pound LB played at Iowa and was selected in the 2019 Draft 4th Round (107) by Tampa Bay. His PFF grade for the season is 75.4, 35th amongst all Linebackers. For the season he has 21 Tackles, 3 Sacks, 1 QB Hit, and 6 Pressures.
The key to the Tampa Bay Defense is their secondary. I don’t care what the rankings and advanced metrics say, this is the best secondary Drake Maye and the Patriots will see all year. It starts with Jamel Dean, the number 1 rated CB according to PFF. The 6’1”, 206-pound DB played at Auburn. He was selected by TB in the 2019 Draft with the 3rd (194) pick. His PFF grade is 90.7 #1, he has 24 Tackles, 1 sack, 1 QB Hit, 0 Hurries, 6 PBU’s, 3 INT, and 1 Forced Fumble. Antoine Winfield is Strong Safety. The 5’ 10”, 203-pound S played at Minnesota and was selected in the 2nd round (45) in the 2020 Draft by Tampa Bay. His PFF grade is 72.1 which is 17th amongst all safeties. On the season he has 41 Tackles, 1 Sack, 2 QB Hits, 4 Hurries, 1 INT, and a Forced Fumble. Tykee Smith plays the Free Safety. The 5’10” 205-pound Safety played at Georgia and was selected in the 2024 draft, 3rd round (90) by Tampa Bay. His PFF grade is 77.5, good for 6th. On the year he has 66 Tackles, and 2 sacks. Zyon McCollum is the RCB. The 6’2” 199 DB from Sam Houston State was selected in the 2022 draft, 5th round (157) by Tampa Bay. His PFF Grade is 73.7, good for 23rd. He has 42 Tackles on the season.
The Nickel Back is no slouch either. Jacob Parrish was a player I had my eye on in this year’s draft for the Patriots. The 5’10”, 198-pound DB ran a 4.38 40-yard-dash at the combine. The rookie was selected with Tampa’s 3rd Round (84) selection. His PFF grade is 67 good for 33rd amongst all CBs. He has 41 Tackles, 2 sacks, 1 QB Hit on the season. They will all blitz from anywhere. The worst ranked DB has 33 ranking! That is incredible. I suspect they will load the box and turn the Patriots into a one-dimensional team and allow their secondary to make plays. Another point is the high number of players the Bucs have drafted and developed. The secondary was all drafted by Tampa Bay.
Special Teams
| Starter | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | |
| PK | Chase McLaughlin | – | – | – |
| P | Riley Dixon | – | – | – |
| H | Riley Dixon | – | – | – |
| PR | Kameron Johnson | Rachaad White | Tez Johnson | |
| KR | Sean Tucker | Josh Williams | Emeka Egbuka | Kameron Johnson |
| LS | Evan Deckers |
Chase McLaughlin is having a fine season. He is ranked 5th in the league converting 17 of 21 FG attempts (81,9%) and 16 of 17 Extra Point attempts.
Riley Dixon is the 26th ranked Punter with a 38.4 Net Average.
Kameron Johnson is 5th with 13,8 Yards Per Return.
Sean Tucker has been the principal Kickoff returner but has a very low 36th rank and 24.3 Yards Per Return.
Anatomy of Drake Maye’s Sacks
This per Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald. Drake Maye has been sacked the second most times (34) in the league this season. However, 7 of those sacks were on scrambles where he just ran out of bounds. In addition to that, 11 other sacks can be attributed to Maye stepping up or running up the middle into a sack. Maye has been coached to be risk-averse, and that it is ok to take a sack rather than throw the ball into a tight window. Those 18 sacks averaged just 2 yards apiece. He is giving his team a chance by not forcing the ball.
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Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.
Seems McDaniels/Vrabel are OK with some of the sacks while Maye learns, and this is given points are going up on the board sufficent to win games, and Maye is also making a ton of plays while holding the ball a bit longer. Interesting that on the 6 sacks last week, I heard Maye completed a first down strike after 4 or 5 of those sacks. In other words he erased the impact of the sack. He did hold the ball to long a few times, however, he’s 23 and has just eclipsed a full season’s worth of games. And… Read more »